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quo vadis Online
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Post: #21
RE: attendance by conference
(01-05-2020 11:21 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Big 12 Fans Narrative: Our schools make more money than your schools do...

Anyone with a brain that apparently doesn’t believe big 12 propaganda:

If you have a pie and cut it into 10 pieces versus cutting the same pie into 12 or 14 pieces,
the 10 pieces are going to always be bigger.

Sure, but that assumes that all gross-revenue pies are naturally the same but some conferences luck out and get to cut their pie into bigger slices.

But that's a shaky assumption, because presumably, a conference adds teams because it thinks they can grow per-team revenue, not shrink it. The idea is that yes, with 14 teams my percentage of the pie is smaller than when we only had 12 teams, but the pie itself will be bigger thanks to the new schools so overall, my slice of the new 14-team pie will be in gross money larger than my slice of the old 12-team pie was.

I mean, the Big 12 didn't *want* to get cut from 12 teams to 10, that happened against their will. Likewise the B1G and SEC and ACC weren't forced to expand to 14 schools, they all did that willingly, to enhance per-team revenue.

So the fact that the Big 12 has proven able to generate close to the same overall revenues as conferences with more teams, thus giving them slices of pie that are larger, speaks to the value of their teams.
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2020 11:33 AM by quo vadis.)
01-05-2020 11:32 AM
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Post: #22
RE: attendance by conference
Agreed!!
01-05-2020 12:34 PM
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DawgNBama Offline
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Post: #23
RE: attendance by conference
(01-04-2020 10:06 PM)bullet Wrote:  Top 20 schools 4 year average:
Michigan 111,063 Big10
Ohio State 105,026 Big10
Penn State 104,532 Big10
Alabama 101,556 SEC
LSU 100,350 SEC
Texas A&M 99,256 SEC
Texas 96,170 Big12
Tennessee 94,399 SEC
Georgia 92,764 SEC
Nebraska 89,595 Big10
Auburn 85,903 SEC
Oklahoma 85,842 Big12
Florida 85,393 SEC
Clemson 80,753 ACC
Notre Dame 78,082 Ind
Wisconsin 77,952 Big10
South Carolina 76,774 SEC
Michigan State 71,889 Big10
Washington 67,679 Pac12
Florida State 67,513 ACC

Bottom 20 schools (Note Idaho was 11,566 their last 4 years in FBS, better than 3 schools on this list)
Texas State 16,456 SB
Buffalo 16,410 MAC
Miami, OH 16,400 MAC
Eastern Michigan 16,343 MAC
Georgia State 16,184 SB
Florida Atlantic 15,920 CUSA
Western Kentucky 15,708 CUSA
MTSU 15,673 CUSA
Bowling Green 15,340 MAC
Florida International 15,159 CUSA
New Mexico State 14,849 IND
San Jose State 14,819 MWC
Central Michigan 14,329 MAC
Louisiana-Monroe 13,569 SB
Coastal Carolina 13,538 SB
UNC Charlotte 12,531 CUSA
Kent State 12,506 MAC
Massachusetts 11,275 IND
Northern Illinois 10,308 MAC
Ball State 9,475 MAC

A lot of those numbers do not surprise me, but some do. NMSU is located pretty much in the El Paso Metropolitan Area, but draws horribly!! I understand that UTEP is a big draw but still, it isn't like there that much to do around Las Cruces, NM or El Paso, TX. The Aggies need to replace whoever markets their football teams, and get someone who can. Also, the Aggies need to join preferably the Mountain West Conference, but failing that once again, needs to see what they can do to get the Sunbelt to take them again.
As for NIU, that is a surprise as well considering how football crazy Chicago is. NIU needs to get their name out there more often.
UMass should have a lot more support than the numbers show. Maybe they can talk to the Patriots about playing some games in their stadium, especially when BC is on the road.
CMU stands out to me as well, but I'm attributing that to the poor coach that they had in the past.
01-05-2020 01:00 PM
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DawgNBama Offline
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Post: #24
RE: attendance by conference
As for the Pac 12, the NFL purposefully sabotaged them in forcing two teams to relocate to a city that didn't really want them. Once Dean Spanos finally gets a clue, and sells the Chargers to Shalid Khan, UCLA and USC should go up some in attendance. Getting into Berkeley or UCLA is about like getting into UVa, UNC, or Georgia Tech. Very difficult to do, and although I'm sure California has a lottery, they don't have a Hope Scholarship like Georgia, Florida, Tennessee do. The California schools that are required to take more of your average students would be your Cal State schools (think Fresno, San Diego State, and SJSU) and they aren't getting in anytime soon unless Governor Gavin Newsome and the California legislature does some serious arm twisting. UC-Davis is also an intriguing possibility. In addition, the Pac12 Network is a total flop and needs to be completely redone, preferably with a well established tv partner like ESPN/ABC, Fox, CBS/CBSSN, or NBC.
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2020 01:25 PM by DawgNBama.)
01-05-2020 01:22 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #25
RE: attendance by conference
New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.
01-05-2020 01:25 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #26
RE: attendance by conference
(01-05-2020 11:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 11:21 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Big 12 Fans Narrative: Our schools make more money than your schools do...

Anyone with a brain that apparently doesn’t believe big 12 propaganda:

If you have a pie and cut it into 10 pieces versus cutting the same pie into 12 or 14 pieces,
the 10 pieces are going to always be bigger.

Sure, but that assumes that all gross-revenue pies are naturally the same but some conferences luck out and get to cut their pie into bigger slices.

But that's a shaky assumption, because presumably, a conference adds teams because it thinks they can grow per-team revenue, not shrink it. The idea is that yes, with 14 teams my percentage of the pie is smaller than when we only had 12 teams, but the pie itself will be bigger thanks to the new schools so overall, my slice of the new 14-team pie will be in gross money larger than my slice of the old 12-team pie was.

I mean, the Big 12 didn't *want* to get cut from 12 teams to 10, that happened against their will. Likewise the B1G and SEC and ACC weren't forced to expand to 14 schools, they all did that willingly, to enhance per-team revenue.

So the fact that the Big 12 has proven able to generate close to the same overall revenues as conferences with more teams, thus giving them slices of pie that are larger, speaks to the value of their teams.

The overall revenue within the Big 12 is handicapped by T3 revenue which is not shared. Media money for each school breaks down about like this 36 million for media for all schools and additional ~3 million for everyone not named Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. An additional 5 million for Kansas, an additional 7 million for OU, and an additional 15 million for Texas.

So unlike any of the other P4 conferences Texas makes 51 million off of media, Oklahoma makes 43 million, Kansas makes around 41, and everyone else gets 39 million or a little less.

So Big 10 schools at 54 made around 3 million more than Texas did last year, not enough to cause movement for the Horns. Oklahoma made as much as the SEC and Kansas was close enough. The rest of them still made more than anyone in the ACC and PAC.

Now think about that. TCU and Texas Tech and Kansas State, and Baylor and Iowa State and West Virginia and Oklahoma State were making more TV media money than Washington, Stanford, Oregon, U.S.C., Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, and Virginia Tech and doing so by at least 7 million more per school.

This is why they Big 12 fan bases weren't too concerned about revenue. Neither Texas nor Oklahoma were far enough behind to force movement and everyone else was overpaid by comparison.

The new SEC contract and I'm sure the Big 10's new contract coming in 2025 have and will change that. Texas wouldn't move for 3 million. Well the SEC will be making at least 66 million a year by 2024. And the Big 10 should be right there as well by 2025. Will Texas move for 10 million or 15 million which is roughly where everyone's escalators might put the revenue? That's 100 to 150 million for a decade? That's a whole different question. Then look at Oklahoma. Would they move for 20 million more a year (200 million for a decade)? If either of those are compelled to move the rest except possibly Kansas lose out.

The PAC is isolated geographically and somewhat politically. The wide gap probably doesn't affect them. The ACC is bound by GOR until 2037 so they have a legal deferment on movement until then. So the irony here is that the best paid of the remaining 3 is the most vulnerable.
01-05-2020 01:33 PM
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SkullyMaroo Offline
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Post: #27
RE: attendance by conference
(01-05-2020 01:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.

FBS teams are supposed to average 15,000 every two seasons already, but the NCAA doesn’t enforce that rule. But even if something like this was enforced, as long as tickets sold can count as the attendance figure then schools will find a way to average “20,000” or whatever number you make that be, within reason of course.
01-05-2020 02:16 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #28
RE: attendance by conference
Eastern Michigan seemed to cook their books for them to stay at 15,000 for some years. I do not believe they got an average of over 16,000 attendance.
01-05-2020 02:31 PM
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Post: #29
RE: attendance by conference
(01-05-2020 02:16 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 01:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.

FBS teams are supposed to average 15,000 every two seasons already, but the NCAA doesn’t enforce that rule. But even if something like this was enforced, as long as tickets sold can count as the attendance figure then schools will find a way to average “20,000” or whatever number you make that be, within reason of course.

We just need rigorous accounting by an independent auditor to enforce it. That will help cull the scroungers and bottom feeders.
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2020 03:02 PM by quo vadis.)
01-05-2020 03:01 PM
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Love and Honor Offline
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Post: #30
RE: attendance by conference
(01-05-2020 01:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.

Question: what makes 20K the magic number, and why should attendance be the sole determinant of a move down to FCS? Should FCS programs who meet the 20K threshold be able to automatically move up?
01-05-2020 03:31 PM
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Post: #31
RE: attendance by conference
(01-05-2020 03:31 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 01:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.

Question: what makes 20K the magic number, and why should attendance be the sole determinant of a move down to FCS? Should FCS programs who meet the 20K threshold be able to automatically move up?

It's reflective of the likely economic strength of the Athletic Department.

For instance every G5 program receives a minimum of 25% subsidy and no P5 program receives 25% subsidy.

Right now that subsidy line is the de facto separation point between the P5 and G5. I think realistically there should be a line of demarcation between the FCS and the G5 and that threshold should be higher. I'd say even 25,000 in attendance. There simply is a great deal of difference between the AAC/MWC and the rest of the G5 in terms of economic strength and to a degree the ability to compete.
01-05-2020 04:18 PM
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Post: #32
RE: attendance by conference
(01-05-2020 01:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.

BIG won't like that relative to playing MAC teams. And getting out of the awful ESPN MACNation deal might help.
01-05-2020 05:54 PM
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Post: #33
RE: attendance by conference
(01-05-2020 04:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 03:31 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 01:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.

Question: what makes 20K the magic number, and why should attendance be the sole determinant of a move down to FCS? Should FCS programs who meet the 20K threshold be able to automatically move up?

It's reflective of the likely economic strength of the Athletic Department.

For instance every G5 program receives a minimum of 25% subsidy and no P5 program receives 25% subsidy.

Right now that subsidy line is the de facto separation point between the P5 and G5. I think realistically there should be a line of demarcation between the FCS and the G5 and that threshold should be higher. I'd say even 25,000 in attendance. There simply is a great deal of difference between the AAC/MWC and the rest of the G5 in terms of economic strength and to a degree the ability to compete.

I'm not seeing it so much with the MWC anymore.

Utah flipping to the PAC really hurt them. With the PAC expanding to 12 its more P5 scholarships out west plus BYU who is no longer on board with MWC and is a strong recruiting competitor.

Struggles the PAC is having nationally also forces them to rely more on the talent in their backyard which makes the pool of players to draw on even that much more thin for the MWC. Speaking of thin talent out west, Boise has made a killing dominating the recruiting battles over its G5 peers which has in turn made most of the MWC not relevant.

AAC of course is a different animal. They've got teams located in great recruiting metros. Corporate sponsorship and facilities on a different level.
01-06-2020 02:31 AM
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Post: #34
RE: attendance by conference
(01-05-2020 05:54 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 01:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.

BIG won't like that relative to playing MAC teams. And getting out of the awful ESPN MACNation deal might help.

Not very much ... it's not tremendously easy to get people to roll out to home games in Northeast Ohio, Northwest Ohio, Michigan, West Upstate NY in November in any event. At OSU, TSUN or Penn State, their surplus demand for seats masks the way that relative demand for those seats changes over Fall semester.

And of course the MACtion deal tends to help recruiting, so there is always the prospect that some popular player that came to a Mac school to get on the TV machine draws more fans to the games in September and October.

To be sure it's a net drag, but it's easy to overstate how much of a drag it is ... Lake Erie / Lake Michigan weather in November is the bigger drag, and that's not going away, no matter what TV or streaming media contract is worked out.

I'm just happy the Golden Flashes are on the upswing so that we have a serious hope of merely being very bad in another year or two, climbing out of the obscenely bad range.
(This post was last modified: 01-06-2020 04:03 AM by BruceMcF.)
01-06-2020 03:57 AM
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Post: #35
RE: attendance by conference
(01-05-2020 01:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The overall revenue within the Big 12 is handicapped by T3 revenue which is not shared. Media money for each school breaks down about like this 36 million for media for all schools and additional ~3 million for everyone not named Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. An additional 5 million for Kansas, an additional 7 million for OU, and an additional 15 million for Texas.

So unlike any of the other P4 conferences Texas makes 51 million off of media, Oklahoma makes 43 million, Kansas makes around 41, and everyone else gets 39 million or a little less.

So Big 10 schools at 54 made around 3 million more than Texas did last year, not enough to cause movement for the Horns. Oklahoma made as much as the SEC and Kansas was close enough. The rest of them still made more than anyone in the ACC and PAC.

Now think about that. TCU and Texas Tech and Kansas State, and Baylor and Iowa State and West Virginia and Oklahoma State were making more TV media money than Washington, Stanford, Oregon, U.S.C., Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, and Virginia Tech and doing so by at least 7 million more per school.

This is why they Big 12 fan bases weren't too concerned about revenue. Neither Texas nor Oklahoma were far enough behind to force movement and everyone else was overpaid by comparison.

The new SEC contract and I'm sure the Big 10's new contract coming in 2025 have and will change that. Texas wouldn't move for 3 million. Well the SEC will be making at least 66 million a year by 2024. And the Big 10 should be right there as well by 2025. Will Texas move for 10 million or 15 million which is roughly where everyone's escalators might put the revenue? That's 100 to 150 million for a decade? That's a whole different question. Then look at Oklahoma. Would they move for 20 million more a year (200 million for a decade)? If either of those are compelled to move the rest except possibly Kansas lose out.

The PAC is isolated geographically and somewhat politically. The wide gap probably doesn't affect them. The ACC is bound by GOR until 2037 so they have a legal deferment on movement until then. So the irony here is that the best paid of the remaining 3 is the most vulnerable.

KU gave up/ sold its Tier 3 rights, along with the other schools in the Big 12 (except OU and UT) in the recently signed deal with ESPN+. The deal also includes the rights for ESPN to broadcast three Big 12 Conference championship games which makes it difficult to break out the value of the Tier 3 rights from the value of the championship games. It is clear, that KU would be getting a lot less than $5M/year in the new deal. The deal does not seem to be financially beneficial to KU and some of the other schools in the conference.
01-06-2020 08:09 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #36
RE: attendance by conference
(01-05-2020 03:31 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 01:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.

Question: what makes 20K the magic number, and why should attendance be the sole determinant of a move down to FCS? Should FCS programs who meet the 20K threshold be able to automatically move up?

20,000 is a nice round number, and IMO it represents a thresshold of support for a "major" level football program.

It's hard to justify claiming top-level status when you're not drawing more than some FCS teams do.
01-06-2020 10:19 AM
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Post: #37
RE: attendance by conference
(01-06-2020 03:57 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 05:54 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 01:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.

BIG won't like that relative to playing MAC teams. And getting out of the awful ESPN MACNation deal might help.

Not very much ... it's not tremendously easy to get people to roll out to home games in Northeast Ohio, Northwest Ohio, Michigan, West Upstate NY in November in any event. At OSU, TSUN or Penn State, their surplus demand for seats masks the way that relative demand for those seats changes over Fall semester.

And of course the MACtion deal tends to help recruiting, so there is always the prospect that some popular player that came to a Mac school to get on the TV machine draws more fans to the games in September and October.

To be sure it's a net drag, but it's easy to overstate how much of a drag it is ... Lake Erie / Lake Michigan weather in November is the bigger drag, and that's not going away, no matter what TV or streaming media contract is worked out.

I'm just happy the Golden Flashes are on the upswing so that we have a serious hope of merely being very bad in another year or two, climbing out of the obscenely bad range.

I haven't seen any evidence that the ESPN deal helps MAC recruiting. Probably because the recruits see the empty stands on Tuesday nights.

In NIU's defense, 4 of the 5 home games it rained. The other game was in November, on a Tuesday night of course. But our fanbase does stink outside of that.
01-06-2020 11:32 AM
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Post: #38
RE: attendance by conference
(01-05-2020 04:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 03:31 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 01:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.

Question: what makes 20K the magic number, and why should attendance be the sole determinant of a move down to FCS? Should FCS programs who meet the 20K threshold be able to automatically move up?

It's reflective of the likely economic strength of the Athletic Department.

For instance every G5 program receives a minimum of 25% subsidy and no P5 program receives 25% subsidy.

Right now that subsidy line is the de facto separation point between the P5 and G5. I think realistically there should be a line of demarcation between the FCS and the G5 and that threshold should be higher. I'd say even 25,000 in attendance. There simply is a great deal of difference between the AAC/MWC and the rest of the G5 in terms of economic strength and to a degree the ability to compete.

But those are questions for the individual school admins, their boards and other stakeholders. Not the NCAA. The only justification for the NCAA to interfere is if one subdivision was growing too large for competitive purposes.

As far as your 25K threshold. You need to take a look at the level you'd be pushing them into. Only about 20 of the 125 FCS schools even break the 10K level mark. Georgetown averaged 1,840 in 2018, maybe we should force them into Div II.

Also, Rutgers subsidy percentage is pretty close to 30%. But subsidy percentage shouldn't be the de facto separation point for anything.
01-06-2020 01:17 PM
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Post: #39
RE: attendance by conference
(01-06-2020 01:17 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 04:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 03:31 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 01:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.

Question: what makes 20K the magic number, and why should attendance be the sole determinant of a move down to FCS? Should FCS programs who meet the 20K threshold be able to automatically move up?

It's reflective of the likely economic strength of the Athletic Department.

For instance every G5 program receives a minimum of 25% subsidy and no P5 program receives 25% subsidy.

Right now that subsidy line is the de facto separation point between the P5 and G5. I think realistically there should be a line of demarcation between the FCS and the G5 and that threshold should be higher. I'd say even 25,000 in attendance. There simply is a great deal of difference between the AAC/MWC and the rest of the G5 in terms of economic strength and to a degree the ability to compete.

But those are questions for the individual school admins, their boards and other stakeholders. Not the NCAA. The only justification for the NCAA to interfere is if one subdivision was growing too large for competitive purposes.

As far as your 25K threshold. You need to take a look at the level you'd be pushing them into. Only about 20 of the 125 FCS schools even break the 10K level mark. Georgetown averaged 1,840 in 2018, maybe we should force them into Div II.

Also, Rutgers subsidy percentage is pretty close to 30%. But subsidy percentage shouldn't be the de facto separation point for anything.

There is a big difference in sports sponsorship requirements between Division I and Division II. There are almost no remaining Division II schools that look anything at all like a Division I school. Mostly they are small regional state universities. FCS is the catchall for the Division I basketball schools who aren't FBS level football. That includes schools like Montana and Illinois State as well as schools like Presbyterian and Houston Baptist. There's a broad range.
01-06-2020 02:02 PM
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RE: attendance by conference
(01-06-2020 10:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 03:31 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  
(01-05-2020 01:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  New NCAA rule proposal: If you average less than 20k over a rolling 4-year period, you are demoted from FBS to FCS.

Question: what makes 20K the magic number, and why should attendance be the sole determinant of a move down to FCS? Should FCS programs who meet the 20K threshold be able to automatically move up?

20,000 is a nice round number, and IMO it represents a thresshold of support for a "major" level football program.

It's hard to justify claiming top-level status when you're not drawing more than some FCS teams do.

Why does fan support matter at all? If you're willing to sponsor the requisite number of scholarships and sports at a particular level, then you should be allowed to compete.
01-06-2020 02:04 PM
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