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MCanaday9 Offline
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Conference Standings Predictions
Hear ye Hear ye tis the annual time for CONFERENCE STANDINGS PREDICTIONS!!! This year will be ALOT harder to predict due to the injuries and underproduction of WAC Non-Con. Except for Seattle LY, and to a smaller extent Cal Baptist, there weren't any real surprises. This year will be a lot more unpredictable, so I'm excited for the season!!!
Make sure to include the BOLD prediction!


NMSU 12-4 (I'll naively/ignorantly/dumbly take the field in the WAC tourney... I know I know)
UMKC 10-6 (They'll make their FIRST/LAST WAC Finals appearance at WACVegas)
GCU 10-6 (They lose in the 1st round of WACVegas)
Cal Baptist 10-6 (Theybeat NMSU for a 2nd straight year)
CSU-B 8-8 (They sweep a team with a winning record)
UVU 8-8 (hey're not going to lose to GCU at WACVegas for a 3rd straight-year ( yeah I know, not that bold))
Seattle 8-8 (Idk a damn thing about them but I'll predict they get swept by someone below them in the standing)
UTRGV 5-11 (They win a road game against a team who ends up with a winning record)
Chicago St 1-15 (hey gonna get that W!)

With the season not starting yet, I won't even go into tiebreakers... But I feel pretty good about #WACChaos.


What say you folks?!?!?!?
12-29-2019 06:24 PM
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edinburger Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
(12-29-2019 06:24 PM)MCanaday9 Wrote:  What say you folks?!?!?!?

I think this year any team has at least a fighting chance against any other. They've all had some strong showings (sometimes in the form of a close loss to a ranked team) and they've all had some bad nights.

1/2 NMSU vs CBU
3/4/5 UMKC vs UVU vs GCU
6/7/8 SU vs UTRGV vs CSUB
9 CSU
12-29-2019 07:49 PM
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Trod0 Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
NMSU goes 28-6 into the NCAA tournament.
Chicago State ends up in last place.
(This post was last modified: 12-29-2019 08:19 PM by Trod0.)
12-29-2019 08:18 PM
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dancingNMSUaggie Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
4 losses for NMSU in the WAC? No way. I think 15-1 is probably gonna happen again.
12-30-2019 10:32 AM
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MCanaday9 Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
(12-30-2019 10:32 AM)dancingNMSUaggie Wrote:  4 losses for NMSU in the WAC? No way. I think 15-1 is probably gonna happen again.

They aren't going 15-1.

$5 Venmo- I get 13-3 and worse, you get 15-1/16-0 and we push for 14-2.

Deal?
12-30-2019 09:18 PM
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NMSUPistolPete Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
NMSU still has some inconsistency in the post. However, the complexion of the Aggie guard situation has vastly improved over the last week or two; with the return of AJ Harris and Clayton Henry and the addition of Evan Gilyard. It isn't inconceivable that NMSU could go undefeated in WAC play this season. Under Jans, NMSU has gone 12-2 and 15-1 in conference play over the last two seasons. And, those two prior seasons the WAC was much stronger than it is currently. Granted, NMSU is only 9-6 this season. So, it can be argued that this Aggie team is nowhere as strong as a season ago. But the addition of Harris, Henry, and Gilyard has yet to be quantified. It is likely, this Aggie team is every bit as strong as last season's team with these late arrivals. Only time will tell.
12-30-2019 11:55 PM
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FINALFOUR1970SWEETSIXTEEN1992 Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
(12-30-2019 11:55 PM)NMSUPistolPete Wrote:  NMSU still has some inconsistency in the post. However, the complexion of the Aggie guard situation has vastly improved over the last week or two; with the return of AJ Harris and Clayton Henry and the addition of Evan Gilyard. It isn't inconceivable that NMSU could go undefeated in WAC play this season. Under Jans, NMSU has gone 12-2 and 15-1 in conference play over the last two seasons. And, those two prior seasons the WAC was much stronger than it is currently. Granted, NMSU is only 9-6 this season. So, it can be argued that this Aggie team is nowhere as strong as a season ago. But the addition of Harris, Henry, and Gilyard has yet to be quantified. It is likely, this Aggie team is every bit as strong as last season's team with these late arrivals. Only time will tell.


Everything that happened before Mississippi State is now thrown out the window. This is a totally different basketball team with Harris and Gilyard running the point.
12-31-2019 03:24 AM
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FINALFOUR1970SWEETSIXTEEN1992 Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
(12-30-2019 09:18 PM)MCanaday9 Wrote:  
(12-30-2019 10:32 AM)dancingNMSUaggie Wrote:  4 losses for NMSU in the WAC? No way. I think 15-1 is probably gonna happen again.

They aren't going 15-1.

$5 Venmo- I get 13-3 and worse, you get 15-1/16-0 and we push for 14-2.

Deal?

NMSU beat Mississippi State on the road. There is no team in the WAC who would come close to beating Mississippi State. NMSU will go 16-0.
12-31-2019 03:25 AM
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FINALFOUR1970SWEETSIXTEEN1992 Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
New Mexico State held a very good scoring Mississippi State squad to 52 points and at one point led 45-31 with less then 10 minutes left in that game. We held Northern NM to just 30 points. NMSU defense is going to be scary good.
12-31-2019 03:32 AM
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NMSUPistolPete Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
My gut tells me that this current version of the Aggies (the addition of Harris, Henry, and Gilyard) are capable of running the table and go undefeated the rest of the way in the WAC. However, I still have my concerns with consistency in our interior scoring. Because of this, I do think NMSU is still vulnerable for a unforeseen loss or two in the WAC. In any case, the CBU game will be a good telling point to see where this Aggie team lies right now.
12-31-2019 12:03 PM
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PojoaquePosse Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
No way NMSU goes anything worse than 14-2 this season. It’s almost impossible to win every conference game. But I expect 15-1 or 16-0. Our team looks COMPLETELY different with our “new” additions. This is the team all the pundits were saying could have a monster season and make some NCAA tourney noise. Factor in a very down year for the WAC and I like our chances of dominating the conference...again.
12-31-2019 12:50 PM
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edinburger Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
Not going to deny that NMSU is strongly favored to win the regular season but I don't think it's the 15-1 or 16-0 slam dunk some of you are predicting.

The following are all based on KenPom, apologies in advance for any mistakes.

Ranked by best win (by opponent rank)

1. NMSU over Mississippi St 54
2. UMKC over Toledo 104
3. CBU over UC Irvine 113
4. UTRGV over Sam Houston 144
5. UVU over North Dakota St 150
6. Seattle over Portland 203
7. GCU over Illinois St 221
8. CSUB over Montana St 230
9. CSU over SIUE 346

Ranked by least-worst loss (by opponent rank)

1. NMSU (to Wash St 141)
2. CBU (to Cal 191)
3. UMKC (to McNeese St 284)
4. UTRGV (to TAMUCC 294)
5. Seattle (to Florida A&M 323)
6. UVU (to Denver 325)
7. CSUB (to Idaho 329)
8. CSU (to Alabama St 337)
9. GCU (to Davenport DII)

Ranked by least-worst stomping (in points)

1. CBU by 20 pts to Cal 191
2. GCU by 25 pts to San Diego St 20
3. NMSU by 30 pts to Arizona 16
4. CSUB by 30 pts to San Franciso 99
5. UTRGV by 31 pts to Creighton 47
6. UVU by 31 pts to Colorado St 135
7. Seattle by 31 pts to Wash St 141
8. UMKC by 41 pts to Kansas 2
9. CSU by 64 pts to Eastern Ill 189

Ranked by strength of schedule

1. UTRGV 58
2. UMKC 60
3. NMSU 94
4. CSUB 109
5. CSU 134
6. GCU 236
7. UVU 253
8. Seattle 285
9. CBU 351

Ranked by performance vs top 50 teams. All losses, of course.

1. UVU (by 8 to Kentucky 14)
2. UTRGV (by 10 to Texas Tech 33, by 31 to Creighton 47)
3. GCU (by 12 to Illinois 45, by 25 to San Diego St 20)
4. CSUB (by 15 to Texas Tech 33, by 28 to Gonzaga 6)
5. UMKC (by 18 to OK St 41, by 18 to Iowa St 43, by 41 to Kansas 2)
6. Seattle (by 22 to Wash 46, by 26 to St. Mary's 25)
7. NMSU (by 30 to Arizona 16)
8. CSU (by 44 to Purdue 12, by 57 to Florida St 21)
9. CBU did not play any top 50 teams.
12-31-2019 02:45 PM
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RoosHouse Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
(12-31-2019 12:50 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  No way NMSU goes anything worse than 14-2 this season. It’s almost impossible to win every conference game. But I expect 15-1 or 16-0. Our team looks COMPLETELY different with our “new” additions. This is the team all the pundits were saying could have a monster season and make some NCAA tourney noise. Factor in a very down year for the WAC and I like our chances of dominating the conference...again.

Roos are unbeaten at home and pretty crappy on the road. Should be tough but I would still say at CBU and at UMKC, NMSU would be like 2-3 point favorites.
12-31-2019 04:12 PM
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PojoaquePosse Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
You all are seeing NMSU through the lens of our injuries. We are not the same team. I won’t continue to beat a dead horse. I’ll let the play of the Aggies do the talking for me.
12-31-2019 04:46 PM
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NMSUPistolPete Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
At semester change the following rosters changed...

Cal Baptist
Loss
KaJuan Hale, G, transferred

Grand Canyon
Loss
JJ Rhymes, F, season ending injury
Jaylen Fisher, G, went Pro rather than RS.
Oscar Frayer, F, Still ineligible
Gain
Mikey Dixon, G, became eligible

New Mexico State
Loss
Robert Brown, F, transferred
Jihaun Westbrook, G, transferred (was redshirting 2019)
Gain
AJ Harris, G, return from injury
Clayton Henry, G, return from injury
Evan Gilyard, G, became eligible

UT Rio Grande Valley
Gain
Sean Rhea, F, became eligible

Utah Valley
Loss
Jacob Heese, G, transferred
(This post was last modified: 12-31-2019 05:16 PM by NMSUPistolPete.)
12-31-2019 05:07 PM
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PojoaquePosse Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
(12-31-2019 05:07 PM)NMSUPistolPete Wrote:  At semester change the following rosters changed...

Cal Baptist
Loss
KaJuan Hale, G, transferred

Grand Canyon
Loss
JJ Rhymes, F, season ending injury
Jaylen Fisher, G, went Pro rather than RS.
Oscar Frayer, F, Still ineligible
Gain
Mikey Dixon, G, became eligible

New Mexico State
Loss
Robert Brown, F, transferred
Jihaun Westbrook, G, transferred (was redshirting 2019)
Gain
AJ Harris, G, return from injury
Clayton Henry, G, return from injury
Evan Gilyard, G, became eligible

UT Rio Grande Valley
Gain
Sean Rhea, F, became eligible

Utah Valley
Loss
Jacob Heese, G, transferred

Even more important is the three returning Aggies were all starters last year.
12-31-2019 05:26 PM
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edinburger Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
Nice to see all the NMSU build-up. That'll make it so much sweeter when...well, your first game wil be a good test, away at CBU. Just like last year. I assume this time you'll be taking CBU a little more seriously.
12-31-2019 06:52 PM
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Trod0 Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
(12-31-2019 04:46 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  You all are seeing NMSU through the lens of our injuries. We are not the same team. I won’t continue to beat a dead horse. I’ll let the play of the Aggies do the talking for me.

People don’t understand the magnitude of our injuries and looking at our record. We started the season with (4) of our last year started injured. Brown, Ivan, Harris and Henry. Ivan just started looking healthy for about 2 weeks now, brown is still injured. Harris and Henry just got cleared and only have a game under their belt. Now we add Gilyard, a 2 year starter and leading scorer. All this and we still managed to have a winning out of conference record while beating a P5 school. Most of our losses were lost in the final 2 minutes of the games too, due to no depth. Most teams in the country couldn’t survive having a total of that many starters injured let alone any team in the WAC! Once we start firing on all cylinders there is no team in the WAC within 15 points of us. We own the WAC, we’re all these schools super bowl game.
12-31-2019 08:09 PM
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Country_Wisdom_359 Offline
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
(01-01-2020 11:59 AM)Country_Wisdom_359 Wrote:  
(12-31-2019 08:09 PM)Trod0 Wrote:  
(12-31-2019 04:46 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  You all are seeing NMSU through the lens of our injuries. We are not the same team. I won’t continue to beat a dead horse. I’ll let the play of the Aggies do the talking for me.

People don’t understand the magnitude of our injuries and looking at our record. We started the season with (4) of our last year started injured. Brown, Ivan, Harris and Henry. Ivan just started looking healthy for about 2 weeks now, brown is still injured. Harris and Henry just got cleared and only have a game under their belt. Now we add Gilyard, a 2 year starter and leading scorer. All this and we still managed to have a winning out of conference record while beating a P5 school. Most of our losses were lost in the final 2 minutes of the games too, due to no depth. Most teams in the country couldn’t survive having a total of that many starters injured let alone any team in the WAC! Once we start firing on all cylinders there is no team in the WAC within 15 points of us. We own the WAC, we’re all these schools super bowl game.

I think everyone understands that NMSU is going to be more like last year’s squad now that your core players are back from injuries. It’s great for the program and fans and likely will ensure yet another conference championship. You all have a right to be excited about your team and post season prospects. You’re probably right about having another dominant year. One day perhaps others will catch up with you, but likely about the same time you guys move on to the MWC. Your basketball is clearly ready; get football in line and you’re outta here. The WAC is becoming more of a developmental conference with all of the D2 move ups. It reminds me of the Sun Belt in football.

It sucks for those of us who are Canyon fans. We were on an upward trajectory a couple of years ago, and the trend hasn’t been good since. Sometimes you just get the injury bug and now we have ineligible players. Jaylen was always a long shot once he was ineligible the first semester. Now that Oscar can’t play I expect that he will likely leave and play elsewhere next year hoping for more exposure. While Lopes fans will always support their team, I think all of us have tempered expectations and just hope to survive the rest of the season. We clearly have recruitment and development issues. However, If they play like they did in their last game before the holiday break, maybe they’ll keep things interesting. Not expecting another conference tournament final appearance.

Many teams are looking better than they did last season. Conference time will let things all shake out and we will see who rises to the top. Likely the Aggies. I’m not fully convinced that CBU is the next best team but that’s why they play the games. They have the firepower to prove my assertion wrong.

The conference look is changing. With UMKC and CSUB leaving there will be new rivalries and new faces. Tarleton and Dixie will take a few years to get up and going but they are going to have great natural rivals with UTRGV and UVU respectively. I look forward to the decreased geographical footprint.
01-01-2020 12:05 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Online
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RE: Conference Standings Predictions
(12-31-2019 12:03 PM)NMSUPistolPete Wrote:  My gut tells me that this current version of the Aggies (the addition of Harris, Henry, and Gilyard) are capable of running the table and go undefeated the rest of the way in the WAC. However, I still have my concerns with consistency in our interior scoring. Because of this, I do think NMSU is still vulnerable for a unforeseen loss or two in the WAC. In any case, the CBU game will be a good telling point to see where this Aggie team lies right now.

If CBU is healthy and playing good defense, they can win the WAC regular season title. Ty Rowell, their best three point shooter, went down with a knee injury in the UCR game and I have not read a report on his status. He has not played since that game.

For CBU, they need to be locked in defensively. When they play well defensively, they can beat anyone in the WAC. CBU leads the WAC in scoring, rebounding, three point shooting and assists. At times defensively they have just not looked good. Their bench is not deep enough or is just developing. NMSU has a deeper bench and is the best team defensively in the WAC. I think CBU has the best starting five in the WAC.

I think NMSU will win the WAC because of their depth and defense, but I think CBU has a shot if they can stay healthy and consistent on defense. If Rowell is out, then someone else has to step up and I don't know if there is anyone ready to replace his role off the bench.
01-01-2020 01:01 PM
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