(12-23-2019 10:44 AM)DooX Wrote:  Going into the NC game, the 2017 team had two fairly consistent weaknesses from my vantage point. First, the OL had been decimated by injuries and we struggled to both run and pass protect (against better defenses, at least). There were at least two 3rd stringers starting and almost everyone other than Mac Patrick was playing out of position. Second was WR drops. Between Alls and Stapleton, there nearly always seemed to be a couple of balls that hit the ground that shouldn't have. Both of these weaknesses had a hand in the loss.

I don't see either of those being issues this year. The OL has generally played well, and I can't even think of a really bad dropped ball off the top of my head.

The fairly consistent weaknesses I see this year are KO coverage and in the secondary matching up man-to-man. Another concerns that has seemed to manifest itself recently are a rash of PF penalties. Need to clean this stuff up or at least minimize the damage.

I agree on the 2017 OL by the time of the NC game, which was a mess. Starting the 2017 NC game were 3 OL that started out the season on the 2 deep:
-Then rFr Bethea at LG.
-Then true Fr Fornadel at RG.
-rSr Nick Edwards at RT.
All 3 could be considered out of position, esp since Fornadel and Bethea are at OT now, and Edwards had made his 1st 9 starts that season at RG. Bethea and Fornadel started out the season on the 2 deep, and Edwards would have been if he wasn't part of the group suspended for the 1st 3 games, so none were considered 3rd string.

Were 2 not playing out of position:
-All CAA/AA Aaron Stinnie- started all 15 games at LT.
-Patrick- started all 15 games at OC.

Injured during 2017
-Projected starting RT rSo Chavious goes down during summer camp.
-RG rSo Gerren Butler (started 1st 4 games) goes down for the season vs Maine.
-LG rSr AJ Bolden (started 1st 12 games) goes down playoffs vs SBU.
-Jackson (2nd team All CAA & HERO Sop AA) goes down in the qtrfinals vs Weber. NC vs NDSU Jakcson didn't start, wasn't 100%, yanked 2nd qtr after personal foul.

If you go all the way back to summer camp, JMU basically ended up starting at one point or another everyone on the projected 2 deep excepted for OC.

NDSU (15-0/8-0) vs teams ranked at the time NDSU is 9-0, JMU is 8-0.
W Butler 57-10
W UND 38-7
W @ #18 UD 47-22
W #4 UCD 27-16
W @ #10/6 ILSU 37-3
W #10 UNI 46-14
W Missouri St 22-0
W @ #3 SDSU 23-16
W @ YSU 56-7
W WIU 57-21
W S Dakota 49-14
W @ -/#25 SIU 21-7____
W #19 Nicholls St 37-13 (2nd round playoffs)
W #13/14 ILSU 9-3 (Quarterfinals)
W #5 MT St 42-14 (Semifinals)

(12-24-2019 12:09 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  NDSU (15-0/8-0) vs teams ranked at the time NDSU is 9-0, JMU is 8-0.
W Butler 57-10
W UND 38-7
W @ #18 UD 47-22
W #4 UCD 27-16
W @ #10/6 ILSU 37-3
W #10 UNI 46-14
W Missouri St 22-0
W @ #3 SDSU 23-16
W @ YSU 56-7
W WIU 57-21
W S Dakota 49-14
W @ -/#25 SIU 21-7____
W #19 Nicholls St 37-13 (2nd round playoffs)
W #13/14 ILSU 9-3 (Quarterfinals)
W #5 MT St 42-14 (Semifinals)

All I see is their relative cakewalk in their 3 playoff games. We played #s 14,6 & 4 to reach the finals.

(12-24-2019 12:59 AM)olddawg Wrote:  

(12-24-2019 12:09 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  NDSU (15-0/8-0) vs teams ranked at the time NDSU is 9-0, JMU is 8-0.
W Butler 57-10
W UND 38-7
W @ #18 UD 47-22
W #4 UCD 27-16
W @ #10/6 ILSU 37-3
W #10 UNI 46-14
W Missouri St 22-0
W @ #3 SDSU 23-16
W @ YSU 56-7
W WIU 57-21
W S Dakota 49-14
W @ -/#25 SIU 21-7____
W #19 Nicholls St 37-13 (2nd round playoffs)
W #13/14 ILSU 9-3 (Quarterfinals)
W #5 MT St 42-14 (Semifinals)

All I see is their relative cakewalk in their 3 playoff games. We played #s 14,6 & 4 to reach the finals.

Or #11, #6, #3 (depending on which polls/seeds)

(12-23-2019 06:21 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  Refs swallowed their whistles as much as they could. Holding is one of those things that happens on every single play in football. I refuse to believe Daka and Carter got contained as well as they did without a plethora of holds. I’m ok with them letting the guys play. Limit the whistles to egregious things.


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Yeah I'd agree with this for the most part. Refs weren't calling much of anything on either team in the Weber game, which probably contributed to how things got a little chippy a few times. But yeah, their QB was saved by holds a million times and both teams could've had a few DPI's and defensive holds called that were let go. They were letting them play for sure... Which like you said, you could find a hold to call on just about every play if you wanted. I like to see it called if it actually prevented a sack or tackle but that wasn't always the case against Weber.

(12-24-2019 02:59 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  

(12-23-2019 06:21 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  Refs swallowed their whistles as much as they could. Holding is one of those things that happens on every single play in football. I refuse to believe Daka and Carter got contained as well as they did without a plethora of holds. I’m ok with them letting the guys play. Limit the whistles to egregious things.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah I'd agree with this for the most part. Refs weren't calling much of anything on either team in the Weber game, which probably contributed to how things got a little chippy a few times. But yeah, their QB was saved by holds a million times and both teams could've had a few DPI's and defensive holds called that were let go. They were letting them play for sure... Which like you said, you could find a hold to call on just about every play if you wanted. I like to see it called if it actually prevented a sack or tackle but that wasn't always the case against Weber.

At least the no-calls on the holds were pretty balanced. It's frustrating when they let something go all game long and then start calling it. Thankfully they didn't do that this game. However, some of the holds were pretty blatant... on both sides. Gillispie has been the one called for the most lately and that has be concerned going into Frisco. He could have been called for holding a lot more than he was.

I'll take refs holding their whistles any day over flags for everything as long as they are consistent and calling it the same way all game long. Far too many games have been decided on a referee decision. I really hope that doesn't happen in this coming game.

(12-24-2019 09:37 AM)JMad03 Wrote:  

(12-24-2019 02:59 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  

(12-23-2019 06:21 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  Refs swallowed their whistles as much as they could. Holding is one of those things that happens on every single play in football. I refuse to believe Daka and Carter got contained as well as they did without a plethora of holds. I’m ok with them letting the guys play. Limit the whistles to egregious things.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah I'd agree with this for the most part. Refs weren't calling much of anything on either team in the Weber game, which probably contributed to how things got a little chippy a few times. But yeah, their QB was saved by holds a million times and both teams could've had a few DPI's and defensive holds called that were let go. They were letting them play for sure... Which like you said, you could find a hold to call on just about every play if you wanted. I like to see it called if it actually prevented a sack or tackle but that wasn't always the case against Weber.

At least the no-calls on the holds were pretty balanced. It's frustrating when they let something go all game long and then start calling it. Thankfully they didn't do that this game. However, some of the holds were pretty blatant... on both sides. Gillispie has been the one called for the most lately and that has be concerned going into Frisco. He could have been called for holding a lot more than he was.

I'll take refs holding their whistles any day over flags for everything as long as they are consistent and calling it the same way all game long. Far too many games have been decided on a referee decision. I really hope that doesn't happen in this coming game.

Gillespie and Fornadel each got called for a hold on Weber's AA DE #94. On the one Fornadel got called on, #94 was litterally throwing punches at Fornadel. Looked like it should have been a double penalty right there. And things were definitely getting chippy between #94 and Gillespie.

(12-24-2019 02:59 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  Refs weren't calling much of anything on either team in the Weber game

Penalties:
Weber 0-0 yards
JMU 7-74 yards

Points Scored Per Game
#2 JMU 41.4 PPG
#7 NDSU 37.9 ppg

Points Yieldeded Per Game
#1 NDSU 11.8 ppg
#3 JMU 14.9 ppg_________________________________________________

Total Offense:
#6 NDSU 477.3 ypg
#9 JMU 472.5 ypg

Rushing Offense
#4 NDSU 288 ypg
#10 JMU 248.3 ypg

Passing Offense
#56 JMU #56 224.1 ypg
#90 NDSU 189.3 ypg_____________________________________________

Total Defense
#1 JMU 264.7 ypg
#2 NDSU 269.9 ypg

Rushing Defense:
#1 JMU 61.1 ypg
#30 NDSU 135.6 ypg

Passing Defense
#1 NDSU 134.3 ypg
#38 JMU 203.6 ypg ______________________________________________

FG:
JMU 25 for 31, 80.6%
NDSU 13 for 19, 68%

Kick Returns
#2 JMU 25.0 ypr/1 TD.
#8 NDSU 23.9 ypr/1 TD

Kick Coverage:
#51 JMU 19.35 ypr/2 return TDs given up.
#53 NDSU 19.46 ypr/0 return TDs given up.

Punt Returns
#16 JMU 12.74 ypr/1 TD
#21 NDSU 11.67 ypr/0 TDs

Punt coverage:
#25 JMU 5.67 ypr/0 return TDs given up
#28 NDSU 5.75 yppr/0 return TDs given up

Net Punting
#45 JMU 36.22 ypp
#49 NDSU 36.08 ypp

Blocked Kicks/Punts
#1 JMU (tied) 9
#107? NDSU (not listed among the 106 schools with at least 1, so must have zero).

Blocked Kicks/Punts Allowed
#17 JMU (tied): 1
#44 NDSU (tied) :2
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs

(12-24-2019 02:24 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  #107? NDSU (not listed among the 106 schools with at least 1, so must have zero).

That’s correct. Earlier on in our run we were much more aggressive on attempting block kicks...and this resulted in too many interrupting the kicker-type penalties and a fresh set of downs for the opponent.

The past 2 head coaches have mostly completely eliminated even attempting to block kicks in favor of the guaranteed possession.

Strength of Schedule (Massey):
JMU – 10th
NDSU – 14th

Total Offense:
NDSU – 6th, 477.3 ypg 75 TDs
JMU – 9th, 472.5 ypg 74 TDs

Scoring Offense:
JMU – 2nd, 41.3 ppg
NDSU – 7th, 37.9 ppg

Passing Offense:
JMU – 56th, 224.1 ypg 31 TDs
NDSU – 90th, 189.3 ypg 29 TDs

Rushing Offense:
NDSU – 4th, 288 ypg 46 TDs
JMU – 10th, 248.3 ypg 43 TDs

Total Defense:
JMU – 1st, 264.7 ypg 27 TDs
NDSU – 2nd, 269.9 ypg 19 TDs

Scoring Defense:
NDSU – 1st, 11.8 ppg
JMU – 2nd, 14.9 ppg

Passing Defense:
NDSU – 1st, 134.4 ypg 9 TDs
JMU – 38th, 203.6 ypg 18 TDs

Rushing Defense:
JMU – 1st, 61.1 ypg 7 TDs
NDSU – 30th, 135.6 ypg 9 TDs

Time of Possession:
JMU – 7th, 33-minute avg
NDSU – 14th, 32-minute avg

Penalties per Game:
JMU – 50th, 76 penalties for 768 yds. 51.2 ypg avg.
NDSU – 65th, 90 penalties for 818 yds. 54.53 ypg avg.

Turnover Margin:
NDSU – 4th, +16. 22 gained, 6 lost.
JMU – 19th, +11. 26 gained, 15 lost.

Sacks:
NDSU – 42 sacks, 12 sacks allowed.
JMU – 46 sacks, 25 sacks allowed.

“Red Area” Offense:
JMU – 5th, 73 for 79. 55 for 79 TDs.
NDSU – 37th, 52 for 62. 41 for 62 TDs.

“Red Area” Defense:
JMU – 14th, 23 for 32. 16 for 32 TDs.
NDSU – 19th, 21 for 29. 11 for 21 TDs.

Pass Efficiency:
NDSU – 1st, Trey Lance R-Fr. 186-277 (67.1%) 28 TDs 0 INTs. 934 yds rushing.
JMU – 2nd, Ben DiNucci R-Sr. 246-345 (71.3%) 27 TDs 5 INTs. 560 yds rushing.

Notes:
Wow this is going to be a good one. Two evenly built, run first and good defense squads. NDSU has the slightest of statistic edges in most categories, but even then, only slightly. Penalties, turnovers, mistake free football will be the difference for the winner. NDSU is younger than JMU, but that doesn’t really apply like it would for any other program in the country. I’d be curious to see how this NDSU squad were to respond if they had to face any semblance of adversity. It looks like they haven’t had much for years now.
Interesting that NDSU has the nation’s best pass D, while we boast the best rush D. We need to somehow force them into penalties and turnovers, while also passing well. Like 2017, we will not win without an effective passing game. NDSU is more penalized and seems to be more penalized then past teams. That is their youth showing.
No matter who wins, they would have earned it outright. Well… hopefully. You know how the FCS goes. Flip a coin. That’s just as likely to predict the winner.

Finally, I wanted to dive into the offensive rankings of each team’s opponents to see if their D stats are in fact legitimate, or are we looking at a paper tiger kind of scenario where they have great D stats against sub-par offenses (ala UNI).

JMU: (Order of ranking: Scoring, Passing, Rushing)
West Virginia (FBS) – 114th, 53rd, 128th
St. Francis – 73rd, 27th, 113th
Morgan State – 108th, 83rd, 97th
Chattanooga – 63rd, 85th, 24th
Elon – 74th, 76th, 100th
Stony Brook – 82nd, 62nd, 22nd
Villanova – 9th, 28th, 27th (Balanced Offense)
William & Mary – 70th, 113th, 30th
Towson – 38th, 41st, 57th (Good, but slightly Un-Balanced Offense)
New Hampshire – 100th, 84th, 72nd
Richmond – 87th, 55th, 80th
Rhode Island – 67th, 13th, 117th
Monmouth – 13th, 23rd, 21st (Balanced Offense)
Northern Iowa – 98th, 93rd, 104th
Weber State – 57th, 91st, 62nd
Average (FCS only) – 67th, 62nd, 66th

NDSU:
Butler – 103rd, 112th, 58th
North Dakota – 62nd, 26th, 96th
Delaware – 86th, 88th, 54th
California-Davis – 52nd, 6th, 92nd
Illinois State – 104th, 118th, 33rd
Northern Iowa – 98th, 93rd, 104th
Missouri State – 120th, 67th, 122nd
South Dakota State – 44th, 82nd, 23rd (Good but un-balanced Offense)
Youngstown State – 37th, 86th, 29th (Good but un-balanced Offense)
Western Illinois – 109th, 73rd, 108th
South Dakota – 38th, 37th, 31st (Balanced Offense)
Southern Illinois – 53rd, 94th, 12th
Nicholls State – 55th, 65th, 25th
Illinois State – 104th, 118th, 33rd
Montana State – 27th, 104th, 8th (Good but un-balanced Offense)
Average – 73rd, 78th, 55th

JMU faced slightly better offenses overall, while facing better passing offenses. Alternatively, NDSU faced better rushing offenses. An argument could be made that each team’s pass or rush D stats are worse in part because they faced better respective offenses.
Defining a top 50 scoring offense as good, JMU faced three good offenses, two being balanced offenses. NDSU faced four good offenses, only one being balanced. The slightest of offensive quality in opponents to JMU. They both faced more offensive mediocrity than not. That’s part of why their Ds are as good as they are.

(12-24-2019 01:23 PM)Polish Hammer Wrote:  

(12-24-2019 02:59 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  Refs weren't calling much of anything on either team in the Weber game

Penalties:
Weber 0-0 yards
JMU 7-74 yards

That stat just confirms how awful the refs were in that semifinal game. Weber was committing penalties. They just weren't calling them.

(12-22-2019 11:48 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  We’re gonna need a bigger stadium..

Careful. You might trigger the Toyota Stadium fan club. It's the greatest stadium and town ever, didn't you know?

(12-22-2019 06:20 PM)Purple Wrote:  He was outrunning MSU defenders by a mile on fly routes yesterday.

Literally everyone in green was outrunning all the bobcats. It was sad how slow their defense was. Some of the worst angles and tackling i've seen watching a football game this season.

Will anyone agree with me that our passing defense has improved overall since the end of the VU game? URI was the best passing team we'd faced all year and they still only scored 2 TDs on our D. One was also a gift from the officials after a terrible PI call that would've forced a punt or FG (i forget which).

(12-23-2019 09:52 AM)Dukester Wrote:  We've not played a good QB lately. Even as a freshman, Trey Lance could be the best QB we have faced this year. He's run for over 1,000 yards, and has not thrown an interception all year. That is fricken amazing.........

Close, but no cigar. 934 yards rushing in 15 games. Still impressive, but not 4 figure impressive.

(12-24-2019 04:06 PM)Potomac Wrote:  

(12-22-2019 11:48 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  We’re gonna need a bigger stadium..

Careful. You might trigger the Toyota Stadium fan club. It's the greatest stadium and town ever, didn't you know?

Eh, doubt anyone has gone that far, but I think the criticisms are way overblown. Its a nice experience at the end of the day, and an intense atmosphere. For the FCS championship, I doubt it changes in the next 10-20 years, so why not enjoy it until we move up?

As far as "bigger" ... right now there are still plenty of seats left at reasonable prices. JMU fans have very little to complain about if they decide not to go this year. Think NDSU will notify their fans about allotment on Dec 30 or 31, and prices could jump then, but if you wait that long, you aren't that eager to go.

(12-24-2019 04:15 PM)Potomac Wrote:  Will anyone agree with me that our passing defense has improved overall since the end of the VU game?

I agree. If our pass D had been as good since the first of the year as it is now, we would have beaten WVU, even with a negative turnover margin.

(12-23-2019 04:21 PM)Dignan Wrote:  I’m a bit worried at the comments I saw on other boards during our last game about how many holds our OL was getting away with. If it’s true, our fortune can depend entirely on how strict an officiating crew is, similar to when we lived on the edge with being extremely physical on pass defense to the point of arriving just slightly early every time. If you catch a crew that calls the penalties it can throw you off your game.

What about all the holding calls that aren't being called on our opponents? I guess those don't also count? It seems that most passing TDs we give up this season has one or two egregious opponent holding calls not called while they scored. Without the holds, we probably would've gotten to their QB and no TD.