(12-20-2019 11:34 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Not much the ACC can do - or perhaps even could've done. With this change, SEC teams will be making, what, $45 to $50M per year on TV rights alone (not including SECN revenues)? How many of the 14 ACC programs are actually worth that much? If the answer is less than 14, then those programs which are worth less are dragging down the revenue of the others. I'm guessing the answer might be only 7 or so teams in the ACC are actually worth what the average SEC team will be paid. That puts the ACC in a very uncomfortable position: the only way to keep the most valuable teams may be to let them have a bigger share of the pie - much like Texas and Oklahoma in the Big XII.
What kind of math is that? The worst the SEC will be making on TV rights will be 62 million per year. We are talking T1 rights here. The old CBS contract was $55 million. The ABC offer is said to be over six times that amount making the baseline $330 million. That means that the SEC media revenue will jump $275 million for T1.
So Mark you divide 275 million by 15 (14 team shares and the 1 share that goes to the conference). Each SEC school will make an additional 18.33 million plus when this goes into effect. It is also possible that the remaining CBS contract will be bought out so it is likely to start sooner than 2024.
The SEC paid out for the 2018 season 43.7 million for all rights. The increase in T1 only will take this to 62 million plus per school after the conference share is accounted for and that doesn't include built in escalators, or consider that it is estimated that this years payout will be ~46 million. It is possible that by 2024 with escalators and including the increase for this year that the payout per school could be $68 million.
I expect that the ACC will jump from 28 million in Media revenue to ~36-37 million within two years. By 2024 you could be making as much as 42 million per school iin payouts. So the issue here will be a gap no less than $20 million in media rights and if greater likely no greater than 26 million. But that is still a massive gap for just media rights. When you add in gate, concessions, licensing, etc, the SEC enjoys an even larger advantage.
That's why I've said I believe this is a precursor of what could turn out to be a move to essentially 2 leagues. How else could the PAC and ACC be motivated to make such a radical change than for the networks to intentionally grow a massive gap between the B1G and PAC and between the SEC and ACC. I suspect FOX if they lose the SEC bid, will make a play for the PAC and use some of their war chest to try to pull the best of the Big 12 into the Big 10 while ESPN does the same with the SEC.
The monetary gap makes it very hard to shoe horn in Texas into the ACC since ESPN would have to raise all current members of the ACC up 20 million x 14 and pro rated value for the 5 N.D. games. The SEC's payout will only cost them a raise to Texas and possibly Oklahoma or Kansas minus the cost of the LHN for Texas.
I'm not sure where we are headed here, but the destabilization is gong to be massive.
Initially I believe we will become a P4, and if the SEC's contract is for 10 years or less then I look for a streamlining of the current 65, especially if pay for play becomes reality, and an eventual emergence of what are essentially two leagues of between 48 to 60 schools formed into 2 leagues with one controlled by FOX and the other by Disney and with revenue ameliorated in the move. I believe the initial large gap will be used to lure out the best brands from the PAC, ACC, and Big 12, and then the league formation will go through a final adjustment phase before reaching the final number, but that's just my taking what is going to be large gaps in revenue between the P5 and logically postulating what likely outcome could come of that. As with all things, we'll see.
RE: TV Rights Craziness 
