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You're about to sign a new quarterback. What are the chances he stays.

For those of you with an Athletic subscription - I couldn't read this article without constantly thinking of Evan Prater (and Ben Bryant). His potential trajectory has been discussed ad nauseam on these boards and I wasn't sure where to post this; in its own thread, in the recruiting forum, off topic. It's new territory for us considering Evan Prater is the #18 QB in the 2020 class.

The Athletic looked at the top 50 quarterbacks from the 2014-2017 classes, stopping at 2017 because those QBs have been in college for 3 years.. I'll try and list a few of the key points from the article:

-So far, 57 percent of those top 50 QBs have transferred from the school they initially signed with. And that percentage will likely increase during this off-season.

-Based on these recent classes, if a top-50 QB signee doesn’t start one game in his first two years on campus, there’s an almost 75 percent chance he’ll end up leaving the program. And even if he does make a start in the first two years, there’s a nearly 45 percent chance he’ll still end up transferring. 101 of the 200 QBs didn't start their first two years in college.. 73 transferred.

-30 of the 200 QBs changed positions and 11 quit either medically or otherwise, which leaves 159 QBs over the 4 years.. 97 transfers, 62 staying where they signed.

-Among all the top 50 quarterback signees from 2014-2017 who elected to transfer, about one-third had to go to junior colleges to try to get back to the FBS level. Of the guys who left Power 5 programs, less than 40 percent ended up on another Power 5 team during their college careers. Close to 30 of these once-touted passers are finishing their careers at the FCS level or lower.

In the end just embrace that we may be in new territory, CLF's goal is to gather as many skilled players as possible that fit their system and know that some may not stick. Hopefully Lichtenberg, Prater, Bryant, and Ridder all find success. Statistics say if they start within their first 2 years here, there's a 44% chance they still transfer.

I once saw a remarkable statistic the substance of which was that the best predictor of NFL success was being a 4-year starter in college. But it's a chicken-or-egg problem. Are they good because they were 4-year starters, or were they 4-year starters because they were just that good? At any rate, you have no future if you can't get into the game, which is why they are desperate to find a place where they can see the field.

I suspect that Joe Burrow winning the Heisman will do little to stem this trend. In UC's case, next fall we will have four quarterbacks exactly one class apart, and a commit who is a senior in high school. That's about as perfect a scenario as you could imagine. Yeah, one or two will likely transfer (I'm not including Sopko, who is a great insurance policy for a program to have), but I can't remember a time when we brought in three consecutive quarterbacks of the pedigree of Bryant, Prater and Lichtenberg. We're positioned to be as successful at QB as we possibly can, and I credit our coaching staff for that.

(12-17-2019 02:33 PM)Former Lurker Wrote:  I once saw a remarkable statistic the substance of which was that the best predictor of NFL success was being a 4-year starter in college. But it's a chicken-or-egg problem. Are they good because they were 4-year starters, or were they 4-year starters because they were just that good? At any rate, you have no future if you can't get into the game, which is why they are desperate to find a place where they can see the field.

Mostly they're 3-4 year starters because they're that good but the current trend is to go where you want to play and if it doesn't work out transfer. You never would have seen Burrow and Haskins go to the same school in the past. Fields would never have gone to Georgia with an entrenched starter like Fromm. Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield all transfers.

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I mean, keep recruiting top shelf talent as much as we can get and let the chips fall where they may. We're certainly not the only program that has to deal with this issue - I'm just glad we're in that club.