RE: Semifinals: #3 Weber St (11-3) @ #2 JMU (13-1), Saturday, 12/21
Strength of Schedule (Massey):
WSU – 4th
JMU – 14th
Total Offense:
JMU – 7th, 472.9 ypg 71 TDs
WSU – 89th, 345.4 ypg 46 TDs
Scoring Offense:
JMU – 2nd, 42.1 ppg
WSU – 51st, 28.8 ppg
Passing Offense:
JMU – 60th, 221.9 ypg 29 TDs
WSU – 90th, 188.8 ypg 19 TDs
Rushing Offense:
JMU – 10th, 250.9 ypg 42 TDs
WSU – 55th, 156.6 ypg 27 TDs
Total Defense:
JMU – 1st, 265.3 ypg 25 TDs
WSU – 23rd, 336.6 ypg 34 TDs
Scoring Defense:
JMU – 3rd, 14.9 ppg
WSU – 14th, 20.1 ppg
Passing Defense:
JMU – 42nd, 204.9 ypg 16 TDs
WSU – 70th, 223.1 ypg 22 TDs
Rushing Defense:
JMU – 1st, 60.4 ypg 7 TDs
WSU – 13th, 113.5 ypg 9 TDs
“Red Area” Offense:
JMU – 6th, 67 for 73. 52 for 73 TDs.
WSU – 24th, 42 for 49. 29 for 49 TDs.
“Red Area” Defense:
JMU – 12th, 22 for 31. 15 for 31 TDs.
WSU – 72nd, 28 for 34. 16 for 34 TDs.
Turnovers:
WSU - +16, 31 gained, 15 lost.
JMU - +11, 26 gained, 15 lost.
Sacks:
JMU – 46 sacks, 23 sacks allowed.
WSU – 44 sacks, 22 sacks allowed.
Passing Efficiency:
JMU – 2nd Ben DiNucci. R-Senior. 227-319 (71.2%) 2,982 yds 25 TDs 5 INTs
WSU – 74th Jake Constantine. Junior. 194-313 (62%) 2,037 yds 13 TDs 10 INTs
Notes:
This game is nearly identical in matchup to UNI just last week. WSU has a marginally better offense compared to UNI, but still looks fairly mediocre overall. Anyone that watched their game last week against Montana knows that Montana was actually the better team throughout most of the game. UM’s 5 INTs and game losing blocked punt TD was the difference in favor of WSU. With half of those mistakes committed, we’d be playing Montana this week instead.
WSU’s offensive “strength” is their 55th ranked rushing game, while they don’t pass as much or as well. This matches up well with our defensive strength. They’ll be facing the nation’s best rushing defense who hasn’t allowed more than 93 yards rushing so far this postseason. Outside of that first Monmouth play of that game, which almost looks fluky in hindsight, JMU’s rushing D has surrendered a net zero rushing yards since that play nearly 2 games ago. We also held URI to -6 rushing yards.
If WSU wants to win, they’re going to have to beat us with their 90th ranked passing attack. Their QB Constantine is passing 62% on the season and has thrown twice as many interceptions as DiNucci, 10 INTs so far. He’s only thrown 13 TD passes on the season too, albeit in 11 games played as the starter. He was out a few games earlier in the season due to injury.
Both teams have excellent defense (although WSU may not be as good statistically as UNI was) and JMU will be tested again on offense this week. However, JMU leads in every statistical category by noticeable margins. One thing WSU is good at is forcing turnovers, just a good as UNI in fact. We have to continue to be careful with the football. 2 turnovers last week was not the performance we need. That DiNucci pick was especially ill-advised when he had a clear TD had he ran it into the corner of the endzone instead.
Similar to UNI last week, as long as we don’t turn the ball over too much and make many bad mistakes all game, WSU doesn’t have the offensive firepower to be too threatening. JMU should win by at least 14 points if our game is clean, no matter how well WSU plays on defense.
If we can play less conservative on offense and not turn the ball over 2 times, also missing 2 FGs, we should win this one much more comfortably next week and start booking our trip to Frisco.
Also, GO BOBCATS!
(This post was last modified: 12-15-2019 12:10 PM by Potomac.)
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Semifinals: #3 Weber St (11-3) @ #2 JMU (13-1), Saturday, 12/21, 6:30 PM, ESPNU
