The next P5 shake up will likely send a few C-USA schools to the AAC to replace what they lost in backfill for the raised P conferences.

My hope is that when that happens C-USA will sit down and hammer out a solution that leaves both of those leagues more regional.

(12-14-2019 06:28 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(12-12-2019 01:22 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  The Sun Belt is likely to finish ahead of CUSA and the MAC in the CFP conference rankings again, which would make it 3 of the last 4 years. This as 4 of the 10 SBC teams had a first-year coach and a 5th had major staff changes.

The Sun Belt's TV contract is supposedly worth more than CUSA (the numbers from neither league has been made public) and the SBC is picking up Saturday ESPN real estate (4 regular-season games). The Sun Belt's CCG also got higher ratings than any G5 league other than the AAC.

IMO the Sun Belt needs to add 2 of Marshall, WKU, Louisiana Tech, and Southern Miss. We could close the gap between the MWC in football with two of those program and put distance between CUSA and the MAC.

Denial ain't just a river.

(12-14-2019 11:25 AM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(12-13-2019 09:23 PM)panama Wrote:  Not being a schools in a one horse town.

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Assume you are throwing in the whole Redneck Riviara along with the bowl site (Conway)? Otherwise Harrisonburg looms much larger. In its own unique way Dirty Myrtle is also a one horse town.

Lol...sure buddy.

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(12-14-2019 10:56 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The next P5 shake up will likely send a few C-USA schools to the AAC to replace what they lost in backfill for the raised P conferences.

My hope is that when that happens C-USA will sit down and hammer out a solution that leaves both of those leagues more regional.

That would be completely unprecedented.

Very few people think big enough to not view it all as a zero sum game.

Orderly realignment could truly produce two better conferences but there is no commissioner, university president, or AD between the two leagues with the gravitas to lead it.

It is more likely that a cluster of schools secede and blow a giant hole in the middle of CUSA and Sun Belt and make a total mess. Think every fantasy map and take the eastern part of the western league and western part of the eastern league to create a new one leaving a group far to the west and one far to the east.

Strike right before the next CFP deal and saber-rattle anti-trust against the NCAA for the new league waiting period being anti-competitive and against the best interests of consumers and see what happens next.

If I had to bet on it, I think the most likely scenario is status quo five years from now.

(12-12-2019 02:25 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I mean they probably should reorganize into the most regionally sensible combination of 2 leagues possible, but there's no financial incentive for the Sun-Belt to add teams and none for C-USA teams to pay the buyout to go to a league that also makes essentially nothing in TV revenue.

You left UAB out unless you are moving them to the AAC or they dropping football again.

I want to be in a conference with UAB. They are the closets G5 to us.

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(12-15-2019 06:15 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(12-12-2019 02:25 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I mean they probably should reorganize into the most regionally sensible combination of 2 leagues possible, but there's no financial incentive for the Sun-Belt to add teams and none for C-USA teams to pay the buyout to go to a league that also makes essentially nothing in TV revenue.

I don't see the point of this. Going from big conference footprint stretched horizontally to one stretched vertically for the eastern Sun Belt teams. For the eastern CUSA teams it's a negligible improvement in travel costs at best.

(12-12-2019 01:22 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  The Sun Belt is likely to finish ahead of CUSA and the MAC in the CFP conference rankings again, which would make it 3 of the last 4 years. This as 4 of the 10 SBC teams had a first-year coach and a 5th had major staff changes.

The Sun Belt's TV contract is supposedly worth more than CUSA (the numbers from neither league has been made public) and the SBC is picking up Saturday ESPN real estate (4 regular-season games). The Sun Belt's CCG also got higher ratings than any G5 league other than the AAC.

IMO the Sun Belt needs to add 2 of Marshall, WKU, Louisiana Tech, and Southern Miss. We could close the gap between the MWC in football with two of those program and put distance between CUSA and the MAC.

It would be like two groups of bums fighting over who gets to live under the overpass and who has to sleep out in the rain.

(12-15-2019 09:07 PM)wavefan12 Wrote:  

(12-12-2019 01:22 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  The Sun Belt is likely to finish ahead of CUSA and the MAC in the CFP conference rankings again, which would make it 3 of the last 4 years. This as 4 of the 10 SBC teams had a first-year coach and a 5th had major staff changes.

The Sun Belt's TV contract is supposedly worth more than CUSA (the numbers from neither league has been made public) and the SBC is picking up Saturday ESPN real estate (4 regular-season games). The Sun Belt's CCG also got higher ratings than any G5 league other than the AAC.

IMO the Sun Belt needs to add 2 of Marshall, WKU, Louisiana Tech, and Southern Miss. We could close the gap between the MWC in football with two of those program and put distance between CUSA and the MAC.

It would be like a two groups of bums fighting over who gets to live under the overpass and whi has to sleep out in the rain.

Oh Toolame...

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(12-13-2019 04:00 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(12-13-2019 03:21 PM)freshtop Wrote:  There are some attractive reasons to consider going back to the Sun Belt, but the biggest negative for me is basketball. C-USA may not always show it on the court, but there are more programs who actually care about being competitive in hoops in C-USA. Too many in SBC treat hoops success as a happy accident. Georgia State was the outlier there, but then they parted ways with Ron Hunter. Not sure how well they will do going forward.

For all the talk that CUSA is more interested in hoops, the results don't just scream that. CUSA has had a bit better outcomes but not significantly so, though I remain extremely grateful to WKU for delivering nad kicks to the western Arkansas Razorbacks.

In basketball in any given period there has never been more than roughly 8 major conferences. At the moment its the P5, BE, AAC and the 8th is split maybe between the A10/WCC.

CUSA has names that had formerly participated in a Top 8 basketball conference which includes WKU in their early days of the SBC. But at the moment they seem too far pushed down the hierarchy regardless of the traditions.

There is also the MWC out there with generally bigger budgets. The MAC which has benefited as the MVC/Horizon have taken membership hits. Then programs that have emerged like Belmont and Wofford for more regional competition.

Based off of RPI, C-USA places 17th and Sun Belt places 20th as a conference. C-USA has been past up by quite a few mid-majors in recent years so the gap between C-USA & the Sun Belt isn't as large as it once was.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

Down about level from where the MAC/MVC are competing at and two full levels down from where the AAC is competing at despite some nice basketball names.

I see college basketball less about conference strength and more about the strength of individual schools. Gonzaga being exhibit #1. A school can go undefeated in nearly any conference and secure a top 3-4 seed - maybe a 1 or a 2. Every school controls their own destiny.

All that to say, ranking conferences doesn’t have as much meaning as it clearly does in football.

(12-16-2019 12:44 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I see college basketball less about conference strength and more about the strength of individual schools. Gonzaga being exhibit #1.

Gonzaga is proof that if you make the NCAA tournament 22 years in a row including 10 times going at least as far as the sweet 16, then after you do that, it no longer matters what conference you're in.

(12-16-2019 02:12 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-16-2019 12:44 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I see college basketball less about conference strength and more about the strength of individual schools. Gonzaga being exhibit #1.

Gonzaga is proof that if you make the NCAA tournament 22 years in a row including 10 times going at least as far as the sweet 16, then after you do that, it no longer matters what conference you're in.

Essentially the one outlier. Brilliant point. Gonzaga did it, so anyone can, right? Hell Boise won some big games coming out of the MWC, so what’s ur team’s problem for not winning a New Years bowl?

Freakin internet

If conference strength didn't matter then Wichita State wouldn't have left the MVC. Gonzaga is still in the WCC because they don't really have any better options. The Big East is too far away. The MWC would be a lateral move. The PAC-12 doesn't seem interested in non-football members. The WCC also cut them a pretty good deal the last time they considered leaving.

(12-16-2019 12:44 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I see college basketball less about conference strength and more about the strength of individual schools. Gonzaga being exhibit #1. A school can go undefeated in nearly any conference and secure a top 3-4 seed - maybe a 1 or a 2. Every school controls their own destiny.

All that to say, ranking conferences doesn’t have as much meaning as it clearly does in football.

I'd say its more the opposite. Usually which ever G5 conference has the highest rated team is normally the highest rated conference. So one team can lift the tide of an entire conference. Boise St did it for the WAC and Appalachian St is now doing it for the SBC. In both cases FBS conferences with less than 12 members so a really strong member improves the SOS.

P5 of course is above all this with a different access point to the bowl system and ability to get 1 for 1 with other P5 programs or cupcake the non-conference schedule with G5/FCS teams. The strength is inherent in the system.

FWIW, Murray St was 30-1 in 2012 and only received a 6th seed to the NCAAs. Any AAC team with that kind of record is going to be a #1 seed. Even a slight difference in conference strength can improve your seed line. That said better teams do make for better conference strength which helps the WCC with Gonzaga in it.

The final regular season composite SOS for football.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

XII 43.51
SEC 45.00
B1G 47.95
PAC 49.99
ACC 59.36
AAC 59.64
MWC 74.95
SBC 81.73
CUSA 91.26
MAC 93.55

The ACC and AAC were about equal in strength yet the ACC has a team in the playoff because Clemson is a top recruiting program, known quantity. Going straight by conference strength they are left out.

Then when comparing MWC/SBC with CUSA/MAC the MWC/SBC had better teams at the top this year (and usually do) which explains their greater strength.

Only in the case of the AAC within the context of the G5 that SOS by itself really makes a difference because it allows them to pick up an access bowl. Its an SOS advantage that is underpinned by a recruiting advantage located in highly talented metros. Plus more investment = better coaches.