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Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-12-2019 12:06 AM)ColumbusCard Wrote:  Twice. Washington last year and USC in like 2017. So the 5-1-2 model doesnt make qualifying for the playoffs any harder for ND than the current one.

And also for the millionth time, ND wants to stay indy. No matter what the postseason situation was or has been, ND has retained its independence. So why do people keep thinking anyone or anything is going to force ND's hand when it comes to joining a conference?


For however long there have been internet message boards (1995?), people have been hoping, wishing and arguing that this NEXT thing will FORCE ND football into joining a conference.
12-12-2019 12:18 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
Look, there are a lot of changes coming in the next 5 years. When they get player's compensation / rights figured out then we have to wait on the new media contracts.

Once the SEC and Big 10 have signed their new rights agreements then we'll know what the lure might be for schools like Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, if there is a lure. We'll know whether the Big 12 gets a bump or hits a wall in terms of revenue as compared to what the SEC and Big 10 are likely to receive. The PAC and the ACC will have to play wait and see to find out really how far behind they will be in terms of revenue.

Within the next 3 or 4 years the ACCN will have been operational long enough to know whether it is the plus they hoped for, or not.

Once those events have passed then we will know if anyone is moving to 16 members or if everyone is staying put.

When all of that is passed then we'll know where the playoffs stand. If the SEC and Big 10 move to 16 then we are likely moving to a P4 and if that becomes a champs only and the conferences move to a semi-final then it will be because the conferences want to own more of their playoff revenue and having semis would come close to doubling their revenue even if they are only worth half as much as their CCG. The Big 10 and SEC would be more likely to favor something that allows them to negotiate their own rates because those two CCG's now are lucrative, more lucrative than moving to a quarterfinal for a CFP expansion. I think 4 P conferences with semis is more likely than seeing an expansion of the CFP to 8 teams. I believe this for 2 reasons. Moving to conference semis doesn't mean their losers are out of the bowls. Moving to an 8 team CFP further reduces the allure of Bowl games period. An 8 team CFP utilize 7 bowls simply makes the other 25 even more irrelevant.

So let's not get the carts before the horses.
Step 1: Settle players status with regards to compensation and rights.
Step 2: Sign the new media contracts.
Step 3: Adjust for any realignment.
Step 4: Keep the current CFP or Redesign it.

All of Steps #1,2,& 3 must be settled before Step #4 can be considered.
12-12-2019 12:26 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-11-2019 10:07 PM)TTT Wrote:  No matter how you cut it, should this 5-1-2 format get adopted it puts ALL independent schools at an inherent disadvantage vs schools IN conferences. That's not an opinion. It's a fact. Yes, Notre Dame still controls their destination being independent BUT there's MUCH less wiggle room vs being in a conf, whether they want to admit it or not.

What does "whether they want to admit it or not" have to do with this discussion?

The point is that despite having a harder path, so long as they have an actual path they will stay independent.

"They want to stay independent" is not about thinking that being independent is an easier path, it's that for ND being independent is an objective in it's own right and a very high priority.

3 years in a row finishing 7th or 8th and locked out ... because they need to be top 6 to have strong confidence of making the playoff ... is (1) on the one hand rather unlikely they keep ending up exactly in that narrow window and (2) not going to induce ND to abandon independence.
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2019 03:56 AM by BruceMcF.)
12-12-2019 03:06 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
PAC's unhappy. Big XII's on a track toward some sort of divorce. Big Ten's studied 16, 18, and 20-member models, specific schools, and never really closed the door on the idea of remaining at 14. Rose Bowl is fine with an expanded playoff it means it gets to be a part of it every year, and the rotation is between quarterfinal or semifinal status (not just NY6 also-ran years). And it gets sweeter if at the quarterfinal level, the game retains the B1G-PAC qualifiers?

Why wouldn't Delany talk up the possibility of conference and playoff expansion?

For Notre Dame, expand the playoff, and it becomes all the easier for them to get in. Expand the pool, chances increase. Dedicate at-large spots, chances remain. The only reason the current model is better for the Irish now is because all four of the spots are at-large and nobody else has automatic qualifier status.
12-12-2019 05:12 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-12-2019 05:12 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Big Ten's studied 16, 18, and 20-member models, specific schools

Source?
12-12-2019 05:22 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-12-2019 12:26 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Look, there are a lot of changes coming in the next 5 years. When they get player's compensation / rights figured out then we have to wait on the new media contracts.

Once the SEC and Big 10 have signed their new rights agreements then we'll know what the lure might be for schools like Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, if there is a lure. We'll know whether the Big 12 gets a bump or hits a wall in terms of revenue as compared to what the SEC and Big 10 are likely to receive. The PAC and the ACC will have to play wait and see to find out really how far behind they will be in terms of revenue.

Within the next 3 or 4 years the ACCN will have been operational long enough to know whether it is the plus they hoped for, or not.

Once those events have passed then we will know if anyone is moving to 16 members or if everyone is staying put.

When all of that is passed then we'll know where the playoffs stand. If the SEC and Big 10 move to 16 then we are likely moving to a P4 and if that becomes a champs only and the conferences move to a semi-final then it will be because the conferences want to own more of their playoff revenue and having semis would come close to doubling their revenue even if they are only worth half as much as their CCG. The Big 10 and SEC would be more likely to favor something that allows them to negotiate their own rates because those two CCG's now are lucrative, more lucrative than moving to a quarterfinal for a CFP expansion. I think 4 P conferences with semis is more likely than seeing an expansion of the CFP to 8 teams. I believe this for 2 reasons. Moving to conference semis doesn't mean their losers are out of the bowls. Moving to an 8 team CFP further reduces the allure of Bowl games period. An 8 team CFP utilize 7 bowls simply makes the other 25 even more irrelevant.

So let's not get the carts before the horses.
Step 1: Settle players status with regards to compensation and rights.
Step 2: Sign the new media contracts.
Step 3: Adjust for any realignment.
Step 4: Keep the current CFP or Redesign it.

All of Steps #1,2,& 3 must be settled before Step #4 can be considered.

This ^ will be the catalyst, JR. When the Big 12 fails to increase payouts significantly some network will encourage some conference to reach out to Oklahoma or Texas and it will be "on".
I fully expect the entire process ( your 4 steps) will be completed before the end of 2025.
Everyone is prepared, battle plans are drawn, we're just waiting for somebody to shoot the Archduke.
12-12-2019 06:00 AM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
I doubt B-12 is sitting around with carash helmets on.
12-12-2019 07:09 AM
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Post: #48
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
5-1-2 is more likely to push the American to expand west than force Notre Dame’s hand.

The American could take SDSU, Boise State, and Air Force and basically own the playoff spot.
12-12-2019 07:47 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
I'm thinking that if Delany is pondering both 16 team conferences and an 8 team playoff he is envisioning four power conferences with the first round of the playoff including the 8 P4 division winners.
12-12-2019 09:38 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-12-2019 03:06 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(12-11-2019 10:07 PM)TTT Wrote:  No matter how you cut it, should this 5-1-2 format get adopted it puts ALL independent schools at an inherent disadvantage vs schools IN conferences. That's not an opinion. It's a fact. Yes, Notre Dame still controls their destination being independent BUT there's MUCH less wiggle room vs being in a conf, whether they want to admit it or not.

What does "whether they want to admit it or not" have to do with this discussion?

The point is that despite having a harder path, so long as they have an actual path they will stay independent.

"They want to stay independent" is not about thinking that being independent is an easier path, it's that for ND being independent is an objective in it's own right and a very high priority.

3 years in a row finishing 7th or 8th and locked out ... because they need to be top 6 to have strong confidence of making the playoff ... is (1) on the one hand rather unlikely they keep ending up exactly in that narrow window and (2) not going to induce ND to abandon independence.

For some weird reason, people don't seem to get this.

That, despite every move it has made since 1991 (NBC contract, partial Big East membership, partial ACC membership) being for the PRIMARY purpose of preserving football independence at all costs.
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2019 10:16 AM by TerryD.)
12-12-2019 10:13 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-12-2019 09:38 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'm thinking that if Delany is pondering both 16 team conferences and an 8 team playoff he is envisioning four power conferences with the first round of the playoff including the 8 P4 division winners.
This presupposes a breakaway of the 4 surviving P conferences where each conferences 2 division winners comprise the 8 team playoff. And it also presupposes that the networks pay those conferences significantly more money than their CCG's get right now in order to accomplish their acquiescence in the matter.

IMO, this is the only pathway to the 8 team CFP model because it does not hamper, but enhances the odds that any team makes it in thereby paving the way for the move to 16 without negatively impacting the usual suspects in each existing conference. And because it makes it clear to each conference that they will be involved every year which is the buy in for the less dominant conferences.

I simply don't see the SEC or Big 10 giving up their CCG's unless they know they get two in and the money is better.

Now whether that winds up being 4 champs and 4 at large, or 8 division champs is a different matter.
12-12-2019 10:25 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-12-2019 10:13 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(12-12-2019 03:06 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(12-11-2019 10:07 PM)TTT Wrote:  No matter how you cut it, should this 5-1-2 format get adopted it puts ALL independent schools at an inherent disadvantage vs schools IN conferences. That's not an opinion. It's a fact. Yes, Notre Dame still controls their destination being independent BUT there's MUCH less wiggle room vs being in a conf, whether they want to admit it or not.

What does "whether they want to admit it or not" have to do with this discussion?

The point is that despite having a harder path, so long as they have an actual path they will stay independent.

For some weird reason, people don't seem to get this.

That, despite every move it has made since 1991 (NBC contract, partial Big East membership, partial ACC membership) being for the PRIMARY purpose of preserving football independence at all costs.

I'm not even sure Notre Dame has a harder path to the playoffs than a P5 team does. Because it seems clear that (a) if ND goes unbeaten they will make the playoffs, and (b) if they lose two or more games, they won't. Which is EXACTLY as it has been for everyone else - every unbeaten P5 has made the playoffs, nobody with 2 losses has.

What we don't know is what will happen if they lose one game. And even then we won't know for sure, because some very profile teams have been left out with one loss. E.g., twice Ohio State has lost only one game and yet has been left out of the playoffs, so that's an uncertain zone for anyone.
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2019 10:33 AM by quo vadis.)
12-12-2019 10:30 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-12-2019 10:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-12-2019 09:38 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'm thinking that if Delany is pondering both 16 team conferences and an 8 team playoff he is envisioning four power conferences with the first round of the playoff including the 8 P4 division winners.
This presupposes a breakaway of the 4 surviving P conferences where each conferences 2 division winners comprise the 8 team playoff. And it also presupposes that the networks pay those conferences significantly more money than their CCG's get right now in order to accomplish their acquiescence in the matter.

IMO, this is the only pathway to the 8 team CFP model because it does not hamper, but enhances the odds that any team makes it in thereby paving the way for the move to 16 without negatively impacting the usual suspects in each existing conference. And because it makes it clear to each conference that they will be involved every year which is the buy in for the less dominant conferences.

I simply don't see the SEC or Big 10 giving up their CCG's unless they know they get two in and the money is better.

Now whether that winds up being 4 champs and 4 at large, or 8 division champs is a different matter.

Pretty much. Or some divisionless conference scheduling model in which the top two teams from each conference get in. Perhaps the top teams from each conference play the second teams from another conference in the first round, so it's possible for a single conference to have two teams in the semifinals.
12-12-2019 10:31 AM
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Post: #54
Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-11-2019 05:18 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Ross Dellenger

@RossDellenger
A Power 5 AD in New York this week said a specific 8-team playoff model is circulating around the CFB world that would incorporate bowls, including a bowl-sponsored national championship game.

The model:
- 5 auto bids for P5 champs
- 2 at-large
- 1 Group of 5


That seems the most likely. It allows access, keeps the top 6 P5 teams in, allows every league to save face when their champ is down, and gets G5 access. It’s not ideal but it’s the simplest model that will likely get support.
12-12-2019 10:31 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-12-2019 10:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(12-12-2019 10:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-12-2019 09:38 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'm thinking that if Delany is pondering both 16 team conferences and an 8 team playoff he is envisioning four power conferences with the first round of the playoff including the 8 P4 division winners.
This presupposes a breakaway of the 4 surviving P conferences where each conferences 2 division winners comprise the 8 team playoff. And it also presupposes that the networks pay those conferences significantly more money than their CCG's get right now in order to accomplish their acquiescence in the matter.

IMO, this is the only pathway to the 8 team CFP model because it does not hamper, but enhances the odds that any team makes it in thereby paving the way for the move to 16 without negatively impacting the usual suspects in each existing conference. And because it makes it clear to each conference that they will be involved every year which is the buy in for the less dominant conferences.

I simply don't see the SEC or Big 10 giving up their CCG's unless they know they get two in and the money is better.

Now whether that winds up being 4 champs and 4 at large, or 8 division champs is a different matter.

Pretty much. Or some divisionless conference scheduling model in which the top two teams from each conference get in. Perhaps the top teams from each conference play the second teams from another conference in the first round, so it's possible for a single conference to have two teams in the semifinals.

I would be good with going divisionless and taking the two top teams and I particularly like having each conferences #2 play someone else's #1. I guess the only rub I would have with what the networks are likely to suggest, is that I would prefer seeing those first round games played at the home stadium of the higher ranked school instead of adding a third major travel expense to the fans by utilizing only the bowls. Having the semis and finals in the bowls isn't optimal now, but it is established. Add a third trip to it and the attendance at the quarter finals would be dismal. Put it in a home venue for the higher ranked school and you have a winner. And it affords regional access to some round of the playoffs for college football fans in general.
12-12-2019 10:38 AM
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Post: #56
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-12-2019 07:47 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  5-1-2 is more likely to push the American to expand west than force Notre Dame’s hand.

The American could take SDSU, Boise State, and Air Force and basically own the playoff spot.

Totally agree. I don't see how this would force Notre Dame hand at all,as long as there are 2 at large spots. However I can see the p5 wanting to keep the g5 spot competitive, profitable (ratings wise) and easy. This basically signals to me that the AACS' end game of p5 access is within reach. It's time for the AAC/Boise, SDSU and one of BYU or Airforce to to come together and claim that spot. That unfortunately would eliminate the other g4s from an auto-bid but it could lead to language that will technically still give them a way into the playoffs at best and a guaranteed good bowl against (most likely a new AAC AAC 3rd or fourth place team as a way to free the original p5s from having to play them). I honestly think ESPN wouldn't have a problem in the world with this financially. Heck after basically letting the AAC keep UCONNs' money it would only cost them about 15 million extra on paper, but once you subtract what they already pay for Boise and SDSU and Byu it would be a no-brainer.
12-12-2019 10:56 AM
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Tigersmoke4 Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-12-2019 10:31 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(12-11-2019 05:18 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Ross Dellenger

@RossDellenger
A Power 5 AD in New York this week said a specific 8-team playoff model is circulating around the CFB world that would incorporate bowls, including a bowl-sponsored national championship game.

The model:
- 5 auto bids for P5 champs
- 2 at-large
- 1 Group of 5


That seems the most likely. It allows access, keeps the top 6 P5 teams in, allows every league to save face when their champ is down, and gets G5 access. It’s not ideal but it’s the simplest model that will likely get support.
The problem is the power brokers and public would rather see
Boise in playoffs over San Jose
BYU OVER WYOMING
HOUSTON OVER UTSA
Memphis over MTSU
UCF over UAB
Cincy over eastern Michigan.
If those programs merge then the whole puzzle simpler and as close to perfect as possible because it would guarantee quality matchups while shielding ESPN and the original p5s from including a program going undefeated beating a bunch of terrible teams that probably shouldn't even be in the FBS.
12-12-2019 11:12 AM
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Post: #58
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
Agreed that this type of playoff system really wouldn't impact Notre Dame's decision. Independence is a core institutional identity for that school, so as long as there's access to the playoff via at-large bids, they're not going to join a conference.

I also don't think we could ever reasonably have a playoff system of *just* conference champs (whether it's 4 power conferences or some other figure). For as much as it's entertaining to go through war game scenarios of the top schools breaking away, there are still benefits to having the NCAA exist as an overarching administrative organization for sports outside of football. Plus, I just don't see how we could have a system that *automatically* excludes a whole subset of college football teams. It might not be *likely* that a G5 team is a top 4 team and in fact might be really really really really really hard for that G5 team to make it to the playoff in practicality. However, there's a big difference between "really really really really hard" and a complete 100% mandated structural exclusion. That just won't fly. You at least have to give access on paper (even if that access basically amounts to lottery ticket odds in practicality).
12-12-2019 11:14 AM
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Post: #59
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
5-1-2 makes sense as long as the Big 12 exists as a P level conference. If it gets decimated and some of its rivals go to 16 a 4 team champs only format would be sensible but ND would need to be in a conference.

If the Big 12 loses its star programs but ND won’t join a major conference we could see a 4-1-3 playoff model.

I’m in agreement with the poster who suggested that a 5-1-2 would lead to AAC western expansion—it just makes sense to try and concentrate the best of the G leagues into a de facto 6th P league.
12-12-2019 11:24 AM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-12-2019 10:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-12-2019 10:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(12-12-2019 10:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-12-2019 09:38 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'm thinking that if Delany is pondering both 16 team conferences and an 8 team playoff he is envisioning four power conferences with the first round of the playoff including the 8 P4 division winners.
This presupposes a breakaway of the 4 surviving P conferences where each conferences 2 division winners comprise the 8 team playoff. And it also presupposes that the networks pay those conferences significantly more money than their CCG's get right now in order to accomplish their acquiescence in the matter.

IMO, this is the only pathway to the 8 team CFP model because it does not hamper, but enhances the odds that any team makes it in thereby paving the way for the move to 16 without negatively impacting the usual suspects in each existing conference. And because it makes it clear to each conference that they will be involved every year which is the buy in for the less dominant conferences.

I simply don't see the SEC or Big 10 giving up their CCG's unless they know they get two in and the money is better.

Now whether that winds up being 4 champs and 4 at large, or 8 division champs is a different matter.

Pretty much. Or some divisionless conference scheduling model in which the top two teams from each conference get in. Perhaps the top teams from each conference play the second teams from another conference in the first round, so it's possible for a single conference to have two teams in the semifinals.

I would be good with going divisionless and taking the two top teams and I particularly like having each conferences #2 play someone else's #1. I guess the only rub I would have with what the networks are likely to suggest, is that I would prefer seeing those first round games played at the home stadium of the higher ranked school instead of adding a third major travel expense to the fans by utilizing only the bowls. Having the semis and finals in the bowls isn't optimal now, but it is established. Add a third trip to it and the attendance at the quarter finals would be dismal. Put it in a home venue for the higher ranked school and you have a winner. And it affords regional access to some round of the playoffs for college football fans in general.

I agree with all of that. The logic is impeccable.
12-12-2019 11:37 AM
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