A lot is riding on the SEC Championship Game next week but there is also drama on the other side of the country. Yes, there's an outside shot of Ohio State and Clemson stumbling. However, I think those games would have predictable ends. And I have to think that LSU might still end up with the fourth spot in case they lose. So it really comes down who among those three would get that last spot.

Both Georgia and Oklahoma have the pedigree. Utah would be the choice for supporters of the underdog. And the PAC would really push for the Utes' inclusion if they win next week.

(12-01-2019 12:02 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  A lot is riding on the SEC Championship Game next week but there is also drama on the other side of the country. Yes, there's an outside shot of Ohio State and Clemson stumbling. However, I think those games would have predictable ends. And I have to think that LSU might still end up with the fourth spot in case they lose. So it really comes down who among those three would get that last spot.

Both Georgia and Oklahoma have the pedigree. Utah would be the choice for supporters of the underdog. And the PAC would really push for the Utes' inclusion if they win next week.

I'm all for giving Utah the shot. Utah looks better than Oklahoma and Baylor. I'm hoping LSU doesn't lose, cause it would be hard to keep them out.

I think LSU and Ohio St are in no matter what happens next Saturday.

Clemson and Georgia are win and in no matter what.

If LSU, Ohio St, and Clemson win, then it's down to Utah, Oklahoma, and Baylor. Oklahoma has by far the better resume. They have 4 wins vs winning teams and a top 10 win. Utah has no ranked wins, and only between 3-5 wins vs winning teams(pending ASU and Cal tonight). Oklahoma has a better CCG opponent as well. I think it goes Oklahoma- and it's not really close.

Agreed that LSU is in if they lose but I think they get left out if they get wildly blown out and assuming both Utah and Oklahoma lose. I think Oklahoma will have the edge over Utah because Baylor will be ranked higher than Oregon. I expect Ohio St, LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Oregon to win their conference championship games. Should that happen, I think it's: #1 LSU vs. #4 Oklahoma in Peach Bowl and #2 Ohio St vs. #3 Clemson in Fiesta Bowl.

I think LSU beating Georgia should loft them over Ohio St but it might not.

LSU is in with a loss, unless they get crushed.

(12-01-2019 12:20 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  LSU is in with a loss, unless they get crushed.

Yep, and you can say the same thing about Ohio St.

(12-01-2019 12:11 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think LSU and Ohio St are in no matter what happens next Saturday.

Clemson and Georgia are win and in no matter what.

If LSU, Ohio St, and Clemson win, then it's down to Utah, Oklahoma, and Baylor. Oklahoma has by far the better resume. They have 4 wins vs winning teams and a top 10 win. Utah has no ranked wins, and only between 3-5 wins vs winning teams(pending ASU and Cal tonight). Oklahoma has a better CCG opponent as well. I think it goes Oklahoma- and it's not really close.

That sounds good, but the CFP poll has Utah ranked ahead of OU. In fact, every poll has Utah ahead of OU. So if both OU and Utah win their CCG, it would seem Utah had the advantage. Utah has the No. 3 ranked defense in the nation behind Ohio State and Clemson and No. 1 rushing defense in the nation, so they have a very good team.

(12-01-2019 01:12 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 12:11 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think LSU and Ohio St are in no matter what happens next Saturday.

Clemson and Georgia are win and in no matter what.

If LSU, Ohio St, and Clemson win, then it's down to Utah, Oklahoma, and Baylor. Oklahoma has by far the better resume. They have 4 wins vs winning teams and a top 10 win. Utah has no ranked wins, and only between 3-5 wins vs winning teams(pending ASU and Cal tonight). Oklahoma has a better CCG opponent as well. I think it goes Oklahoma- and it's not really close.

That sounds good, but the CFP poll has Utah ranked ahead of OU. In fact, every poll has Utah ahead of OU. So if both OU and Utah win their CCG, it would seem Utah had the advantage. Utah has the No. 3 ranked defense in the nation behind Ohio State and Clemson and No. 1 rushing defense in the nation, so they have a very good team.

We have to see where the CFP has Utah and Oklahoma are ranked Tuesday.

(12-01-2019 01:12 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 12:11 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think LSU and Ohio St are in no matter what happens next Saturday.

Clemson and Georgia are win and in no matter what.

If LSU, Ohio St, and Clemson win, then it's down to Utah, Oklahoma, and Baylor. Oklahoma has by far the better resume. They have 4 wins vs winning teams and a top 10 win. Utah has no ranked wins, and only between 3-5 wins vs winning teams(pending ASU and Cal tonight). Oklahoma has a better CCG opponent as well. I think it goes Oklahoma- and it's not really close.

That sounds good, but the CFP poll has Utah ranked ahead of OU. In fact, every poll has Utah ahead of OU. So if both OU and Utah win their CCG, it would seem Utah had the advantage. Utah has the No. 3 ranked defense in the nation behind Ohio State and Clemson and No. 1 rushing defense in the nation, so they have a very good team.

OU beat a better team tonight, and has a better CCG opponent- Baylor 9/Oregon 14. Baylor should be #7 and Oregon is going to be lucky to be top 10- and frankly probably won't be top 10. If this were the poll era you might be right. But given they redo the ratings each week- I think Utah is in deep trouble.

I also think the fact that it'd be a true comparison between Utah and Oklahoma doesn't help Utah out much. Utah's schedule has been no where near as good. Oklahoma SOS 27, Utah 51(and that gap will widen after this week).

(12-01-2019 01:12 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  That sounds good, but the CFP poll has Utah ranked ahead of OU. In fact, every poll has Utah ahead of OU.

That sounds like the first year of the CFP, when TCU was ahead of Ohio State... until the committee decided they wanted the bigger name team in the playoff. Same thing will happen this year. If Utah wins next week, the committee will F them like they did TCU. Take it to the bank.

(12-01-2019 02:44 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 01:12 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  That sounds good, but the CFP poll has Utah ranked ahead of OU. In fact, every poll has Utah ahead of OU.

That sounds like the first year of the CFP, when TCU was ahead of Ohio State... until the committee decided they wanted the bigger name team in the playoff. Same thing will happen this year. If Utah wins next week, the committee will F them like they did TCU. Take it to the bank.

and both times it was/would be the correct football decision. I look at what they did in 2014 similar to the NFL. They applied the conference tiebreaker first- eliminating TCU with Baylor- and then looked at Baylor/Ohio St. and this year- Utah's schedule just wasn't that good at all... They have absolutely nothing to compare to the Baylor win that Oklahoma has.

(12-01-2019 02:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 02:44 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 01:12 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  That sounds good, but the CFP poll has Utah ranked ahead of OU. In fact, every poll has Utah ahead of OU.

That sounds like the first year of the CFP, when TCU was ahead of Ohio State... until the committee decided they wanted the bigger name team in the playoff. Same thing will happen this year. If Utah wins next week, the committee will F them like they did TCU. Take it to the bank.

and both times it was/would be the correct football decision. I look at what they did in 2014 similar to the NFL. They applied the conference tiebreaker first- eliminating TCU with Baylor- and then looked at Baylor/Ohio St. and this year- Utah's schedule just wasn't that good at all... They have absolutely nothing to compare to the Baylor win that Oklahoma has.

Nah. As I've said here before, college football is more like pro wrestling than we want to admit. To borrow a line from the movie Unforgiven, "Deserve's got nothin' to do with it."

If you want to be like the WWF play by play guy who tries to justify everything that happens no matter how outrageous it is, go ahead.

(12-01-2019 02:56 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 02:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 02:44 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 01:12 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  That sounds good, but the CFP poll has Utah ranked ahead of OU. In fact, every poll has Utah ahead of OU.

That sounds like the first year of the CFP, when TCU was ahead of Ohio State... until the committee decided they wanted the bigger name team in the playoff. Same thing will happen this year. If Utah wins next week, the committee will F them like they did TCU. Take it to the bank.

and both times it was/would be the correct football decision. I look at what they did in 2014 similar to the NFL. They applied the conference tiebreaker first- eliminating TCU with Baylor- and then looked at Baylor/Ohio St. and this year- Utah's schedule just wasn't that good at all... They have absolutely nothing to compare to the Baylor win that Oklahoma has.

Nah. As I've said here before, college football is more like pro wrestling than we want to admit. To borrow a line from the movie Unforgiven, "Deserve's got nothin' to do with it."

If you want to be like the WWF play by play guy who tries to justify everything that happens no matter how outrageous it is, go ahead.

did Baylor beat TCU that season? of course they did. With both at 11-1, that made Baylor the conference champion- no matter what the Big 12 said.... To say it wasn't football related is a joke.

(12-01-2019 02:44 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 01:12 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  That sounds good, but the CFP poll has Utah ranked ahead of OU. In fact, every poll has Utah ahead of OU.

That sounds like the first year of the CFP, when TCU was ahead of Ohio State... until the committee decided they wanted the bigger name team in the playoff. Same thing will happen this year. If Utah wins next week, the committee will F them like they did TCU. Take it to the bank.

Entirely different situation. Ohio State beat Wisconsin in the CCG 59-0. The Big 12 did not have a CCG and the committee was not impressed with a TCU blowout of a 2-10 Iowa State team. Ohio State went on to win the national championship.

If Utah is 12-1 and OU is 12-1, OU needs an impressive win to jump Utah. Beating Baylor is not going to do that, unless like Ohio State, they win in a blowout over Baylor that is very impressive, while Utah has some kind of ugly win over Oregon. Otherwise, Utah has nine consecutive wins, a Conference Championship and a top five defense. Over the the past two months, they have been a better team than Oklahoma.

(12-01-2019 03:15 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 02:44 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 01:12 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  That sounds good, but the CFP poll has Utah ranked ahead of OU. In fact, every poll has Utah ahead of OU.

That sounds like the first year of the CFP, when TCU was ahead of Ohio State... until the committee decided they wanted the bigger name team in the playoff. Same thing will happen this year. If Utah wins next week, the committee will F them like they did TCU. Take it to the bank.

Entirely different situation. Ohio State beat Wisconsin in the CCG 59-0. The Big 12 did not have a CCG and the committee was not impressed with a TCU blowout of a 2-10 Iowa State team. Ohio State went on to win the national championship.

If Utah is 12-1 and OU is 12-1, OU needs an impressive win to jump Utah. Beating Baylor is not going to do that, unless like Ohio State, they win in a blowout over Baylor that is very impressive, while Utah has some kind of ugly win over Oregon. Otherwise, Utah has nine consecutive wins, a Conference Championship and a top five defense. Over the the past two months, they have been a better team than Oklahoma.

it's possible Oklahoma jumps them on Tuesday quite frankly.. it's easy too look great when you are playing a lot of crap. The one good team they played they got murdered.

LSU, Ohio State and Clemson are locks.

Georgia has to win. Utah and Oklahoma have to win and hope LSU wins the SEC CCG.

Probably Alabama, ND and Oregon get NY6 games along with 2 of the 3 who have to win to get in. Penn State/Wisconsin/Michigan vie for the last spots with Baylor.

I am assuming ND gets the Orange Bowl as the best of the ACC/ND available.

G5 spot goes to Memphis if they beat Cincy again in the CCG. If they lose then Boise State gets the NY6 access. App State needs to win their CCG while Boise State and Memphis lose theirs.

Hum, fairly settled.

Utah loses to Oregon

Baylor beats Oklahoma

Baylor in the playoff

(12-01-2019 04:40 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I am assuming ND gets the Orange Bowl as the best of the ACC/ND available.

This is how the Orange Bowl contract should be structured - but it's not.

Notre Dame cannot take the ACC's spot in the Orange Bowl, nobody can. An ACC team will play in the Orange Bowl, period.

Notre Dame is eligible for the "who will play the ACC team" slot, but competes with the SEC and B1G for that. And Notre Dame is very unlikely to be the highest ranked available team among those three entities, so their only shot at an NY6 is the Cotton Bowl.

The contract says that the Orange Bowl gets either (a) the ACC champion or (b) if the ACC champ is in the playoffs, then the next-highest ranked ACC team as determined by the CFP. But, in all probability, there will be NO ranked ACC team available, so the Orange Bowl Board of Directors selects the ACC team, likely Virginia but possibly ... anyone among the bowl-eligible ACC teams.

Most likely:

Ohio State, Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma, and Utah win.

Oklahoma gets in over Utah because they beat Baylor again. Also, there is a bias for Oklahoma.

People complaining about Virginia getting the Orange Bowl: shut up. Seriously, it’s the way the bowl games are structured. Plus, they are actually an exciting team to watch with an explosive QB.

OSU, LSU, are locks even if they lose. BTW Massey has Whisky at #5 now ahead of Bama.