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Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
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dragon2owl Offline
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Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
Any guesses on where Rice will end up?

Outside chance Rice and WKU both host. Rice is likely a 2 seed. Projections had Rice a 2-seed at A&M but after a 1-1 week A&M might be out of hosting.
(This post was last modified: 12-02-2019 08:44 PM by dragon2owl.)
11-30-2019 10:15 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
I see St. John's won the Big East (upsets over Creighton and Marquette on back-to-back days). I bet you that knocks the Big East out of hosting. So I'll predict Baylor, Texas, Stanford, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Washington (assuming they do win tonight) and either Florida or Kentucky are the top 8 seeds. The other hosts will be the other SEC team, Penn State, Minnesota, let's say Utah for another west coast team, Western Kentucky and Purdue. I still see another west coast host (either Hawaii, San Diego or BYU), and then maybe the last host comes down to A&M, Rice or maybe Missouri?

It makes way too much sense for SFA and Texas State to be the 2 seeds at Baylor and Texas. So of course the NCAA will probably make one of them a 3 seed, and us a 2 seed. But it would also make a lot of sense for Rice and A&M to be paired in a regional at one of those two locations.

I think ultimately we'll be on the road, because I seriously doubt the NCAA awards CUSA two host locations, and you've got to give the nod to WKU over Rice at this point. Honestly, I just hope Rice gets a reasonable 1st round match-up, and is ready to win its first NCAA postseason match in school history.

ETA - Washington lost to WSU, so that 8th top 8 seed is still very much up in the air too. I hope they don't over-value the SEC and give them two of the eight top 8 seeds. I think Minnesota deserves it more over a second SEC team.
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2019 10:40 PM by Fort Bend Owl.)
11-30-2019 10:29 PM
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dragon2owl Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
Rice was 3-3 vs conference champions.
11-30-2019 10:39 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
(11-30-2019 10:15 PM)dragon2owl Wrote:  Any guesses on where Rice will end up?

Outside chance Rice and WKU both host. Rice is likely a 2 seed. Projections had Rice a 2-seed at A&M but after a 1-1 week A&M might be out of hosting.

With both Creighton and Marquette losing in the Big East tourney to bubble-buster St. Johns, I think WKU has locked up one of the final hosting spots. I think we're sent to one of the following: BYU, Colorado State, Kentucky or Florida.
11-30-2019 10:53 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
(11-30-2019 10:15 PM)dragon2owl Wrote:  Any guesses on where Rice will end up?

Outside chance Rice and WKU both host. Rice is likely a 2 seed. Projections had Rice a 2-seed at A&M but after a 1-1 week A&M might be out of hosting.

No way the Aggies are hosting. I see the Aggies as a #2 seed at either Texas or Baylor. SFA is on the border of #2 and #3 seed; they can be placed either way. I believe we were their only Top 30 opponent, which is why their RPI is not that great. Texas State is almost certainly a #3 seed based on RPI (and receiving no votes in the rankings).
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2019 11:04 PM by waltgreenberg.)
11-30-2019 10:54 PM
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dragon2owl Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
Here's a projection on VolleyTalk. In last 7 years, poster has missed on 6 at-large teams, and 8 seeded teams. So, about 1 at-large and 1-seed per year.

Quote:16 Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds

1 Baylor
2 Stanford
3 Texas
4 Pittsburgh
5 Wisconsin
6 Kentucky
7 Washington
8 Nebraska
9 Minnesota
10 Florida
11 Marquette
12 Hawaii
13 Texas A&M
14 Penn State
15 BYU
16 Rice

Just Missed it:
Western Kentucky, Utah, Creighton, Purdue
I ended up settling on Rice at #16. This was very tough and I could easily see Western Kentucky or Utah as the first in line to take Rice's place. Rice was the only team that had TWO non-conference Top 25 victories. The committee seems to really emphasize the non-conference for seeded teams - and Rice has that ginormous win over Texas, which might be just better enough than the bubble seeds' wins over Kentucky. I have very little confidence in this at all - and in all honesty I wanted to put Utah here. But Utah had some sketchy losses and I'm just not seeing two hosts in Utah. And of course -- how do you not mention WKU who beat Rice twice, on Rice's home court, and is just one spot behind them?! Well - WKU's best non-conference win is Northern Kentucky -- so that wasn't good enough for me. It was really close. Will be interesting to see what the committee decides.

http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/7...acketology
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2019 12:10 PM by dragon2owl.)
12-01-2019 12:08 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
http://pnwvolleyblog.blogspot.com/2019/1...ughts.html

Here's another projection which has Western Kentucky hosting but not Rice. I'm surprised to see A&M listed as a host in both projections. They have a few decent wins in conference play but a lot of close losses to good teams too (like Rice), and then some iffy losses on top of that (Tennessee, LSU). We also have better showings against three common opponents (Texas, Texas State, Ole Miss). We went 3-0 against that group - they were 2-1 and were 6-6 overall in sets against those 3, whereas we were 9-2. But I'd be fine if we were a 2 seed at that region. As long as the 3 seed wasn't Texas State or SFA (or even Oklahoma).
12-01-2019 12:17 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
(12-01-2019 12:17 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://pnwvolleyblog.blogspot.com/2019/1...ughts.html

Here's another projection which has Western Kentucky hosting but not Rice. I'm surprised to see A&M listed as a host in both projections. They have a few decent wins in conference play but a lot of close losses to good teams too (like Rice), and then some iffy losses on top of that (Tennessee, LSU). We also have better showings against three common opponents (Texas, Texas State, Ole Miss). We went 3-0 against that group - they were 2-1 and were 6-6 overall in sets against those 3, whereas we were 9-2. But I'd be fine if we were a 2 seed at that region. As long as the 3 seed wasn't Texas State or SFA (or even Oklahoma).

I just don't get the Aggies as a 3rd SEC team hosting, but if they are hosting, we'll almost certainly be sent there....and I would think the team would be overjoyed with that assignment (recognizing that we're almost certainly not going to host). Given that Stanford beat Texas, and all of their losses were without 2-time defending national POY (Kathleen Plummer), who is now back and at full strenth, I think they'll be the #2 seed.
12-01-2019 03:58 PM
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dragon2owl Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
Baylor, Stanford, Texas, and Wisconsin are top 4.
12-01-2019 08:28 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
A&M hosting at #13. Purdue got the final host spot. Undeserving, IMO. WKU at #15.
12-01-2019 08:38 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
I'd be shocked if we're not sent to College Station. My bet is that's what the team is hoping.
12-01-2019 08:39 PM
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billstudabaker Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
Sensible and predictable.
12-01-2019 08:42 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
Maybe no team got screwed over more in hosting than San Diego (assuming they made a bid to host). They won the WCC, swept BYU, and yet BYU hosts and they don't. Pitt being the #6 overall seed is a surprise too.
12-01-2019 08:43 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
Oklahoma with #30 RPI (due largely to playing in Big12), but only recieved 6 votes in poll. Fair first round opponent-- one of the better #3 seeds.
12-01-2019 08:47 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/volleyball-women/d1/2019

Full bracket. A few surprise at-large bids. I don't know which teams were left out but I suspect that there are a few deserving teams that got gypped.
12-01-2019 08:53 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
(12-01-2019 08:47 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Oklahoma with #30 RPI (due largely to playing in Big12), but only recieved 6 votes in poll. Fair first round opponent-- one of the better #3 seeds.

They're 19-8 on the year. They haven't beaten a ranked team, though they took both Baylor and the Aggies to 5 sets. Also lost to both Cal (tourney team) in 5 sets. They did beat both Arizona State and Oregon State in 5 sets, but those squads were near the bottom of the Pac12.
12-01-2019 08:56 PM
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Almadenmike Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
(12-01-2019 08:56 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 08:47 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Oklahoma with #30 RPI (due largely to playing in Big12), but only recieved 6 votes in poll. Fair first round opponent-- one of the better #3 seeds.

They're 19-8 on the year. They haven't beaten a ranked team, though they took both Baylor and the Aggies to 5 sets. Also lost to both Cal (tourney team) in 5 sets. They did beat both Arizona State and Oregon State in 5 sets, but those squads were near the bottom of the Pac12.

The Sooners were swept by Cal (not a 5-set loss) in their first match of the year. But the Bears are NOT in this year's NCAA tournament. (FWIW, Southern Cal and Cal-Poly are in the 2019 field ... and the graphic that accompanied the Selection Committee rep on the ESPN-U show had Cal as the first team out (not in) the field.)
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2019 09:14 PM by Almadenmike.)
12-01-2019 09:06 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
(12-01-2019 09:06 PM)Almadenmike Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 08:56 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 08:47 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Oklahoma with #30 RPI (due largely to playing in Big12), but only recieved 6 votes in poll. Fair first round opponent-- one of the better #3 seeds.

They're 19-8 on the year. They haven't beaten a ranked team, though they took both Baylor and the Aggies to 5 sets. Also lost to both Cal (tourney team) in 5 sets. They did beat both Arizona State and Oregon State in 5 sets, but those squads were near the bottom of the Pac12.

The Sooners were swept by Cal in their first match of the year. But the Bears are NOT in this year's NCAA tournament. (Southern Cal and Cal-Poly are in the 2019 field, FWIW.)

Cal must have collapsed down the stretch as they were ranked for awhile there. The Pac12 and Big10 eats their own. It's one of the reason it's so hard to truly judge Baylor and UT, who play in the much less balanced at the top conference. At least UT traditionally plays an elite OOC schedule.

Edit: Cal was first out while Illinois was the second to the last in. Selection committee obviously thought the Big10 was more deserving than the Pac12. Cal had a much better record (20-10), beat more ranked teams and had the higher RPI. Unfotunagely, they lost their last 6 matches (all against tourney teams save for Colorado).
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2019 09:21 PM by waltgreenberg.)
12-01-2019 09:14 PM
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Almadenmike Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
(12-01-2019 09:14 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Cal must have collapsed down the stretch as they were ranked for awhile there. The Pac12 and Big10 eats their own.

Yes, the Bears lost their season's last six matches ... but five were to tournament teams: UCLA (0-3), USC (1-3), Utah (1-3), Washington (2-3) and Stanford (1-3).
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2019 09:21 PM by Almadenmike.)
12-01-2019 09:19 PM
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Almadenmike Offline
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RE: Volleyball - 2019 NCAA's
Near the end of tonight's program, ESPN-U showed a montage of some conference-tournament champions' on-court celebrations ... and for WKU's at Tudor, with CUSA labeling clearly visible in the background, the voiceover said "Southern Conference ...."
12-01-2019 09:32 PM
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