Before this season, I said that I would make my judgments on wins, and three is not enough. Three would have been minimal last year, but in year two we needed to see more.

However, I will issue a stay of execution for Bloomgrem, based on the following mitigating circumstances:

The three wins were in the final three games, and,
7 pf the 9 losses were by two scores or less.

Still need to see more progress in 2020. A bowl game is a minimal achievement next year. Barely enough, or maybe not quite enough. But at least it is an easily discernible benchmark. We need progress. A bowl game is not an end goal, bit a step on the way.

JMHO.

Johnson needs to become a dual threat QB, else all we have with him is the Wild Owl. Plus we have a ton of good receivers, and we need a QB who can get the ball to them.

Could Marshman be converted to RB?

We definitely need the fire the quarterback coach but not sure about the other staff. Is will be interesting if the three wins will help in recruiting especially in the Houston area.

(11-30-2019 07:30 PM)OldOwl Wrote:  We definitely need the fire the quarterback coach but not sure about the other staff. Is will be interesting if the three wins will help in recruiting especially in the Houston area.

No one needs to be fired. This team is making progress at every position after “year 0”. I expect to be in attendance when we beat UH next season. Love where we are headed. We are learning how to WIN games again!

(11-30-2019 07:47 PM)WarOwl1 Wrote:  

(11-30-2019 07:30 PM)OldOwl Wrote:  We definitely need the fire the quarterback coach but not sure about the other staff. Is will be interesting if the three wins will help in recruiting especially in the Houston area.

No one needs to be fired. This team is making progress at every position after “year 0”. I expect to be in attendance when we beat UH next season. Love where we are headed. We are learning how to WIN games again!

“Year 0” was BS... Yea, the roster was very depleted. But if you compare the roster we had at Rice last year to the chicken $h1t that Miles had to work with at KU this year, they are awfully comparable. Miles got three wins from that, including two over P5 teams. We couldn’t stay within three scores of most teams last year.

And then to go 0-9 to start this year...?

Bloomgren had a nice finish but I think questioning the QB coaching is certainly fine. Green didn’t make any progress from “Year 0” to “Year 1” (nor did Towns or Marshman but they’re walk-ons).

I'm hopeful for next year because we opened up the playbook a bit more in the last month, leading to wins. That showed some flexibility by Bloomgren in pursuit of wins at expense of dogma. I'm concerned that it took so long to make those changes. If we spend spring practices running more of Mack's spread offense than Bloomgren's power runs, and if Johnson can find his receivers with regularity, I think we'll see 6+ wins next year. If either of those things don't happen, we'll be in for another long year. I don't care if we keep the power scheme as a long term aspiration to build for, but I doubt we'll find the offensive line to run or the pocket passer to throw from the I-formation this offseason. If Bloomgren wants to continue working towards four yards and a cloud of dust, I hope he keeps that contained to recruiting and instead demonstrates this month's flexibility by planning his offense each offseason around the players he has as opposed to the fictional dream team he seemed to have in mind when calling plays earlier this year.

This just in, with UTSA’s loss tonight, YOUR RICE OWLS move up to finish in 4th place in CUSA West!

Actually a 3-way tie, but nice finish after the 0-5 conference start

Good news: we lead the nation in fewest penalties; our defense overachieved, especially when considering the time they spent on the field; special teams did well; we played some good teams very close; team morale seems to be outstanding, especially considering an 0-9 start.

Bad news: this season was very similar to last year, in that we only beat weak teams and after having been slow to move away from "pound the rock"; next year may be very similar again, with tough OOC schedule and another offensive rebuild....and will it again takes us 7 or 8 games to figure out "pound the rock" won't cut it? We need to find a QB, a kicker, a punter, and 3 new OL.

Very off the cuff, I'm seeing our 2-10 then 3-9 seasons becoming 4-8 or maybe 5-7 next year....unless an offensive miracle happens.

(11-30-2019 08:21 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  

(11-30-2019 07:47 PM)WarOwl1 Wrote:  

(11-30-2019 07:30 PM)OldOwl Wrote:  We definitely need the fire the quarterback coach but not sure about the other staff. Is will be interesting if the three wins will help in recruiting especially in the Houston area.

No one needs to be fired. This team is making progress at every position after “year 0”. I expect to be in attendance when we beat UH next season. Love where we are headed. We are learning how to WIN games again!

“Year 0” was BS... Yea, the roster was very depleted. But if you compare the roster we had at Rice last year to the chicken $h1t that Miles had to work with at KU this year, they are awfully comparable. Miles got three wins from that, including two over P5 teams. We couldn’t stay within three scores of most teams last year.

And then to go 0-9 to start this year...?

Bloomgren had a nice finish but I think questioning the QB coaching is certainly fine. Green didn’t make any progress from “Year 0” to “Year 1” (nor did Towns or Marshman but they’re walk-ons).

Culture change = Year 0
No Senior Leadership = Year 0
Transfers from Anderson, Ibe, etc = Year 0
New Strength Coach = Year 0
Youth = Year 0
Drawing a line of Expectations = Year 0

I don’t quite see our relation to KU currently and I see us soaring much higher than the likes of KU in the years to come just as we did in 2012-13.[/align]
[align=left]

(11-30-2019 10:30 PM)Barney Wrote:  Good news: ... our defense overachieved, especially when considering the time they spent on the field; ...

FYI, according to Rice's season-long stats page, the defense spent less time on the field than the Owls' offense this year.

Offense (Time of possession) - 31:28
Defense (Opponents' time of possession)_- 28:32

I predicted a two win season, with zero wins more likely than four wins, so I’m happy to be proven wrong in that regard. As I said when Bloomgren got hired, I need a bowl game next year or Bloomgren needs to be let go.

(11-30-2019 10:30 PM)Barney Wrote:  ... we lead the nation in fewest penalties; ...

It looks to me like we lead in fewest penalty yards, not fewest number of penalties.

Teamrankings.com has us 3rd in penalties per game (3.9), behind Air Force (3.6) and Wake Forest (3.8) and 2nd in penalty yards per game (29.8), behind Wake Forest (27.9) and ahead of Air Force (30.8).

But those numbers don't agree with these three schools' stat pages, which give Rice as second in number of penalties (45; 3.75/game), which is behind Air Force (40; 3.33) and ahead of Wake Forest (50; 4.17).

Among these three schools stats pages, Rice does have the fewest penalty yards (345) ... just ahead of Air Force (348) and substantially ahead of Wake Forest (395).

(I have not checked any other school's stat pages ... and ncaa.com's stat pages do not yet include the Nov. 30 games ... but after 11 games, we had been assessed the fewest penalty yards according to ncaa.com: 313 to 333 for Air Force.)

I also agree that “year zero” is a pretty convenient excuse, but Rice athletics has always been pretty good at excuses and for letting those within the department get away with them. Other coaches have taken over crap teams and done a hell of a lot better than 2-10, 3-9 in a crap conference. UH probably would have fire someone with Bloomgren’s results by midsession this year.

That said, ending the season on a better note at least gives me some hope. I haven't watched the last few games, but if Bloomgren has continued to stray some from his "pound the rock" philosophy, then perhaps there is long-term hope for the offense. If he goes back to pound the rock with pocket passers, he'll eventually get himself fired and I don't think Rice will find success under him. Very curious to see if he can hold most of the defense coaches since they way overperformed my expectations based on Rice's defenses the last 10-15 years.

(11-30-2019 08:24 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  I'm hopeful for next year because we opened up the playbook a bit more in the last month, leading to wins. That showed some flexibility by Bloomgren in pursuit of wins at expense of dogma. I'm concerned that it took so long to make those changes. If we spend spring practices running more of Mack's spread offense than Bloomgren's power runs, and if Johnson can find his receivers with regularity, I think we'll see 6+ wins next year. If either of those things don't happen, we'll be in for another long year. I don't care if we keep the power scheme as a long term aspiration to build for, but I doubt we'll find the offensive line to run or the pocket passer to throw from the I-formation this offseason. If Bloomgren wants to continue working towards four yards and a cloud of dust, I hope he keeps that contained to recruiting and instead demonstrates this month's flexibility by planning his offense each offseason around the players he has as opposed to the fictional dream team he seemed to have in mind when calling plays earlier this year.

+1

I have not looked at the schedule for next year, but Texas; Baylor; Wake; and Army is a very impressive (difficult) OOC schedule, for a rebuilding program. Upping the conference record next year to 4-4 (we did take a team in conference to OT, and essentially blew that game at the end, as well), and grabbing a couple of easy wins OOC could get us to a bowl. We certainly can get there.

Getting to a bowl is not and should not be our ultimate goal. As an interim goal, a step on the way to a higher goal,it is OK.

(12-01-2019 12:28 AM)mrbig Wrote:  I also agree that “year zero” is a pretty convenient excuse, but Rice athletics has always been pretty good at excuses and for letting those within the department get away with them. Other coaches have taken over crap teams and done a hell of a lot better than 2-10, 3-9 in a crap conference. UH probably would have fire someone with Bloomgren’s results by midsession this year.

That said, ending the season on a better note at least gives me some hope. I haven't watched the last few games, but if Bloomgren has continued to stray some from his "pound the rock" philosophy, then perhaps there is long-term hope for the offense. If he goes back to pound the rock with pocket passers, he'll eventually get himself fired and I don't think Rice will find success under him. Very curious to see if he can hold most of the defense coaches since they way overperformed my expectations based on Rice's defenses the last 10-15 years.

UH went 4-8 (2-6). They also had their star player quit on the team in a very public display.

We both had 3 FBS wins, one of which was UNT.
They beat Tulsa and UConn which is pretty close to our SoS.

King will probably be playing for a school in Oklahoma next season. We need to win that season opener.

Oh and they’re biggest donor who runs the school selected their HC so they can’t fire him yet

(12-01-2019 09:33 AM)owlsfan Wrote:  I have not looked at the schedule for next year, but Texas; Baylor; Wake; and Army is a very impressive (difficult) OOC schedule, for a rebuilding program. Upping the conference record next year to 4-4 (we did take a team in conference to OT, and essentially blew that game at the end, as well), and grabbing a couple of easy wins OOC could get us to a bowl. We certainly can get there.

@Houston
Army
LSU (NRG)
Lamar

(12-01-2019 10:16 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 09:33 AM)owlsfan Wrote:  I have not looked at the schedule for next year, but Texas; Baylor; Wake; and Army is a very impressive (difficult) OOC schedule, for a rebuilding program. Upping the conference record next year to 4-4 (we did take a team in conference to OT, and essentially blew that game at the end, as well), and grabbing a couple of easy wins OOC could get us to a bowl. We certainly can get there.

@Houston
Army
LSU (NRG)
Lamar

2-2 is believable
3-1 is achievable
1-3 is disappointing

(12-01-2019 10:21 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 10:16 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 09:33 AM)owlsfan Wrote:  I have not looked at the schedule for next year, but Texas; Baylor; Wake; and Army is a very impressive (difficult) OOC schedule, for a rebuilding program. Upping the conference record next year to 4-4 (we did take a team in conference to OT, and essentially blew that game at the end, as well), and grabbing a couple of easy wins OOC could get us to a bowl. We certainly can get there.

@Houston
Army
LSU (NRG)
Lamar

2-2 is believable
3-1 is achievable
1-3 is disappointing

Yep, OOC schedule is not tough compared to this year. We get Army at home this year and we swap out UT/Baylor/Wake Forest for LSU/UH/Lamar. Have to go 2-2 at least to feel good about potential bowl chances.

I’ll take 3-1 OOC plus 7-1 regular season conference to host championship game. Win that one against WKU and a bowl game against the MAC and ya got 12-2.

(And I was pretty much spot on with my prediction for this year, by the way)