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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Post Season thoughts
2-2 plus 6-2 would be 8-4, and I'd be happy with that. Anything above that is gravy. 6 or 7 total wins would be progress. So technically would be 4 or 5, but against a much easier schedule those would be too slow progress to be acceptable.

To me, it seems that our formula needs to be:
1) Play sound defense
2) Win the kicking game, and
3) Do something different on offense that is hard to prepare for.

Of course, I've thought that should be our formula for years.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2019 11:41 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
12-01-2019 11:39 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Post Season thoughts
We win three games against weak teams, and all of a sudden we are talking 8-4?

Show me.
12-01-2019 11:44 AM
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wrysal Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Post Season thoughts
So who are we losing for sure (only Myles Adams off the defense + Chaffin, Gooseberry and another OL + the punters + 2 RBs) and who are we in danger of losing to transfer/graduation (Trammell and Rozner, Alldridge?)?
12-01-2019 12:04 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Post Season thoughts
(12-01-2019 11:44 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  We win three games against weak teams, and all of a sudden we are talking 8-4?

Show me.

I think it all comes down to a situation similar to what we had in men's basketball. If we lose a lot of underclass guys, then expectations might be lowered a bit. But if everyone returns who is supposed to return, that's a lot of firepower. Especially on defense - where we lose just one starter (Myles Adams) from a unit that ranked 5th overall in the conference to begin with. I'd go as far to say that our 2020 defense might be the best defense we will feature since some of our really good defenses from the first half decade of the 1990's. For the last 5 games of the 2019 season, we allowed less than 20 points a game. If extended out to a full season, those are top-25 type national numbers.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2019 12:08 PM by Fort Bend Owl.)
12-01-2019 12:05 PM
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JustAnotherAustinOwl Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Post Season thoughts
(12-01-2019 11:44 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  We win three games against weak teams, and all of a sudden we are talking 8-4?

Show me.

Pretty good chance we will have 8 weak teams on our schedule next year.

But yes, I would not bet any money on it quite yet...
12-01-2019 12:12 PM
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Post Season thoughts
(12-01-2019 12:04 PM)wrysal Wrote:  So who are we losing for sure (only Myles Adams off the defense + Chaffin, Gooseberry and another OL + the punters + 2 RBs) and who are we in danger of losing to transfer/graduation (Trammell and Rozner, Alldridge?)?

Trammel likely could grad transfer if he wanted to (three summers + 3 academic years is probably about 120 credit hours-see: Cole Hunt)... I think it would be comparatively difficult (nearly impossible) for Rozner and Allredge given that they came from JuCo and probably need more time to graduate.

Wouldn't be surprised if you see some attrition from the RS Juniors who weren't huge contributors this year (Glaesmann, Silcox, Whitaker, Osuji in particular).
12-01-2019 12:14 PM
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loki_the_bubba Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Post Season thoughts
(12-01-2019 12:12 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 11:44 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  We win three games against weak teams, and all of a sudden we are talking 8-4?

Show me.

Pretty good chance we will have 8 weak teams on our schedule next year.

But yes, I would not bet any money on it quite yet...

I see 9. Lamar plus all of CUSA.
12-01-2019 12:18 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Post Season thoughts
(12-01-2019 12:14 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 12:04 PM)wrysal Wrote:  So who are we losing for sure (only Myles Adams off the defense + Chaffin, Gooseberry and another OL + the punters + 2 RBs) and who are we in danger of losing to transfer/graduation (Trammell and Rozner, Alldridge?)?

Trammel likely could grad transfer if he wanted to (three summers + 3 academic years is probably about 120 credit hours-see: Cole Hunt)... I think it would be comparatively difficult (nearly impossible) for Rozner and Allredge given that they came from JuCo and probably need more time to graduate.

Wouldn't be surprised if you see some attrition from the RS Juniors who weren't huge contributors this year (Glaesmann, Silcox, Whitaker, Osuji in particular).

I believe Glaesman and Silcox walked on Senior Day with their folks?? Not sure about the others.
12-01-2019 12:20 PM
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Rice Dad Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Post Season thoughts
[/quote]
. . . I think questioning the QB coaching is certainly fine. Green didn’t make any progress from “Year 0” to “Year 1” (nor did Towns or Marshman but they’re walk-ons).
[/quote]

I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago. Who is the QB next year? As I pointed out, this staff has had 10 QBs at its disposal since it got here, half of which are 3 stars, and what development has occurred in two full seasons? Johnson seems to be our latest trendy "now we found the guy", but his last ten passes he went 3 of 10 for 29 yards in "Mack's offense." Is he really a WR playing Wild Owl? He was not a proficient passer in HS, and was a zero star recruit despite being a 3-year starter. That means a lot of teams saw him and took a pass. What would Green do in the Mack Offense? Green certainly has a bigger arm than Johnson, and has not had the opportunity in the more pass-friendly offense. What about Marshman and Towns? Are they written off? Marshman looks faster than Johnson to me, but can't get on the field. Could he be used elsewhere? Towns is the highest rated QB as a recruit on our current QB roster, but what development has occurred? I think there are a lot of off-season QB development questions that should be asked of the QB coaching staff.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2019 12:27 PM by Rice Dad.)
12-01-2019 12:25 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Post Season thoughts
(12-01-2019 12:18 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 12:12 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 11:44 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  We win three games against weak teams, and all of a sudden we are talking 8-4?

Show me.

Pretty good chance we will have 8 weak teams on our schedule next year.

But yes, I would not bet any money on it quite yet...

I see 9. Lamar plus all of CUSA.

So, same as this year.
12-01-2019 12:36 PM
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Post Season thoughts
(12-01-2019 12:20 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 12:14 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 12:04 PM)wrysal Wrote:  So who are we losing for sure (only Myles Adams off the defense + Chaffin, Gooseberry and another OL + the punters + 2 RBs) and who are we in danger of losing to transfer/graduation (Trammell and Rozner, Alldridge?)?

Trammel likely could grad transfer if he wanted to (three summers + 3 academic years is probably about 120 credit hours-see: Cole Hunt)... I think it would be comparatively difficult (nearly impossible) for Rozner and Allredge given that they came from JuCo and probably need more time to graduate.

Wouldn't be surprised if you see some attrition from the RS Juniors who weren't huge contributors this year (Glaesmann, Silcox, Whitaker, Osuji in particular).

I believe Glaesman and Silcox walked on Senior Day with their folks?? Not sure about the others.

Got it. I wasn't at the game but that doesn't surprise me.
12-01-2019 12:49 PM
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Buho00 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Post Season thoughts
. . . I think questioning the QB coaching is certainly fine. Green didn’t make any progress from “Year 0” to “Year 1” (nor did Towns or Marshman but they’re walk-ons).
[/quote]

I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago. Who is the QB next year? As I pointed out, this staff has had 10 QBs at its disposal since it got here, half of which are 3 stars, and what development has occurred in two full seasons? Johnson seems to be our latest trendy "now we found the guy", but his last ten passes he went 3 of 10 for 29 yards in "Mack's offense." Is he really a WR playing Wild Owl? He was not a proficient passer in HS, and was a zero star recruit despite being a 3-year starter. That means a lot of teams saw him and took a pass. What would Green do in the Mack Offense? Green certainly has a bigger arm than Johnson, and has not had the opportunity in the more pass-friendly offense. What about Marshman and Towns? Are they written off? Marshman looks faster than Johnson to me, but can't get on the field. Could he be used elsewhere? Towns is the highest rated QB as a recruit on our current QB roster, but what development has occurred? I think there are a lot of off-season QB development questions that should be asked of the QB coaching staff.
[/quote]

QB handling has been poor. That said, Johnson does stand out as a potential diamond in the rough. I like his throwing motion, no reason to think he can't be a successful passer, but we'll see. Don't know enough about his arm to say Green has a stronger one, Johnson seemed more accurate to me - the 3 for 10 stat you cite - how about him going 6 for 6 to open his career? I wouldn't rule out Green becoming the better passer, and there could be a graduate transfer QB coming, but Johnson is the early favorite.
12-01-2019 02:15 PM
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Ourland Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Post Season thoughts
We may win 6. I'm not overly optimistic. There's too much work to be done on offense. Too many question marks. The OL will be depleted again.
12-01-2019 03:58 PM
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Vegas Owl Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Post Season thoughts
Xmas Wish List for 2020 Rice football:

Consistently play 4Q each game.
QB development (results to date argue against this)
Continue upward trend for D
Design O around players we have, not the desired system
Strong recruiting class

No prognostication for next year yet.

Our goal should be to win C-USA every year.
12-01-2019 06:51 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #35
Post Season thoughts
(12-01-2019 06:51 PM)Vegas Owl Wrote:  Xmas Wish List for 2020 Rice football:

Consistently play 4Q each game.
QB development (results to date argue against this)
Continue upward trend for D
Design O around players we have, not the desired system
Strong recruiting class

No prognostication for next year yet.

Our goal should be to win C-USA every year.


Welp, until yesterday our 4Q had been played pretty **%# consistently all season!!!
12-01-2019 07:41 PM
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Tomball Owl Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Post Season thoughts
(12-01-2019 07:41 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 06:51 PM)Vegas Owl Wrote:  Xmas Wish List for 2020 Rice football:

Consistently play 4Q each game.
QB development (results to date argue against this)
Continue upward trend for D
Design O around players we have, not the desired system
Strong recruiting class

No prognostication for next year yet.

Our goal should be to win C-USA every year.


Welp, until yesterday our 4Q had been played pretty **%# consistently all season!!!

Good point!
12-01-2019 10:40 PM
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Intellectual_Brutality Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Post Season thoughts
(12-01-2019 03:58 PM)Ourland Wrote:  We may win 6. I'm not overly optimistic. There's too much work to be done on offense. Too many question marks. The OL will be depleted again.

Agreed. I'll be optimistic if we get some good transfers for OL and a clear winner emerges at QB. Last game was a reminder of just how shoddy we are at QB. Stewart had an atrocious game. With a better game from him we win comfortably, maybe even if Lockney doesn't get injured.
12-02-2019 12:00 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Post Season thoughts
(12-01-2019 12:36 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 12:18 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 12:12 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  
(12-01-2019 11:44 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  We win three games against weak teams, and all of a sudden we are talking 8-4?
Show me.
Pretty good chance we will have 8 weak teams on our schedule next year.
But yes, I would not bet any money on it quite yet...
I see 9. Lamar plus all of CUSA.
So, same as this year.

Ans we've got to get to the point that we beat all 9, every year. So far, we're at 3, one year. We have a long way to go.
12-02-2019 08:33 AM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Post Season thoughts
I'm not really sure why one wouldn't consider the Army game a possible win. They have a lot of senior starters. It's also way too early to chalk up Houston as a sure loss - let's see what their roster looks like before we make any predictions there. I will say the conference schedule shapes up as a harder set-up with tougher road games (La Tech, Marshall, USM, North Texas). And two of the four home games are UTEP and UTSA, which honestly are going to be potential wins, home or road.

It will be interesting if LSU wins the national title. When was the last time we hosted the defending national champion? Or even played the defending national champion? From my fading memory, I know we played Notre Dame in 1988, the year they won the national title, but that was on the road. And maybe we played Texas the year they won it with Vince Young? But I don't remember if we played them the following year? I guess LSU has a ways to go before they can make that claim though.
(This post was last modified: 12-02-2019 08:54 AM by Fort Bend Owl.)
12-02-2019 08:53 AM
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Post Season thoughts
We had No. 8 Texas at NRG in ‘06... We lost 52-7.
12-02-2019 08:56 AM
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