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Boise State & Cotton Bowl
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
(12-03-2019 03:33 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 03:31 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 03:25 PM)AlonsoWDC Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 09:16 PM)mempho_to_diego Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 11:26 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  On a side note, those who were saying "A one loss Memphis will still get in over an undefeated Boise..." should recognize that inertia exists in polling.

Heck, Memphis is only two spots ahead of BSU right now, and if BSU hadn't dropped a game, they would likely be #12 or so with no way for Memphis to jump seven spots in the final week.

doubt they would make it to #12 whilst being undefeated ...

They wouldn't. An undefeated Boise might be 14 right now. Might be.

Nah, but more importantly, no way a 1 loss Memphis team would be ahead of a 14-0 BSU team.

Where would an undefeated Memphis team rank compared to an undefeated Boise State team?

Since we're talking hypotheticals.

Not as highly, only because BSU was in the top 25 way before Memphis was based on preseason polls and BSU's early season win over FSU.

When Memphis entered the top 25 in Week 7 at #23, BSU was already at #14.

That's just too much ground to make up.
12-03-2019 03:39 PM
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Atlanta Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
6
(12-03-2019 03:33 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 03:31 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 03:25 PM)AlonsoWDC Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 09:16 PM)mempho_to_diego Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 11:26 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  On a side note, those who were saying "A one loss Memphis will still get in over an undefeated Boise..." should recognize that inertia exists in polling.

Heck, Memphis is only two spots ahead of BSU right now, and if BSU hadn't dropped a game, they would likely be #12 or so with no way for Memphis to jump seven spots in the final week.

doubt they would make it to #12 whilst being undefeated ...

They wouldn't. An undefeated Boise might be 14 right now. Might be.

Nah, but more importantly, no way a 1 loss Memphis team would be ahead of a 14-0 BSU team.

Where would an undefeated Memphis team rank compared to an undefeated Boise State team?

Since we're talking hypotheticals.

Pollsters were enamored early on with the Boise win over FSU & they never really corrected the early mis-conception as FSU kept losing. Maybe Memphis might have jumped Boise after last week's Cincy win but probably not before that.
(This post was last modified: 12-03-2019 03:43 PM by Atlanta.)
12-03-2019 03:42 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
(12-03-2019 03:42 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  6
(12-03-2019 03:33 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 03:31 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 03:25 PM)AlonsoWDC Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 09:16 PM)mempho_to_diego Wrote:  doubt they would make it to #12 whilst being undefeated ...

They wouldn't. An undefeated Boise might be 14 right now. Might be.

Nah, but more importantly, no way a 1 loss Memphis team would be ahead of a 14-0 BSU team.

Where would an undefeated Memphis team rank compared to an undefeated Boise State team?

Since we're talking hypotheticals.

Pollsters were enamored early on with the Boise win over FSU & they never really corrected the early mis-conception as FSU kept losing. Maybe Memphis might have jumped Boise after last week's Cincy win but probably not before that.

They aren't going to jump a team 4 or 5 spots in one week to "recorrect" something.

Memphis was #23 in week seven, then lost. Then re-entered week 10 at #25. In the last five weeks they have moved up to #16. They would probably be two or three spots higher right now--maybe #13--which is only one spot better than what BSU was in week 7.
12-03-2019 03:49 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
First, you're making too much direct correlation between the AP and the CFP rankings. They're similar and somewhat linear - but not equal. The CFP tends to discount G5 teams from the start.

Second, the CFP tends to group all of us G5s together - usually around the #20 slot. So we would have all probably started in a similar slot. Boise would have likely been ahead of all others, but no more than a couple of slots.

Finally, if we're all together, then it's easy for the CFP to jump a team a couple of positions and leapfrog another. Especially if the team is coming off of a run of top 25ish wins.

An undefeated Memphis would very possibly have leapfrogged an undefeated Boise. A 1-loss Memphis over undefeated Boise? Yeah, that was probably not happening this year.
12-03-2019 06:19 PM
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UofMstateU Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
(12-03-2019 03:42 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  6
(12-03-2019 03:33 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 03:31 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 03:25 PM)AlonsoWDC Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 09:16 PM)mempho_to_diego Wrote:  doubt they would make it to #12 whilst being undefeated ...

They wouldn't. An undefeated Boise might be 14 right now. Might be.

Nah, but more importantly, no way a 1 loss Memphis team would be ahead of a 14-0 BSU team.

Where would an undefeated Memphis team rank compared to an undefeated Boise State team?

Since we're talking hypotheticals.

Pollsters were enamored early on with the Boise win over FSU & they never really corrected the early mis-conception as FSU kept losing. Maybe Memphis might have jumped Boise after last week's Cincy win but probably not before that.

Yea, if those FSU players simply fall on that fumble, they wouldnt have had to endure being wrong about how good Boise was this season. Although, the turd nugget they nearly dropped right after that game to Marshall should have been another clue.
12-03-2019 06:24 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
(12-03-2019 06:19 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  First, you're making too much direct correlation between the AP and the CFP rankings. They're similar and somewhat linear - but not equal. The CFP tends to discount G5 teams from the start.

Second, the CFP tends to group all of us G5s together - usually around the #20 slot. So we would have all probably started in a similar slot. Boise would have likely been ahead of all others, but no more than a couple of slots.

Finally, if we're all together, then it's easy for the CFP to jump a team a couple of positions and leapfrog another. Especially if the team is coming off of a run of top 25ish wins.

An undefeated Memphis would very possibly have leapfrogged an undefeated Boise. A 1-loss Memphis over undefeated Boise? Yeah, that was probably not happening this year.

Nope. The gap would have been too far. It simply boils down on when Boise entered the rankings. Nothing more nothing less. They had a tremendous head-start over any other peer team.
12-03-2019 07:16 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
(12-03-2019 06:19 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  First, you're making too much direct correlation between the AP and the CFP rankings. They're similar and somewhat linear - but not equal. The CFP tends to discount G5 teams from the start.

Second, the CFP tends to group all of us G5s together - usually around the #20 slot. So we would have all probably started in a similar slot. Boise would have likely been ahead of all others, but no more than a couple of slots.

Finally, if we're all together, then it's easy for the CFP to jump a team a couple of positions and leapfrog another. Especially if the team is coming off of a run of top 25ish wins.

An undefeated Memphis would very possibly have leapfrogged an undefeated Boise. A 1-loss Memphis over undefeated Boise? Yeah, that was probably not happening this year.

Nope. The gap would have been too far. It simply boils down on when Boise entered the rankings. Nothing more nothing less. They had a tremendous head-start over any other peer team.
12-03-2019 07:16 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
So, Memphis' big win over Cincinnati got them a one spot bump. Woohoo!
(This post was last modified: 12-03-2019 07:17 PM by salukiblue.)
12-03-2019 07:17 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
(12-03-2019 07:16 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 06:19 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  First, you're making too much direct correlation between the AP and the CFP rankings. They're similar and somewhat linear - but not equal. The CFP tends to discount G5 teams from the start.

Second, the CFP tends to group all of us G5s together - usually around the #20 slot. So we would have all probably started in a similar slot. Boise would have likely been ahead of all others, but no more than a couple of slots.

Finally, if we're all together, then it's easy for the CFP to jump a team a couple of positions and leapfrog another. Especially if the team is coming off of a run of top 25ish wins.

An undefeated Memphis would very possibly have leapfrogged an undefeated Boise. A 1-loss Memphis over undefeated Boise? Yeah, that was probably not happening this year.

Nope. The gap would have been too far. It simply boils down on when Boise entered the rankings. Nothing more nothing less. They had a tremendous head-start over any other peer team.

Nope

Again, you're assuming AP poll = CFP poll. They do not. The numbers have been shown here before that the CFP ranks G5 teams lower than the AP in their initial poll.

And it's not a linear slide. The higher rated G5 teams get devalued more than the lower ranked ones. If I was more cynical, I would say they are making sure that the highest rated team doesn't start out high enough to get into the top group - but they want to have multiple teams in the rankings so as not to appear too obvious.

I mean look at the first week's CFP rankings this year. Memphis, Cincy, and Boise all had 1 loss. We were all lumped together, but both Memphis and Cincy were ranked higher than Boise.

Heck, even this week, a 2-loss Cincy is just one spot behind 1-loss Boise. You really think it's inconceivable that if Cincy were to beat Memphis that they could not possibly move up one spot to overtake Boise?
12-03-2019 10:43 PM
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MvETigers Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
AP & Coaches have Bama at 9. CFP has them at 12 behind Auburn.

Cincy lost and dropped one spot behind Boise, if you don't think they will leapfrog Boise if they were to win, just can't help you.

Boise has maxed. They aren't going to rise in the polls regardless of winning on Saturday. Memphis can move up a spot or two with a convincing win, Cincy will move up 1 spot with a win. Hint: it also helps Ohio State for Cincy to be ranked highly. Boise doesn't help any blue bloods.

The people that think the media loves them are incorrect. It isn't the case anymore.
12-04-2019 12:09 AM
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fsquid Offline
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Boise State & Cotton Bowl
No way we get jumped now

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12-04-2019 06:28 AM
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geosnooker2000 Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
(12-04-2019 12:09 AM)MvETigers Wrote:  AP & Coaches have Bama at 9. CFP has them at 12 behind Auburn.

Cincy lost and dropped one spot behind Boise, if you don't think they will leapfrog Boise if they were to win, just can't help you.

Boise has maxed. They aren't going to rise in the polls regardless of winning on Saturday. Memphis can move up a spot or two with a convincing win, Cincy will move up 1 spot with a win. Hint: it also helps Ohio State for Cincy to be ranked highly. Boise doesn't help any blue bloods.

The people that think the media loves them are incorrect. It isn't the case anymore.

I agree with everything you said here, except Ohio State don't need no help from Cincy.
12-04-2019 10:15 AM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
(12-03-2019 10:43 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 07:16 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 06:19 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  First, you're making too much direct correlation between the AP and the CFP rankings. They're similar and somewhat linear - but not equal. The CFP tends to discount G5 teams from the start.

Second, the CFP tends to group all of us G5s together - usually around the #20 slot. So we would have all probably started in a similar slot. Boise would have likely been ahead of all others, but no more than a couple of slots.

Finally, if we're all together, then it's easy for the CFP to jump a team a couple of positions and leapfrog another. Especially if the team is coming off of a run of top 25ish wins.

An undefeated Memphis would very possibly have leapfrogged an undefeated Boise. A 1-loss Memphis over undefeated Boise? Yeah, that was probably not happening this year.

Nope. The gap would have been too far. It simply boils down on when Boise entered the rankings. Nothing more nothing less. They had a tremendous head-start over any other peer team.

Nope

Again, you're assuming AP poll = CFP poll. They do not. The numbers have been shown here before that the CFP ranks G5 teams lower than the AP in their initial poll.

And it's not a linear slide. The higher rated G5 teams get devalued more than the lower ranked ones. If I was more cynical, I would say they are making sure that the highest rated team doesn't start out high enough to get into the top group - but they want to have multiple teams in the rankings so as not to appear too obvious.

I mean look at the first week's CFP rankings this year. Memphis, Cincy, and Boise all had 1 loss. We were all lumped together, but both Memphis and Cincy were ranked higher than Boise.

Heck, even this week, a 2-loss Cincy is just one spot behind 1-loss Boise. You really think it's inconceivable that if Cincy were to beat Memphis that they could not possibly move up one spot to overtake Boise?

If you look at the AP poll for the 1st week, Memphis was 2 spots ahead of BSU and 2 spots behind Cinci.

Like I noted correctly, the CFP poll mirrors, withing a couple of spots, the AP poll.

That is the point--the three teams re/entered the AP poll all about the same time so they had the same ranking frame of reference.

That would NOT have been the case if BSU had remained undefeated. They were already #14 in week 7 and, through attrition, would have likely been 10 or so by week 11.

So, if they were 10-12 by week 11, the CFP folks would have slotted them no worse than 15 in week 11. Then, through attrition, would have moved up at least 2 spots in the past four weeks.

It's not rocket science. The CFP poll generally mirrors the AP poll the same week.

15 of the 25 teams in the initial CFP were slotted either the same spot as the AP poll or 1 spot different. Only three were slotted 3 or more spots from the AP poll.

It literally just depends on when you enter the AP poll.
(This post was last modified: 12-04-2019 10:29 AM by salukiblue.)
12-04-2019 10:24 AM
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salukiblue Offline
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RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
Then, the next polls adjusted even more to one another with the top 18 teams all either being ranked the same (10) or within one spot (8).
12-04-2019 10:29 AM
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MvETigers Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
(12-04-2019 10:15 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  
(12-04-2019 12:09 AM)MvETigers Wrote:  AP & Coaches have Bama at 9. CFP has them at 12 behind Auburn.

Cincy lost and dropped one spot behind Boise, if you don't think they will leapfrog Boise if they were to win, just can't help you.

Boise has maxed. They aren't going to rise in the polls regardless of winning on Saturday. Memphis can move up a spot or two with a convincing win, Cincy will move up 1 spot with a win. Hint: it also helps Ohio State for Cincy to be ranked highly. Boise doesn't help any blue bloods.

The people that think the media loves them are incorrect. It isn't the case anymore.

I agree with everything you said here, except Ohio State don't need no help from Cincy.

Actually, they do. It gives them a stronger case for the #1 spot than LSU because it's their fifth Top 20 win. LSU will only have 4. That was a major debate point according to the Committee Chair.
12-04-2019 01:15 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Boise State & Cotton Bowl
(12-04-2019 10:24 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 10:43 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 07:16 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 06:19 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  First, you're making too much direct correlation between the AP and the CFP rankings. They're similar and somewhat linear - but not equal. The CFP tends to discount G5 teams from the start.

Second, the CFP tends to group all of us G5s together - usually around the #20 slot. So we would have all probably started in a similar slot. Boise would have likely been ahead of all others, but no more than a couple of slots.

Finally, if we're all together, then it's easy for the CFP to jump a team a couple of positions and leapfrog another. Especially if the team is coming off of a run of top 25ish wins.

An undefeated Memphis would very possibly have leapfrogged an undefeated Boise. A 1-loss Memphis over undefeated Boise? Yeah, that was probably not happening this year.

Nope. The gap would have been too far. It simply boils down on when Boise entered the rankings. Nothing more nothing less. They had a tremendous head-start over any other peer team.

Nope

Again, you're assuming AP poll = CFP poll. They do not. The numbers have been shown here before that the CFP ranks G5 teams lower than the AP in their initial poll.

And it's not a linear slide. The higher rated G5 teams get devalued more than the lower ranked ones. If I was more cynical, I would say they are making sure that the highest rated team doesn't start out high enough to get into the top group - but they want to have multiple teams in the rankings so as not to appear too obvious.

I mean look at the first week's CFP rankings this year. Memphis, Cincy, and Boise all had 1 loss. We were all lumped together, but both Memphis and Cincy were ranked higher than Boise.

Heck, even this week, a 2-loss Cincy is just one spot behind 1-loss Boise. You really think it's inconceivable that if Cincy were to beat Memphis that they could not possibly move up one spot to overtake Boise?

If you look at the AP poll for the 1st week, Memphis was 2 spots ahead of BSU and 2 spots behind Cinci.

Like I noted correctly, the CFP poll mirrors, withing a couple of spots, the AP poll.

That is the point--the three teams re/entered the AP poll all about the same time so they had the same ranking frame of reference.

That would NOT have been the case if BSU had remained undefeated. They were already #14 in week 7 and, through attrition, would have likely been 10 or so by week 11.

So, if they were 10-12 by week 11, the CFP folks would have slotted them no worse than 15 in week 11. Then, through attrition, would have moved up at least 2 spots in the past four weeks.

It's not rocket science. The CFP poll generally mirrors the AP poll the same week.

15 of the 25 teams in the initial CFP were slotted either the same spot as the AP poll or 1 spot different. Only three were slotted 3 or more spots from the AP poll.

It literally just depends on when you enter the AP poll.

You're wrong on the "mirror" of the CFP to the AP. That's the problem. Your whole argument is built on a faulty premise. You looked at all teams. Look at just the G5 teams. They are treated differently.

In the first CFP ranking of the year (for the history of CFP rankings), the top rated G5 team is ranked on average 3 slots lower than the AP. All the other G5 teams are about 2 slots lower on average in the CFP. And in recent years, the trend is even stronger (3 slots versus 1 slot).

This is the bunching of the G5 teams I mentioned earlier. The CFP drops the top team about 3 spots, then slides the others in more closely to where they are in the AP. Stated differently, they leapfrog some P5 teams over the top G5 team.

It's not rocket science because it's not any science. You're assuming that the AP = CFP. It doesn't.

And you're ignoring the current ranking that shows Cincy with 2 losses just ONE SPOT behind 1-loss Boise.
17 - Memphis
19 - Boise
20 - Cincy
Your whole argument says that you think it's impossible for Cincy to move up with a win over us this week. I think it's entirely probable that they could simply swap Cincy and Memphis, leaving Boise where they are.

But we will never know.
12-04-2019 06:13 PM
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