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Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
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greyowl72 Offline
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Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
Last game of the season. Last I checked we were picked by 7.
Over on the conference board we are getting a lot of love for this one, as we’ve won the last 2 and the Miners are having a dreadful season...worse than ours.
It always makes me nervous when we get picked as a favorite for an away game. Especially when we’re playing in a foreign country.
I think it will be close.
I’ve actually been to the last couple of Rice-UTEP games out in El Paso and I love watching a game at the Sun Bowl, but I’m out on the East Coast for Thanksgiving and won’t make this one.

I think the Owls prevail in a close one in front of a nearly empty stadium. ...21-17.
11-29-2019 11:29 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
27-21 Rice
11-30-2019 01:02 AM
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Ourland Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
34 - 14, Owls
11-30-2019 02:36 AM
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Fort Bend Owl Online
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
I predict Johnson gets in for at least one touchdown producing drive. And the Owls enter the 2020 season as one of 13 teams with a 3 game or longer win streak.
11-30-2019 06:12 AM
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DFW Owl Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
(11-29-2019 11:29 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  Especially when we’re playing in a foreign country.

Actually the Sun Bowl is in the USA by about 400 yards.
11-30-2019 07:54 AM
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WarOwl1 Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
Games we’re favored in tend to worry me.

I think we take another step in this program if we absolutely bully and throttle the Miners in every phase today. Time will tell!

Owls- 52
Miners- 10
11-30-2019 08:38 AM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
(11-30-2019 07:54 AM)DFW Owl Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 11:29 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  Especially when we’re playing in a foreign country.

Actually the Sun Bowl is in the USA by about 400 yards.


No problem, we can gain 400 yards.
11-30-2019 08:39 AM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
It’ll be a huge Rice lead at half time, then we take the second half off and hold on to win.
Prediction:
Rice 45
UTEP 33 1/3

We need this win, plus losses by NT & TSA to make fourth place (midpack) in the West. Which would be pretty flippin impressive after a 0-9 start.
11-30-2019 08:45 AM
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greyowl72 Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
(11-30-2019 07:54 AM)DFW Owl Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 11:29 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  Especially when we’re playing in a foreign country.

Actually the Sun Bowl is in the USA by about 400 yards.
Yes, it is!!
Every time we play out there I try to make the trip. For one, it’s a very unique and historic venue. And El Paso is an interesting place. Great food too!
11-30-2019 09:09 AM
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WarOwl1 Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
Games we’re favored in tend to worry me.

I think we take another step in this program if we absolutely bully and throttle the Miners in every phase today. Time will tell!

Owls- 52
Miners- 10
11-30-2019 09:50 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
(11-30-2019 07:54 AM)DFW Owl Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 11:29 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  Especially when we’re playing in a foreign country.

Actually the Sun Bowl is in the USA by about 400 yards.

It's a sanctuary stadium. If you can get there, free admission.
11-30-2019 09:54 AM
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loki_the_bubba Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
Rice takes a 30 point lead into halftime. UTEP misses a field goal at the buzzer.

Rice 30
UTEP 27
11-30-2019 10:00 AM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
(11-30-2019 10:00 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Rice takes a 30 point lead into halftime. UTEP misses a field goal at the buzzer.

Rice 30
UTEP 27


Crap, I hope they don’t go to replay to give them more time and two more attempts at it #NotStillBitter
11-30-2019 10:04 AM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
(11-30-2019 09:54 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 07:54 AM)DFW Owl Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 11:29 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  Especially when we’re playing in a foreign country.

Actually the Sun Bowl is in the USA by about 400 yards.

It's a sanctuary stadium. If you can get there, free admission.

One could say the same about UTEP and it's 100% acceptance rate
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2019 11:46 AM by westsidewolf1989.)
11-30-2019 11:45 AM
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WRCisforgotten79 Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
(11-30-2019 11:45 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 09:54 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 07:54 AM)DFW Owl Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 11:29 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  Especially when we’re playing in a foreign country.

Actually the Sun Bowl is in the USA by about 400 yards.

It's a sanctuary stadium. If you can get there, free admission.

One could say the same about UTEP and it's 100% acceptance rate

I looked at the list and was surprised to see that Weber State was also at 100% ("surprised" in the sense that I had actually heard of another school in the 100% club).

A quick perusal of acceptance rates for C-USA shows that Southern Miss is at 98%, Western Kentucky is at 95%, and UAB at 92%. I'm so proud to be in this conference!
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2019 01:36 PM by WRCisforgotten79.)
11-30-2019 01:17 PM
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Jonathan Sadow Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
This game is about as much of a lock for Rice as one could expect. It's not so much because UTEP is very bad, which they are, but because the Miners are so consistently very bad. Let's look at the performance ratings derived from Massey's power ratings this season. I've listed the ratings for each game for each team:

Rice:
@Army 45.70
Wake Forest 34.47
vs. Texas 28.20
Baylor 58.28
Louisiana Tech 40.27
@UAB 32.05
@UTSA 29.36
Southern Miss 31.35
Marshall 32.58
@Middle Tennessee 47.94
@North Texas 41.85

UTEP:
HBU 14.57
@Texas Tech 27.15
Nevada 26.22
@Southern Miss 33.21
UTSA 17.46
@FIU 29.83
Louisiana Tech 22.11
@North Texas 15.84
Charlotte 30.49
@UAB 20.05
@New Mexico State 22.34

Rice has the six highest ratings out of the 22 total, while UTEP possesses the lowest eight. A U-test run on these distributions shows a significant difference at the 5% level, meaning that by this measure there's a 95% chance that the Owls will outperform the Miners in any single game.

With sample sizes of greater than ten each, the Mann-Whitney U distribution tends to approach the normal distribution, meaning that one could use the normal statistical functions like mean and standard deviation on this sample and expect meaningful results. For Rice, the mean is 38.37 with a standard deviation of 9.38; for UTEP, the numbers are 23.57 and 6.28, respectively. Using the normal probability distribution, the Owls' probability of performing better than the Miners is well above 95%; in fact, it's better than 99.9%. The reason for Rice's high probability of outperforming UTEP mainly has to do with the Miners very low standard deviation; it's by far the lowest in C-USA (the Owls have the second-lowest) and likely is among the lowest in Division I FBS. As standard deviation is in essence a measure of how variable a team's performance is, it forms the basis of my previous statement: UTEP is not only very bad, they're consistently very bad. That's why it would be highly improbable for Rice, as bad as the Owls have been at times this season, to lose this game.
11-30-2019 01:37 PM
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WRCisforgotten79 Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
My system has Rice as a 9 point favorite.
11-30-2019 01:59 PM
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temchugh Offline
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RE: Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
Jonathan, your probabilities are off. If your performance numbers are correct than UTEP wins if Rice plays one standard deviation below average AND UTEP plays one standard deviation above average.

The odds of Rice performing worse than one standard deviation below their mean is one in six (17%). Same for UTEP playing one standard deviation or better above their average. Assuming these are independent (not sure that is true from how the ratings work), then the odds of both happening are about 3%; way above 0.1%.

My guess is that UTEP odds of winning are closer to 17%. I.e., if Rice plays much worse than average, then UTEP will automatically be much better than average.
11-30-2019 02:03 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
(11-30-2019 01:17 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 11:45 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 09:54 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 07:54 AM)DFW Owl Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 11:29 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  Especially when we’re playing in a foreign country.

Actually the Sun Bowl is in the USA by about 400 yards.

It's a sanctuary stadium. If you can get there, free admission.

One could say the same about UTEP and it's 100% acceptance rate

I looked at the list and was surprised to see that Weber State was also at 100% ("surprised" in the sense that I had actually heard of another school in the 100% club).

A quick perusal of acceptance rates for C-USA shows that Southern Miss is at 98%, Western Kentucky is at 95%, and UAB at 92%. I'm so proud to be in this conference!


Well why do you think Rice’s application to CUSA was accepted?
A. 90+% Acceptance rate!!!
11-30-2019 04:26 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Rice at UTEP Football. 11-30-2019. Prediction and Roll Call
(11-30-2019 08:45 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  It’ll be a huge Rice lead at half time, then we take the second half off and hold on to win.
Prediction:
Rice 45
UTEP 33 1/3

We need this win, plus losses by NT & TSA to make fourth place (midpack) in the West. Which would be pretty flippin impressive after a 0-9 start.

Pool winner #1, closest to the actual spread (11.67 vs 14)


(11-30-2019 02:36 AM)Ourland Wrote:  34 - 14, Owls

Pool winner #2, minimum sum of deviations from each team’s score (6)
11-30-2019 09:53 PM
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