(11-30-2019 06:12 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I predict Johnson gets in for at least one touchdown producing drive. And the Owls enter the 2020 season as one of 13 teams with a 3 game or longer win streak.

If we are indeed one of 13 teams with a 3 game or longer win streak heading into 2020, I demand a recount for pool winner! (and I just randomly selected that number - I have no idea how many teams will have that type of win streak heading into next year).

(11-30-2019 09:57 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(11-30-2019 06:12 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I predict Johnson gets in for at least one touchdown producing drive. And the Owls enter the 2020 season as one of 13 teams with a 3 game or longer win streak.

If we are indeed one of 13 teams with a 3 game or longer win streak heading into 2020, I demand a recount for pool winner! (and I just randomly selected that number - I have no idea how many teams will have that type of win streak heading into next year).

Half of the bowls teams won't.

Yes I realize that. There are about 27 teams currently with a 3-game or longer win streak. Some will be eliminated before bowl season (if you're not counting a conference championship game as a bowl game, which you really shouldn't). Obviously, only one BCS playoff team will have a win streak entering 2020. So then it will come down to how many lose in bowl games. It might be close to 13, but I bet you it will be less than that?

(11-30-2019 10:01 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Yes I realize that. There are about 27 teams currently with a 3-game or longer win streak. Some will be eliminated before bowl season (if you're not counting a conference championship game as a bowl game, which you really shouldn't). Obviously, only one BCS playoff team will have a win streak entering 2020. So then it will come down to how many lose in bowl games. It might be close to 13, but I bet you it will be less than that?

I will take that bet. There will be 14 or more teams on current 3+ game win streaks entering the fall 2020 season.

Don’t forget to add in all the teams with current 2-game streaks that are going to win their bowl games.

How many teams that do not go to a bowl will end on a 3-game winning streak?

We don't appear to have to have an other games post this week, is I'll post here.

I was at the Iron Bowl yesterday. In addition to a heck of a ball game, we were struck by the atmosphere. My GF said that she had not seen anything like it since a rugby international test match in South Africa ten years ago.

I don't remember any Rice game ever with anything approaching that kind of atmosphere. The closest was probably the LSU games, back when we were good enough to make that series competitive. TexasU games drew large crowds, but the intensity and atmosphere were just never the same. It was more like Horn fans smugly expected to dominate, and were disappointed when they didn't. And aTm simply didn't get to be really good until we got to be really bad. I really don't recall any SWC games, even Texas/u-aTm, getting there. Maybe TexasU-OU comes closer than anything I can recall, when both teams are good.

I know a lot of people miss the SWC. I miss the kind of game-day atmosphere I saw yesterday. I grew up with it, and that seemed normal to me at the time. Of course, the Iron Bowl is probably over the top. It is the number one sporting event in an entire state for a year, and that state lives off the results for the other 364 days. Rice can't get there, but it would be nice off we could get at least somewhat closer.

This one really wasn't that meaningful. Neither one really had serious playoff chances. The favorite comment of Auburn fans afterwards was, "At least we killed whatever playoff chances you had," and the number one comment of Alabama fans was, "Looks like you are stuck with Gus for another year."

As far as Gus, I remember a lot of people on here wanted him to come here at one time. His rushing schemes are well crafted, but his passing attack is unsophisticated HS level stuff. It just relies totally on a receiver's ability to beat a DB or the QBs ability to make incredible throws, with none of the stretches and stresses that RUOwls talk about. There are no--or very few--three-level stretches, with one receiver going deep, another running medium depth, and one or more others running short stuff. He probably runs the ball on passing downs more than Bailiff did. A lot of it is run, run, pass, punt. It works when you have Cam Newton at QB, not so well when you don't.

One nice touch I noted. Joe Burrow came out for pregame last night wearing a jersey with his name spelled "Burreaux" on it. He really seems to have adapted to and adopted Louisiana, and Tiger fans seem to have embraced him. It's nice story.

I disagree with your comment that neither team had much of a chance to make the playoffs. Prior to the game, Alabama was sitting at #5, and there was a pretty good chance that #4 Georgia would lose the SEC title game to LSU, and fall back into the also rans. Had the Tide won, I would have put their odds at no worse than 50-50 at making the playoffs, and probably closer to 70%.

(12-01-2019 08:43 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  I disagree with your comment that neither team had much of a chance to make the playoffs. Prior to the game, Alabama was sitting at #5, and there was a pretty good chance that #4 Georgia would lose the SEC title game to LSU, and fall back into the also rans. Had the Tide won, I would have put their odds at no worse than 50-50 at making the playoffs, and probably closer to 70%.

By serious chances, I meant chances to win. Without Tua, Alabama would have very little chance of beating Ohio State, LSU, or Clemson (the latter two having beaten Bama with Tua in the last 12 months). That #5 ranking was mostly accomplished with Tua, and without Tua they really don’t have the eye appeal factor needed to make it as a non-conference-champion. I think either Utah or Oklahoma could jump over Bama with a conference championship. I felt before yesterday that there is a fair chance that the playoff field ends up being Ohio State, Clemson, the LSU-Georgia winner, and the LSU-Georgia loser. I still think that, and I think there is a fair chance that those are indeed the best 4 teams.

(12-01-2019 09:27 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 08:43 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  I disagree with your comment that neither team had much of a chance to make the playoffs. Prior to the game, Alabama was sitting at #5, and there was a pretty good chance that #4 Georgia would lose the SEC title game to LSU, and fall back into the also rans. Had the Tide won, I would have put their odds at no worse than 50-50 at making the playoffs, and probably closer to 70%.

By serious chances, I meant chances to win. Without Tua, Alabama would have very little chance of beating Ohio State, LSU, or Clemson (the latter two having beaten Bama with Tua in the last 12 months). That #5 ranking was mostly accomplished with Tua, and without Tua they really don’t have the eye appeal factor needed to make it as a non-conference-champion. I think either Utah or Oklahoma could jump over Bama with a conference championship. I felt before yesterday that there is a fair chance that the playoff field ends up being Ohio State, Clemson, the LSU-Georgia winner, and the LSU-Georgia loser. I still think that, and I think there is a fair chance that those are indeed the best 4 teams.

I think OSU and LSU are locks even if they lose in their conference championship game. No way a 2-loss Georgia gets in if they lose to LSU. Rather, that 4th team would likely be the winner of the Big 12 title game.

Rice will start 2020 with a longer winning streak than Alabama.

(12-01-2019 09:36 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  I think OSU and LSU are locks even if they lose in their conference championship game. No way a 2-loss Georgia gets in if they lose to LSU. Rather, that 4th team would likely be the winner of the Big 12 title game.

Assuming that Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU each win its respective conference championship, that 4th spot will be between the Pac 12 champion (only if it's Utah) and the Big 12 champion (only if it's Oklahoma). What will be interesting is if Baylor wins, and the committee must choose between 1-loss Baylor and 2-loss Georgia. Since the Big 12 is the top-rated conference this season, and because Georgia lost at home to 5-7 South Carolina, the choice is obvious. But .... TV ratings ....

(12-01-2019 10:30 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 09:36 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  I think OSU and LSU are locks even if they lose in their conference championship game. No way a 2-loss Georgia gets in if they lose to LSU. Rather, that 4th team would likely be the winner of the Big 12 title game.

Assuming that Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU each win its respective conference championship, that 4th spot will be between the Pac 12 champion (only if it's Utah) and the Big 12 champion (only if it's Oklahoma). What will be interesting is if Baylor wins, and the committee must choose between 1-loss Baylor and 2-loss Georgia. Since the Big 12 is the top-rated conference this season, and because Georgia lost at home to 5-7 South Carolina, the choice is obvious. But .... TV ratings ....

I am actually hoping for Oklahoma, because Hurts is from Houston and because I admittedly like what Alex Grinch has done with that defense, but I'm not sure they get in ahead of Utah. Reputation probably helps if it comes down to that. If Utah and Oklahoma both lose, and LSU wins, it's down to Baylor versus Georgia, as you note. Probably Georgia on reputation, unless LSU blows them out. And Georgia is going to be short-handed because of injury and a WR losing his head. If Georgia beats LSU, I think it's Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, and LSU.

(12-01-2019 07:54 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  How many teams that do not go to a bowl will end on a 3-game winning streak?

Possibly Kent State (who is 6-6). There are 4 MAC teams with a winning record, and another 4 at 6-6, but I don't know how many bowl slots they have as a conference. Two of the 6-6 teams (Toledo and Eastern Michigan) have losing conference records, so you'd assume Kent State and Ohio (the other 6-6 team) would get awarded a bowl over those teams since they were both 5-3 in the MAC.

Other than Kent State (and they may go to a bowl), there likely is no one - unless there is a team like USC on probation? (I don't know if they're on probation or not - they probably should be even if they're not). Missouri can't go to a bowl but they just ended their 6-6 season with a 1-game win streak (and then promptly fired their coach).

(12-01-2019 11:00 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 10:30 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 09:36 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  I think OSU and LSU are locks even if they lose in their conference championship game. No way a 2-loss Georgia gets in if they lose to LSU. Rather, that 4th team would likely be the winner of the Big 12 title game.

Assuming that Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU each win its respective conference championship, that 4th spot will be between the Pac 12 champion (only if it's Utah) and the Big 12 champion (only if it's Oklahoma). What will be interesting is if Baylor wins, and the committee must choose between 1-loss Baylor and 2-loss Georgia. Since the Big 12 is the top-rated conference this season, and because Georgia lost at home to 5-7 South Carolina, the choice is obvious. But .... TV ratings ....

I am actually hoping for Oklahoma, because Hurts is from Houston and because I admittedly like what Alex Grinch has done with that defense, but I'm not sure they get in ahead of Utah. Reputation probably helps if it comes down to that. If Utah and Oklahoma both lose, and LSU wins, it's down to Baylor versus Georgia, as you note. Probably Georgia on reputation, unless LSU blows them out. And Georgia is going to be short-handed because of injury and a WR losing his head. If Georgia beats LSU, I think it's Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, and LSU.

The chances of this happening are probably less than 1%, but another possibility is that if OU and Utah lose, and Wisconsin beat Ohio State, you're probably looking at Wisconsin getting consideration for the CFP as well.

(12-01-2019 09:42 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Rice will start 2020 with a longer winning streak than Alabama.

And that goes for both overall AND head-to-head!!

(11-30-2019 02:03 PM)temchugh Wrote:  Jonathan, your probabilities are off. If your performance numbers are correct than UTEP wins if Rice plays one standard deviation below average AND UTEP plays one standard deviation above average.

The odds of Rice performing worse than one standard deviation below their mean is one in six (17%). Same for UTEP playing one standard deviation or better above their average. Assuming these are independent (not sure that is true from how the ratings work), then the odds of both happening are about 3%; way above 0.1%.

My guess is that UTEP odds of winning are closer to 17%. I.e., if Rice plays much worse than average, then UTEP will automatically be much better than average.

I was perhaps unclear in stating the origin of the probabilities. The probabilities I listed are those derived from the Mann-Whitney U statistic, not from the means and standard deviations that I listed from the performance ratings of all the games that both teams had played this season. You're correct in that if you use the mean and standard deviation of the performance ratings, measures which presume a normal distribution of results, you get the probabilities you listed. However, I'm not convinced that the results are normally-distributed, which is why I use a non-parametric test of significance, the Mann-Whitney U-test, in making these comparisons. If you attempt to approximate a probability from the U statistic, the difference between the two teams turns out to be the equivalent of over three standard deviations, equating to the 99.5+% chance of Rice performing better. Inasmuch as parametric tests have more power than non-parametric tests, your probabilities may be indeed more accurate than mine; however, that can't be said with mathematical certainty.

One other thing that must be pointed out is that a team that has the higher performance rating in a game isn't necessarily the winner. For example, in the Baylor-Rice game earlier this year, which the Bears won by eight points, their performance rating as of this posting was 47.10, while the losing Owls produced a 60.27. The performance rating is sort of relative to a team's innate ability. You can think of it this way: innately, Baylor is such a good team that it can perform poorly and still win a game, and Rice is such a bad team that it can perform great and still lose a game, depending on the quality of the opposition.