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dubcat14 Offline
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Week 13 Bowl Projections
Starting a thread mainly because The Athletic projection excites me.

One of 3 or 4 teams they made special note of:
From Stewart Mandel/The Athletic: "I’ve spent the past several weeks trying to find creative ways to land top-20 team Cincinnati a decent bowl destination outside of the AAC’s partners should it lose the conference championship game, and this week’s guess is my best yet: A trip to Nashville to face former Conference USA/Big East rival Louisville. A very similar pairing: Kentucky-Indiana in the Gator Bowl."

Special Note from USAToday: The one other key part to note will be the American Athletic Conference pecking order. As is, the league’s bowl-ties are AWFUL – a few of the stars are going to end up punching well below their respective weights. For now, the call is that Memphis and Cincinnati will split their two showdowns – with Memphis winning in the regular-season finale, and UC pulling off the victory in a rematch in the Conference USA Championship.

If that doesn’t happen and if the AAC champion is 12-1 and goes to the Cotton Bowl instead of projected Mountain West champ Boise State, then things get really nutty.


The Athletic
Music City Bowl - (SEC 3-8 vs. ACC 3-6)
Dec. 30, ESPN at 4 p.m. ET
Projection: Cincinnati* vs. Louisville

ESPN
AutoZone Liberty Bowl - (Big 12 vs. SEC)
Dec. 31, ESPN at 3:45 p.m.
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. TCU

USAToday
Birmingham Bowl – (American vs. SEC)
Jan. 2, ESPN at 3 p.m.
Projection: Cincinnati vs. UAB

SportingNews
Boca Raton Bowl
Dec. 21, ABC at 3:30 p.m. ET
Tie-In: American vs. MAC
Projection: Cincinnati vs. FAU

247Sports
Birmingham Bowl – (American vs. SEC)
Jan. 2, ESPN at 3 p.m.
Projection: Cincinnati vs. UAB

WatchStadium (Brett McMurphy)
Birmingham Bowl – (American vs. SEC)
Jan. 2, ESPN at 3 p.m.
Projection: Cincinnati vs. UAB**

Athlon Sports
Gasparilla Bowl - (American vs. C-USA)
Dec. 23, ESPN at 2:30 p.m.
Projection: Cincinnati vs. FAU
 
11-26-2019 09:09 AM
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Post: #2
RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
(11-26-2019 09:09 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  Special Note from USAToday: The one other key part to note will be the American Athletic Conference pecking order. As is, the league’s bowl-ties are AWFUL – a few of the stars are going to end up punching well below their respective weights. For now, the call is that Memphis and Cincinnati will split their two showdowns – with Memphis winning in the regular-season finale, and UC pulling off the victory in a rematch in the Conference USA Championship.

If that doesn’t happen and if the AAC champion is 12-1 and goes to the Cotton Bowl instead of projected Mountain West champ Boise State, then things get really nutty.

Glad USA Today thinks it's 1996
 
11-26-2019 09:13 AM
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DJBEARCAT Offline
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
That matchup with Louisville would be interesting....it would be nice to get the Keg back.
 
11-26-2019 09:14 AM
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Billy_Bearcat Offline
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
I would love any of those first 3
 
11-26-2019 09:24 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
Looks like the SEC will be able to fill their bowl slots, if Miss St and Mizzou win, with the exception of 1.....
pending that they get an Orange Bowl invite. My guess is they don't fill the Independence Bowl.

Edit Mizzou is not eligible for post season play. SEC could also get an at large to Cotton Bowl.
So 2-3 bowls SEC won't fill, Independence, Birmingham, and possibly Texas Bowl.
 
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2019 10:09 AM by SuperFlyBCat.)
11-26-2019 09:50 AM
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dubcat14 Offline
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
(11-26-2019 09:50 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Looks like the SEC will be able to fill their bowl slots, if Miss St and Mizzou win, with the exception of 1.....
pending that they get an Orange Bowl invite. My guess is they don't fill the Independence Bowl.

Yep 'ELI5'ing for myself because I was confused but I think I have it right..

Outside of the playoff/NY6 they have 9 bowl assignments. The bottom 3 in terms of stature are the Belk, Birmingham, and Independence. (The Birmingham can't be filled with AAC because we are the opponent. Which turns one of our potential P5 bowl games into G5.)

Assuming Mizzou beats Arkansas (likely) and Miss State beats Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl (toss up), they have 10 bowl eligible teams. 3 will in the Playoff/NY6 which leaves 7 teams for 9 bowls. They likely won't be our opponent for the Birmingham which is why projections have UAB, FAU, etc as the AAC opponent. That leaves the Independence versus ACC and possibly the Belk versus ACC needing to be filled.

Pull for Ole Miss versus Miss State to open up another bowl spot.
 
11-26-2019 10:17 AM
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dubcat14 Offline
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
(11-26-2019 09:50 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Edit Mizzou is not eligible for post season play. SEC could also get an at large to Cotton Bowl.
So 2-3 bowls SEC won't fill, Independence, Birmingham, and possibly Texas Bowl.

I believe there hasn't been a ruling made on Missouri yet and no one seems to know if they're eligible or not. Most platforms are assuming the NCAA won't rule in time and they're assigning them to a bowl in their projections. ESPN and The Athletic both has them in the Belk..
 
11-26-2019 10:20 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
(11-26-2019 10:17 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  
(11-26-2019 09:50 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Looks like the SEC will be able to fill their bowl slots, if Miss St and Mizzou win, with the exception of 1.....
pending that they get an Orange Bowl invite. My guess is they don't fill the Independence Bowl.

Yep 'ELI5'ing for myself because I was confused but I think I have it right..

Outside of the playoff/NY6 they have 9 bowl assignments. The bottom 3 in terms of stature are the Belk, Birmingham, and Independence. (The Birmingham can't be filled with AAC because we are the opponent. Which turns one of our potential P5 bowl games into G5.)

Assuming Mizzou beats Arkansas (likely) and Miss State beats Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl (toss up), they have 10 bowl eligible teams. 3 will in the Playoff/NY6 which leaves 7 teams for 9 bowls. They likely won't be our opponent for the Birmingham which is why projections have UAB, FAU, etc as the AAC opponent. That leaves the Independence versus ACC and possibly the Belk versus ACC needing to be filled.

Pull for Ole Miss versus Miss State to open up another bowl spot.

Mizzou is supposed to be not eligible. Many say SEC to Orange. 1 to playoff.
then
College Football Playoff Semifinal: If Selected

1. Sugar Bowl vs. Big 12

2. Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl vs. Big Ten or ACC

The SEC will assign teams to the respective bowls in this pool.

– AutoZone Liberty Bowl vs. Big 12
– Belk Bowl vs. ACC
– Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl vs. ACC or Big Ten (most likely the ACC)
– Outback Bowl vs. Big Ten
– TaxSlayer Bowl vs. ACC or Big Ten (most likely the Big Ten)
– Texas Bowl vs. Big 12

Second Tier

– Jared Birmingham Bowl vs. American Athletic
– Walk-On’s Independence Bowl vs. ACC
 
11-26-2019 10:24 AM
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OKIcat Offline
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
(11-26-2019 09:14 AM)DJBEARCAT Wrote:  That matchup with Louisville would be interesting....it would be nice to get the Keg back.

It would be a great match-up in a fun city with a short drive for both fan bases. With that said, I've never heard a scenario that put an AAC team in that SEC/ACC bowl but strange things often happen in bowl selection season.

I'm a little less optimistic about the Liberty Bowl at this point. If the SEC can fill their slot in Memphis, most of their schools could sell a whole lot of tickets there in the mid-south. And that's really what it's all about as TV revenues are fixed years in advance of when teams are selected.
 
11-26-2019 10:40 AM
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BearcatJerry Offline
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
Honestly...and this is just my opinion...I would much prefer the Boca Bowl rather than the Birmingham Bowl. Better destination (coastal Florida as opposed to inland Alabama), better stadium (still new and right off the beach vs. decrepit Legion Field in one of the worst neighborhoods in Birmingham), and really an equal opponent (FAU as opposed to UAB). Again, just my $.02.
 
11-26-2019 11:22 AM
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Bruce Monnin Online
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
Cotton Bowl or bust!
 
11-26-2019 12:37 PM
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dubcat14 Offline
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
(11-26-2019 10:20 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  
(11-26-2019 09:50 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Edit Mizzou is not eligible for post season play. SEC could also get an at large to Cotton Bowl.
So 2-3 bowls SEC won't fill, Independence, Birmingham, and possibly Texas Bowl.

I believe there hasn't been a ruling made on Missouri yet and no one seems to know if they're eligible or not. Most platforms are assuming the NCAA won't rule in time and they're assigning them to a bowl in their projections. ESPN and The Athletic both has them in the Belk..

Update:
https://www.si.com/college/2019/11/26/mi...ppeal-ncaa

NCAA just ruled and is upholding its bowl ban on Missouri after the school appealed. Should be some adjustments made to the projections and one more bowl game the SEC won't be able to fill.

Good chance the SEC has 8 bowl eligible teams (UGA, LSU, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, UK, TAMU, Auburn) for 9 bowl spots and 3 will be in the NY6/Playoff. Leaves 5 teams for 9 bowls and 4 needing to be filled.
 
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2019 02:22 PM by dubcat14.)
11-26-2019 02:18 PM
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
I feel like if UC wins at Memphis on Friday we are looking at no worse than a decent power 5 opponent.
 
11-26-2019 02:21 PM
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doss2 Offline
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
Cotton, Birmingham, Military or other non AAC Bowls. The other AAC bowls are crap.
 
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2019 03:22 PM by doss2.)
11-26-2019 03:21 PM
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
(11-26-2019 02:18 PM)dubcat14 Wrote:  
(11-26-2019 10:20 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  
(11-26-2019 09:50 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Edit Mizzou is not eligible for post season play. SEC could also get an at large to Cotton Bowl.
So 2-3 bowls SEC won't fill, Independence, Birmingham, and possibly Texas Bowl.

I believe there hasn't been a ruling made on Missouri yet and no one seems to know if they're eligible or not. Most platforms are assuming the NCAA won't rule in time and they're assigning them to a bowl in their projections. ESPN and The Athletic both has them in the Belk..

Update:
https://www.si.com/college/2019/11/26/mi...ppeal-ncaa

NCAA just ruled and is upholding its bowl ban on Missouri after the school appealed. Should be some adjustments made to the projections and one more bowl game the SEC won't be able to fill.

Good chance the SEC has 8 bowl eligible teams (UGA, LSU, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, UK, TAMU, Auburn) for 9 bowl spots and 3 will be in the NY6/Playoff. Leaves 5 teams for 9 bowls and 4 needing to be filled.

SEC
Pecking Order
1) Playoff
2) Sugar
3) Orange
4) Citrus
5) Outback
6) Tax Slayer Gator
7) Music City
8) Belk
9) Texas (vs Big 12)
10) Liberty (vs Big 12)
11) Birmingham
12) Independence

SEC will have 9 Bowl Teams with a Miss St win. If the committee decides to
give 2 loss Florida the Cotton then they can't fill 4 slots. High probability we end up in Memphis again if we lose CCG, as long as that city isn't tired of us. There is going to be some horse trading going for sure. Likely SEC will not fill 9-12.

Edit if I am ESPN I try to get SMU as a replacement in the Texas Bowl Vs. Texas.
 
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2019 04:06 PM by SuperFlyBCat.)
11-26-2019 03:58 PM
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Def Berkkat Offline
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
10 wins (at least) and the Gasparilla Gorilla bowl against FAU.

Quite the reward for all that hard work.
 
11-26-2019 04:24 PM
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
(11-26-2019 04:24 PM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  10 wins (at least) and the Gasparilla Gorilla bowl against FAU.

Quite the reward for all that hard work.

ESPN runs the bowls. Tulane/Temple/UCF will play in those Florida bowls. AAC is the alternate for the Liberty.
 
11-26-2019 04:47 PM
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
Cincinnati, Memphis, Navy, and UCF probably get better opportunities based on fan base size.
 
11-26-2019 05:18 PM
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
(11-26-2019 05:18 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Cincinnati, Memphis, Navy, and UCF probably get better opportunities based on fan base size.

Unfortunately, the UC fan base must have been at Wal Mart last Saturday night. Attendance for the Temple game, a worthy opponent and with us potentially clinching the AAC East Division Championship, was awful.
 
11-26-2019 05:32 PM
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Bruce Monnin Online
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RE: Week 13 Bowl Projections
(11-26-2019 05:32 PM)vabearcat Wrote:  
(11-26-2019 05:18 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Cincinnati, Memphis, Navy, and UCF probably get better opportunities based on fan base size.

Unfortunately, the UC fan base must have been at Wal Mart last Saturday night. Attendance for the Temple game, a worthy opponent and with us potentially clinching the AAC East Division Championship, was awful.

But I am sure ticket sales were good. Just no one wants to watch a game in crap weather, including me. That's what television is for.
 
11-26-2019 05:35 PM
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