(11-26-2019 10:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  right now the AAC has a 64% chance that there is no thought on the G5 spot....
Memphis with a 44% chance of winning out. Cincy with a 20% chance of winning out.

At least a 64% chance, as there is some chance

1. Boise loses
2. If Memphis and Cincy split, the title game winner goes anyway due to strength of conference.

(11-28-2019 10:21 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 10:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  right now the AAC has a 64% chance that there is no thought on the G5 spot....
Memphis with a 44% chance of winning out. Cincy with a 20% chance of winning out.

At least a 64% chance, as there is some chance

1. Boise loses
2. If Memphis and Cincy split, the title game winner goes anyway due to strength of conference.

If Boise goes, in any case, the AAC is being penalized for being balanced.

(11-28-2019 10:45 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 10:21 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 10:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  right now the AAC has a 64% chance that there is no thought on the G5 spot....
Memphis with a 44% chance of winning out. Cincy with a 20% chance of winning out.

At least a 64% chance, as there is some chance

1. Boise loses
2. If Memphis and Cincy split, the title game winner goes anyway due to strength of conference.

If Boise goes, in any case, the AAC is being penalized for being balanced.

Unfortunately, Aresco and others talk about the NY6 slot as if it is about conference, as if the best G5 cinference should gave the NY6 team. But Its not, its about a single team.

The CFP has a separate procedure for determining the top G5 conference, and the AAC will almost surely win that even if Boise gets the NY6 slot.

(11-28-2019 10:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 10:45 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 10:21 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 10:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  right now the AAC has a 64% chance that there is no thought on the G5 spot....
Memphis with a 44% chance of winning out. Cincy with a 20% chance of winning out.

At least a 64% chance, as there is some chance

1. Boise loses
2. If Memphis and Cincy split, the title game winner goes anyway due to strength of conference.

If Boise goes, in any case, the AAC is being penalized for being balanced.

Unfortunately, Aresco and others talk about the NY6 slot as if it is about conference, as if the best G5 cinference should gave the NY6 team. But Its not, its about a single team.

The CFP has a separate procedure for determining the top G5 conference, and the AAC will almost surely win that even if Boise gets the NY6 slot.

You know Boise ain't going.

(11-28-2019 11:03 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 10:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 10:45 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 10:21 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 10:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  right now the AAC has a 64% chance that there is no thought on the G5 spot....
Memphis with a 44% chance of winning out. Cincy with a 20% chance of winning out.

At least a 64% chance, as there is some chance

1. Boise loses
2. If Memphis and Cincy split, the title game winner goes anyway due to strength of conference.

If Boise goes, in any case, the AAC is being penalized for being balanced.

Unfortunately, Aresco and others talk about the NY6 slot as if it is about conference, as if the best G5 cinference should gave the NY6 team. But Its not, its about a single team.

The CFP has a separate procedure for determining the top G5 conference, and the AAC will almost surely win that even if Boise gets the NY6 slot.

You know Boise ain't going.

Yes, but not the point.

(11-28-2019 11:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 11:03 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 10:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 10:45 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 10:21 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  At least a 64% chance, as there is some chance

1. Boise loses
2. If Memphis and Cincy split, the title game winner goes anyway due to strength of conference.

If Boise goes, in any case, the AAC is being penalized for being balanced.

Unfortunately, Aresco and others talk about the NY6 slot as if it is about conference, as if the best G5 cinference should gave the NY6 team. But Its not, its about a single team.

The CFP has a separate procedure for determining the top G5 conference, and the AAC will almost surely win that even if Boise gets the NY6 slot.

You know Boise ain't going.

Yes, but not the point.

Oh, so it is rigged?

(11-28-2019 11:12 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 11:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 11:03 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 10:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2019 10:45 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  If Boise goes, in any case, the AAC is being penalized for being balanced.

Unfortunately, Aresco and others talk about the NY6 slot as if it is about conference, as if the best G5 cinference should gave the NY6 team. But Its not, its about a single team.

The CFP has a separate procedure for determining the top G5 conference, and the AAC will almost surely win that even if Boise gets the NY6 slot.

You know Boise ain't going.

Yes, but not the point.

Oh, so it is rigged?

Boise has a slight chance to go. Maybe 10%?

Bumped and edited

A 2 loss Cincinnati AAC champ will get bumped for a 1 loss Boise MWC champ.
A 2 loss Cincinnati AAC Champ May not even get in over a 1 loss App St SB champ.
Boise brings more fans to bowls than Cincinnati.
App probably doesn’t bring as many fans as Cincinnati to Cotton..Or maybe they do this year?

I think a big thing to watch on Tuesday night is does UCF get in the top 25, and where is Cincy in relation to App St.

If Cincy is ahead of App St and UCF gets in the top 25- I'd have it as
1 Memphis
2 Boise
3 Cincy
with App St at that point pretty much DOA.

I think yesterday's game was good for the AAC. It was a close competitive game.

We all know that if Memphis wins the CCG, they will go to the Cotton Bowl. But beyond that, the closeness of the game yesterday likely means that:

1) Cincy will remain ranked, which is good.

2) If Cincy beats Memphis, they will get the bid over App State.

3) If Cincy beats Memphis and Boise struggles in the MW CCG, Cincy might get the bid over even a one-loss Boise. Probably not but it could happen.

So basically, the good showing Cincy put up yesterday means they are by no means out of the NY6 race themselves, which enhances AAC chances of getting the bid.

(11-30-2019 10:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think yesterday's game was good for the AAC. It was a close competitive game.

We all know that if Memphis wins the CCG, they will go to the Cotton Bowl. But beyond that, the closeness of the game yesterday likely means that:

1) Cincy will remain ranked, which is good.

2) If Cincy beats Memphis, they will get the bid over App State.

3) If Cincy beats Memphis and Boise struggles in the MW CCG, Cincy might get the bid over even a one-loss Boise. Probably not but it could happen.

So basically, the good showing Cincy put up yesterday means they are by no means out of the NY6 race themselves, which enhances AAC chances of getting the bid.

A spot-on assessment from QV. Agree fully.

Yes, quo. Yesterdays outcome was the best case scenario for the AAC

Boise St probably has the brand recognition more so than UC. If UC wins and splits with Memphis in a tight match, I would go with BSU. Not much different resume than UC, whose 42-0 showing against OSU, albeit early in the year, is not indicative of a worthy two loss champ getting in. Plus, UC does not have wins over SMU and Navy this year.

You can take UGa or Fla at two losses, Utah two loss, or a third place B1G team vs Boise and get a nice turnout in Jerry World.

(11-30-2019 10:33 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Yes, quo. Yesterdays outcome was the best case scenario for the AAC

I think this will be reflected in the CFP rankings this week. I expect Cincy to remain ahead of App State. That will finally dispel the illusions some App State fans have that a Cincy win in the CCG would put App State in over Cincy if Boise also loses.

It will tell them App has no chance to get the NY6 bid.

(11-30-2019 11:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-30-2019 10:33 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Yes, quo. Yesterdays outcome was the best case scenario for the AAC

I think this will be reflected in the CFP rankings this week. I expect Cincy to remain ahead of App State. That will finally dispel the illusions some App State fans have that a Cincy win in the CCG would put App State in over Cincy. It will tell them App has no chance to get the NY6 bid.

yep. And watch UCF sneak into the ratings to help that case some.

(11-30-2019 10:51 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Boise St probably has the brand recognition more so than UC. If UC wins and splits with Memphis in a tight match, I would go with BSU. Not much different resume than UC, whose 42-0 showing against OSU, albeit early in the year, is not indicative of a worthy two loss champ getting in. Plus, UC does not have wins over SMU and Navy this year.

You can take UGa or Fla at two losses, Utah two loss, or a third place B1G team vs Boise and get a nice turnout in Jerry World.

Resumes:
Rankings of opponent for each team's wins. (CFP where in, otherwise Massey Composite from last week's results, with 117 rankings compiled)
Team A: #30,56,67,79,95,96,100,110,117,124,FCS
Team B: #29,49,57,58,59,63,108,111,120,122,FCS
Team C: #18,26,48,63,69,72,83,86,91,112,125

I think Team C's wins are clearly better at the top. A wash or Team B slight advantage in the middle, but Team A and B bottom are putrid. I didn't double up #30 for Team A (App over Louisiana in CCG) or #57 for Team B (Boise over Hawaii in CCG).

Losses:
A to #75
B to #45
C to #1 and #18, with #18 being avenged in the CCG.

Team B and C have a common opponent.
B eked by Marshall on their blue home turf 14-7; C blew out Marshall in Huntington 52-14

I don't see how anyone can think Team B (Boise) has a similar resume, but okay.
Team A is App State. Distant third here.

(11-30-2019 10:31 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(11-30-2019 10:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think yesterday's game was good for the AAC. It was a close competitive game.

We all know that if Memphis wins the CCG, they will go to the Cotton Bowl. But beyond that, the closeness of the game yesterday likely means that:

1) Cincy will remain ranked, which is good.

2) If Cincy beats Memphis, they will get the bid over App State.

3) If Cincy beats Memphis and Boise struggles in the MW CCG, Cincy might get the bid over even a one-loss Boise. Probably not but it could happen.

So basically, the good showing Cincy put up yesterday means they are by no means out of the NY6 race themselves, which enhances AAC chances of getting the bid.

A spot-on assessment from QV. Agree fully.

The only team eliminated the other day was Navy.
Cincy-App St. isn't clear. Cincy-Boise isn't certain that its Boise.
And App St. and Boise could still lose.
Memphis wins next week and they are in.

It is Memphis' to lose. If Cincinnati, Boise St, and Appalachian St win, the committee will almost assuredly go with Boise St. If Cincinnati and Appalachian St win and Boise St loses then I think they'll go with Cincinnati. I don't see a path for Appalachian St unless they win so decisively and both Memphis and Boise St lose that the Mountaineers jump the Bearcats.

(11-30-2019 12:39 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(11-30-2019 10:51 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Boise St probably has the brand recognition more so than UC. If UC wins and splits with Memphis in a tight match, I would go with BSU. Not much different resume than UC, whose 42-0 showing against OSU, albeit early in the year, is not indicative of a worthy two loss champ getting in. Plus, UC does not have wins over SMU and Navy this year.

You can take UGa or Fla at two losses, Utah two loss, or a third place B1G team vs Boise and get a nice turnout in Jerry World.

Resumes:
Rankings of opponent for each team's wins. (CFP where in, otherwise Massey Composite from last week's results, with 117 rankings compiled)
Team A: #30,56,67,79,95,96,100,110,117,124,FCS
Team B: #29,49,57,58,59,63,108,111,120,122,FCS
Team C: #18,26,48,63,69,72,83,86,91,112,125

I think Team C's wins are clearly better at the top. A wash or Team B slight advantage in the middle, but Team A and B bottom are putrid. I didn't double up #30 for Team A (App over Louisiana in CCG) or #57 for Team B (Boise over Hawaii in CCG).

Losses:
A to #75
B to #45
C to #1 and #18, with #18 being avenged in the CCG.

Team B and C have a common opponent.
B eked by Marshall on their blue home turf 14-7; C blew out Marshall in Huntington 52-14

I don't see how anyone can think Team B (Boise) has a similar resume, but okay.
Team A is App State. Distant third here.

Fair but let’s see if UC can land a double digiter over Memphis next week and earn it on the field. Triple overtime or lucky win, not enough style points there.

But UC will be in over App St I agree with that.