(11-22-2019 06:19 AM)XLance Wrote:  The SEC has a great product that CBS has been willing to "showcase". The numbers for the broadcasts have been good, and the CBS production quality is unparalleled in television broadcasts.
Even though the SEC may have several bidders, CBS is the only OTA network that could give the SEC such special treatment.
It will be an interesting negotiation, one that I don't expect to see completed for quite some time unless the SEC is willing to accept a "lowball" number.

NBC right now is the only one who can replicate what CBS offers which is coast-to-coast OTA coverage all season. NBC can handle it with appropriate kick times for Notre Dame. Fox has other obligations and cannot offer that sort of consistent national appearance and ABC has the same issue.

Not claiming they all wouldn't happily bid and bid big because there is real value in CBS going dark on Saturdays as far as college football is concerned.

(11-25-2019 05:45 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(11-24-2019 10:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-24-2019 10:10 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So let’s say that CBS and the SEC can’t come to terms on a price and one party walks away from the table.

Who ends up getting the rights?

Any number of possibilities. FOX might well want those rights, ABC does want those rights, NBC would likely be a player since they are looking to add content, and there may be others we haven't heard about yet. But there won't be a problem selling them. Our broker favors selling them to ABC, but FOX is very well monetized.

Your "broker" favors giving up a unique time slot on CBS to take the Noon or 3:30 time slot on ABC's college football schedule?
FOX is pulling back from college football. They refused to even submit a lowball bid to the Big 12 for their championship game/T3 rights which is why most of the Big 12 T3 is headed to ESPN+ for a pittance.
NBC still has their Notre Dame contract that takes up 6/7 Saturdays a year. Would the SEC be satisfied to be broadcast only every other weekend at a reduced rate?
The SEC doesn't seem to have a lot of flexibility in choosing an OTA broadcast partner. Good luck with CBS being generous or fair.

One of these days, I'd like to visit the world you live in. I think it would be interesting.

Anyway, FOX didn't pull back from college football. They just dropped a huge amount on the Big Ten and are now waging a battle for supremacy in select time slots. They still spend plenty of energy promoting the PAC 12.

What they did was pull back from the Big 12 because their markets are fairly weak as a collective. That and the Big 12's days are likely numbered so there's really no reason to invest long term in a product that can't survive. They gave up the Tier 3 rights because they have no way to utilize them. You're forgetting that the regional sports networks are gone...that was the only platform they had to take advantage of anything Tier 3 from the Big 12.

FOX has streamlined their operation big time. Who knows if that ends up being a good move, but it's clear that FOX is focusing on live sports.

NBC will be in the running as well assuming they are interested. They wouldn't allow a contract with Notre Dame to stop them from bidding on the SEC. The question will be whether or not the two parties would agree on a consistent time slot.

(11-25-2019 11:26 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 06:19 AM)XLance Wrote:  The SEC has a great product that CBS has been willing to "showcase". The numbers for the broadcasts have been good, and the CBS production quality is unparalleled in television broadcasts.
Even though the SEC may have several bidders, CBS is the only OTA network that could give the SEC such special treatment.
It will be an interesting negotiation, one that I don't expect to see completed for quite some time unless the SEC is willing to accept a "lowball" number.

NBC right now is the only one who can replicate what CBS offers which is coast-to-coast OTA coverage all season. NBC can handle it with appropriate kick times for Notre Dame. Fox has other obligations and cannot offer that sort of consistent national appearance and ABC has the same issue.

Not claiming they all wouldn't happily bid and bid big because there is real value in CBS going dark on Saturdays as far as college football is concerned.

I wouldn't agree that FOX can't offer that time slot. Right now, FOX is not going to make a commitment to that time slot with their current packages because they would be competing directly with CBS and the SEC for those viewers. Not the best plan.

If CBS is out of the way, however, and FOX could piggyback their game of the week at Noon with an SEC game of the week at 330 then that's probably a ratings bonanza. It would be worth it for both parties to explore it at the very least.

That and if the SEC expands then that could mean more content that could be shifted to FS1, for example. Lots of potential.

(11-25-2019 11:55 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 11:26 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 06:19 AM)XLance Wrote:  The SEC has a great product that CBS has been willing to "showcase". The numbers for the broadcasts have been good, and the CBS production quality is unparalleled in television broadcasts.
Even though the SEC may have several bidders, CBS is the only OTA network that could give the SEC such special treatment.
It will be an interesting negotiation, one that I don't expect to see completed for quite some time unless the SEC is willing to accept a "lowball" number.

NBC right now is the only one who can replicate what CBS offers which is coast-to-coast OTA coverage all season. NBC can handle it with appropriate kick times for Notre Dame. Fox has other obligations and cannot offer that sort of consistent national appearance and ABC has the same issue.

Not claiming they all wouldn't happily bid and bid big because there is real value in CBS going dark on Saturdays as far as college football is concerned.

I wouldn't agree that FOX can't offer that time slot. Right now, FOX is not going to make a commitment to that time slot with their current packages because they would be competing directly with CBS and the SEC for those viewers. Not the best plan.

If CBS is out of the way, however, and FOX could piggyback their game of the week at Noon with an SEC game of the week at 330 then that's probably a ratings bonanza. It would be worth it for both parties to explore it at the very least.

That and if the SEC expands then that could mean more content that could be shifted to FS1, for example. Lots of potential.

Correct! I like the way you almost stated the obvious. The 11:00 AM time slot followed by a 2:30 CST SEC game of the week would be a massive coup for FOX. They would have the one / two knock out punch for ratings with the Big 10 and SEC back to back. And the evening slot which can feature anyone from the Big 10/PAC/or Big 12 gives them what ESPN once wanted to have, a reason to stay on 1 channel all day long. And that is why I fully expect FOX to make a major run at the SEC. And it's why I fully expect Disney to use ABC to make a huge counter. And that scenario puts a gun to the head of CBS Sports. To keep the branding, keep the exposure, and to stay in the game they have to come all out for the SEC and that may mean yielding not only on revenue but also on who calls the games as their announcers are anything but popular in the SEC and that has been a bone of contention since before Verne retired,

If I had to lay odds on anything right now it's that it may be another huge FOX surprise. They've wanted the Southeastern market in a big way and Disney/ESPN has fought hard to keep them from it. And they probably have the largest war chest for sticking it to the Mouse to get into the Southeast in a compelling way. At this point Sankey might just make a very high % of SEC fans happy by passing on CBS. And if exposure is what the SEC is after they will have the T3 and T2 exposure from Disney who won't be in a mood to piss us off. They very desperately need one of the two top college conference brands and if FOX grabs the SEC's T1 that leaves ESPN in an inferior position and they know it.

Like I said these rights are likely to end up north of 300 million.

Can you imagine what would happen if FOX landed the contract for the SEC's T1 and then helped the SEC & Big 10 to land either Texas or Oklahoma? They effectively gut ESPN's hold on top brands for college football. In that position they set themselves up as the new power broker and leave ESPN clearly in the dust.

Fox also needs tonnage for their stations in the south. Most of their stations, especially the UHFs, are still #4 in their markets. People only watch them for sports and a few entertainment programs.

For example, Fox just sold their Charlotte affiliate to Nexstar because it was doing so poorly. Their news was not outdrawing the CW, and they were the #5 station in their own market. Fox in Charleston is the #4 station. A lot of people only watch it for NFL and for the baseball World Series. And the big B1G games they have.

Getting SEC football would change that considerably.

NBC seems like an unlikely contender for placing a serious bid—they’ve always been cheap when it comes to college sports content. They’d have to put any SEC content they buy at the 12 EST slot or in prime time.

ABC/ESPN already owns a ton on content but for the right package I think they’d open up the war chest. They could probably find a way to give them exclusivity on the 3:30 EST window that the SEC likes so much.

FOX is the wildcard. They’ve paid to get the top pick from the Big Ten every other week. Buying up the pick of the SEC litter for 3:30 would be a major haul—they’d own 3/4ths of the top picks from CFB’s two most popular conferences. This would send ESPN execs into nervous fits. If they have the money and want to spend it this way it’s a coup for them.

Then you have CBS. If they lose this deal what are their options? Give up college football? Try and sublet some content from their rivals?

(11-25-2019 03:20 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  NBC seems like an unlikely contender for placing a serious bid—they’ve always been cheap when it comes to college sports content. They’d have to put any SEC content they buy at the 12 EST slot or in prime time.

ABC/ESPN already owns a ton on content but for the right package I think they’d open up the war chest. They could probably find a way to give them exclusivity on the 3:30 EST window that the SEC likes so much.

FOX is the wildcard. They’ve paid to get the top pick from the Big Ten every other week. Buying up the pick of the SEC litter for 3:30 would be a major haul—they’d own 3/4ths of the top picks from CFB’s two most popular conferences. This would send ESPN execs into nervous fits. If they have the money and want to spend it this way it’s a coup for them.

Then you have CBS. If they lose this deal what are their options? Give up college football? Try and sublet some content from their rivals?

To be honest, I don't expect NBC to put up a competitive bid either.

With that said, Mike Tirico is basically superior to any other commentator in sports broadcasting. It would be so refreshing to listen to someone just call a game rather than spout nonsense and stupid jokes for 3 hours.

(11-25-2019 03:20 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  NBC seems like an unlikely contender for placing a serious bid—they’ve always been cheap when it comes to college sports content. They’d have to put any SEC content they buy at the 12 EST slot or in prime time.

ABC/ESPN already owns a ton on content but for the right package I think they’d open up the war chest. They could probably find a way to give them exclusivity on the 3:30 EST window that the SEC likes so much.

FOX is the wildcard. They’ve paid to get the top pick from the Big Ten every other week. Buying up the pick of the SEC litter for 3:30 would be a major haul—they’d own 3/4ths of the top picks from CFB’s two most popular conferences. This would send ESPN execs into nervous fits. If they have the money and want to spend it this way it’s a coup for them.

Then you have CBS. If they lose this deal what are their options? Give up college football? Try and sublet some content from their rivals?

If CBS loses, I don't see them giving up on college football. They almost did that with the NFL once (not really trying to keep the NFC), and it cost them, so they ran to scoop it back up again from NBC (grabbing the AFC). I expect CBS to go to the ACC, and I can see the ACC going with CBS.

CBS gets 15 SEC games per year. First pick of the weekly T1 games, one double header weekend and the championship game. ESPN owns the rest of the SEC's T1.
So what does the SEC's contract with ESPN permit the SEC to sell? Certainly not anymore than they have in the past.
So when CBS negotiates with the SEC, they will be permitted to bid on one game per week. They can broadcast the best SEC game of the week, but ESPN gets all of the rest of the SEC's T1 games after the CBS pick.
Currently CBS pays $3.7 million per game. That's a sweet deal for CBS, but great exposure for the SEC and believe it or not the biggest winner is ESPN because CBS is promoting the SEC brand (which ESPN owns, except for that one game per week).
BTW the amount CBS pays the SEC for one game per week is approximately the same dollar figure that NBC pays Notre Dame per game.

(11-25-2019 11:55 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 11:26 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 06:19 AM)XLance Wrote:  The SEC has a great product that CBS has been willing to "showcase". The numbers for the broadcasts have been good, and the CBS production quality is unparalleled in television broadcasts.
Even though the SEC may have several bidders, CBS is the only OTA network that could give the SEC such special treatment.
It will be an interesting negotiation, one that I don't expect to see completed for quite some time unless the SEC is willing to accept a "lowball" number.

NBC right now is the only one who can replicate what CBS offers which is coast-to-coast OTA coverage all season. NBC can handle it with appropriate kick times for Notre Dame. Fox has other obligations and cannot offer that sort of consistent national appearance and ABC has the same issue.

Not claiming they all wouldn't happily bid and bid big because there is real value in CBS going dark on Saturdays as far as college football is concerned.

I wouldn't agree that FOX can't offer that time slot. Right now, FOX is not going to make a commitment to that time slot with their current packages because they would be competing directly with CBS and the SEC for those viewers. Not the best plan.

If CBS is out of the way, however, and FOX could piggyback their game of the week at Noon with an SEC game of the week at 330 then that's probably a ratings bonanza. It would be worth it for both parties to explore it at the very least.

That and if the SEC expands then that could mean more content that could be shifted to FS1, for example. Lots of potential.

And if you are a Big 10 AD you are thinking there is NFW you want to renew with Fox making you the pre-game show for SEC, because the announcers are going to pimp the hell out of the SEC game coming up next.

(11-26-2019 04:41 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 03:20 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  NBC seems like an unlikely contender for placing a serious bid—they’ve always been cheap when it comes to college sports content. They’d have to put any SEC content they buy at the 12 EST slot or in prime time.

ABC/ESPN already owns a ton on content but for the right package I think they’d open up the war chest. They could probably find a way to give them exclusivity on the 3:30 EST window that the SEC likes so much.

FOX is the wildcard. They’ve paid to get the top pick from the Big Ten every other week. Buying up the pick of the SEC litter for 3:30 would be a major haul—they’d own 3/4ths of the top picks from CFB’s two most popular conferences. This would send ESPN execs into nervous fits. If they have the money and want to spend it this way it’s a coup for them.

Then you have CBS. If they lose this deal what are their options? Give up college football? Try and sublet some content from their rivals?

If CBS loses, I don't see them giving up on college football. They almost did that with the NFL once (not really trying to keep the NFC), and it cost them, so they ran to scoop it back up again from NBC (grabbing the AFC). I expect CBS to go to the ACC, and I can see the ACC going with CBS.

The ACC is locked with ESPN/ABC until the mid 30's.....

(11-26-2019 06:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  CBS gets 15 SEC games per year. First pick of the weekly T1 games, one double header weekend and the championship game. ESPN owns the rest of the SEC's T1.
So what does the SEC's contract with ESPN permit the SEC to sell? Certainly not anymore than they have in the past.
So when CBS negotiates with the SEC, they will be permitted to bid on one game per week. They can broadcast the best SEC game of the week, but ESPN gets all of the rest of the SEC's T1 games after the CBS pick.
Currently CBS pays $3.7 million per game. That's a sweet deal for CBS, but great exposure for the SEC and believe it or not the biggest winner is ESPN because CBS is promoting the SEC brand (which ESPN owns, except for that one game per week).
BTW the amount CBS pays the SEC for one game per week is approximately the same dollar figure that NBC pays Notre Dame per game.

lol..... The SEC package on CBS this year has 4 of the top 6 games, and will add to that 2 more top games the next 2 weeks...

They are averaging over 7 million per game this season and that number is going to jump up considerably....

So just stop saying that ESPN is a winner because of CBS's ratings.. That's just dumb.

(11-26-2019 06:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  CBS gets 15 SEC games per year. First pick of the weekly T1 games, one double header weekend and the championship game. ESPN owns the rest of the SEC's T1.
So what does the SEC's contract with ESPN permit the SEC to sell? Certainly not anymore than they have in the past.
So when CBS negotiates with the SEC, they will be permitted to bid on one game per week. They can broadcast the best SEC game of the week, but ESPN gets all of the rest of the SEC's T1 games after the CBS pick.
Currently CBS pays $3.7 million per game. That's a sweet deal for CBS, but great exposure for the SEC and believe it or not the biggest winner is ESPN because CBS is promoting the SEC brand (which ESPN owns, except for that one game per week).
BTW the amount CBS pays the SEC for one game per week is approximately the same dollar figure that NBC pays Notre Dame per game.

Except that what CBS pays per game has to be divided by 14 teams and 1 conference office. That and NBC doesn't own the right to every Notre Dame game...only the homes games.

ESPN does get first pick on occasion, yes, but CBS gets most of them as well as the SEC Championship Game...which is quite possibly the most valuable college football game outside of the NY6. That and if we expand any time soon then we will have a new slate of games to offer. Those games aren't under contract currently for the simple reason that they don't exist. If expansion can create more games and increase the size of any new contract then the SEC likely takes that option.

(11-26-2019 10:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 04:41 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 03:20 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  NBC seems like an unlikely contender for placing a serious bid—they’ve always been cheap when it comes to college sports content. They’d have to put any SEC content they buy at the 12 EST slot or in prime time.

ABC/ESPN already owns a ton on content but for the right package I think they’d open up the war chest. They could probably find a way to give them exclusivity on the 3:30 EST window that the SEC likes so much.

FOX is the wildcard. They’ve paid to get the top pick from the Big Ten every other week. Buying up the pick of the SEC litter for 3:30 would be a major haul—they’d own 3/4ths of the top picks from CFB’s two most popular conferences. This would send ESPN execs into nervous fits. If they have the money and want to spend it this way it’s a coup for them.

Then you have CBS. If they lose this deal what are their options? Give up college football? Try and sublet some content from their rivals?

If CBS loses, I don't see them giving up on college football. They almost did that with the NFL once (not really trying to keep the NFC), and it cost them, so they ran to scoop it back up again from NBC (grabbing the AFC). I expect CBS to go to the ACC, and I can see the ACC going with CBS.

The ACC is locked with ESPN/ABC until the mid 30's.....

Yeah, if CBS plans to go with the ACC they'll have to wait a good decade...

FOX has been backing away from their Big 12 investments. I wonder if they’d be willing to incentivize the Big Ten and/or SEC to strip the Big 12 of its best assets in exchange for a hefty contract?

(11-26-2019 10:38 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 11:55 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(11-25-2019 11:26 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 06:19 AM)XLance Wrote:  The SEC has a great product that CBS has been willing to "showcase". The numbers for the broadcasts have been good, and the CBS production quality is unparalleled in television broadcasts.
Even though the SEC may have several bidders, CBS is the only OTA network that could give the SEC such special treatment.
It will be an interesting negotiation, one that I don't expect to see completed for quite some time unless the SEC is willing to accept a "lowball" number.

NBC right now is the only one who can replicate what CBS offers which is coast-to-coast OTA coverage all season. NBC can handle it with appropriate kick times for Notre Dame. Fox has other obligations and cannot offer that sort of consistent national appearance and ABC has the same issue.

Not claiming they all wouldn't happily bid and bid big because there is real value in CBS going dark on Saturdays as far as college football is concerned.

I wouldn't agree that FOX can't offer that time slot. Right now, FOX is not going to make a commitment to that time slot with their current packages because they would be competing directly with CBS and the SEC for those viewers. Not the best plan.

If CBS is out of the way, however, and FOX could piggyback their game of the week at Noon with an SEC game of the week at 330 then that's probably a ratings bonanza. It would be worth it for both parties to explore it at the very least.

That and if the SEC expands then that could mean more content that could be shifted to FS1, for example. Lots of potential.

And if you are a Big 10 AD you are thinking there is NFW you want to renew with Fox making you the pre-game show for SEC, because the announcers are going to pimp the hell out of the SEC game coming up next.

Fox is never going to consistently win any CFB timeslot other than noon ET, unless they bag the SEC/CBS package. Fox has broadcast only two games all season outside the noon timeslot that had the most viewers for that timeslot on that day. (Iowa State-Oklahoma and Oregon-USC, both in prime time.)

So it wouldn't surprise me at all if Fox bid high for the SEC/CBS package. But I agree that the Big Ten would see Fox winning the SEC package as a betrayal, and would not renew with Fox after that.

Of course, if all of that happened, it would leave the door open for the Big Ten to sell a game of the week to CBS, including more prime time games than CBS now gets for the SEC.

(11-26-2019 10:06 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  FOX has been backing away from their Big 12 investments. I wonder if they’d be willing to incentivize the Big Ten and/or SEC to strip the Big 12 of its best assets in exchange for a hefty contract?

Or

They may be thinking of incentivizing the PAC by putting up $$$ to raid key programs from their next door neighbor, while putting the Big Ten and SEC in position for the 2030s. No idea about how the details would be worked out and how Disney would respond but the tea leaves are there. The SEC would benefit even without one of the key Big 12 programs if they can snag programs in the mid-Atlantic, for example.

If FOX plays this correctly then they would be in position to dominate the 12:00, 3:30 and 7:00 slots for years to come.

(11-27-2019 12:14 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 10:06 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  FOX has been backing away from their Big 12 investments. I wonder if they’d be willing to incentivize the Big Ten and/or SEC to strip the Big 12 of its best assets in exchange for a hefty contract?

Or

They may be thinking of incentivizing the PAC by putting up $$$ to raid key programs from their next door neighbor, while putting the Big Ten and SEC in position for the 2030s. No idea about how the details would be worked out and how Disney would respond but the tea leaves are there. The SEC would benefit even without one of the key Big 12 programs if they can snag programs in the mid-Atlantic, for example.

If FOX plays this correctly then they would be in position to dominate the 12:00, 3:30 and 7:00 slots for years to come.

The disposition of Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma not withstanding because any or all of them would be up in the air, your assessment is precisely the one to which I arrived. The good news here for the SEC is a FOX going all out will push Disney into a do or die response with ABC. FOX landing the SEC T1 will given them the most dynamic two games to open a Saturday that's been had on the tube in a long time and being in a position to help broker Oklahoma and Texas as effectively as ESPN might have been cuts the legs out from under ESPN.

The most likely outcome will be a whopper of an offer from ABC to the SEC and FOX countering with another offer to the Big 10, but perhaps this time for both halves of their T1, leaving ESPN only T2. Then ESPN and FOX battle it out for the placement of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas using the Big 10 and SEC as proxies. The result will be a massive gap in revenue between the SEC/Big 10 and the PAC/ACC which will set up what will likely be a restructuring into 2 leagues.

(11-27-2019 12:33 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-27-2019 12:14 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 10:06 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  FOX has been backing away from their Big 12 investments. I wonder if they’d be willing to incentivize the Big Ten and/or SEC to strip the Big 12 of its best assets in exchange for a hefty contract?

Or

They may be thinking of incentivizing the PAC by putting up $$$ to raid key programs from their next door neighbor, while putting the Big Ten and SEC in position for the 2030s. No idea about how the details would be worked out and how Disney would respond but the tea leaves are there. The SEC would benefit even without one of the key Big 12 programs if they can snag programs in the mid-Atlantic, for example.

If FOX plays this correctly then they would be in position to dominate the 12:00, 3:30 and 7:00 slots for years to come.

The disposition of Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma not withstanding because any or all of them would be up in the air, your assessment is precisely the one to which I arrived. The good news here for the SEC is a FOX going all out will push Disney into a do or die response with ABC. FOX landing the SEC T1 will given them the most dynamic two games to open a Saturday that's been had on the tube in a long time and being in a position to help broker Oklahoma and Texas as effectively as ESPN might have been cuts the legs out from under ESPN.

The most likely outcome will be a whopper of an offer from ABC to the SEC and FOX countering with another offer to the Big 10, but perhaps this time for both halves of their T1, leaving ESPN only T2. Then ESPN and FOX battle it out for the placement of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas using the Big 10 and SEC as proxies. The result will be a massive gap in revenue between the SEC/Big 10 and the PAC/ACC which will set up what will likely be a restructuring into 2 leagues.

I was thinking more about using Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas to shore up the PAC (will require tons of money but still less than paying for one of two leagues; Kansas would help with PAC basketball) so that they'll have tons more content for prime time every week, alternating between PAC, SEC and Big Ten, with the SEC in between the Big Ten at noon and B1G/PAC/SEC prime time. They could even pay for a scheduling agreement between the PAC and SEC/B1G in the early weeks, alternating between years. Imagine an Alabama-Oregon in the first week, followed by USC-Ohio State the next week, followed by Tennessee-Washington in the third week, all in prime time. Basically, taking off from the Las Vegas Bowl cooperation between the three conferences.

What something like that would do is help with exposure on both coasts. All that would be left is opening up VA/NC within a decade later, which would be the last effective population grab in college sports.

(11-27-2019 12:33 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-27-2019 12:14 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 10:06 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  FOX has been backing away from their Big 12 investments. I wonder if they’d be willing to incentivize the Big Ten and/or SEC to strip the Big 12 of its best assets in exchange for a hefty contract?

Or

They may be thinking of incentivizing the PAC by putting up $$$ to raid key programs from their next door neighbor, while putting the Big Ten and SEC in position for the 2030s. No idea about how the details would be worked out and how Disney would respond but the tea leaves are there. The SEC would benefit even without one of the key Big 12 programs if they can snag programs in the mid-Atlantic, for example.

If FOX plays this correctly then they would be in position to dominate the 12:00, 3:30 and 7:00 slots for years to come.

The disposition of Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma not withstanding because any or all of them would be up in the air, your assessment is precisely the one to which I arrived. The good news here for the SEC is a FOX going all out will push Disney into a do or die response with ABC. FOX landing the SEC T1 will given them the most dynamic two games to open a Saturday that's been had on the tube in a long time and being in a position to help broker Oklahoma and Texas as effectively as ESPN might have been cuts the legs out from under ESPN.

The most likely outcome will be a whopper of an offer from ABC to the SEC and FOX countering with another offer to the Big 10, but perhaps this time for both halves of their T1, leaving ESPN only T2. Then ESPN and FOX battle it out for the placement of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas using the Big 10 and SEC as proxies. The result will be a massive gap in revenue between the SEC/Big 10 and the PAC/ACC which will set up what will likely be a restructuring into 2 leagues.

.....those 2 leagues won't exclude any existing P5 school. Even the duplicated markets are necessary to return the local/regional flavor to college football.
The destination of Oklahoma and Kansas will be with the rest of the Rose Bowl loving mid-western/west regions while Texas and friends will stick with the other side.

How those schools integrate into their respective leagues is immaterial.
A league without divisions but playing 4 or 5 games core games (think SEC scheduling as it was when the SEC was a 10 team league) with the rest of the schedule spread out within the league. That will recapture rivalries while at the same time provide big-time intersectional matchups........perfect made for TV.

When it's all said and done, only one school will be required to change horses (the one that was taken to stop the process until all of the plans were fInalized).