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APR Bowl outlook
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stever20 Online
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Post: #1
APR Bowl outlook
Here's the current list of teams with APR's for those not eligible yet...
t3 Duke 992 5-7
t41 Nebraska 977 5-7
t43 Army 976 5-7
t54 Oregon St 971 5-7
t66 Syracuse 968 5-7
t68 La-Monroe 967 5-7
t73 TCU 966 5-7
t76 Coastal Carolina 965 5-7
t76 Colorado 965 5-7
t80 Northern Illinois 964 5-7
t86 Troy 961 5-7
t92 Ball St 959 5-7
t104 West Va 953 5-7
t120 San Jose St 944 5-7

Bowl eligible 79
7 loss teams 14
8+ or probation teams- 37 (to include Missouri)
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2019 10:56 AM by stever20.)
11-19-2019 02:14 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
You can take the Pac-12 teams off the list if you like, because the conference now has a rule requiring a team to have at least 6 wins to play in a bowl game.

https://usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/.../35690261/
11-19-2019 03:06 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-19-2019 03:06 PM)Wedge Wrote:  You can take the Pac-12 teams off the list if you like, because the conference now has a rule requiring a team to have at least 6 wins to play in a bowl game.

Good point, and given that two of the top five are PAC teams, that could come in to play.

Though I'm starting to think it won't. Up until last week, it looked to me that there were going to be several bowls looking for teams. But now, not so much. We may yet again have more straight-up eligible teams than we do bowl games.
11-19-2019 07:18 PM
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Post: #4
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-19-2019 02:14 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Here's the current list of teams with APR's for those not eligible yet...
t3 Duke 992 4-6
t8 Boston College 989 5-5
15 Stanford 986 4-6
t28 Ohio 981 4-6
t31 Arizona St 980 5-5
t33 Cal 979 5-5
t41 Nebraska 977 4-6
t41 Kent St 977 4-6
t43 Miss St 976 4-6
t43 Army 976 5-6
t50 Missouri 972 5-5
t54 Oregon St 971 5-5
t58 E Michigan 970 5-5
t58 USF 970 4-6
t58 NC State 970 4-6
t58 Tennessee 970 5-5
t63 Kentucky 969 5-5
t63 North Texas 969 4-6
t66 Syracuse 968 4-6
t66 Buffalo 968 5-5
t68 La-Monroe 967 4-6
t68 Colorado St 967 4-6
t73 TCU 966 5-5 b12
t76 Colorado 965 4-6
t76 Coastal Carolina 965 4-6
t80 North Carolina 964 4-6
t80 Northern Illinois 964 4-6
t86 Troy 961 5-5
91 Washington St 960 5-5
t92 Florida Intl 959 5-5
t92 Ball St 959 4-6
t95 UTSA 957 4-6
t97 Purdue 956 4-6
t100 Liberty 955 6-4(2 FCS)
t104 West Va 953 4-6
t107 Arizona 952 4-6
t111 Fresno St 951 4-6
t114 Mich St 948 4-6
t114 UCLA 948 4-6
119 Charlotte 945 5-5
t120 San Jose St 944 4-6
t120 Texas Tech 944 4-6

t22 M Tennessee 982 3-7
t38 Ole Miss 978 4-7
t68 South Carolina 967 4-7
t76 Maryland 965 3-7
t92 Kansas 959 3-7
113 Houston 950 3-7
t120 Bowling Green 944 3-7
123 Tulsa 943 3-7
t125 E Carolina 937 3-7
t125 Texas St 937 3-7

Bowl eligible 63
7 loss teams 10
totally eliminated 15

Got 15 spots left, with 32 teams left fighting for those spots to avoid 7 loss teams making bowls.

If you see any mistakes let me know.... This was fun last year I remember... and this year is tighter I think.

42 teams left (130-63-10-15=42)
11-19-2019 07:59 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #5
RE: APR Bowl outlook
updated with Tuesday night MACTION!!!!

E Michigan becomes bowl eligible
Northern Illinois picks up loss #7.
Bowling Green gets loss #8 and is out.
11-19-2019 11:15 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-19-2019 11:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  updated with Tuesday night MACTION!!!!

E Michigan becomes bowl eligible
Northern Illinois picks up loss #7.
Bowling Green gets loss #8 and is out.

IIRC, the MAC has 5 bowl tie-ins and now has 5 bowl-eligible teams. So if any other MAC teams become eligible, and it appears that two or even three could, the MAC will be scrambling and some might get left out. The MAC does have a conditional spot in the Detroit bowl if the B1G or ACC don't fill their spots.

IIRC, the MAC is vulnerable to this, e.g., last year Miami-Ohio was eligible but did not play a bowl game.
11-20-2019 08:53 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #7
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-20-2019 08:53 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-19-2019 11:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  updated with Tuesday night MACTION!!!!

E Michigan becomes bowl eligible
Northern Illinois picks up loss #7.
Bowling Green gets loss #8 and is out.

IIRC, the MAC has 5 bowl tie-ins and now has 5 bowl-eligible teams. So if any other MAC teams become eligible, and it appears that two or even three could, the MAC will be scrambling and some might get left out. The MAC does have a conditional spot in the Detroit bowl if the B1G or ACC don't fill their spots.

IIRC, the MAC is vulnerable to this, e.g., last year Miami-Ohio was eligible but did not play a bowl game.

WE have 26 teams right now with 6 losses.... So very possible we're going to need some 7 loss teams(meaning ALL MAC teams would get in that are bowl eligible).
11-20-2019 09:09 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-20-2019 09:09 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-20-2019 08:53 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-19-2019 11:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  updated with Tuesday night MACTION!!!!

E Michigan becomes bowl eligible
Northern Illinois picks up loss #7.
Bowling Green gets loss #8 and is out.

IIRC, the MAC has 5 bowl tie-ins and now has 5 bowl-eligible teams. So if any other MAC teams become eligible, and it appears that two or even three could, the MAC will be scrambling and some might get left out. The MAC does have a conditional spot in the Detroit bowl if the B1G or ACC don't fill their spots.

IIRC, the MAC is vulnerable to this, e.g., last year Miami-Ohio was eligible but did not play a bowl game.

WE have 26 teams right now with 6 losses.... So very possible we're going to need some 7 loss teams(meaning ALL MAC teams would get in that are bowl eligible).

Yes, it could tip that way. For a long time I've thought it would, that for the first time since 2016 we will have more bowl slots than we have formally-eligible teams, such that we would be dipping in to the 7-loss pool.

But now I'm not so sure. Seems like things have tightened up a bit, more teams are becoming eligible than it appeared a few weeks ago. So we will just have to see.
11-20-2019 09:12 AM
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panite Offline
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-20-2019 09:12 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-20-2019 09:09 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-20-2019 08:53 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-19-2019 11:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  updated with Tuesday night MACTION!!!!

E Michigan becomes bowl eligible
Northern Illinois picks up loss #7.
Bowling Green gets loss #8 and is out.

IIRC, the MAC has 5 bowl tie-ins and now has 5 bowl-eligible teams. So if any other MAC teams become eligible, and it appears that two or even three could, the MAC will be scrambling and some might get left out. The MAC does have a conditional spot in the Detroit bowl if the B1G or ACC don't fill their spots.

IIRC, the MAC is vulnerable to this, e.g., last year Miami-Ohio was eligible but did not play a bowl game.

WE have 26 teams right now with 6 losses.... So very possible we're going to need some 7 loss teams(meaning ALL MAC teams would get in that are bowl eligible).

Yes, it could tip that way. For a long time I've thought it would, that for the first time since 2016 we will have more bowl slots than we have formally-eligible teams, such that we would be dipping in to the 7-loss pool.

But now I'm not so sure. Seems like things have tightened up a bit, more teams are becoming eligible than it appeared a few weeks ago. So we will just have to see.

You mean the 7 loss CESSPOOL don't you. 07-coffee3
11-20-2019 11:07 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
Buffalo becomes bowl eligible....
11-20-2019 10:58 PM
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Post: #11
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-19-2019 07:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-19-2019 03:06 PM)Wedge Wrote:  You can take the Pac-12 teams off the list if you like, because the conference now has a rule requiring a team to have at least 6 wins to play in a bowl game.

Good point, and given that two of the top five are PAC teams, that could come in to play.

Though I'm starting to think it won't. Up until last week, it looked to me that there were going to be several bowls looking for teams. But now, not so much. We may yet again have more straight-up eligible teams than we do bowl games.
I'm thinking 1-3 surplus teams this year the way things are going.
11-21-2019 05:34 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-21-2019 05:34 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(11-19-2019 07:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-19-2019 03:06 PM)Wedge Wrote:  You can take the Pac-12 teams off the list if you like, because the conference now has a rule requiring a team to have at least 6 wins to play in a bowl game.

Good point, and given that two of the top five are PAC teams, that could come in to play.

Though I'm starting to think it won't. Up until last week, it looked to me that there were going to be several bowls looking for teams. But now, not so much. We may yet again have more straight-up eligible teams than we do bowl games.
I'm thinking 1-3 surplus teams this year the way things are going.

Yes, and if so, you have to figure MAC teams are prime candidates to get left out in the cold.

I read an article today in a Buffalo sports page talking about Buffalo's win last night, and it seems like the Buffalo coaches are not assuming they are going bowling. The coaches were quoted about the need to get a 7th win in their final game vs Bowling Green to 'convince' someone to give them a bowl bid.
11-21-2019 05:54 PM
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
Was gonna to a big analysis but it's too complicated.

I think Buffalo hits 7 wins and locking themselves in beating a 2W Bowling Green team.
A banged-up Toledo team loses to Central Michigan and gives them 6-6, not locking them in.

That's all I can guess for now.

But figure if UB wins, that'd be 4 teams w/ 7+. If my UB/UT predictions hold true, you figure 2 of the other 4 bubble teams hit 6-6. So I think no team would get left out in that scenario.
(This post was last modified: 11-21-2019 06:19 PM by Bronco'14.)
11-21-2019 06:17 PM
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-21-2019 06:17 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Was gonna to a big analysis but it's too complicated.

I think Buffalo hits 7 wins and locking themselves in beating a 2W Bowling Green team.
A banged-up Toledo team loses to Central Michigan and gives them 6-6, not locking them in.

That's all I can guess for now.

Does the MAC have that kind of rule, that if there are more teams than bids that overall record, not conference record, determines it? That would be strange IMO if they did.

As it stands, Buffalo is one of six teams that could finish with a 5-3 conference record or better. In that case, if the Pizza Bowl doesn't open up and the MAC has only its five dedicated bowl bids, what is the TB procedure?
11-21-2019 06:21 PM
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Bronco'14 Offline
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
I'm under the impression it was overall record. Example, last year WMU went at 7-5 (5-3). Miami stayed home 6-6 (6-2)

It's very unlikely 6 teams finish 5-3 or better.

Some will get to 6-2, some will fall to 4-4.

I don't think Buffalo has anything to fear if they hit 7.
(This post was last modified: 11-21-2019 06:37 PM by Bronco'14.)
11-21-2019 06:33 PM
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-21-2019 06:33 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  I'm under the impression it was overall record. Example, last year WMU went at 7-5 (5-3). Miami stayed home 6-6 (6-2)

That would seem to clinch it. Weird, though.
11-21-2019 06:48 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
NC State loses to get to 7 losses....
11-21-2019 11:20 PM
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-21-2019 06:21 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Does the MAC have that kind of rule, that if there are more teams than bids that overall record, not conference record, determines it? That would be strange IMO if they did.

All I have heard tell of is a rule that a division winner cannot be left home while a non-division winner goes. If true, that would explain why Miami was confidently stating that they were going to a bowl game when they clinched the Eastern division and 6 wins.
11-22-2019 01:10 AM
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
Colorado St loses to get to 7 losses....

Also keep in mind, 1 of the teams I have is possible is Missouri which is appealing.... If they lose the appeal, we're down to needing 13 and having 35 left. With 24 of the 35 having 6 losses right now....
11-23-2019 12:58 AM
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-23-2019 12:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Colorado St loses to get to 7 losses....

Also keep in mind, 1 of the teams I have is possible is Missouri which is appealing.... If they lose the appeal, we're down to needing 13 and having 35 left. With 24 of the 35 having 6 losses right now....

IIRC, that is the correct way to frame it as of now. That's because I believe that in the screwy ways of the NCAA, once a school files an appeal, they are presumptively eligible. The NCAA has to affirmatively deny their appeal for it not to be so.

So as long as radio silence is being maintained from NCAA HQ on the appeal, they are as eligible as any other school, meaning they just need six wins.
(This post was last modified: 11-23-2019 05:19 AM by quo vadis.)
11-23-2019 05:18 AM
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