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APR Bowl outlook
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stever20 Online
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Post: #21
RE: APR Bowl outlook
updated with all the noon games... no new guys eligible.... still 13 to go with 33(or 34 with Missouri) left to figure out.
11-23-2019 03:43 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #22
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Kentucky #66.
11-23-2019 06:43 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #23
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Charlotte #67. Congrats 49ers!!!!
11-23-2019 06:56 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #24
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Cal #68
11-23-2019 07:13 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #25
RE: APR Bowl outlook
UCLA and Syracuse pick up loss #7.

Syracuse .. 10 wins last year no bowl this year.
11-23-2019 07:23 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #26
RE: APR Bowl outlook
FIU ... #69
11-23-2019 10:53 PM
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arkstfan Away
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Post: #27
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-23-2019 10:53 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  FIU ... #69

They can thank me. First time I've rooted for them since they left the Sun Belt. 02-13-banana
11-23-2019 10:56 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #28
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Arizona State .. #70
11-23-2019 11:03 PM
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Post: #29
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Tennessee ..... #71
11-23-2019 11:04 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #30
RE: APR Bowl outlook
updated with the early evening madness... need 7 teams and have 17 teams left....

it's gonna be close!
11-23-2019 11:08 PM
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Post: #31
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Washington St #72....

got 3 teams playing trying to stay alive.... Arizona getting killed by Utah, Colorado up vs Washington pretty late, and Fresno up on Nevada pretty late.
11-24-2019 01:00 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #32
RE: APR Bowl outlook
so got 6 to go with only 14 left.....

Going to be really tight. I have 5 favored I think, and then the one that may decide it- UNC vs NC State.... And that's WITH Missouri included....
11-24-2019 02:09 AM
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Post: #33
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-24-2019 02:09 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so got 6 to go with only 14 left.....

Going to be really tight. I have 5 favored I think, and then the one that may decide it- UNC vs NC State.... And that's WITH Missouri included....

I have 15 left that can get eligible counting Mizzou unless I'm missing something which is probable.
AAC
None
ACC
Boston College must win at Pitt
North Carolina must win at North Carolina State
Big XII
TCU must win at Home vs West Virginia.
Big 10
Nebraska must win at home vs Iowa.
Michigan State must win at home vs Maryland
C-USA
None
MAC
Ohio must win at Akron
Kent State must win at Eastern Michigan
MWC
None
Pac-12
Colorado must win at Utah
Oregon State must win at Oregon
SEC
Mississippi State must win at home vs Ole Miss
Missouri must win at Little Rock vs Arkansas AND must get a favorable ruling from NCAA on bowl ban appeal.
Sun Belt
Troy must win at home vs Appalachian State
ULM must win at Louisiana
Independents.
Liberty must win at home vs New Mexico State
Army must win at Hawai’i AND must win in Philadelphia vs Navy

I think UNC, TCU, Michigan State, Ohio, Mississippi State, Missouri and Liberty get their wins and NCAA grants the Missouri petition and a MAC stays home.
11-24-2019 05:03 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #34
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-24-2019 05:03 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think UNC, TCU, Michigan State, Ohio, Mississippi State, Missouri and Liberty get their wins and NCAA grants the Missouri petition and a MAC stays home.

Isn't Liberty as vulnerable as a MAC floater? They lost their one tie-in, the Cure Bowl already right?
11-24-2019 07:40 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #35
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-24-2019 05:03 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(11-24-2019 02:09 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so got 6 to go with only 14 left.....

Going to be really tight. I have 5 favored I think, and then the one that may decide it- UNC vs NC State.... And that's WITH Missouri included....

I have 15 left that can get eligible counting Mizzou unless I'm missing something which is probable.
AAC
None
ACC
Boston College must win at Pitt
North Carolina must win at North Carolina State
Big XII
TCU must win at Home vs West Virginia.
Big 10
Nebraska must win at home vs Iowa.
Michigan State must win at home vs Maryland
C-USA
None
MAC
Ohio must win at Akron
Kent State must win at Eastern Michigan
MWC
None
Pac-12
Colorado must win at Utah
Oregon State must win at Oregon
SEC
Mississippi State must win at home vs Ole Miss
Missouri must win at Little Rock vs Arkansas AND must get a favorable ruling from NCAA on bowl ban appeal.
Sun Belt
Troy must win at home vs Appalachian State
ULM must win at Louisiana
Independents.
Liberty must win at home vs New Mexico State
Army must win at Hawai’i AND must win in Philadelphia vs Navy

I think UNC, TCU, Michigan State, Ohio, Mississippi State, Missouri and Liberty get their wins and NCAA grants the Missouri petition and a MAC stays home.
If we get 78 w/o Missouri, I think the NCAA declines it easy.
11-24-2019 12:28 PM
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Post: #36
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-24-2019 07:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-24-2019 05:03 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think UNC, TCU, Michigan State, Ohio, Mississippi State, Missouri and Liberty get their wins and NCAA grants the Missouri petition and a MAC stays home.

Isn't Liberty as vulnerable as a MAC floater? They lost their one tie-in, the Cure Bowl already right?

I've seen people say this multiple times, not sure why people think Cure is covered.

Sun Belt has five ties and five eligible but AAC by my count has 8 bowl ties and 7 eligible and likely loses one to the Access slot leaving the AAC two teams short of filling their bowls. BYU is apparently going to play Hawaii in Hawaii which solves one AAC tie but unless Cure is picking ahead of someone else in the AAC roster the Cure should be open.
11-24-2019 01:29 PM
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Post: #37
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-24-2019 01:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(11-24-2019 07:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-24-2019 05:03 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think UNC, TCU, Michigan State, Ohio, Mississippi State, Missouri and Liberty get their wins and NCAA grants the Missouri petition and a MAC stays home.

Isn't Liberty as vulnerable as a MAC floater? They lost their one tie-in, the Cure Bowl already right?

I've seen people say this multiple times, not sure why people think Cure is covered.

Sun Belt has five ties and five eligible but AAC by my count has 8 bowl ties and 7 eligible and likely loses one to the Access slot leaving the AAC two teams short of filling their bowls. BYU is apparently going to play Hawaii in Hawaii which solves one AAC tie but unless Cure is picking ahead of someone else in the AAC roster the Cure should be open.

That's a good point. If the AAC does get the NY6, which looks very likely, then the AAC will not fill all its slots even with the Hawaii Bowl off the table.

But, that doesn't mean the Cure will be open. The AAC doesn't have a pecking order, it fills its bowls based on geography and matchups.

On that basis, we know they will fill the Military Bowl as that will be vs the ACC. Normally, the Birmingham Bowl would be a given too, as that is vs the SEC. But, the SEC is almost surely not going to fill that bowl this year, making it less attractive.

So then it will come down to horse-trading and bargaining with the Cure, B-Ham, Gasparilla, Cherry and Frisco bowls as to which one the AAC doesn't fill.

But I bet they won't make that decision based on what works for Liberty, LOL.
11-24-2019 03:06 PM
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Post: #38
RE: APR Bowl outlook
I anticipate that the following will gain eligibility next weekend:

Miss St
Missouri*
UNC
Mich St
TCU
Ohio
Kent St
Liberty
11-24-2019 05:14 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #39
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Missouri is gone. Makes things much more interesting for sure.
11-26-2019 01:09 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #40
RE: APR Bowl outlook
so looking at the 14 teams left with their ESPN FPI chances to win(win out for Army)
Boston College 36.0% 5
Army 10.5% 7
Oregon St 5.5% 9
La-Monroe 6.0% 8
TCU 85.9% 3
Colorado 4.8% 10
UNC 72.6% 4
Troy 21.1% 6
Liberty 89.7% 2
Mich St 89.8% 1

3 teams over 80%
1 team 72.6%
2 teams 21-36%
4 teams < 11%

69.2% the top 3 favorites all win now...

If they don't, it's going to get really dicey. 2 others are in that 34-36% chance range, 2 others in the 21-29% range and then the other 4 are all less than 11%.

my hunch is we'll know by Friday night. 3 favorites play along with teams with the 8-10th best chances of winning play by then.... if all the dogs lose and 1 of the favorites, we're in trouble.
(This post was last modified: 11-29-2019 05:56 PM by stever20.)
11-26-2019 02:08 PM
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