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APR Bowl outlook
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #61
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-29-2019 08:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 08:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 07:42 PM)stever20 Wrote:  TCU loses and is eliminated...

Basically now- assuming Liberty and Michigan St win.... The game that will decide everything is UNC/NC State.

TCU losing is a big surprise to me.

We might just end up with a perfect 78/78 match

well looking at the win % chances.
Mich St 89.8% 1
Liberty 89.7% 2
UNC 72.6% 3
Boston College 36.0% 4
Army 10.5% 5
La-Monroe 6.0% 6
Oregon St 5.5% 7
Colorado 4.8% 8

we realistically have 4 teams with much of a chance....

What is ironic is for Boston College they go bowling with a win, and quite possibly if they lose, still go bowling.

So your saying that there will be 5-7 teams bowling this year?
11-30-2019 01:07 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #62
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 01:07 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 08:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 08:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 07:42 PM)stever20 Wrote:  TCU loses and is eliminated...

Basically now- assuming Liberty and Michigan St win.... The game that will decide everything is UNC/NC State.

TCU losing is a big surprise to me.

We might just end up with a perfect 78/78 match

well looking at the win % chances.
Mich St 89.8% 1
Liberty 89.7% 2
UNC 72.6% 3
Boston College 36.0% 4
Army 10.5% 5
La-Monroe 6.0% 6
Oregon St 5.5% 7
Colorado 4.8% 8

we realistically have 4 teams with much of a chance....

What is ironic is for Boston College they go bowling with a win, and quite possibly if they lose, still go bowling.

So your saying that there will be 5-7 teams bowling this year?

basically if NC State beats UNC, we'd have 1. It'd be either Boston College if they lose, or Duke(if they beat Miami).
11-30-2019 01:09 AM
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Post: #63
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 01:07 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 08:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 08:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 07:42 PM)stever20 Wrote:  TCU loses and is eliminated...

Basically now- assuming Liberty and Michigan St win.... The game that will decide everything is UNC/NC State.

TCU losing is a big surprise to me.

We might just end up with a perfect 78/78 match

well looking at the win % chances.
Mich St 89.8% 1
Liberty 89.7% 2
UNC 72.6% 3
Boston College 36.0% 4
Army 10.5% 5
La-Monroe 6.0% 6
Oregon St 5.5% 7
Colorado 4.8% 8

we realistically have 4 teams with much of a chance....

What is ironic is for Boston College they go bowling with a win, and quite possibly if they lose, still go bowling.

So your saying that there will be 5-7 teams bowling this year?

If three of these hit, there will not be any 5-7 teams bowling. Think I've got them in order of kickoff.

Liberty must win at home vs New Mexico State
Boston College must win at Pitt
Michigan State must win at home vs Maryland
Oregon State must win at Oregon
North Carolina must win at North Carolina State
Colorado must win at Utah
ULM must win at Louisiana
Army must win at Hawai’i AND must win in Philadelphia vs Navy

Now I think Liberty, Michigan State and North Carolina are the only ones favored so it could get pretty hinky on getting to 78 if those three lose.
11-30-2019 02:37 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #64
RE: APR Bowl outlook
what is going to be really interesting would be if.... NC State beats UNC. 2 other favorites(Liberty and MSU win). Army wins....

We'd have a true situation where if Army wins, they go Bowling. If Army loses, next team up goes(either BC or Duke). Would be fascinating to see if they would give Army a 2 FCS win waiver to make it where they would get in no matter what.
11-30-2019 02:44 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #65
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 02:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  what is going to be really interesting would be if.... NC State beats UNC. 2 other favorites(Liberty and MSU win). Army wins....

We'd have a true situation where if Army wins, they go Bowling. If Army loses, next team up goes(either BC or Duke). Would be fascinating to see if they would give Army a 2 FCS win waiver to make it where they would get in no matter what.

I want to see that scenario just to see what hapoens.
11-30-2019 09:39 AM
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Post: #66
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 02:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  what is going to be really interesting would be if.... NC State beats UNC. 2 other favorites(Liberty and MSU win). Army wins....

We'd have a true situation where if Army wins, they go Bowling. If Army loses, next team up goes(either BC or Duke). Would be fascinating to see if they would give Army a 2 FCS win waiver to make it where they would get in no matter what.

In that case, the Armed Forces Bowl, played on January 4th, could take Army if they beat Navy (7-5 with 2 FCS wins), OR Duke if they beat Miami (5-7), OR BC (5-7). January 4th gives fans of all three of those teams plenty of time to arrange travel plans to Fort Worth.
11-30-2019 09:57 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #67
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Liberty wins ...... #76
11-30-2019 05:15 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #68
RE: APR Bowl outlook
BC Wins for #77.

If Michigan St can win we're at 78.
11-30-2019 06:40 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #69
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Michigan State wins ...... #78.

No APR list needed.
11-30-2019 06:41 PM
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Post: #70
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 06:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Michigan State wins ...... #78.

No APR list needed.

And may end up with more and some staying home.

Figure Liberty is safe unless AAC surprises me and shorts a different bowl than Cure or Cincy wins the rematch and the committee thinks Boise is better.
11-30-2019 06:59 PM
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Post: #71
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 06:59 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 06:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Michigan State wins ...... #78.

No APR list needed.

And may end up with more and some staying home.

Figure Liberty is safe unless AAC surprises me and shorts a different bowl than Cure or Cincy wins the rematch and the committee thinks Boise is better.

I have no idea what the AAC will do with their bowls, but i don't think the Cure is necessarily their worst. They may well decide to fill it
11-30-2019 07:12 PM
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Post: #72
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 07:12 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 06:59 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 06:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Michigan State wins ...... #78.

No APR list needed.

And may end up with more and some staying home.

Figure Liberty is safe unless AAC surprises me and shorts a different bowl than Cure or Cincy wins the rematch and the committee thinks Boise is better.

I have no idea what the AAC will do with their bowls, but i don't think the Cure is necessarily their worst. They may well decide to fill it

In the past dumping the Sun Belt match-up was a given. Now I could see dumping Boca or Servpro
11-30-2019 07:36 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #73
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-29-2019 08:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 08:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 07:42 PM)stever20 Wrote:  TCU loses and is eliminated...

Basically now- assuming Liberty and Michigan St win.... The game that will decide everything is UNC/NC State.

TCU losing is a big surprise to me.

We might just end up with a perfect 78/78 match

well looking at the win % chances.
Mich St 89.8% 1
Liberty 89.7% 2
UNC 72.6% 3
Boston College 36.0% 4
Army 10.5% 5
La-Monroe 6.0% 6
Oregon St 5.5% 7
Colorado 4.8% 8

we realistically have 4 teams with much of a chance....

What is ironic is for Boston College they go bowling with a win, and quite possibly if they lose, still go bowling.

Colorado is leading Utah and UNC is leading NC State. They win? We have 80 schools. Liberty will be staying home as one of them. One of the MAC schools would be the other one out. Liberty do not have a tie in bowl. MAC only have 4.
11-30-2019 08:18 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #74
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 08:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 08:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 08:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 07:42 PM)stever20 Wrote:  TCU loses and is eliminated...

Basically now- assuming Liberty and Michigan St win.... The game that will decide everything is UNC/NC State.

TCU losing is a big surprise to me.

We might just end up with a perfect 78/78 match

well looking at the win % chances.
Mich St 89.8% 1
Liberty 89.7% 2
UNC 72.6% 3
Boston College 36.0% 4
Army 10.5% 5
La-Monroe 6.0% 6
Oregon St 5.5% 7
Colorado 4.8% 8

we realistically have 4 teams with much of a chance....

What is ironic is for Boston College they go bowling with a win, and quite possibly if they lose, still go bowling.

Colorado is leading Utah and UNC is leading NC State. They win? We have 80 schools. Liberty will be staying home as one of them. One of the MAC schools would be the other one out. Liberty do not have a tie in bowl. MAC only have 4.

so says the guy who was talking **** when UConn was up early on Temple....

Utah and NC State guaranteed to come back now.
11-30-2019 08:19 PM
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Post: #75
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 08:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 08:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 08:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 07:42 PM)stever20 Wrote:  TCU loses and is eliminated...

Basically now- assuming Liberty and Michigan St win.... The game that will decide everything is UNC/NC State.

TCU losing is a big surprise to me.

We might just end up with a perfect 78/78 match

well looking at the win % chances.
Mich St 89.8% 1
Liberty 89.7% 2
UNC 72.6% 3
Boston College 36.0% 4
Army 10.5% 5
La-Monroe 6.0% 6
Oregon St 5.5% 7
Colorado 4.8% 8

we realistically have 4 teams with much of a chance....

What is ironic is for Boston College they go bowling with a win, and quite possibly if they lose, still go bowling.

Colorado is leading Utah and UNC is leading NC State. They win? We have 80 schools. Liberty will be staying home as one of them. One of the MAC schools would be the other one out. Liberty do not have a tie in bowl. MAC only have 4.

Liberty has a spot IF AAC shorts the Cure Bowl. Liberty is the backup to the game
11-30-2019 08:20 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #76
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 08:20 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Liberty has a spot IF AAC shorts the Cure Bowl. Liberty is the backup to the game

Liberty will have a spot for the reason that it is the backup to the Cure bowl ... its supporters will travel for their first-ever bowl game. There will be enough unfilled spots to let it happen ... independent of whether any eligible Go5 schools sit home.
11-30-2019 08:54 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #77
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 08:54 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 08:20 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Liberty has a spot IF AAC shorts the Cure Bowl. Liberty is the backup to the game

Liberty will have a spot for the reason that it is the backup to the Cure bowl ... its supporters will travel for their first-ever bowl game. There will be enough unfilled spots to let it happen ... independent of whether any eligible Go5 schools sit home.

Its not up to the Cure Bowl. Its up to the AAC.
11-30-2019 09:32 PM
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Post: #78
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 09:32 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 08:54 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 08:20 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Liberty has a spot IF AAC shorts the Cure Bowl. Liberty is the backup to the game

Liberty will have a spot for the reason that it is the backup to the Cure bowl ... its supporters will travel for their first-ever bowl game. There will be enough unfilled spots to let it happen ... independent of whether any eligible Go5 schools sit home.

Its not up to the Cure Bowl. Its up to the AAC.

Exactly but I think probability is AAC dumps Cure because it is on CBSSN instead of ESPN.
11-30-2019 10:41 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #79
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 10:41 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 09:32 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 08:54 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 08:20 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Liberty has a spot IF AAC shorts the Cure Bowl. Liberty is the backup to the game

Liberty will have a spot for the reason that it is the backup to the Cure bowl ... its supporters will travel for their first-ever bowl game. There will be enough unfilled spots to let it happen ... independent of whether any eligible Go5 schools sit home.

Its not up to the Cure Bowl. Its up to the AAC.

Exactly but I think probability is AAC dumps Cure because it is on CBSSN instead of ESPN.

I agree there is a decent chance the AAC dumps the Cure, but some seemed to think the Cure could dump the AAC in favor of Liberty.
11-30-2019 11:04 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #80
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-30-2019 09:32 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 08:54 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 08:20 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Liberty has a spot IF AAC shorts the Cure Bowl. Liberty is the backup to the game

Liberty will have a spot for the reason that it is the backup to the Cure bowl ... its supporters will travel for their first-ever bowl game. There will be enough unfilled spots to let it happen ... independent of whether any eligible Go5 schools sit home.

Its not up to the Cure Bowl. Its up to the AAC.
I didn't specify a spot at the Cure bowl. With open slots available, and only Go5 schools available to fill them, Liberty will fill one of those slots, because they would be expected to travel best among all of the schools then on offer.

So, for instance, if it comes down to it the Frisco might take them.

With BC and UNC making it, does that make 10 ACC schools plus Notre Dame bowl eligible for 10 bowls plus possibly Citrus? If the SEC can't fill their spots that might make an open slot in the ACC secondary in Birmingham ... which would expect to get a lot of business from filling that spot with Liberty.

With only 1+ school eligible (hoping that the Rainbow Warriors take care of business today), there are a lot of possible scenarios where it isn't Liberty staying home.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2019 01:18 AM by BruceMcF.)
12-01-2019 01:07 AM
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