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APR Bowl outlook
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stever20 Online
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Post: #41
RE: APR Bowl outlook
so looking at the 14 teams left with their ESPN FPI chances to win(win out for Army)
Boston College 36.0% 5
Army 10.5% 7
Oregon St 5.5% 9
La-Monroe 6.0% 8
TCU 85.9% 3
Colorado 4.8% 10
UNC 72.6% 4
Troy 21.1% 6
Liberty 89.7% 2
Mich St 89.8% 1

3 teams over 80%
1 team 72.6%
2 teams 21-36%
4 teams < 11%

69.2% the top 3 favorites all win now...

If they don't, it's going to get really dicey. 2 others are in that 34-36% chance range, 2 others in the 21-29% range and then the other 4 are all less than 11%.

my hunch is we'll know by Friday night. 3 favorites play along with teams with the 8-10th best chances of winning play by then.... if all the dogs lose and 1 of the favorites, we're in trouble.
(This post was last modified: 11-29-2019 05:56 PM by stever20.)
11-26-2019 02:08 PM
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arkstfan Away
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Post: #42
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-26-2019 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Missouri is gone. Makes things much more interesting for sure.

Just wait. Unless someone closes up shop we've got 84 slots to fill next year
11-26-2019 02:14 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #43
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-26-2019 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Missouri is gone. Makes things much more interesting for sure.

This assures that the SEC will leave at least one slot unfilled, as the SEC has 10 guaranteed bowl slots and even if Mississippi State wins, they will have only 9 eligible teams.

And that's a best-case scenario, meaning no SEC team makes the CFP and the only NY6 team they have is in the Sugar Bowl.

In reality, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which the SEC has fewer than 3 teams in the NY6, and unless FSU and Georgia Tech upset Florida and Georgia, four is more likely.

So on the other extreme, if four SEC teams make the NY6 and Mississippi State loses, the SEC will be short a full FIVE bowl slots.

That would encompass not only the Birmingham and Independence Bowls, but also three of the bowls in their Pool-of-Six, probably the Belk Bowl and the Liberty Bowl and maybe the Music City Bowl as well.

Some MAC and CUSA bottom feeders, and maybe an independent floaters, will play at much better bowls than they are used to playing in.
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2019 02:49 PM by quo vadis.)
11-26-2019 02:47 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #44
RE: APR Bowl outlook
If we come up one short - that is, only 77 teams meet the win threshold - then it would appear the ACC is in the driver's seat for the last bowl bid. If Duke beats Miami this week, they go to 5-7 and get the nod. If they lose, then BC has the next best APR and they are already at 5-7.
11-27-2019 09:16 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #45
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Mississippi State WINS the Egg Bowl to become bowl eligible.

Down 21-14, Ole Miss scores a TD with 4 seconds left, but the scorer simulates a dog peeing on the MS endzone and draws an unsportsmanlike penalty, and the kicker misses the long XP. 21-20 final.
11-28-2019 10:44 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #46
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Nebraska, wait till next year.

I can't see Iowa losing.

Start looking for another QB or improve the OL.
11-28-2019 11:09 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #47
RE: APR Bowl outlook
74 eligible teams so 4 spots left to fill.
11-28-2019 11:11 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #48
RE: APR Bowl outlook
As long as the team is not under .500, I can live with it.
11-28-2019 11:25 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #49
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-28-2019 11:25 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  As long as the team is not under .500, I can live with it.

Yes, 5-7 teams in a bowl is a farce. Means you were a loser even if you win the bowl.
11-28-2019 11:26 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #50
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Yep.
11-28-2019 11:43 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #51
RE: APR Bowl outlook
OT.

Hope that the USF-UCF is competitive tomorrow. Prime time, baby.

And no serious injuries on either side.
(This post was last modified: 11-28-2019 11:47 PM by sierrajip.)
11-28-2019 11:46 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #52
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-28-2019 11:46 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  OT.

Hope that the USF-UCF is competitive tomorrow. Prime time, baby.

And no serious injuries on either side.

Yes, may the best team win. 04-cheers
11-29-2019 12:08 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #53
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-28-2019 10:44 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Mississippi State WINS the Egg Bowl to become bowl eligible.

Down 21-14, Ole Miss scores a TD with 4 seconds left, but the scorer simulates a dog peeing on the MS endzone and draws an unsportsmanlike penalty, and the kicker misses the long XP. 21-20 final.

With that stunt in the end zone, that player showed his arse and went from hero to goat. I sure hope it was worth it. I feel sorry for the kicker, who will probably blame himself for missing, but without the penalty that kick would have been good.
11-29-2019 09:45 AM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #54
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-28-2019 10:44 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Mississippi State WINS the Egg Bowl to become bowl eligible.

Down 21-14, Ole Miss scores a TD with 4 seconds left, but the scorer simulates a dog peeing on the MS endzone and draws an unsportsmanlike penalty, and the kicker misses the long XP. 21-20 final.
Nothing against Ole Miss and I was totally neutral in that game. But the way it ended is one of the most hilarious things I’ve ever seen in any sporting event. Without the penalty, the game goes into OT, or possibly Ole Miss wins (or loses) in a two-point conversion attempt. But no, Elijah Moore just had to pretend he was peeing on an imaginary fire-hydrant.
11-29-2019 09:59 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #55
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-29-2019 09:59 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(11-28-2019 10:44 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Mississippi State WINS the Egg Bowl to become bowl eligible.

Down 21-14, Ole Miss scores a TD with 4 seconds left, but the scorer simulates a dog peeing on the MS endzone and draws an unsportsmanlike penalty, and the kicker misses the long XP. 21-20 final.
Nothing against Ole Miss and I was totally neutral in that game. But the way it ended is one of the most hilarious things I’ve ever seen in any sporting event. Without the penalty, the game goes into OT, or possibly Ole Miss wins (or loses) in a two-point conversion attempt. But no, Elijah Moore just had to pretend he was peeing on an imaginary fire-hydrant.

I agree. Let's face it - this game will now always be a part of "football lore". It will be mentioned 20 years from now. Whereas if the scorer had just handed the ball to the ref, it would have been forgotten a month from now as just another close OT game between rivals having mediocre years.

So really, Moore did college football a favor, he added to the legacy.
11-29-2019 10:58 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #56
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Kent State ... #75
(This post was last modified: 11-29-2019 03:33 PM by quo vadis.)
11-29-2019 03:29 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #57
RE: APR Bowl outlook
Nebraska is gone. 3 needed with 10 left to go.

TCU tied at halftime.
11-29-2019 05:54 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #58
RE: APR Bowl outlook
TCU loses and is eliminated...

Basically now- assuming Liberty and Michigan St win.... The game that will decide everything is UNC/NC State.
11-29-2019 07:42 PM
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RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-29-2019 07:42 PM)stever20 Wrote:  TCU loses and is eliminated...

Basically now- assuming Liberty and Michigan St win.... The game that will decide everything is UNC/NC State.

TCU losing is a big surprise to me.

We might just end up with a perfect 78/78 match
11-29-2019 08:14 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #60
RE: APR Bowl outlook
(11-29-2019 08:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-29-2019 07:42 PM)stever20 Wrote:  TCU loses and is eliminated...

Basically now- assuming Liberty and Michigan St win.... The game that will decide everything is UNC/NC State.

TCU losing is a big surprise to me.

We might just end up with a perfect 78/78 match

well looking at the win % chances.
Mich St 89.8% 1
Liberty 89.7% 2
UNC 72.6% 3
Boston College 36.0% 4
Army 10.5% 5
La-Monroe 6.0% 6
Oregon St 5.5% 7
Colorado 4.8% 8

we realistically have 4 teams with much of a chance....

What is ironic is for Boston College they go bowling with a win, and quite possibly if they lose, still go bowling.
(This post was last modified: 11-29-2019 09:16 PM by stever20.)
11-29-2019 08:18 PM
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