Following Memphis' loss to #14 Oregon, there are some inevitable questions about the pros and cons of starting 5 freshman players.
Here are some excerpts from a CBS article online (link below) that addresses the situation of Memphis by comparing the team with prior teams that started 5 freshman players.
"...how many (previous) high-major teams have actually predominantly started five freshmen in a season?
Three. They are:
1991-92 Michigan
2013-14 Kentucky
2017-18 Kentucky
The history of starting five freshmen is interesting.
The three teams that have done it combined to go just 33-21 in conference games. None of them won their league. None of them earned better than a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. So the idea that things went smoothly from start to finish isn't accurate. But all three did advance to the Sweet 16. And two of them -- 1991-92 Michigan and 2013-14 Kentucky -- actually made it all the way to the championship game of the NCAA Tournament."
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...e-that-is/
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According to the article, the average conference records of the prior all-freshman high-major teams has been 33-21 (61.1%).
If Memphis wins the same % of conference games, their predicted record would be 11-7 this season, all other things being equal. However, the prior teams played in the highly competitive B1G and SEC, so 11-7 seems much too conservative an estimate for Memphis. 13-5 seems more likely as a minimum number of wins, given that early season conference results have been slightly disappointing thus far.
We don't know how many more games Memphis will be most likely to win, but we know that they lost @ #14 Oregon recently by 8 points, a respectable effort on the road. Thus, they'll probably only drop a notch or two in the top 25.
If Memphis is the best AAC team this season, and the only top 25 team, they could win as many as 17 or 18 conference games. However, their loss at Oregon suggests that they might lose something like 2-3 road games against upper tier conference teams.
Their conference win total seems likely to end up in a broad range between 12 and 18 wins, depending on team health and eligibility status.
If their starters are able to play all the way through the conference schedule, they could win 15-18 games, which Houston and Cincy did last season. Considering that they're all freshmen, however, it might be most prudent to expect an upset or two and a couple of road losses to the best conference teams...
...which would be roughly ~
15 or 16 wins, plus 2-3 AAC tourney wins.
Memphis can probably win 10-11 OOC games.
If they win 17+ total AAC games, they could enter the NCAA with a record of 27 to 29 wins, which would mean a potential #2 or #3 seed.
That leaves only one intruiging question: Will the NCAA impose post-season sanctions, making Memphis ineligible for the tournament?
The decision to defy the NCAA's ruling on Wiseman risks such sanctions, but it will be months before anyone knows what, if any sanctions Memphis, Hardaway, or Wiseman will receive this season.