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Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #1
Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
Following Memphis' loss to #14 Oregon, there are some inevitable questions about the pros and cons of starting 5 freshman players.

Here are some excerpts from a CBS article online (link below) that addresses the situation of Memphis by comparing the team with prior teams that started 5 freshman players.

"...how many (previous) high-major teams have actually predominantly started five freshmen in a season?

Three. They are:

1991-92 Michigan
2013-14 Kentucky
2017-18 Kentucky

The history of starting five freshmen is interesting.

The three teams that have done it combined to go just 33-21 in conference games. None of them won their league. None of them earned better than a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
So the idea that things went smoothly from start to finish isn't accurate. But all three did advance to the Sweet 16. And two of them -- 1991-92 Michigan and 2013-14 Kentucky -- actually made it all the way to the championship game of the NCAA Tournament."


https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...e-that-is/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

According to the article, the average conference records of the prior all-freshman high-major teams has been 33-21 (61.1%).

If Memphis wins the same % of conference games, their predicted record would be 11-7 this season, all other things being equal. However, the prior teams played in the highly competitive B1G and SEC, so 11-7 seems much too conservative an estimate for Memphis. 13-5 seems more likely as a minimum number of wins, given that early season conference results have been slightly disappointing thus far.

We don't know how many more games Memphis will be most likely to win, but we know that they lost @ #14 Oregon recently by 8 points, a respectable effort on the road. Thus, they'll probably only drop a notch or two in the top 25.

If Memphis is the best AAC team this season, and the only top 25 team, they could win as many as 17 or 18 conference games. However, their loss at Oregon suggests that they might lose something like 2-3 road games against upper tier conference teams.

Their conference win total seems likely to end up in a broad range between 12 and 18 wins, depending on team health and eligibility status. If their starters are able to play all the way through the conference schedule, they could win 15-18 games, which Houston and Cincy did last season. Considering that they're all freshmen, however, it might be most prudent to expect an upset or two and a couple of road losses to the best conference teams...

...which would be roughly ~ 15 or 16 wins, plus 2-3 AAC tourney wins.

Memphis can probably win 10-11 OOC games. If they win 17+ total AAC games, they could enter the NCAA with a record of 27 to 29 wins, which would mean a potential #2 or #3 seed.

That leaves only one intruiging question: Will the NCAA impose post-season sanctions, making Memphis ineligible for the tournament?

The decision to defy the NCAA's ruling on Wiseman risks such sanctions, but it will be months before anyone knows what, if any sanctions Memphis, Hardaway, or Wiseman will receive this season.
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2019 04:42 PM by jedclampett.)
11-13-2019 04:32 PM
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GoOwls111 Offline
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RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
Are we sujesting that Memphis has the next "Fab Five"? If so how will they compare position by position?
11-13-2019 04:39 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
(11-13-2019 04:39 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  Are we sujesting that Memphis has the next "Fab Five"? If so how will they compare position by position?

A well-informed and objective Memphis fan could provide those kinds of details, as well as the quality, depth, and balance of the team's reserves.

They may not be as good as the prior teams mentioned, but it does seem likely that they could enter the tournament with 26 to 29 wins. How far they advance will depend on how they measure up with the top 16 teams in the nation.

If they retain their current #15 rank at the end of the season, that would suggest they might end up in the sweet sixteen, possibly higher.
11-13-2019 04:52 PM
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BartlettTigerFan Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
(11-13-2019 04:39 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  Are we sujesting that Memphis has the next "Fab Five"? If so how will they compare position by position?

We aren't suggesting anything. He posted excerpts from a CBS article. They may be suggesting that, although I didn't really read it that way.
11-13-2019 04:55 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
(11-13-2019 04:55 PM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  
(11-13-2019 04:39 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  Are we sujesting that Memphis has the next "Fab Five"? If so how will they compare position by position?

We aren't suggesting anything. He posted excerpts from a CBS article. They may be suggesting that, although I didn't really read it that way.

Maybe I was overly persuaded by the two teams which made the NCAA finals. It's possible that Memphis might be more like the all-frosh team that didn't make it beyond the sweet sixteen.

Also, I considered Memphis to be a high-major team by virtue of starting out as a top 20 team that played quite well on the road against a similarly ranked team. However, no one knows how the team will play over the course of the season.
11-13-2019 05:15 PM
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GoOwls111 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
Personally I thing that the Rookie group at Memphis has the potential to compare well with the original "Fab Five" if they manage to become a bit more disciplined, and they most certainly will as the season progresses.

I'm more of a football fan than basketball, but the way the AAC is shaping up with basketball is very intriguing, and exciting to watch.
11-13-2019 06:03 PM
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BartlettTigerFan Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
The AAC is a power conference, whether the powers that be want to acknowledge it or not.
11-13-2019 06:11 PM
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I_LUV_MEMPHISTIGERS Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
That 13-14' KY team was the year of the "Two Platoons." We aren't that deep.
11-13-2019 06:16 PM
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memphistiger89 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
(11-13-2019 06:03 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  Personally I thing that the Rookie group at Memphis has the potential to compare well with the original "Fab Five" if they manage to become a bit more disciplined, and they most certainly will as the season progresses.

I'm more of a football fan than basketball, but the way the AAC is shaping up with basketball is very intriguing, and exciting to watch.

I don't think the Memphis freshmen are on the level of the "Fab Five." That group was once in a lifetime special.
11-13-2019 06:19 PM
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Stickboy46 Offline
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RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
(11-13-2019 06:16 PM)I_LUV_MEMPHISTIGERS Wrote:  That 13-14' KY team was the year of the "Two Platoons." We aren't that deep.
F that team and their stupid 8 seed.

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11-13-2019 06:39 PM
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Hernando Hills Tiger Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
Point is the freshmen are more talented than the 3 guys returning.
11-13-2019 07:08 PM
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tigerjamesc Offline
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RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
I expect to take some early lumps...as long as we have Wiseman, I’d guess 6-8 losses in the regular season. Add ~3 more without Wiseman.

PS. There’s another article out there on the interwebs pointing out that Memphis’s #1 class is the weakest #1 class in a decade considering where the freshmen were ranked.
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2019 07:13 PM by tigerjamesc.)
11-13-2019 07:10 PM
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GoOwls111 Offline
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RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
(11-13-2019 07:10 PM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  I expect to take some early lumps...as long as we have Wiseman, I’d guess 6-8 losses in the regular season. Add ~3 more without Wiseman.

PS. There’s another article out there on the interwebs pointing out that Memphis’s #1 class is the weakest #1 class in a decade considering where the freshmen were ranked.

Yeah, regarding the ranking of that class... Where would it be ranked if they all decided to go to Duke, Kentucky, or North Carolina, or Kansas, just to name a few...
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2019 08:19 PM by GoOwls111.)
11-13-2019 08:19 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
Has Kentucky done it?
11-14-2019 05:22 AM
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qwerty1 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
(11-13-2019 04:39 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  Are we sujesting that Memphis has the next "Fab Five"? If so how will they compare position by position?

The Fab Five of the University of Michigan were noted and verified cheaters. Are we suggesting has the next "Fab Five ?"
11-14-2019 08:27 AM
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8BitPirate Offline
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RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
ECU approves this message
11-14-2019 08:42 AM
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Def Berkkat Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Pros and Cons of Starting Five Freshmen
CON: Teams with a lot of experience usually make teams with little experience look stupid.
11-14-2019 09:20 AM
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