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Nice analysis RunninGame. I agree, I believe if our D doesn't have to worry about a pass game, NIU's offense will be in trouble.

(11-21-2019 05:22 PM)RunningGame Wrote:  

(11-21-2019 03:59 PM)RaybanBronco Wrote:  

(11-21-2019 03:38 PM)MajorHoople Wrote:  

(11-21-2019 02:20 PM)jubbasubba Wrote:  Rain and Snow on Tuesday in DeKalb. Should be fun!

Weather is the great equalizer.

You read my mind. It benefits NIU IMO. Having said that, I still think we win by 10+ points.

Does it? They've been throwing it a lot more this season. Now, Childers is a much better runner, but outside of him and Harbison they don't have anyone else. Those guys can't have 30 carries each. If they can't throw the ball, we don't have to play guys back as much as we've had to. Our weakest link is our defense, but they can make teams one dimensional. If we only have to stop one dimension, this defense can do that well.

We, on the other hand, have been perfectly fine pounding Bellamy on teams 30 times a game, even if we're down a touchdown and on the ropes, and coming back and winning while playing one-dimensional offense. Tyler and Tucker are capable of explosive runs and wearing down teams, respectively. NIU has zero linebacker depth and will tire quick with offensive linemen in their faces for 50 plays. We may not pass it much if it's 50 degrees and calm anyway.

To win, NIU needs to be dynamic on offense like Toledo and EMU against us. They need to keep guys in coverage and not spying Childers. We don't (though it would be nice...).

Good post, good insight. The only thing I’ll add is that Childers and Harbison have combined for roughly 40 rushes total in each of the last two games. They are capable of racking up some yards and Eating up clock. Again, I think we win by at least 10 points, it’s just worth noting. Who knows, weather might be fine and we could win by 25..but the storm looks to be likely when looking at the forecasts — which means it could be closer than it should be.

As long as we have more points than them when the clock hits 0:00, that’s all that matters!

(11-21-2019 09:42 PM)RaybanBronco Wrote:  

(11-21-2019 05:22 PM)RunningGame Wrote:  

(11-21-2019 03:59 PM)RaybanBronco Wrote:  

(11-21-2019 03:38 PM)MajorHoople Wrote:  

(11-21-2019 02:20 PM)jubbasubba Wrote:  Rain and Snow on Tuesday in DeKalb. Should be fun!

Weather is the great equalizer.

You read my mind. It benefits NIU IMO. Having said that, I still think we win by 10+ points.

Does it? They've been throwing it a lot more this season. Now, Childers is a much better runner, but outside of him and Harbison they don't have anyone else. Those guys can't have 30 carries each. If they can't throw the ball, we don't have to play guys back as much as we've had to. Our weakest link is our defense, but they can make teams one dimensional. If we only have to stop one dimension, this defense can do that well.

We, on the other hand, have been perfectly fine pounding Bellamy on teams 30 times a game, even if we're down a touchdown and on the ropes, and coming back and winning while playing one-dimensional offense. Tyler and Tucker are capable of explosive runs and wearing down teams, respectively. NIU has zero linebacker depth and will tire quick with offensive linemen in their faces for 50 plays. We may not pass it much if it's 50 degrees and calm anyway.

To win, NIU needs to be dynamic on offense like Toledo and EMU against us. They need to keep guys in coverage and not spying Childers. We don't (though it would be nice...).

Good post, good insight. The only thing I’ll add is that Childers and Harbison have combined for roughly 40 rushes total in each of the last two games. They are capable of racking up some yards and Eating up clock. Again, I think we win by at least 10 points, it’s just worth noting. Who knows, weather might be fine and we could win by 25..but the storm looks to be likely when looking at the forecasts — which means it could be closer than it should be.

As long as we have more points than them when the clock hits 0:00, that’s all that matters!

Thanks. I’ll give you this, ball security gets tougher in wet weather, and NIU could get some needed luck there. Thankfully this team is good with ball security.

It is inaccurate to think you must run if it is bad weather. Receivers know when to cut, defenders don't. Hanging onto the ball without fumbles is a bigger issue for a RB than a WR, because there are more defenders near the line of scrimmage.

Just do what works best. Keep the defense off guard, and don't over think decisions based on old and bad conventional "wisdom".

(11-22-2019 06:03 AM)brovol Wrote:  It is inaccurate to think you must run if it is bad weather. Receivers know when to cut, defenders don't. Hanging onto the ball without fumbles is a bigger issue for a RB than a WR, because there are more defenders near the line of scrimmage.

Just do what works best. Keep the defense off guard, and don't over think decisions based on old and bad conventional "wisdom".

Talk about "conventional 'wisdom'."

You obviously never played football in rainy, cold weather.

(11-22-2019 06:03 AM)brovol Wrote:  It is inaccurate to think you must run if it is bad weather. Receivers know when to cut, defenders don't. Hanging onto the ball without fumbles is a bigger issue for a RB than a WR, because there are more defenders near the line of scrimmage.

Just do what works best. Keep the defense off guard, and don't over think decisions based on old and bad conventional "wisdom".

I would love to see someone with more time than me look up Bill Cubit's record past Oct. 15 and compare it to Fleck & Lester.

Running the ball with Midwest guys on crappy, cold MACtion nights works better than slinging it around with Florida kids, I do fervently believe.

Well, there was the 2006 WMU-CMU game played in the worst weather imaginable in Mount Pleasant. Wind. Sleet. Cold. Wet. Miserable.

Cubit kept things conservative by predictably running the ball. Kelly went opposite of "conventional wisdom" and had his O slinging it all over to start. CMU built a lead, then punished WMU when it was forced to pass later in the game. The win put CMU in the MAC Championship Game at our expense.

Kelly knew what his kids could do and was not afraid to gamble.

I'm not a coach. I'm just a fan that likes to eat bratwurst and drink beer on football Saturdays (or Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, or Fridays). I like what works and trust our coaches to know their players well enough to put them in the best position to win.

Prior to that 2006 game, I would have told you Kelly was nuts and Cubit was 100 percent correct. But there's a reason Kelly is making millions in South Bend and I'm not.

(11-22-2019 10:09 AM)GullLake Wrote:  Well, there was the 2006 WMU-CMU game played in the worst weather imaginable in Mount Pleasant. Wind. Sleet. Cold. Wet. Miserable.

Cubit kept things conservative by predictably running the ball. Kelly went opposite of "conventional wisdom" and had his O slinging it all over to start. CMU built a lead, then punished WMU when it was forced to pass later in the game. The win put CMU in the MAC Championship Game at our expense.

Kelly knew what his kids could do and was not afraid to gamble.

I'm not a coach. I'm just a fan that likes to eat bratwurst and drink beer on football Saturdays (or Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, or Fridays). I like what works and trust our coaches to know their players well enough to put them in the best position to win.

Prior to that 2006 game, I would have told you Kelly was nuts and Cubit was 100 percent correct. But there's a reason Kelly is making millions in South Bend and I'm not.

CMU destroyed us that game because they could run and we couldn't. That game supports the run when the weather is crappy theory.

WMU and CMU traded passing TDs in the 1st two drives, and CMU added on a FG to lead 10-7 at the half. Then after that CMU scored 3 rushing TDs of 2, 24, and 17 yards to finish us off. CMU only completed 3 passes in the 2nd half. We did not score after our passing TD on our first drive.

(11-22-2019 10:48 AM)Bronc33 Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 10:09 AM)GullLake Wrote:  Well, there was the 2006 WMU-CMU game played in the worst weather imaginable in Mount Pleasant. Wind. Sleet. Cold. Wet. Miserable.

Cubit kept things conservative by predictably running the ball. Kelly went opposite of "conventional wisdom" and had his O slinging it all over to start. CMU built a lead, then punished WMU when it was forced to pass later in the game. The win put CMU in the MAC Championship Game at our expense.

Kelly knew what his kids could do and was not afraid to gamble.

I'm not a coach. I'm just a fan that likes to eat bratwurst and drink beer on football Saturdays (or Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, or Fridays). I like what works and trust our coaches to know their players well enough to put them in the best position to win.

Prior to that 2006 game, I would have told you Kelly was nuts and Cubit was 100 percent correct. But there's a reason Kelly is making millions in South Bend and I'm not.

CMU destroyed us that game because they could run and we couldn't. That game supports the run when the weather is crappy theory.

WMU and CMU traded passing TDs in the 1st two drives, and CMU added on a FG to lead 10-7 at the half. Then after that CMU scored 3 rushing TDs of 2, 24, and 17 yards to finish us off. CMU only completed 3 passes in the 2nd half. We did not score after our passing TD on our first drive.

CMU's ability to pass effectively early opened-up its run game.

That game was before I was a diehard so can't comment on it, but the primary criticism towards Bill Cubit was he was pass-heavy even in unfavorable passing conditions. The problem is, we didn't really have much of a run-game in those days.

But bravols theory is right for the 2017 CMU game. Our desire to run rather then pass cost us. Kept fumbling the ball when trying to run while CMU kept hitting passes.

I would pass Tuesday, but keep them short, no deep-bombs. That should give Bellamy, Tyler, and Wassink some room to run. As bravol said, do what works. Don't be afraid to mix-it up. Bellamy's amazing and that should work, but can't count on it.

Lastly, TL hasn't raked up the Wins in November games. But I think we have a little more weapons this year then 2017 & 2018.

(11-22-2019 09:39 AM)RunningGame Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 06:03 AM)brovol Wrote:  It is inaccurate to think you must run if it is bad weather. Receivers know when to cut, defenders don't. Hanging onto the ball without fumbles is a bigger issue for a RB than a WR, because there are more defenders near the line of scrimmage.

Just do what works best. Keep the defense off guard, and don't over think decisions based on old and bad conventional "wisdom".

I would love to see someone with more time than me look up Bill Cubit's record past Oct. 15 and compare it to Fleck & Lester.

Running the ball with Midwest guys on crappy, cold MACtion nights works better than slinging it around with Florida kids, I do fervently believe.

Nope. It doesn't.

(11-22-2019 07:16 AM)MajorHoople Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 06:03 AM)brovol Wrote:  It is inaccurate to think you must run if it is bad weather. Receivers know when to cut, defenders don't. Hanging onto the ball without fumbles is a bigger issue for a RB than a WR, because there are more defenders near the line of scrimmage.

Just do what works best. Keep the defense off guard, and don't over think decisions based on old and bad conventional "wisdom".

Talk about "conventional 'wisdom'."

You obviously never played football in rainy, cold weather.

Been a long long time, but yes I did.

(11-22-2019 05:02 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  That game was before I was a diehard so can't comment on it, but the primary criticism towards Bill Cubit was he was pass-heavy even in unfavorable passing conditions. The problem is, we didn't really have much of a run-game in those days.

But bravols theory is right for the 2017 CMU game. Our desire to run rather then pass cost us. Kept fumbling the ball when trying to run while CMU kept hitting passes.

I would pass Tuesday, but keep them short, no deep-bombs. That should give Bellamy, Tyler, and Wassink some room to run. As bravol said, do what works. Don't be afraid to mix-it up. Bellamy's amazing and that should work, but can't count on it.

Lastly, TL hasn't raked up the Wins in November games. But I think we have a little more weapons this year then 2017 & 2018.

We didn’t pass enough in the 2017 CMU game because our backup true freshman QB COULD NOT COMPLETE A PASS longer than 10 yards to our inexperienced recievers. It was like what we did to Ball State this year—in reverse.

I just wanna see a bucket of Gatorade dumped on Lester's head by the end of Tuesday night.

(11-22-2019 06:09 PM)brovol Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 07:16 AM)MajorHoople Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 06:03 AM)brovol Wrote:  It is inaccurate to think you must run if it is bad weather. Receivers know when to cut, defenders don't. Hanging onto the ball without fumbles is a bigger issue for a RB than a WR, because there are more defenders near the line of scrimmage.

Just do what works best. Keep the defense off guard, and don't over think decisions based on old and bad conventional "wisdom".

Talk about "conventional 'wisdom'."

You obviously never played football in rainy, cold weather.

Been a long long time, but yes I did.

One of the biggest fallacies in sports is that you can’t pass in rain or snow. Within reason...a blizzard or torrential down pour aside. High winds is the biggest reason a team has to abandon the pass. There’s a interesting article on this quoting pro QBs on the topic. I’ll link it if I can find it.

When ISN'T it windy in DeKalb?

(11-23-2019 09:49 AM)MajorHoople Wrote:  When ISN'T it windy in DeKalb?

Tuesday mornings from 6:35 until 6:44.

(11-23-2019 09:55 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-23-2019 09:49 AM)MajorHoople Wrote:  When ISN'T it windy in DeKalb?

Tuesday mornings from 6:35 until 6:44.

Do you think we can get them to bump up the start time?

(11-23-2019 10:33 AM)AFLAGWA Wrote:  

(11-23-2019 09:55 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-23-2019 09:49 AM)MajorHoople Wrote:  When ISN'T it windy in DeKalb?

Tuesday mornings from 6:35 until 6:44.

Do you think we can get them to bump up the start time?

Sure....probably wouldn’t affect attendance anyways.