Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Playoff Locks?
Author Message
Crayton Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 159
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 20
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #1
Playoff Locks?
People are saying LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson are all locks. The simulation I use gives each team an 80%+ chance of amking the playoff. But which teams have a loss to give? Is there a more robust way of articulating who is a lock?

I count SIX teams that control their playoff destiny, with a miniscule chance that more than 4 happen. Do you count more or less?
1. Baylor, if undefeated
2. Clemson, if undefeated
3. LSU, with 1 or fewer losses
4. OSU, with 1 or fewer losses
5. Minnesota/Penn State, champs with 1 or fewer losses

I don't know if I agree that a 12-1 Georgia is behind 1-loss Big Ten non-champions (or, for that matter, an LSU team they just beat), but other than that this seems to check out. The media keeps mentioning 11-1 Alabama, but I'd put 11-1 Ohio State as more playoff worthy... of course 'Bama's loss is earlier in the season, which somehow means something.

Here is the full data. Remember that many of these outcomes are mutually exclusive and the chart below could be condensed (ie. "60%, 1-loss Big 12 Champ" or "20%, Iron Bowl winner").

100% 13-0 Baylor, LSU, Ohio State, Minnesota
100% 12-1 Ohio State
99% 12-1 LSU
99% 12-1 Penn State
98% 13-0 Clemson
98% 12-1 Ohio St (lose CCG)
98% 11-1 Ohio St
96% 12-1 LSU (lose CCG)
93% 12-1 Minnesota
82% 12-1 Georgia
80% 12-1 Minnesota (lose CCG)
62% 12-1 Oklahoma
59% 12-1 Baylor
57% 11-2 Wisconsin
42% 10-2 Michigan
38% 12-1 Cincy
34% 12-1 Baylor (lose CCG)
23% 11-1 Alabama
17% 10-2 Auburn
8% 11-2 Penn State (lose CCG)
7% 12-1 Oregon

Personally I think all CCGs should be elimination games... even if the SEC matches #1 vs. #2. Then there should be a wild card game on championship weekend for teams like 11-1 Alabama and the Big Ten east runner-up, for those teams to "play-in" to the playoff, or at least to be playoff-eligible.
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2019 12:31 AM by Crayton.)
11-12-2019 11:45 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

Fighting Muskie Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,902
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 88
I Root For: Ohio St, MAC
Location:
Post: #2
RE: Playoff Locks?
I’m not ready to call anyone a lock yet. There is a lot of football left to be played and I lot can happen.

With that said, of any of the 5 undefeateds runs the table I think they are in. All of the one loss teams need help.
11-12-2019 12:07 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bullet Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 36,509
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 1134
I Root For: Texas, UK, UGA
Location:
Post: #3
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-12-2019 12:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m not ready to call anyone a lock yet. There is a lot of football left to be played and I lot can happen.

With that said, of any of the 5 undefeateds runs the table I think they are in. All of the one loss teams need help.

Agreed.

LSU is the only team that could have 1 loss and still have a good chance without help. And if Ohio St., Baylor and Clemson are unbeaten and LSU lost to an 11-1 UGA in the ccg, LSU is out.
11-12-2019 12:20 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
BePcr07 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,569
Joined: Dec 2015
Reputation: 81
I Root For: Boise St & Zags
Location:
Post: #4
RE: Playoff Locks?
Not that I agree or disagree but what are the calculations that lead a 12-1 Cincinnati (AAC Champion) to having a greater chance of making the playoffs than 11-1 Alabama and 12-1 Oregon (PAC Champion) combined? I'm just more surprised the math came out this way.
11-12-2019 12:51 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
esayem Offline
Hark The Sound!
*

Posts: 5,829
Joined: Feb 2007
Reputation: 194
I Root For: The Heels
Location: Tobacco Road
Post: #5
RE: Playoff Locks?
I have doubts Baylor, Minnesota, and Penn State will win out. Sooo yeah.

LSU still has a trap game vs TAMU as well, not saying it will matter.
11-12-2019 01:08 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 159
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 20
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #6
RE: Playoff Locks?
Updated.

Wisconsin takes the biggest step up the ladder, and is now considered a more likely playoff threat if they win out than a 1-loss Big 12 champ (mind you, these are not head-to-head comparisons, just respective percentages).

Georgia gains ground after surviving Auburn and with the Minnesota and Baylor losses clearing things a bit, but the Bulldogs are still spotted #5 behind potential 12-1 LSU (who they would have just beat) and the Big Ten who may have 2 teams (OSU and PSU/Minn) finish with 1 loss.

Alabama sees their hopes continue to dry after the Tua injury. Cincinnati is for some reason still on the computer's radar but fading fast, and the Pac-12 is an afterthought: barely better than the ACC, but without an undefeated juggernaut; fewest bowl-eligible teams of all 10 FBS conferences, too.

100% 13-0 or 12-1 champs: Ohio State, LSU (+1%), Penn State
100% 12-1 Ohio State (lose CCG, +2%)
99% 13-0 Clemson (+1%)
99% 11-1 Ohio State (+1%)
97% 12-1 LSU (lose CCG, +1%)
94% 12-1 Minnesota (+1%)
89% 12-1 Georgia (+7%)
70% 11-2 Wisconsin (+13%)
59% 12-1 Oklahoma (-3%)
47% 12-1 Baylor (-12%)
47% 10-2 Michigan (+5%)
31% 12-1 Cincinnati (-7%)
19% 11-1 Alabama (-4%)
11% 11-2 Penn State (lose CCG, +3%)
7% 12-1 Oregon (=0%)
<1% Utah, Memphis, Florida

5 Most Common Combinations (teams not listed in rank order)
21.16% LSU & Clemson & Ohio St & Oklahoma
14.62% Georgia & LSU & Clemson & Ohio St
11.08% LSU & Clemson & Penn State & Ohio St
8.64% Alabama & LSU & Clemson & Ohio St
5.75% LSU & Clemson & Ohio St & Baylor
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2019 01:12 AM by Crayton.)
11-19-2019 01:07 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 32,530
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 818
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #7
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-19-2019 01:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  5 Most Common Combinations (teams not listed in rank order)
21.16% LSU & Clemson & Ohio St & Oklahoma
14.62% Georgia & LSU & Clemson & Ohio St
11.08% LSU & Clemson & Penn State & Ohio St
8.64% Alabama & LSU & Clemson & Ohio St
5.75% LSU & Clemson & Ohio St & Baylor

Good work. To me, the most significant thing that happened over the weekend was -thanks to the Georgia win and Baylor loss- that the odds of two SEC teams making it to the playoffs went up significantly.
11-19-2019 09:56 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Fighting Muskie Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,902
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 88
I Root For: Ohio St, MAC
Location:
Post: #8
RE: Playoff Locks?
What are the playoff chances of 12-1 Clemson?
11-19-2019 10:59 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 32,530
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 818
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #9
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-19-2019 10:59 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  What are the playoff chances of 12-1 Clemson?

I would bet under 10%.

Fortunately for Clemson, with their schedule, the chances that there will be a 12-1 Clemson are only about 1%.
11-19-2019 11:02 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 159
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 20
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #10
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-19-2019 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-19-2019 01:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  5 Most Common Combinations (teams not listed in rank order)
21.16% LSU & Clemson & Ohio St & Oklahoma
14.62% Georgia & LSU & Clemson & Ohio St
11.08% LSU & Clemson & Penn State & Ohio St
8.64% Alabama & LSU & Clemson & Ohio St
5.75% LSU & Clemson & Ohio St & Baylor

Good work. To me, the most significant thing that happened over the weekend was -thanks to the Georgia win and Baylor loss- that the odds of two SEC teams making it to the playoffs went up significantly.
Rounding down on the percentages of individual combinations, it looks like the SEC getting 2 teams jumped from 13% to 23%. The most common 3-SEC scenario (Alabama, LSU, and Georgia) increased from 0.33% to 0.44%... exceedingly unlikely, but fun to mention.

(11-19-2019 10:59 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  What are the playoff chances of 12-1 Clemson?
It looks like of the 10,000 simulations all 8805 Clemson playoff appearance occur in one of the 8818 times they go undefeated. Championship weekend I'll start a new thread to examine counter-factuals (What if Cincinnati beat OSU; What if Oregon beat Auburn; etc)
11-19-2019 12:55 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 159
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 20
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #11
RE: Playoff Locks?
Update

LSU and OSU need to lose out in order to miss the playoff. Clemson needs to win out to make the playoff. With Penn State's loss, Georgia finally moves into playoff position.

Minnesota AND Wisconsin are next, should they win out, but the chances of that happening are 1 and 10% respectively, especially now that Ohio State is guaranteed to be the East representative. Michigan too dropped after the Penn State loss to Ohio State, because their potential head-to-head victory over Ohio State only comes in handy when the Buckeyes had a comparable 2 losses.

Oklahoma still has the edge over Alabama, but the gap is closing. After Georgia, these 2 teams are the most likely to accompany LSU, Clemson, and Ohio State to the playoff. Baylor and Cincinnati (not sure what the computer knows which we don't, other than it has no "P5" bias) round out the list of teams with a decent shot at making the playoff.

The Pac-12 has dropped out for good following Oregon's loss. The theoretical if highly unlikely chance that Georgia loses to GT yet beats LSU is now on the board, and Penn State's near-certain victory over Rutgers forms the final backstop for playoff hopefuls. A 1-loss Clemson, Georgia losing to LSU, and even a 10-2 Florida Gator team make appearances at least once in the 10,000 simulations.

Playoff% of record: (chance of record) +%change from last week
100% C0: Clemson (89%) +1%
100% C0: Ohio St (74%) = 0%
100% C0: LSU (53%) =0%
100% L1: LSU (31%) =+3%
100% C1: Ohio St (13%) =0%
100% L1: Ohio St (10%) =0%
100% C1: LSU (9%) =0%
99% C0: Georgia (36%) +10%
75% C0: Minnesota (1%) -19%
67% C0: Wisconsin (10%) -3%
49% C0: Oklahoma (51%) -10%
32% a0: Alabama (72%) +13%
32% C0: Cincy (27%) +1%
27% C0: Baylor (31%) -20%
15% C1: Georgia (<1%) new
15% a0: Michigan (15%) -32%
3% a0: Penn State (99%) new
<1% L1: Georgia (62%), C1: Clemson (5%), L1: Clemson (5%), a0: Florida (91%)

5 Most Common Playoff Fields: (not in rank order)
27.43% Georgia & LSU & Clemson & Ohio St
19.37% LSU & Clemson & Ohio St & Oklahoma
15.34% Alabama & LSU & Clemson & Ohio St
6.96% LSU & Clemson & Ohio St & Cincy
6.22% LSU & Clemson & Ohio St & Baylor
11-25-2019 11:42 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

stever20 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 36,067
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 364
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #12
RE: Playoff Locks?
Sorry but your program is wrong. if Alabama beats Auburn they are in over Oklahoma almost certainly.....

For you to say that Alabama is tied with Cincy for a chance of making the playoffs is just dumb as hell.....
11-26-2019 12:03 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 159
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 20
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #13
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-26-2019 12:03 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Sorry but your program is wrong. if Alabama beats Auburn they are in over Oklahoma almost certainly.....
Alabama and Oklahoma are both 10-1, both sitting outside the current Top 4, and both playing 8-3 rivals to close the season. BUT, Oklahoma will be playing an additional conference championship game against a likely 11-1 Baylor. For 2 comparable teams such as these, the committee will cite the Sooners Big 12 championship (and perhaps that "13th data point") as reason to elevate them over Alabama and into the playoff.

Plus, the chances that Clemson and Georgia win out, LSU defeats A&M, and Ohio State wins the Big Ten are only 25%, that leaves a 75% chance a team like Oklahoma or Alabama would be considered. A 12-1 Oklahoma is picked only 2/3 of the time, while an 11-1 Alabama is picked 3/7 of the time; neither is a lock for that 4th spot and a lot still depends on how convincing those final wins are.
(This post was last modified: 11-27-2019 09:15 AM by Crayton.)
11-27-2019 09:09 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 36,067
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 364
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #14
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-27-2019 09:09 AM)Crayton Wrote:  
(11-26-2019 12:03 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Sorry but your program is wrong. if Alabama beats Auburn they are in over Oklahoma almost certainly.....
Alabama and Oklahoma are both 10-1, both sitting outside the current Top 4, and both playing 8-3 rivals to close the season. BUT, Oklahoma will be playing an additional conference championship game against a likely 11-1 Baylor. For 2 comparable teams such as these, the committee will cite the Sooners Big 12 championship (and perhaps that "13th data point") as reason to elevate them over Alabama and into the playoff.

Plus, the chances that Clemson and Georgia win out, LSU defeats A&M, and Ohio State wins the Big Ten are only 25%, that leaves a 75% chance a team like Oklahoma or Alabama would be considered. A 12-1 Oklahoma is picked only 2/3 of the time, while an 11-1 Alabama is picked 3/7 of the time; neither is a lock for that 4th spot and a lot still depends on how convincing those final wins are.

lol.... I don't think the committee sees Alabama and Oklahoma frankly as comparable.....
11-27-2019 09:25 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 36,067
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 364
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #15
RE: Playoff Locks?
and I can tell you with a billion % certainty.... Alabama has more of a chance to make the tourney than Cincy.

oh and by far your dumbest one... Georgia at 99% chance of making the playoff if they win out..... What moronic scenario would it take for Georgia to not make the playoff. That is just dumb as ****.
11-27-2019 09:31 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
esayem Offline
Hark The Sound!
*

Posts: 5,829
Joined: Feb 2007
Reputation: 194
I Root For: The Heels
Location: Tobacco Road
Post: #16
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-12-2019 01:08 PM)esayem Wrote:  I have doubts Baylor, Minnesota, and Penn State will win out. Sooo yeah.

LSU still has a trap game vs TAMU as well, not saying it will matter.

Wow, Mr. esayem. What great doubts you have!
11-27-2019 09:33 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

BruceMcF Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,852
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 149
I Root For: Reds/Buckeyes/.
Location:
Post: #17
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-27-2019 09:31 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and I can tell you with a billion % certainty.... Alabama has more of a chance to make the tourney than Cincy.

oh and by far your dumbest one... Georgia at 99% chance of making the playoff if they win out..... What moronic scenario would it take for Georgia to not make the playoff. That is just dumb as ****.
Only scenarios I can come up with involve NCAA violations.

But whether having an NCAA violation is more or less than a 0.5% chance (assuming rounding), I couldn't say.
11-28-2019 12:40 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
BePcr07 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,569
Joined: Dec 2015
Reputation: 81
I Root For: Boise St & Zags
Location:
Post: #18
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-27-2019 09:33 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(11-12-2019 01:08 PM)esayem Wrote:  I have doubts Baylor, Minnesota, and Penn State will win out. Sooo yeah.

LSU still has a trap game vs TAMU as well, not saying it will matter.

Wow, Mr. esayem. What great doubts you have!

I have doubts that all 3 of LSU, Ohio St, and Clemson finish undefeated. In fact, I’m willing to bet my CSNBBS account that before this season is all over that at 2 of those 3 will have at least 1 loss.
11-28-2019 12:43 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 36,067
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 364
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #19
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-28-2019 12:40 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(11-27-2019 09:31 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and I can tell you with a billion % certainty.... Alabama has more of a chance to make the tourney than Cincy.

oh and by far your dumbest one... Georgia at 99% chance of making the playoff if they win out..... What moronic scenario would it take for Georgia to not make the playoff. That is just dumb as ****.
Only scenarios I can come up with involve NCAA violations.

But whether having an NCAA violation is more or less than a 0.5% chance (assuming rounding), I couldn't say.

Those NCAA Violations would have be discovered in the period from 8pm on Saturday night of the SEC CCG to noon on Selection Sunday. Yeah, no.
11-28-2019 12:50 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
esayem Offline
Hark The Sound!
*

Posts: 5,829
Joined: Feb 2007
Reputation: 194
I Root For: The Heels
Location: Tobacco Road
Post: #20
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-28-2019 12:43 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(11-27-2019 09:33 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(11-12-2019 01:08 PM)esayem Wrote:  I have doubts Baylor, Minnesota, and Penn State will win out. Sooo yeah.

LSU still has a trap game vs TAMU as well, not saying it will matter.

Wow, Mr. esayem. What great doubts you have!

I have doubts that all 3 of LSU, Ohio St, and Clemson finish undefeated. In fact, I’m willing to bet my CSNBBS account that before this season is all over that at 2 of those 3 will have at least 1 loss.

Of the regular season?!?!


....because that’s what I was referring to.
(This post was last modified: 11-28-2019 08:37 AM by esayem.)
11-28-2019 08:36 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2019 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2019 MyBB Group.