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Playoff Locks?
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-28-2019 12:50 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Those NCAA Violations would have be discovered in the period from 8pm on Saturday night of the SEC CCG to noon on Selection Sunday. Yeah, no.
The statement was "if they win out", so they have anytime to come out now.

So, ok, 99.9% chance if they win out.
11-28-2019 10:17 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Playoff Locks?
I guess we can cross Cincinnati off the list. Haha.

Locks: LSU & Ohio State (unless lose out), and Clemson & Georgia (only if win out)
#5 Minnesota or Wisconsin, if they win the Big Ten
#6 Oklahoma, if wins out
#7 Alabama, if wins out
#8 Baylor, if wins out
#9, lots of other random scenarios, few of which have any real chance of netting a playoff spot.

ESPN's FPI does put Alabama over Oklahoma. 538 gives Oklahoma a more substantial margin over Alabama. We'll have a better idea this week how close that margin is (if both win). The other apparent annomaly is the absence of Utah; a quick sim shows that they'd be neck and neck with Clemson for spot #4 IF they were undefeated, but in reality they've lost to the only good team they've played. 1 Top 25 win (Oregon) plus a loss, puts them in a category similar to Memphis.
11-30-2019 02:37 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #23
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-30-2019 02:37 AM)Crayton Wrote:  I guess we can cross Cincinnati off the list. Haha.

Locks: LSU & Ohio State (unless lose out), and Clemson & Georgia (only if win out)
#5 Minnesota or Wisconsin, if they win the Big Ten
#6 Oklahoma, if wins out
#7 Alabama, if wins out
#8 Baylor, if wins out
#9, lots of other random scenarios, few of which have any real chance of netting a playoff spot.

ESPN's FPI does put Alabama over Oklahoma. 538 gives Oklahoma a more substantial margin over Alabama. We'll have a better idea this week how close that margin is (if both win). The other apparent annomaly is the absence of Utah; a quick sim shows that they'd be neck and neck with Clemson for spot #4 IF they were undefeated, but in reality they've lost to the only good team they've played. 1 Top 25 win (Oregon) plus a loss, puts them in a category similar to Memphis.

Yeah I think Utah is out.

Sorry but Wisconsin has ZERO chance even if they win out of making the playoff.. NONE. Alabama, Oklahoma, Baylor, Ohio St even- all would have more of a chance than Wisconsin...

I think this is going to be one of those things where Oklahoma should be in over Alabama, but Alabama gets in over Oklahoma. Especially if they're impressive tomorrow vs Auburn.
11-30-2019 02:40 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Playoff Locks?
Without Tua it’s unlikely they pass on one loss OU over Utah or Bama.

Baylor is done, I don’t like them over Utah or Bama even as a one loss.

Most interesting scenario is OSU and LSU as one loss losers in CCGs. In that scenario, Minnesota 12-1 Champ is in at #3/4. UGa goes to #1. Clemson 13-0 is #2. Who do you take at #4?

With Cincinnati losing yesterday (and maybe UT finishing off Baylor) I think OSU is out. Can’t lose to PJ Fleck and Co. I don’t know how LSU falls out of the top 4 with a win in Bama.
11-30-2019 05:19 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Playoff Locks?
Update:

100% C0: LSU (68%)
100% L1: LSU (31%)
100% C0: Ohio St (86%)
100% L1: Ohio St (13%)
100% C0: Clemson (94%)
100% C0: Georgia (31%) +1%
70% C0: Oklahoma (58%) +3%
62% C0: Baylor (41%) +35%
30% C0: Wisconsin (13%) -37%
3% a0: Penn State (100%) =0%
<1% a0: Florida (100%) =0%

Tier 1: LSU and OSU have already clinched a playoff spot
Tier 2: Georgia and Clemson are in with wins
Tier 3: Iif Georgia OR Clemson lose) Oklahoma, then Wisconsin, then Baylor
Tier 4: (if Georgia AND Clemson lose) Big 12 Champ AND Wisconsin
Tier 5: If Wisconsin loses too, Penn State joins (or, once in 10,000 sims, Florida)

Wisconsin falls so far after this past week because while they'd have won the Championship tie-breaker over Alabama, they'd lose the #oflosses tie-breaker to the Big 12 Champ.

We haven't seen a front-runner lose in a CCG, and so we don't really know how secure LSU and OSU are. Should we treat the CCGs more as elimination games? The sim processes data for that as well while also pairing the top 2 at larges in a WCG where the winner is also playoff eligible (though may still finish behind 4 champions).
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2019 10:18 AM by Crayton.)
12-01-2019 10:17 AM
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EvilVodka Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Playoff Locks?
(11-27-2019 09:33 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(11-12-2019 01:08 PM)esayem Wrote:  I have doubts Baylor, Minnesota, and Penn State will win out. Sooo yeah.

LSU still has a trap game vs TAMU as well, not saying it will matter.

Wow, Mr. esayem. What great doubts you have!

Except for that trap game thing
12-01-2019 01:08 PM
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