The Reds on Monday reportedly agreed to terms with hard-hitting outfielder Nick Castellanos on a four-year contract. It's been an active offseason already for Cincy, but the Castellanos deal may not be the final flourish. Jon Heyman reports that the Reds are shopping young outfielder/infielder Nick Senzel, who not long ago was the Reds' top prospect.
Presumably, they'd be looking to move Senzel in exchange for a more established piece that helps the 2020 cause. On that front, our own R.J. Anderson not long ago reported that Senzel could be part of a package that the Reds could use in an effort to pry shortstop Francisco Lindor from the Indians.
Senzel is still just 24 years of age, and despite an injury history and no established position he's still got a fairly high ceiling. It would take more than Senzel to land Lindor and his two years of control, but it's at least a starting point.
Quote:It doesn’t appear that there’s a specific deal already lined up, but the signing of Nicholas Castellanos to a four-year contract further crowds the outfield mix, representing the latest move that seems to limit the opportunities for Senzel.
While Senzel was heralded as a potential franchise centerpiece, he hasn’t quite found a fit yet in Cincinnati. At various points since he was selected second overall in the 2016 draft, the versatile 24-year-old has been tasked with lining up at second base, third base, shortstop, and center field.
As presently constituted, the Reds would seem likely to deploy Senzel in some kind of outfield timeshare while perhaps also giving him some innings in the infield. But there’s an obvious alternative, laden with both risk and upside: cashing him in via trade.
Just what might be contemplated isn’t yet clear. The roster’s one glaring area for improvement is shortstop, though perhaps there’s still room to add pitching and the team has long been said to have interest in finding a more offensively capable catcher. Senzel has exhausted his prospect eligibility, but he’s still the type of controllable, MLB-ready asset who could conceivably be a headliner in a package to acquire any of the myriad high-profile trade targets who’ve been discussed over the course of the winter.
There’ll surely be wide interest in Senzel, who could be plugged right into a lineup and remains controllable through the 2025 season. His debut effort wasn’t a grand slam; he slashed .256/.315/.427 (90 wRC+) with a dozen home runs in 414 plate appearances last year. But that’s hardly a miserable showing for a rookie and he’s still seen as possessing ample talent with the bat. The positional versatility makes him a potential fit just about anywhere and the contract situation is a huge positive.
I guess the Nats wouldn't let them talk to Trader Jack McKeon, so they settled on Dusty. Good luck to Dusty - he'll have some talent to throw out there, that's for sure.
I guess the Nats wouldn't let them talk to Trader Jack McKeon, so they settled on Dusty. Good luck to Dusty - he'll have some talent to throw out there, that's for sure.
Plus Dusty's an old school guy, so there's very little risk he'll be using modern technology to steal signs.
Any of you'se aware of a swimming pool injury to Suarez? First I heard...
Quote:Reds expected to hold off on trading Senzel
It appears that the Cincinnati Reds will hold off on trading center fielder Nick Senzel. Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams told The Cincinnati Enquirer that Senzel is expected to be on Cincinnati's Opening Day roster.
"Yeah, I do," Williams said when asked if he thinks Senzel will join the big league roster on Opening Day. "I like what he brings to our club. He's one of our own. He's an impact, young offensive player. They don't come along very often. The flexibility he brings to the club, attitude he brings. At this point, we see him as very much a part of a winning, championship team here."
Senzel was rumored in trade talks for most of the winter. Those ramped up again after Cincinnati inked outfielder Nicholas Castellanos to a four-year deal this week. Castellanos joins a group of outfielders consisting of Senzel, Shogo Akiyama, Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino.
Senzel, 24, underwent right shoulder surgery to repair his labrum back in September and the Reds are hopeful that the youngster will be ready to play at the start of the 2020 season. According to The Enquirer, Senzel began throwing about two weeks ago. He finished his rookie season last year with a .256/.315/.427 (89 OPS+) slash line with 12 home runs, 20 doubles and 42 RBI in 104 games.
Reds general manager Nick Krall also added via The Enquirer that Senzel is not a candidate to play third base if Eugenio Suarez misses part of the regular season. Suarez recently underwent shoulder surgery after an injury he suffered in a swimming pool.
(01-07-2020 02:10 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: Here's how I see the Reds win totals in 2020, using conservative estimates:
75 wins in 2019
+ 4 WAR due to losing Peraza, Kemp, Scooter, Schebler, and Hernandez (they combined for -5.1 WAR in 2019)
+ 3 WAR Moustakas (averaged 2.9 WAR over past 3 seasons; he's replacing the black hole at 2B)
+ 3 WAR full season of Bauer (he was -0.5 WAR for Reds last year, has averaged 3.6 WAR over past 3 years with Indians, he's replacing Mahle's 0.1 WAR)
+ 1 WAR Wade Miley (averaged 1.7 WAR over past 3 seasons; replacing Roark and Wood's combined 1.3 WAR)
+ 2 WAR Senzel 2nd year improvement (only 0.6 WAR last season for a top-10 MLB prospect; played with injured wrist)
+ 1 WAR Shogo (assuming 2 WAR and that he replaces Puig's 400 PA and VanMeter's 260 PA who combined for 1.1 WAR)
- 1 WAR at SS (assuming Galvis does 1 WAR worse than Iglesias's 1.5 WAR in 2019)
- 1 WAR Suarez regression to mean (had career high 4.5 WAR in 2019, after 4.2 in 2018 and 3.7 in 2017)
+ 1 WAR Votto regression to mean (had career-low 1.6 WAR in 2019, after 3.5 n 2018 and 7.4 in 2017)
Add it all up, and you have 88 wins.
Plus, the Reds still have time to add other pieces.
Your conservative estimate is pretty spot on with Matt Vasgersian's projection who was on MLB Network yesterday and sees the NL Central projecting as:
I was thinking of updating this with the Castellanos signing. The question is: who does Castellanos take at-bats away from?
If there's few injuries, then it's probably from Aquino/Winker/Ervin. Which means the Reds spend $16 million to win maybe 1 extra game.
If there's tons of injuries, then he's taking at-bats away from replacement-level guys like Jankowski or VanMeter. But if there's tons of injuries, the Reds aren't likely to make the playoffs anyways.
(01-07-2020 02:10 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: Here's how I see the Reds win totals in 2020, using conservative estimates:
75 wins in 2019
+ 4 WAR due to losing Peraza, Kemp, Scooter, Schebler, and Hernandez (they combined for -5.1 WAR in 2019)
+ 3 WAR Moustakas (averaged 2.9 WAR over past 3 seasons; he's replacing the black hole at 2B)
+ 3 WAR full season of Bauer (he was -0.5 WAR for Reds last year, has averaged 3.6 WAR over past 3 years with Indians, he's replacing Mahle's 0.1 WAR)
+ 1 WAR Wade Miley (averaged 1.7 WAR over past 3 seasons; replacing Roark and Wood's combined 1.3 WAR)
+ 2 WAR Senzel 2nd year improvement (only 0.6 WAR last season for a top-10 MLB prospect; played with injured wrist)
+ 1 WAR Shogo (assuming 2 WAR and that he replaces Puig's 400 PA and VanMeter's 260 PA who combined for 1.1 WAR)
- 1 WAR at SS (assuming Galvis does 1 WAR worse than Iglesias's 1.5 WAR in 2019)
- 1 WAR Suarez regression to mean (had career high 4.5 WAR in 2019, after 4.2 in 2018 and 3.7 in 2017)
+ 1 WAR Votto regression to mean (had career-low 1.6 WAR in 2019, after 3.5 n 2018 and 7.4 in 2017)
Add it all up, and you have 88 wins.
Plus, the Reds still have time to add other pieces.
Your conservative estimate is pretty spot on with Matt Vasgersian's projection who was on MLB Network yesterday and sees the NL Central projecting as:
I was thinking of updating this with the Castellanos signing. The question is: who does Castellanos take at-bats away from?
If there's few injuries, then it's probably from Aquino/Winker/Ervin. Which means the Reds spend $16 million to win maybe 1 extra game.
If there's tons of injuries, then he's taking at-bats away from replacement-level guys like Jankowski or VanMeter. But if there's tons of injuries, the Reds aren't likely to make the playoffs anyways.
I think he may be only worth 1-2 additional wins but if that's the difference between the Reds making the playoffs or not, especially avoiding the wild card play-in game, I think it's worth it for the FO.
The OF will be weird to calculate WAR as a projection because of all the moving parts. Assuming everyone is healthy all year and no one gets traded (unlikely), for 3 spots and 300% total, I see the workload projecting as..
Just my personal guess and I see a lot of platooning depending on whether they're facing a LH or RH pitcher. I tried calculating percentages into plate appearances using 2019 Baseball Reference numbers but they said our outfielders had ~2200 plate appearances which I find hard to believe.
Will be nice having the extra roster spot and we'll be able to carry an extra bench player this year.
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2020 11:16 AM by dubcat14.)
Reds pluck another free agent from a Central Division rival in ex-Cubs RHRP Pedro Strop. He's been outstanding over most of his career but struggled ERA wise last year largely due to a huge spike in HR/FB ratio. However most of his other peripherals were pretty much in line with his career norms including a solid history as a ground ball pitcher. Per Redzone poster: "mlb trade rumors had strop as the highest ranked free agent reliever left on the board (and the only one left in his top 50 overall free agents to begin the offseason)". As a reliever, especially at his age, he's no sure thing to excel, but he's got a shot to really help us and well worth the incentive-laden deal (1 year @$1.8M that can almost double to $3.5 if he meets all incentives) he got.
Reds continue killing it this offseason...
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2020 08:48 PM by Bearhawkeye.)
Long suffering Reds fans (like me) who reveled in three world championships in a 15 year period have to be cautiously optimistic. Some talent has been stockpiled and while that doesn't always guarantee that the pieces fit together, a couple of starting pitchers who can prevent double digit losing streaks, and some guys who can drive baserunners in should keep the 2020 Reds in the hunt. At this point respectability would be welcomed--especially when I'm with my brother-in-law from Cleveland, a diehard Indians fan.
Quote:“I’ve always thought about not striking out after the count is two strikes,” Akiyama said. “Instead of trying to hit the ball, I just try to make contact if it comes into the strike zone. I always change my style of hitting depending on the count. Whatever way I can make contact with the ball, that’s all I can try to do.”
On Monday, Reds manager David Bell stopped short of saying Akiyama would be his everyday leadoff hitter.
“I would say, ‘playing a lot’ and being a big presence on our team, a significant player that’s going to get a lot of playing time,” Bell said. “That’s how we would like for it to play out. With our outfield depth being a strength, I don’t know if any of our guys will have to play every day.”
However, Bell did say that if Akiyama and first baseman Joey Votto are both in the lineup, that he would bat them first and second in the order. Votto has a .421 career on-base percentage.
“I like that option,” Bell said. “When they’re both in there, they are two guys who are going to see a lot of pitches. They’re not afraid to go deep in the count. Definitely, there’s a track record of getting on base. It would be great if it works out that way. It makes a lot of sense.”
Akiyama, who will turn 32 on April 16, is batting .346/.370/.385 (9-for-26) in nine games this spring. He feels that pitchers are still experimenting with their pitches against him.
“During Spring Training games, I haven’t been able to work the count as much as I wanted to,” Akiyama said. “I’ve been able to get some hits, but they weren’t ideal hits. My goal every day is to be able to get a single, get on base and that’s what I’ve been focusing on every day.”
Bell praised Akiyama’s professionalism, preparation and the quality of his at-bats.
“We heard many, many good things about him and they’ve all been kind of right and in a lot of ways, what I expected to see. It’s all very positive,” Bell said. “He does have a great skill of putting the bat on the ball. It’s shown up in his stats -- the high averages, the amount of hits he gets. All that is as advertised and a big reason why we’ve brought him in. Everything we’re seeing leads us to believe he’ll be that guy for us.”
I read somewhere that one of those bombs he hit actually left Wrigley iirc. While I can't wait to see him someday drop them on Wrigley, I think he's absolutely going to love the Sundeck at GABP if he pans out. I recommend checking out the article linked above, but for those that won't I'll give you one tidbit: his favorite player is Ken Griffey, Jr.
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2020 10:21 PM by Bearhawkeye.)
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