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My playoff break down
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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My playoff break down
As I see it, Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota, LSU, Alabama, Clemson, and Baylor are all in “win and in” scenarios. It would be very difficult to deny a playoff berth to one of these schools in they are undefeated and conference champs.

Georgia is similarly in a win and in scenario. Hard to see a 1 loss SEC champ left out.

Oregon, Utah, and Oklahoma all need to win out and get help by having teams above them lose.

Who can’t afford a loss:
Oregon
Utah
Oklahoma
Georgia
Clemson
Baylor

Clemson gets lumped in here due to the overall weakness of the ACC. A 1 loss non-champ, particularly if they are LSU, Alabama, Ohio St, or Penn St, definitely gets in over them due to SOS.

Baylor is in here too because the human and computer elements are both down on them and they lack the name brand appeal of some of the others in the hunt. Splitting two games with Oklahoma does not imbue a lot of confidence in the Bears.

The other 5 can still sneak into the playoff with a loss right now but it will be far trickier than if undefeated.

There you have it—the 2019 CFP race is down to 11 teams.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2019 09:07 AM by Fighting Muskie.)
11-05-2019 09:04 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 09:04 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  As I see it, Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota, LSU, Alabama, Clemson, and Baylor are all in “win and in” scenarios. It would be very difficult to deny a playoff berth to one of these schools in they are undefeated and conference champs.

Georgia is similarly in a win and in scenario. Hard to see a 1 loss SEC champ left out.

Oregon, Utah, and Oklahoma all need to win out and get help by having teams above them lose.

Who can’t afford a loss:
Oregon
Utah
Oklahoma
Georgia
Clemson
Baylor

Clemson gets lumped in here due to the overall weakness of the ACC. A 1 loss non-champ, particularly if they are LSU, Alabama, Ohio St, or Penn St, definitely gets in over them due to SOS.

Baylor is in here too because the human and computer elements are both down on them and they lack the name brand appeal of some of the others in the hunt. Splitting two games with Oklahoma does not imbue a lot of confidence in the Bears.

The other 5 can still sneak into the playoff with a loss right now but it will be far trickier than if undefeated.

There you have it—the 2019 CFP race is down to 11 teams.

A very solid assessment. well done.
11-05-2019 09:21 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: My playoff break down
So 8 teams control their own destiny right now. Seems about right.

I would add to who can't afford a loss quite frankly- Minnesota. I think they lose a game here and they're done.
11-05-2019 09:24 AM
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Hokie4Skins Offline
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RE: My playoff break down
Baylor has some good wins (KSU, ISU, Oklahoma State) so it must be the OOC schedule that's hurting them.
11-05-2019 09:57 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 09:57 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Baylor has some good wins (KSU, ISU, Oklahoma State) so it must be the OOC schedule that's hurting them.

Stephen F Austin
UTSA
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So, yeah......
11-05-2019 10:02 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  So 8 teams control their own destiny right now. Seems about right.

I would add to who can't afford a loss quite frankly- Minnesota. I think they lose a game here and they're done.

Yeah Minnesota can't lose a game and get in. Even if they were to say lose to OSU and then avenge it in the title game because of name value they'd be last on the list of 1 loss teams because of name value.
11-05-2019 10:25 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  So 8 teams control their own destiny right now. Seems about right.

I would add to who can't afford a loss quite frankly- Minnesota. I think they lose a game here and they're done.

Let’s say they lose to Penn St But beat Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin en route to upsetting Ohio St in the CCG. They’d have 3 wins over top 20 teams. I think they would still get in.

That scenario would potentially have Ohio St, Penn St, and Minnesota all with one loss but Minnesota wearing the crown. It would take some real chicanery to leave them out.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2019 10:33 AM by Fighting Muskie.)
11-05-2019 10:29 AM
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BePcr07 Online
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RE: My playoff break down
It'd be easy for the committee if we had 4 undefeated conference champions. They would have a very legitimate and defendable reason they chose the four teams.

B1G: Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota
SEC: LSU, Alabama
ACC: Clemson
XII: Baylor

The PAC seems to have found themselves in a terrible position making the playoffs in only years 1 and 3 out of 5 and year 6 looking from the outside in. Something will have to be done if they care enough.
11-05-2019 10:39 AM
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quo vadis Online
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 09:04 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There you have it—the 2019 CFP race is down to 11 teams.

Good assessment. Really can't quibble with it. If forced to quibble I would agree with those who say Minnesota can't afford a loss. They are like Baylor in that regard.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2019 10:46 AM by quo vadis.)
11-05-2019 10:44 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 10:29 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  So 8 teams control their own destiny right now. Seems about right.

I would add to who can't afford a loss quite frankly- Minnesota. I think they lose a game here and they're done.

Let’s say they lose to Penn St But beat Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin en route to upsetting Ohio St in the CCG. They’d have 3 wins over top 20 teams. I think they would still get in.

That scenario would potentially have Ohio St, Penn St, and Minnesota all with one loss but Minnesota wearing the crown. It would take some real chicanery to leave them out.

so like 2-3 years ago...

Also I'm seeing only 2 top 20 wins. Ohio St, but then only 1 of Wisconsin/Iowa.
11-05-2019 10:44 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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RE: My playoff break down
Minnesota PSU one loss not done but it can’t be the one this weekend. Minnesota slipping after PSU but beating OSU/PSU in the CCG is close to a lock.

Undefeated Baylor unlikely.

LSU one loss (@Bama) wild card can easily slip in over Big 12 and PAC 12 one loss.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2019 11:52 AM by RUScarlets.)
11-05-2019 11:52 AM
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quo vadis Online
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 11:52 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Minnesota PSU one loss not done but it can’t be the one this weekend. Minnesota slipping after PSU but beating OSU/PSU in the CCG is close to a lock.

Undefeated Baylor unlikely.

LSU one loss (@Bama) wild card can easily slip in over Big 12 and PAC 12 one loss.

When it comes to a currently unbeaten team losing a game from here on out and still being viable for the playoffs, the eye test will be very important.

E.g., LSU loses to Alabama 21-17 in a hard fought game is one thing, losing 30-0 would be very different.
11-05-2019 11:56 AM
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EvilVodka Offline
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 11:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 11:52 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Minnesota PSU one loss not done but it can’t be the one this weekend. Minnesota slipping after PSU but beating OSU/PSU in the CCG is close to a lock.

Undefeated Baylor unlikely.

LSU one loss (@Bama) wild card can easily slip in over Big 12 and PAC 12 one loss.

When it comes to a currently unbeaten team losing a game from here on out and still being viable for the playoffs, the eye test will be very important.

E.g., LSU loses to Alabama 21-17 in a hard fought game is one thing, losing 30-0 would be very different.

Ya, I think a blow out would sink LSU, especially with the PAC 12 creeping up
11-05-2019 12:10 PM
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EvilVodka Offline
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 09:57 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Baylor has some good wins (KSU, ISU, Oklahoma State) so it must be the OOC schedule that's hurting them.

Baylor still has Texas and Oklahoma in front of them. Possibly two Oklahoma games

I think they will lose and be out rather fast
11-05-2019 12:12 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 10:29 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  So 8 teams control their own destiny right now. Seems about right.

I would add to who can't afford a loss quite frankly- Minnesota. I think they lose a game here and they're done.

Let’s say they lose to Penn St But beat Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin en route to upsetting Ohio St in the CCG. They’d have 3 wins over top 20 teams. I think they would still get in.

That scenario would potentially have Ohio St, Penn St, and Minnesota all with one loss but Minnesota wearing the crown. It would take some real chicanery to leave them out.

The win over Northwestern would not be that impressive. More importantly, Minnesota had to come-from-behind in the fourth quarter to beat South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. Against FSU, they scored with 46 seconds left to force overtime. Against GSU, they scored with 13 seconds to pull it out. So even if they lost to Penn State and beat Ohio State, they are not getting in. Minnesota has to be undefeated.
11-05-2019 12:15 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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RE: My playoff break down
A UGa type loss to SC may or may not be worse than a 2-3 score loss against a top 20 team. I think home or away matters as well.

Minnesota slipping @NWU probably won’t sink them if they run the rest of the table. The fact that Minnesota gets a game against PSU in the regular season really boosts their SoS.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2019 12:36 PM by RUScarlets.)
11-05-2019 12:24 PM
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EvilVodka Offline
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 12:15 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 10:29 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  So 8 teams control their own destiny right now. Seems about right.

I would add to who can't afford a loss quite frankly- Minnesota. I think they lose a game here and they're done.

Let’s say they lose to Penn St But beat Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin en route to upsetting Ohio St in the CCG. They’d have 3 wins over top 20 teams. I think they would still get in.

That scenario would potentially have Ohio St, Penn St, and Minnesota all with one loss but Minnesota wearing the crown. It would take some real chicanery to leave them out.

The win over Northwestern would not be that impressive. More importantly, Minnesota had to come-from-behind in the fourth quarter to beat South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. Against FSU, they scored with 46 seconds left to force overtime. Against GSU, they scored with 13 seconds to pull it out. So even if they lost to Penn State and beat Ohio State, they are not getting in. Minnesota has to be undefeated.

Basically a 1-loss Big 10 champ Minnesota would need help. Would they have a better resume than a Big XII champ 12-1 Oklahoma, PAC 12 champ 12-1 Oregon, or 11-1 LSU?
11-05-2019 12:27 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 10:39 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It'd be easy for the committee if we had 4 undefeated conference champions. They would have a very legitimate and defendable reason they chose the four teams.

B1G: Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota
SEC: LSU, Alabama
ACC: Clemson
XII: Baylor

The PAC seems to have found themselves in a terrible position making the playoffs in only years 1 and 3 out of 5 and year 6 looking from the outside in. Something will have to be done if they care enough.

Oregon would be in the playoff picture if they win their last three regular season games (Arizona, at ASU, Oregon State) and win the Pac-12 Championship game. They would end up 12-1, with 12 straight wins and be the first Pac-12 school to go through the conference undefeated since 2010. Their lone loss would be to Auburn in the last nine seconds in Arlington. A game they had and choked away.
11-05-2019 12:33 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 12:27 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:15 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 10:29 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  So 8 teams control their own destiny right now. Seems about right.

I would add to who can't afford a loss quite frankly- Minnesota. I think they lose a game here and they're done.

Let’s say they lose to Penn St But beat Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin en route to upsetting Ohio St in the CCG. They’d have 3 wins over top 20 teams. I think they would still get in.

That scenario would potentially have Ohio St, Penn St, and Minnesota all with one loss but Minnesota wearing the crown. It would take some real chicanery to leave them out.

The win over Northwestern would not be that impressive. More importantly, Minnesota had to come-from-behind in the fourth quarter to beat South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. Against FSU, they scored with 46 seconds left to force overtime. Against GSU, they scored with 13 seconds to pull it out. So even if they lost to Penn State and beat Ohio State, they are not getting in. Minnesota has to be undefeated.

Basically a 1-loss Big 10 champ Minnesota would need help. Would they have a better resume than a Big XII champ 12-1 Oklahoma, PAC 12 champ 12-1 Oregon, or 11-1 LSU?
Or 11-1 Penn St, who beat them.
11-05-2019 12:43 PM
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RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 12:33 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 10:39 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It'd be easy for the committee if we had 4 undefeated conference champions. They would have a very legitimate and defendable reason they chose the four teams.

B1G: Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota
SEC: LSU, Alabama
ACC: Clemson
XII: Baylor

The PAC seems to have found themselves in a terrible position making the playoffs in only years 1 and 3 out of 5 and year 6 looking from the outside in. Something will have to be done if they care enough.

Oregon would be in the playoff picture if they win their last three regular season games (Arizona, at ASU, Oregon State) and win the Pac-12 Championship game. They would end up 12-1, with 12 straight wins and be the first Pac-12 school to go through the conference undefeated since 2010. Their lone loss would be to Auburn in the last nine seconds in Arlington. A game they had and choked away.
Oregon doesn't get in over

13-0 Ohio St
13-0 Clemson
13-0 Alabama/LSU or 12-1 Georgia
11-1 Alabama/LSU(who beat Auburn)
11-05-2019 12:45 PM
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