Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
My playoff break down
Author Message
stever20 Online
Legend
*

Posts: 36,081
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 364
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #41
RE: My playoff break down
(11-06-2019 05:48 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-06-2019 05:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 01:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  If you assume unbeaten Clemson, unbeaten Ohio St. and the SEC champ are in, then you get Oklahoma in the threesome vs. a non-champ. I think they get in regardless of who the non-champ is. To leave out a non-champ, they would have to put the Big 10 or SEC 1 loss runnerup in the top 3 and compare Oklahoma to say an unbeaten Clemson.

Forgetting about the loser of LSU/Alabama for a moment, the last spot could boil down to a one-loss Big 12 or PAC champ.

In that case, I slightly like the PAC champ's chances. I think the rankings from last night are a signal that the committee is smiling on the PAC.

Strange, because all of the computers say the Big 12 has been the best conference this year.

Here is another way of looking at it. At the end of the regular season, Alabama has one loss, as does Oregon and OU. All three are 11-1. I would pick Alabama. But, if Oregon beats a top ten Utah and OU beats a top 15 Kansas State in their championships games, then I think they have the edge. OU would have avenged their loss to KSU. The committee has favored schools that win their conference championship game.

From there, it is a toss-up between Oregon and OU. I think Oregon gets in with 12 consecutive wins and being undefeated in conference play, the first time that has happened in the Pac-12 since 2010. With their only loss to Auburn in the last ten seconds of the game, it feels like they would get it over OU. But it is tight.

You say the committee has favored schools that win their conference championship game. Not really. We've had now what 2 non champions in already?

Sorry, but if LSU is sitting there at 11-1, they're in the playoff. No matter what Oregon, Utah, or Oklahoma do. Alabama is closer- but still think they would get in(especially if Tua isn't good on Saturday and they lose- the injury excuse).
11-06-2019 11:02 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
toddjnsn Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 11,381
Joined: Sep 2009
Reputation: 127
I Root For: WMU, MAC
Location: Grand Rapids, MI
Post: #42
RE: My playoff break down
Quote:As I see it, Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota, LSU, Alabama, Clemson, and Baylor are all in “win and in” scenarios.

I can't see an undefeated P5 not making it to the Top 4 due to it = "playoff". Regardless of schedule.

Unless of course the committee ranking them want to press the NCAA to push for an 8-team playoff.

If you get 2 undefeated G5s where only 1 makes a NY Bowl, or 1 undefeated P5 not making the 4-team playoff bowls -- an 8-team playoff will come real quick.

Butt, we can hope NOBODY's UNDEFEATED, except for Minnesota for some controversy!

- Minnesota 13-0 [wins B1G in OT due to Ohio St QB mild injury before game + OSU RB suspended for 1 game due to last reg season game]
- Georgia 12-1 [wins SEC]
- Utah 12-1 [wins P12]
- Baylor 12-1 [wins B12]
- Clemson 12-1 [loses ACC]
- Alabama 12-1 [loses SEC]
- Ohio State 12-1 [loses B1G]

Do ya pick? Georgia would be the only sure-pick no-matter-what. Would Minnesota? Probably?
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2019 02:37 AM by toddjnsn.)
11-07-2019 02:36 AM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 32,538
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 818
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #43
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 02:36 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  If you get 2 undefeated G5s where only 1 makes a NY Bowl, or 1 undefeated P5 not making the 4-team playoff bowls -- an 8-team playoff will come real quick.

Two undefeated G5s won't put any pressure at all on the powers that be to expand the playoffs. Now if an undefeated P5 champ doesn't make it, that could cause an issue, particularly if it is a B1G or SEC champ.

But the latter won't happen.
11-07-2019 09:34 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
SoCalBobcat78 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,750
Joined: Jan 2014
Reputation: 63
I Root For: TXST, UCLA, CBU
Location:
Post: #44
RE: My playoff break down
(11-06-2019 11:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-06-2019 05:48 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-06-2019 05:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 01:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  If you assume unbeaten Clemson, unbeaten Ohio St. and the SEC champ are in, then you get Oklahoma in the threesome vs. a non-champ. I think they get in regardless of who the non-champ is. To leave out a non-champ, they would have to put the Big 10 or SEC 1 loss runnerup in the top 3 and compare Oklahoma to say an unbeaten Clemson.

Forgetting about the loser of LSU/Alabama for a moment, the last spot could boil down to a one-loss Big 12 or PAC champ.

In that case, I slightly like the PAC champ's chances. I think the rankings from last night are a signal that the committee is smiling on the PAC.

Strange, because all of the computers say the Big 12 has been the best conference this year.

Here is another way of looking at it. At the end of the regular season, Alabama has one loss, as does Oregon and OU. All three are 11-1. I would pick Alabama. But, if Oregon beats a top ten Utah and OU beats a top 15 Kansas State in their championships games, then I think they have the edge. OU would have avenged their loss to KSU. The committee has favored schools that win their conference championship game.

From there, it is a toss-up between Oregon and OU. I think Oregon gets in with 12 consecutive wins and being undefeated in conference play, the first time that has happened in the Pac-12 since 2010. With their only loss to Auburn in the last ten seconds of the game, it feels like they would get it over OU. But it is tight.

You say the committee has favored schools that win their conference championship game. Not really. We've had now what 2 non champions in already?

Sorry, but if LSU is sitting there at 11-1, they're in the playoff. No matter what Oregon, Utah, or Oklahoma do. Alabama is closer- but still think they would get in(especially if Tua isn't good on Saturday and they lose- the injury excuse).

Nice try, but Notre Dame got in last year because they were undefeated in the regular season. Ohio State was 12-1 and a conference champion, but loss out to Oklahoma for the 4th spot.
It was actually a Georgia vs. Oklahoma debate for the 4th spot. Ohio State's inconsistency, combined with a blowout loss to Purdue, doomed them. That's why Ohio State ended up No. 6 and Georgia No. 5.

OU was a 1 loss conference champion with their only loss on a neutral field, a close loss to a ranked Texas team that they avenged in the conference championship game. The 2018 Ohio State football team is the only example of a one loss team that won their conference championship game and did not get into the college football playoffs.

Four times in the five year period of the College Football Playoff era, the No. 5 team in the CFP rankings entering conference championship week ended up in the College Football Playoff. OU jumped past Georgia in 2018 after winning their conference championship. In 2017, when Alabama went from 5th to 4th, an undefeated Wisconsin lost in the Big Ten Championship game. in 2015, No. 5 Michigan State moved up after beating an unbeaten Iowa team in the Big Ten Championship game. In 2014, No. 5 Ohio State jumped past TCU after winning the Big Ten Conference Championship. The Big 12 did not have a conference championship game in 2014.

The conference championship games have clearly influenced the committee in the past. There is no example of a one loss at-large team earning a playoff spot over a one loss conference champion in the five year history of the CFP. Alabama got the 4th spot in 2017 because the Big 12 and Pac-12 conference champions both had two losses. So, in the hypothetical that we were discussing, a one loss LSU would have to jump both a one loss conference champion Oklahoma and a one loss conference champion in Oregon. It could happen, but it never has happened. LSU would be sitting on the sidelines while OU and Oregon are celebrating championship wins over ranked teams. I would not call that helpful to LSU.
11-07-2019 09:57 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Online
Legend
*

Posts: 36,081
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 364
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #45
RE: My playoff break down
while yes we haven't had a 1 loss non champion get in over a 1 loss champion- I don't think it's a reach to say that it's coming.....

It's definitely no lock for Oklahoma or Oregon(especially since they lost to Auburn while LSU beat them) or Utah. Those 3 teams are definitely rooting for LSU to win in a blowout(don't want a close game because the injury thing with Tua comes into play if Alabama goes 11-1 with a close loss to LSU).
11-07-2019 10:50 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 32,538
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 818
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #46
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 09:57 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  The conference championship games have clearly influenced the committee in the past.

Since 17 out of 20 CFP teams have been P5 conference champions, it does seem to be the case that the CFP committee cares about conference championship games.
11-07-2019 12:02 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Online
Legend
*

Posts: 36,081
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 364
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #47
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 12:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 09:57 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  The conference championship games have clearly influenced the committee in the past.

Since 17 out of 20 CFP teams have been P5 conference champions, it does seem to be the case that the CFP committee cares about conference championship games.

They care, but it isn't a must. LSU this year would present a very interesting test case.
11-07-2019 12:15 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 32,538
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 818
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #48
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 12:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 12:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 09:57 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  The conference championship games have clearly influenced the committee in the past.

Since 17 out of 20 CFP teams have been P5 conference champions, it does seem to be the case that the CFP committee cares about conference championship games.

They care, but it isn't a must. LSU this year would present a very interesting test case.

Yes, because the one common thread in the three cases where the non-champ got in, got in over a P5 champ who had more losses. Ohio State with one loss got in over Penn State with two losses, Alabama with one loss got in over Ohio State with two losses, and undefeated Notre Dame got in over P5 champs with losses.

If LSU has one loss, they might be going up against a Big 12 or PAC champ with also just one loss, and history doesn't favor them then.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2019 01:34 PM by quo vadis.)
11-07-2019 01:33 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Online
Legend
*

Posts: 36,081
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 364
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #49
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 01:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 12:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 12:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 09:57 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  The conference championship games have clearly influenced the committee in the past.

Since 17 out of 20 CFP teams have been P5 conference champions, it does seem to be the case that the CFP committee cares about conference championship games.

They care, but it isn't a must. LSU this year would present a very interesting test case.

Yes, because the one common thread in the three cases where the non-champ got in, got in over a P5 champ who had more losses. Ohio State with one loss got in over Penn State with two losses, Alabama with one loss got in over Ohio State with two losses, and undefeated Notre Dame got in over P5 champs with losses.

If LSU has one loss, they might be going up against a Big 12 or PAC champ with also just one loss, and history doesn't favor them then.

Guess the only comparable time was Ohio St back in 2015 I guess- didn't make it while Oklahoma did.....

I think the one thing that would help LSU is if the P12 champ is Oregon. The Auburn comp really hurts Oregon there IMO....
11-07-2019 02:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
dbackjon Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,818
Joined: May 2010
Reputation: 224
I Root For: NAU/Illini
Location:
Post: #50
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 02:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 01:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 12:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 12:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 09:57 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  The conference championship games have clearly influenced the committee in the past.

Since 17 out of 20 CFP teams have been P5 conference champions, it does seem to be the case that the CFP committee cares about conference championship games.

They care, but it isn't a must. LSU this year would present a very interesting test case.

Yes, because the one common thread in the three cases where the non-champ got in, got in over a P5 champ who had more losses. Ohio State with one loss got in over Penn State with two losses, Alabama with one loss got in over Ohio State with two losses, and undefeated Notre Dame got in over P5 champs with losses.

If LSU has one loss, they might be going up against a Big 12 or PAC champ with also just one loss, and history doesn't favor them then.

Guess the only comparable time was Ohio St back in 2015 I guess- didn't make it while Oklahoma did.....

I think the one thing that would help LSU is if the P12 champ is Oregon. The Auburn comp really hurts Oregon there IMO....

Last second loss, neutral site, first game of the season. CFP committee needs to encourage MORE of these types of matchups instead of penalizing teams that put themselves out there.

Oregon could have played New Mexico State instead and be undefeated.
11-07-2019 02:44 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Online
Legend
*

Posts: 36,081
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 364
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #51
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 02:44 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 02:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 01:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 12:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 12:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Since 17 out of 20 CFP teams have been P5 conference champions, it does seem to be the case that the CFP committee cares about conference championship games.

They care, but it isn't a must. LSU this year would present a very interesting test case.

Yes, because the one common thread in the three cases where the non-champ got in, got in over a P5 champ who had more losses. Ohio State with one loss got in over Penn State with two losses, Alabama with one loss got in over Ohio State with two losses, and undefeated Notre Dame got in over P5 champs with losses.

If LSU has one loss, they might be going up against a Big 12 or PAC champ with also just one loss, and history doesn't favor them then.

Guess the only comparable time was Ohio St back in 2015 I guess- didn't make it while Oklahoma did.....

I think the one thing that would help LSU is if the P12 champ is Oregon. The Auburn comp really hurts Oregon there IMO....

Last second loss, neutral site, first game of the season. CFP committee needs to encourage MORE of these types of matchups instead of penalizing teams that put themselves out there.

Oregon could have played New Mexico State instead and be undefeated.

but that doesn't change the fact that Oregon did lose to Auburn, while LSU beat Auburn.
11-07-2019 02:51 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 32,538
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 818
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #52
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 02:44 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 02:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 01:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 12:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 12:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Since 17 out of 20 CFP teams have been P5 conference champions, it does seem to be the case that the CFP committee cares about conference championship games.

They care, but it isn't a must. LSU this year would present a very interesting test case.

Yes, because the one common thread in the three cases where the non-champ got in, got in over a P5 champ who had more losses. Ohio State with one loss got in over Penn State with two losses, Alabama with one loss got in over Ohio State with two losses, and undefeated Notre Dame got in over P5 champs with losses.

If LSU has one loss, they might be going up against a Big 12 or PAC champ with also just one loss, and history doesn't favor them then.

Guess the only comparable time was Ohio St back in 2015 I guess- didn't make it while Oklahoma did.....

I think the one thing that would help LSU is if the P12 champ is Oregon. The Auburn comp really hurts Oregon there IMO....

Last second loss, neutral site, first game of the season. CFP committee needs to encourage MORE of these types of matchups instead of penalizing teams that put themselves out there.

Oregon could have played New Mexico State instead and be undefeated.

True that, but still, a loss is a loss.

I think in this situation Oregon likely gets in over LSU, but circumstances will matter. E.g., if Utah loses again before the CCG, that would diminish Oregon beating them, helping LSU.

Likewise, how LSU loses will matter greatly. Lose to Bama 30-0 and their chances will be nil. Lose in over time or on a last second field goal, and LSU is in much stronger position.

Also, the politics greatly would favor Oregon. Two SEC teams again vs no PAC teams the last two years. To me, the CFP wants to get PAC and B1G teams in.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2019 02:58 PM by quo vadis.)
11-07-2019 02:56 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bullet Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 36,533
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 1136
I Root For: Texas, UK, UGA
Location:
Post: #53
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 02:36 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  
Quote:As I see it, Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota, LSU, Alabama, Clemson, and Baylor are all in “win and in” scenarios.

I can't see an undefeated P5 not making it to the Top 4 due to it = "playoff". Regardless of schedule.

Unless of course the committee ranking them want to press the NCAA to push for an 8-team playoff.

If you get 2 undefeated G5s where only 1 makes a NY Bowl, or 1 undefeated P5 not making the 4-team playoff bowls -- an 8-team playoff will come real quick.

Butt, we can hope NOBODY's UNDEFEATED, except for Minnesota for some controversy!

- Minnesota 13-0 [wins B1G in OT due to Ohio St QB mild injury before game + OSU RB suspended for 1 game due to last reg season game]
- Georgia 12-1 [wins SEC]
- Utah 12-1 [wins P12]
- Baylor 12-1 [wins B12]
- Clemson 12-1 [loses ACC]
- Alabama 12-1 [loses SEC]
- Ohio State 12-1 [loses B1G]

Do ya pick? Georgia would be the only sure-pick no-matter-what. Would Minnesota? Probably?

Georgia and Minnesota would be 100% locks. It would be close between Baylor, Utah and Alabama and Ohio St. Don't think there is any chance Baylor and Utah would both be left out. Clemson would definitely be out as, unlike Alabama and Ohio St., they didn't lose to a playoff team.
11-07-2019 02:57 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
SoCalBobcat78 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,750
Joined: Jan 2014
Reputation: 63
I Root For: TXST, UCLA, CBU
Location:
Post: #54
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 10:50 AM)stever20 Wrote:  while yes we haven't had a 1 loss non champion get in over a 1 loss champion- I don't think it's a reach to say that it's coming.....

It's definitely no lock for Oklahoma or Oregon(especially since they lost to Auburn while LSU beat them) or Utah. Those 3 teams are definitely rooting for LSU to win in a blowout(don't want a close game because the injury thing with Tua comes into play if Alabama goes 11-1 with a close loss to LSU).

I agree. It is no lock in the scenario where LSU is 11-1 and OU and Oregon are 12-1 and conference champions. In this scenario, two teams are going to be very unhappy. All three teams are deserving. I think the conference champions have a slight advantage but who knows how the committee will decide.
11-07-2019 03:30 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Online
Legend
*

Posts: 36,081
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 364
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #55
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 03:30 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 10:50 AM)stever20 Wrote:  while yes we haven't had a 1 loss non champion get in over a 1 loss champion- I don't think it's a reach to say that it's coming.....

It's definitely no lock for Oklahoma or Oregon(especially since they lost to Auburn while LSU beat them) or Utah. Those 3 teams are definitely rooting for LSU to win in a blowout(don't want a close game because the injury thing with Tua comes into play if Alabama goes 11-1 with a close loss to LSU).

I agree. It is no lock in the scenario where LSU is 11-1 and OU and Oregon are 12-1 and conference champions. In this scenario, two teams are going to be very unhappy. All three teams are deserving. I think the conference champions have a slight advantage but who knows how the committee will decide.

If Oklahoma lost again, I think they would be out obviously- and make it much easier- if it's LSU/Oregon- I think it's hard NOT to take LSU.

I think it's also important to remember the charge isn't most deserving, but rather best team.
11-07-2019 03:46 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
SoCalBobcat78 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,750
Joined: Jan 2014
Reputation: 63
I Root For: TXST, UCLA, CBU
Location:
Post: #56
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 03:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 03:30 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 10:50 AM)stever20 Wrote:  while yes we haven't had a 1 loss non champion get in over a 1 loss champion- I don't think it's a reach to say that it's coming.....

It's definitely no lock for Oklahoma or Oregon(especially since they lost to Auburn while LSU beat them) or Utah. Those 3 teams are definitely rooting for LSU to win in a blowout(don't want a close game because the injury thing with Tua comes into play if Alabama goes 11-1 with a close loss to LSU).

I agree. It is no lock in the scenario where LSU is 11-1 and OU and Oregon are 12-1 and conference champions. In this scenario, two teams are going to be very unhappy. All three teams are deserving. I think the conference champions have a slight advantage but who knows how the committee will decide.

If Oklahoma lost again, I think they would be out obviously- and make it much easier- if it's LSU/Oregon- I think it's hard NOT to take LSU.

I think it's also important to remember the charge isn't most deserving, but rather best team.

The committee had Oregon higher ranked than Oklahoma. So an Oklahoma loss is really meaningless. A one loss conference champion, with 12 straight wins, is not going to be easy to pass up.

So how do you know that LSU is the better team than Oregon? The committee is not looking at which school has more potential NFL talent. But Oregon does have one of the top offensive lines in the country and they have a first round pick at quarterback. There is plenty of talent on their roster.

The current playoff system is not perfect and it does penalize schools that don't win their conference. So if LSU does not win their conference, then they have to hope that the committee just thinks they are better than two one-loss conference champions. Recent history would not be on LSU's side.
11-07-2019 06:24 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 32,538
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 818
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #57
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 06:24 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 03:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 03:30 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 10:50 AM)stever20 Wrote:  while yes we haven't had a 1 loss non champion get in over a 1 loss champion- I don't think it's a reach to say that it's coming.....

It's definitely no lock for Oklahoma or Oregon(especially since they lost to Auburn while LSU beat them) or Utah. Those 3 teams are definitely rooting for LSU to win in a blowout(don't want a close game because the injury thing with Tua comes into play if Alabama goes 11-1 with a close loss to LSU).

I agree. It is no lock in the scenario where LSU is 11-1 and OU and Oregon are 12-1 and conference champions. In this scenario, two teams are going to be very unhappy. All three teams are deserving. I think the conference champions have a slight advantage but who knows how the committee will decide.

If Oklahoma lost again, I think they would be out obviously- and make it much easier- if it's LSU/Oregon- I think it's hard NOT to take LSU.

I think it's also important to remember the charge isn't most deserving, but rather best team.

The committee had Oregon higher ranked than Oklahoma. So an Oklahoma loss is really meaningless. A one loss conference champion, with 12 straight wins, is not going to be easy to pass up.

So how do you know that LSU is the better team than Oregon? The committee is not looking at which school has more potential NFL talent. But Oregon does have one of the top offensive lines in the country and they have a first round pick at quarterback. There is plenty of talent on their roster.

The current playoff system is not perfect and it does penalize schools that don't win their conference. So if LSU does not win their conference, then they have to hope that the committee just thinks they are better than two one-loss conference champions. Recent history would not be on LSU's side.

If LSU loses to Alabama, and Alabama goes on and wins the SEC while LSU then wins out, and meanwhile Oregon wins out, such that it boils down to those two, I suspect Oregon will get the bid over LSU.

LSU would have one thing going for it: They will have the technically stronger results. They will have the same number of losses, but LSU will have the better loss and more good wins. And LSU will have the win over the common opponent, Auburn, that Oregon lost to. Overall, top to bottom, LSU will just have had a better season.

But the intangibles will favor Oregon, namely that Oregon will be a P5 champ and LSU will not, and also politically, the committee will IMO be loathe to leave the PAC out for the third straight year while doubling up on the SEC again. I do think that politics plays a role in these decisions, and the positioning of both the B1G and PAC teams seems to signal that the committee will try their best to get them in this year, if at all possible.

If that happens, LSU will be furious, because this LSU team will clearly be more deserving than Alabama was two years ago when they didn't go to the SEC title game but made the playoffs, but circumstances that year conspired in Bama's favor.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2019 07:20 PM by quo vadis.)
11-07-2019 07:18 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
dbackjon Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,818
Joined: May 2010
Reputation: 224
I Root For: NAU/Illini
Location:
Post: #58
RE: My playoff break down
(11-07-2019 07:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 06:24 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 03:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 03:30 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-07-2019 10:50 AM)stever20 Wrote:  while yes we haven't had a 1 loss non champion get in over a 1 loss champion- I don't think it's a reach to say that it's coming.....

It's definitely no lock for Oklahoma or Oregon(especially since they lost to Auburn while LSU beat them) or Utah. Those 3 teams are definitely rooting for LSU to win in a blowout(don't want a close game because the injury thing with Tua comes into play if Alabama goes 11-1 with a close loss to LSU).

I agree. It is no lock in the scenario where LSU is 11-1 and OU and Oregon are 12-1 and conference champions. In this scenario, two teams are going to be very unhappy. All three teams are deserving. I think the conference champions have a slight advantage but who knows how the committee will decide.

If Oklahoma lost again, I think they would be out obviously- and make it much easier- if it's LSU/Oregon- I think it's hard NOT to take LSU.

I think it's also important to remember the charge isn't most deserving, but rather best team.

The committee had Oregon higher ranked than Oklahoma. So an Oklahoma loss is really meaningless. A one loss conference champion, with 12 straight wins, is not going to be easy to pass up.

So how do you know that LSU is the better team than Oregon? The committee is not looking at which school has more potential NFL talent. But Oregon does have one of the top offensive lines in the country and they have a first round pick at quarterback. There is plenty of talent on their roster.

The current playoff system is not perfect and it does penalize schools that don't win their conference. So if LSU does not win their conference, then they have to hope that the committee just thinks they are better than two one-loss conference champions. Recent history would not be on LSU's side.

If LSU loses to Alabama, and Alabama goes on and wins the SEC while LSU then wins out, and meanwhile Oregon wins out, such that it boils down to those two, I suspect Oregon will get the bid over LSU.

LSU would have one thing going for it: They will have the technically stronger results. They will have the same number of losses, but LSU will have the better loss and more good wins. And LSU will have the win over the common opponent, Auburn, that Oregon lost to. Overall, top to bottom, LSU will just have had a better season.

But the intangibles will favor Oregon, namely that Oregon will be a P5 champ and LSU will not, and also politically, the committee will IMO be loathe to leave the PAC out for the third straight year while doubling up on the SEC again. I do think that politics plays a role in these decisions, and the positioning of both the B1G and PAC teams seems to signal that the committee will try their best to get them in this year, if at all possible.

If that happens, LSU will be furious, because this LSU team will clearly be more deserving than Alabama was two years ago when they didn't go to the SEC title game but made the playoffs, but circumstances that year conspired in Bama's favor.

Hopefully Alabama loses to both LSU and Auburn 03-wink
11-07-2019 07:22 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
RUScarlets Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,956
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 21
I Root For: Rutgers
Location:
Post: #59
RE: My playoff break down
Oregon or LSU 11-1 would be a tough pick so it will come down to style points: time of possession, strength of victory, yards allowed/given. All valid especially with the common opponent.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2019 08:41 PM by RUScarlets.)
11-07-2019 08:40 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
esayem Offline
Hark The Sound!
*

Posts: 5,833
Joined: Feb 2007
Reputation: 194
I Root For: The Heels
Location: Tobacco Road
Post: #60
RE: My playoff break down
I don’t know how anybody can believe this is a bad football season. I guess if your team stinks you would be disappointed, but as a general fan this is the closest playoff race we’ve had due to the sheer amount of possibilities.

I’m hoping for chaos and we can get this playoff expanded to 8 and eventually an NCAA sponsored 12 team playoff.

With 12, the MAC, Sun Belt, and C-USA will mostly be in those first two games with either an at-large, MWC, or AAC team, but at least all the conferences will have equal representation. Cut it down to an 11 game season with an exhibition game in August. Opening round and Elite 8 on campus. The rest remains the same.

BRING ON THE CHAOS
11-07-2019 10:27 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2019 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2019 MyBB Group.