(11-06-2019 05:48 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote: (11-06-2019 05:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (11-05-2019 01:52 PM)bullet Wrote: If you assume unbeaten Clemson, unbeaten Ohio St. and the SEC champ are in, then you get Oklahoma in the threesome vs. a non-champ. I think they get in regardless of who the non-champ is. To leave out a non-champ, they would have to put the Big 10 or SEC 1 loss runnerup in the top 3 and compare Oklahoma to say an unbeaten Clemson.
Forgetting about the loser of LSU/Alabama for a moment, the last spot could boil down to a one-loss Big 12 or PAC champ.
In that case, I slightly like the PAC champ's chances. I think the rankings from last night are a signal that the committee is smiling on the PAC.
Strange, because all of the computers say the Big 12 has been the best conference this year.
Here is another way of looking at it. At the end of the regular season, Alabama has one loss, as does Oregon and OU. All three are 11-1. I would pick Alabama. But, if Oregon beats a top ten Utah and OU beats a top 15 Kansas State in their championships games, then I think they have the edge. OU would have avenged their loss to KSU. The committee has favored schools that win their conference championship game.
From there, it is a toss-up between Oregon and OU. I think Oregon gets in with 12 consecutive wins and being undefeated in conference play, the first time that has happened in the Pac-12 since 2010. With their only loss to Auburn in the last ten seconds of the game, it feels like they would get it over OU. But it is tight.
Good analysis, so let me expand on it by looking at different scenarios where Alabama finishes with a loss:
a) 11-1, do not advance to the SEC title game.
b) 12-1, they lose a regular season game but win the SEC title game.
c) 12-1, they do not lose a regular season game but lose the SEC title game.
I think we agree that in situation (a) Alabama misses the playoffs. Because to go 11-1 and not win the West means they lost to LSU, and they just wouldn't have enough good wins to overcome a PAC champ Oregon or Big 12 champ Oklahoma. Their only good win would be over Auburn, not enough.
On the other hand, I think we probably agree that in situation (b), Alabama makes the playoffs. Because even though they say lost to Auburn, that means they would have beaten LSU (they have to in order to win the SEC West), and another highly-ranked team in the SEC title game, and let's face it, the SEC champ isn't being left out of the playoffs.
Situation © is tricky. Because this means that Alabama beats LSU, and also Auburn. That's two very good wins down the stretch. Assuming they lose to Georgia in the SEC title game, do they make the playoffs over a PAC champ Oregon or Big 12 champ OU? I like their chances, unless Georgia blows them out. For one thing, they will have beaten Auburn, who Oregon lost to. Assuming a tight game with Georgia, this scenario likely puts two SEC teams in the playoffs. If Georgia wins 30-0, then Alabama is likely out.
So the upshot to all of this for me is this: Alabama CANNOT lose to LSU and expect to make the playoffs. Both scenarios that put them in the playoffs, b & c, rely on them beating LSU. That's because beating LSU gives them a huge win over a top team, and even more important, assures that they win the SEC West and play for the SEC title. In contrast, if they lose to LSU, no SEC title game, and not enough of a resume to make it to the playoffs without a conference title to their credit.
LSU, on the other hand, can survive a loss to Alabama and still have a decent chance to make the playoffs even if they don't play in the SEC title game, because of their quality earlier wins. Losing to Alabama will surely damage their playoff chances badly, but not necessarily fatally, unless they are blown out (nobody in contention can afford to get blown out).
For Alabama, a loss would be fatal. Saban knows this, so I expect Bama to win this weekend.