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My playoff break down
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #21
RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 12:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:33 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 10:39 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It'd be easy for the committee if we had 4 undefeated conference champions. They would have a very legitimate and defendable reason they chose the four teams.

B1G: Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota
SEC: LSU, Alabama
ACC: Clemson
XII: Baylor

The PAC seems to have found themselves in a terrible position making the playoffs in only years 1 and 3 out of 5 and year 6 looking from the outside in. Something will have to be done if they care enough.

Oregon would be in the playoff picture if they win their last three regular season games (Arizona, at ASU, Oregon State) and win the Pac-12 Championship game. They would end up 12-1, with 12 straight wins and be the first Pac-12 school to go through the conference undefeated since 2010. Their lone loss would be to Auburn in the last nine seconds in Arlington. A game they had and choked away.
Oregon doesn't get in over

13-0 Ohio St
13-0 Clemson
13-0 Alabama/LSU or 12-1 Georgia
11-1 Alabama/LSU(who beat Auburn)

If Oklahoma and Oregon/Utah are sitting at 12-1 and both get left out for a second SEC or B1G team, that might be the straw that breaks the 4-team CFP playoff back.
11-05-2019 01:08 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #22
RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 01:08 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:33 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 10:39 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It'd be easy for the committee if we had 4 undefeated conference champions. They would have a very legitimate and defendable reason they chose the four teams.

B1G: Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota
SEC: LSU, Alabama
ACC: Clemson
XII: Baylor

The PAC seems to have found themselves in a terrible position making the playoffs in only years 1 and 3 out of 5 and year 6 looking from the outside in. Something will have to be done if they care enough.

Oregon would be in the playoff picture if they win their last three regular season games (Arizona, at ASU, Oregon State) and win the Pac-12 Championship game. They would end up 12-1, with 12 straight wins and be the first Pac-12 school to go through the conference undefeated since 2010. Their lone loss would be to Auburn in the last nine seconds in Arlington. A game they had and choked away.
Oregon doesn't get in over

13-0 Ohio St
13-0 Clemson
13-0 Alabama/LSU or 12-1 Georgia
11-1 Alabama/LSU(who beat Auburn)

If Oklahoma and Oregon/Utah are sitting at 12-1 and both get left out for a second SEC or B1G team, that might be the straw that breaks the 4-team CFP playoff back.

maybe, but it didn't a few years ago.....
11-05-2019 01:10 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 12:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:33 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 10:39 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It'd be easy for the committee if we had 4 undefeated conference champions. They would have a very legitimate and defendable reason they chose the four teams.

B1G: Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota
SEC: LSU, Alabama
ACC: Clemson
XII: Baylor

The PAC seems to have found themselves in a terrible position making the playoffs in only years 1 and 3 out of 5 and year 6 looking from the outside in. Something will have to be done if they care enough.

Oregon would be in the playoff picture if they win their last three regular season games (Arizona, at ASU, Oregon State) and win the Pac-12 Championship game. They would end up 12-1, with 12 straight wins and be the first Pac-12 school to go through the conference undefeated since 2010. Their lone loss would be to Auburn in the last nine seconds in Arlington. A game they had and choked away.
Oregon doesn't get in over

13-0 Ohio St
13-0 Clemson
13-0 Alabama/LSU or 12-1 Georgia
11-1 Alabama/LSU(who beat Auburn)

I agree, Oregon is not getting in over a 13-0 Ohio State, a 13-0 Clemson and a 13-0 Alabama/LSU. They would be fighting it out for the 4th spot and they would need help. There are plenty of games to be played and all of these undefeated schools could lose.
11-05-2019 01:22 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #24
RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 01:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 01:08 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:33 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 10:39 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It'd be easy for the committee if we had 4 undefeated conference champions. They would have a very legitimate and defendable reason they chose the four teams.

B1G: Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota
SEC: LSU, Alabama
ACC: Clemson
XII: Baylor

The PAC seems to have found themselves in a terrible position making the playoffs in only years 1 and 3 out of 5 and year 6 looking from the outside in. Something will have to be done if they care enough.

Oregon would be in the playoff picture if they win their last three regular season games (Arizona, at ASU, Oregon State) and win the Pac-12 Championship game. They would end up 12-1, with 12 straight wins and be the first Pac-12 school to go through the conference undefeated since 2010. Their lone loss would be to Auburn in the last nine seconds in Arlington. A game they had and choked away.
Oregon doesn't get in over

13-0 Ohio St
13-0 Clemson
13-0 Alabama/LSU or 12-1 Georgia
11-1 Alabama/LSU(who beat Auburn)

If Oklahoma and Oregon/Utah are sitting at 12-1 and both get left out for a second SEC or B1G team, that might be the straw that breaks the 4-team CFP playoff back.

maybe, but it didn't a few years ago.....

The champions left out were 2 loss Ohio State and three loss USC. Not the same situation as two one-loss teams being left out.
11-05-2019 01:24 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #25
RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 01:24 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 01:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 01:08 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:33 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  Oregon would be in the playoff picture if they win their last three regular season games (Arizona, at ASU, Oregon State) and win the Pac-12 Championship game. They would end up 12-1, with 12 straight wins and be the first Pac-12 school to go through the conference undefeated since 2010. Their lone loss would be to Auburn in the last nine seconds in Arlington. A game they had and choked away.
Oregon doesn't get in over

13-0 Ohio St
13-0 Clemson
13-0 Alabama/LSU or 12-1 Georgia
11-1 Alabama/LSU(who beat Auburn)

If Oklahoma and Oregon/Utah are sitting at 12-1 and both get left out for a second SEC or B1G team, that might be the straw that breaks the 4-team CFP playoff back.

maybe, but it didn't a few years ago.....

The champions left out were 2 loss Ohio State and three loss USC. Not the same situation as two one-loss teams being left out.

Penn St got left out for Ohio St.
11-05-2019 01:27 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 01:08 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:33 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 10:39 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It'd be easy for the committee if we had 4 undefeated conference champions. They would have a very legitimate and defendable reason they chose the four teams.

B1G: Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota
SEC: LSU, Alabama
ACC: Clemson
XII: Baylor

The PAC seems to have found themselves in a terrible position making the playoffs in only years 1 and 3 out of 5 and year 6 looking from the outside in. Something will have to be done if they care enough.

Oregon would be in the playoff picture if they win their last three regular season games (Arizona, at ASU, Oregon State) and win the Pac-12 Championship game. They would end up 12-1, with 12 straight wins and be the first Pac-12 school to go through the conference undefeated since 2010. Their lone loss would be to Auburn in the last nine seconds in Arlington. A game they had and choked away.
Oregon doesn't get in over

13-0 Ohio St
13-0 Clemson
13-0 Alabama/LSU or 12-1 Georgia
11-1 Alabama/LSU(who beat Auburn)

If Oklahoma and Oregon/Utah are sitting at 12-1 and both get left out for a second SEC or B1G team, that might be the straw that breaks the 4-team CFP playoff back.

I agree. If an 11-1 LSU gets in over a 12-1 OU and a 12-1 Oregon, then they really need to look at playoff expansion. I like LSU, but they would have gotten in over conference champions OU and Oregon based on committee preference. All three team have potential first round draft picks at quarterback. All three teams are loaded with talent. An expanded playoff would give the country a chance to see all of them in the playoffs.
11-05-2019 01:34 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #27
RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 01:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 01:24 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 01:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 01:08 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Oregon doesn't get in over

13-0 Ohio St
13-0 Clemson
13-0 Alabama/LSU or 12-1 Georgia
11-1 Alabama/LSU(who beat Auburn)

If Oklahoma and Oregon/Utah are sitting at 12-1 and both get left out for a second SEC or B1G team, that might be the straw that breaks the 4-team CFP playoff back.

maybe, but it didn't a few years ago.....

The champions left out were 2 loss Ohio State and three loss USC. Not the same situation as two one-loss teams being left out.

Penn St got left out for Ohio St.

Not in the year that the SEC had two representatives - 2017-18

that is the only year in the CFP where two teams from one conference were in the CFP
11-05-2019 01:35 PM
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Post: #28
RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 01:08 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:33 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 10:39 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It'd be easy for the committee if we had 4 undefeated conference champions. They would have a very legitimate and defendable reason they chose the four teams.

B1G: Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota
SEC: LSU, Alabama
ACC: Clemson
XII: Baylor

The PAC seems to have found themselves in a terrible position making the playoffs in only years 1 and 3 out of 5 and year 6 looking from the outside in. Something will have to be done if they care enough.

Oregon would be in the playoff picture if they win their last three regular season games (Arizona, at ASU, Oregon State) and win the Pac-12 Championship game. They would end up 12-1, with 12 straight wins and be the first Pac-12 school to go through the conference undefeated since 2010. Their lone loss would be to Auburn in the last nine seconds in Arlington. A game they had and choked away.
Oregon doesn't get in over

13-0 Ohio St
13-0 Clemson
13-0 Alabama/LSU or 12-1 Georgia
11-1 Alabama/LSU(who beat Auburn)

If Oklahoma and Oregon/Utah are sitting at 12-1 and both get left out for a second SEC or B1G team, that might be the straw that breaks the 4-team CFP playoff back.

I think Oklahoma wins out and they are in.

I disagree with your assessment though. It needs to be a Big 10 or SEC team left out that breaks the CFP. Those two conferences have the power.
11-05-2019 01:48 PM
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Post: #29
RE: My playoff break down
If you assume unbeaten Clemson, unbeaten Ohio St. and the SEC champ are in, then you get Oklahoma in the threesome vs. a non-champ. I think they get in regardless of who the non-champ is. To leave out a non-champ, they would have to put the Big 10 or SEC 1 loss runnerup in the top 3 and compare Oklahoma to say an unbeaten Clemson.
11-05-2019 01:52 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #30
RE: My playoff break down
This site uses a strength of record. Essentially it says the 4 will be OSU, PSU, Clemson, and the Alabama/LSU winner. Obviously politics plays a diminished role in a computer algorithm; 2 teams from 1 conference is not a consideration.

Guaranteed: P3 Undefeateds (sorry Clemson) and 1-loss OSU/PSU champs

Near Guaranteed:
99% 12-1 OSU/PSU (lose CCG)
98% 13-0 Clemson
98% 12-1 LSU
97% 11-1 OSU/PSU

Hopeful:
85% 12-1 LSU (lose CCG)
81% 12-1 Georgia
80% 12-1 Alabama
77% 12-1 Minnesota
68% 12-1 Minnesota (lose CCG)
40% 12-1 Oklahoma
36% 12-1 Baylor
35% 11-1 LSU

Need lots-o-help:
32% 12-1 Alabama (lose CCG)
32% 10-2 Wisconsin
21% 12-1 Cincy
21% 10-2 Michigan
17% 12-1 Baylor (lose CCG)
15% 11-2 Iowa
15% 11-1 Alabama
8% 12-1 Oregon
8% 10-2 Auburn
6% 10-2 Florida

SUMMARY: 7 results are more likely than not going to lead to playoff spots (with a miniscule chance more than 4 happen)
1. 1-loss or better OSU
2. 1-loss or better PSU
3. 1-loss or better Minnesota
4. 1-loss or better SEC champ
5. LSU only loses SECCG
6. undefeated Baylor
7. undefeated Clemson

Next you get a 1-loss Big 12 champ and after that it is pretty scattered.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2019 03:53 PM by Crayton.)
11-05-2019 02:18 PM
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1845 Bear Offline
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Post: #31
My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 09:04 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  As I see it, Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota, LSU, Alabama, Clemson, and Baylor are all in “win and in” scenarios. It would be very difficult to deny a playoff berth to one of these schools in they are undefeated and conference champs.

Georgia is similarly in a win and in scenario. Hard to see a 1 loss SEC champ left out.

Oregon, Utah, and Oklahoma all need to win out and get help by having teams above them lose.

Who can’t afford a loss:
Oregon
Utah
Oklahoma
Georgia
Clemson
Baylor

Clemson gets lumped in here due to the overall weakness of the ACC. A 1 loss non-champ, particularly if they are LSU, Alabama, Ohio St, or Penn St, definitely gets in over them due to SOS.

Baylor is in here too because the human and computer elements are both down on them and they lack the name brand appeal of some of the others in the hunt. Splitting two games with Oklahoma does not imbue a lot of confidence in the Bears.

The other 5 can still sneak into the playoff with a loss right now but it will be far trickier than if undefeated.

There you have it—the 2019 CFP race is down to 11 teams.


I’d make a couple changes:

1- Minnesota is in the can’t afford a loss scenario as much as Bu is. Negligible non-con and backloaded schedule.

2- As defending champs Clemson can afford a close loss. They’d win a beauty pageant against all in the can’t afford a loss group except maybe OU or UGA.

3- OU and UGA winning out likely gets in with brand bias and are likely the top two “cant afford a loss team” in any head to head beauty pageant between that remaining group. OU would have either avenged the KSU loss beating all they played or gone 2-0 against BU, UT, or ISU in addition to beating UCLA in noncon and winning the rest of their games against a deep Big 12. UGA would have won the SEC with a victory over LSU or Bama.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2019 03:30 PM by 1845 Bear.)
11-05-2019 03:30 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #32
RE: My playoff break down
We need the Big Ten champ to have one loss and miss the playoffs. Then maybe we’ll get the 8 team playoff we all deserve!!!
11-05-2019 03:37 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #33
RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 03:30 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 09:04 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  As I see it, Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota, LSU, Alabama, Clemson, and Baylor are all in “win and in” scenarios. It would be very difficult to deny a playoff berth to one of these schools in they are undefeated and conference champs.

Georgia is similarly in a win and in scenario. Hard to see a 1 loss SEC champ left out.

Oregon, Utah, and Oklahoma all need to win out and get help by having teams above them lose.

Who can’t afford a loss:
Oregon
Utah
Oklahoma
Georgia
Clemson
Baylor

Clemson gets lumped in here due to the overall weakness of the ACC. A 1 loss non-champ, particularly if they are LSU, Alabama, Ohio St, or Penn St, definitely gets in over them due to SOS.

Baylor is in here too because the human and computer elements are both down on them and they lack the name brand appeal of some of the others in the hunt. Splitting two games with Oklahoma does not imbue a lot of confidence in the Bears.

The other 5 can still sneak into the playoff with a loss right now but it will be far trickier than if undefeated.

There you have it—the 2019 CFP race is down to 11 teams.


I’d make a couple changes:

1- Minnesota is in the can’t afford a loss scenario as much as Bu is. Negligible non-con and backloaded schedule.

2- As defending champs Clemson can afford a close loss. They’d win a beauty pageant against all in the can’t afford a loss group except maybe OU or UGA.

3- OU and UGA winning out likely gets in with brand bias and are likely the top two “cant afford a loss team” in any head to head beauty pageant between that remaining group. OU would have either avenged the KSU loss beating all they played or gone 2-0 against BU, UT, or ISU in addition to beating UCLA in noncon and winning the rest of their games against a deep Big 12. UGA would have won the SEC with a victory over LSU or Bama.

I totally disagree with you with Clemson. For one- if the loss is to Wake Forest- WF would win the division and Clemson would be a 11-1 non champion. nope. The ACC is so bad that Clemson can't afford it.
11-05-2019 04:29 PM
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Post: #34
RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 01:34 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 01:08 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 12:33 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 10:39 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It'd be easy for the committee if we had 4 undefeated conference champions. They would have a very legitimate and defendable reason they chose the four teams.

B1G: Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota
SEC: LSU, Alabama
ACC: Clemson
XII: Baylor

The PAC seems to have found themselves in a terrible position making the playoffs in only years 1 and 3 out of 5 and year 6 looking from the outside in. Something will have to be done if they care enough.

Oregon would be in the playoff picture if they win their last three regular season games (Arizona, at ASU, Oregon State) and win the Pac-12 Championship game. They would end up 12-1, with 12 straight wins and be the first Pac-12 school to go through the conference undefeated since 2010. Their lone loss would be to Auburn in the last nine seconds in Arlington. A game they had and choked away.
Oregon doesn't get in over

13-0 Ohio St
13-0 Clemson
13-0 Alabama/LSU or 12-1 Georgia
11-1 Alabama/LSU(who beat Auburn)

If Oklahoma and Oregon/Utah are sitting at 12-1 and both get left out for a second SEC or B1G team, that might be the straw that breaks the 4-team CFP playoff back.

I agree. If an 11-1 LSU gets in over a 12-1 OU and a 12-1 Oregon, then they really need to look at playoff expansion. I like LSU, but they would have gotten in over conference champions OU and Oregon based on committee preference. All three team have potential first round draft picks at quarterback. All three teams are loaded with talent. An expanded playoff would give the country a chance to see all of them in the playoffs.

And that’s why you have bowl games outside the playoff... seriously, unless QBs that are top pro prospects rest for the non playoff bowls, there is no problem with the scenario you have laid out.
11-05-2019 09:24 PM
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1845 Bear Offline
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Post: #35
My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 04:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 03:30 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 09:04 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  As I see it, Ohio St, Penn St, Minnesota, LSU, Alabama, Clemson, and Baylor are all in “win and in” scenarios. It would be very difficult to deny a playoff berth to one of these schools in they are undefeated and conference champs.

Georgia is similarly in a win and in scenario. Hard to see a 1 loss SEC champ left out.

Oregon, Utah, and Oklahoma all need to win out and get help by having teams above them lose.

Who can’t afford a loss:
Oregon
Utah
Oklahoma
Georgia
Clemson
Baylor

Clemson gets lumped in here due to the overall weakness of the ACC. A 1 loss non-champ, particularly if they are LSU, Alabama, Ohio St, or Penn St, definitely gets in over them due to SOS.

Baylor is in here too because the human and computer elements are both down on them and they lack the name brand appeal of some of the others in the hunt. Splitting two games with Oklahoma does not imbue a lot of confidence in the Bears.

The other 5 can still sneak into the playoff with a loss right now but it will be far trickier than if undefeated.

There you have it—the 2019 CFP race is down to 11 teams.


I’d make a couple changes:

1- Minnesota is in the can’t afford a loss scenario as much as Bu is. Negligible non-con and backloaded schedule.

2- As defending champs Clemson can afford a close loss. They’d win a beauty pageant against all in the can’t afford a loss group except maybe OU or UGA.

3- OU and UGA winning out likely gets in with brand bias and are likely the top two “cant afford a loss team” in any head to head beauty pageant between that remaining group. OU would have either avenged the KSU loss beating all they played or gone 2-0 against BU, UT, or ISU in addition to beating UCLA in noncon and winning the rest of their games against a deep Big 12. UGA would have won the SEC with a victory over LSU or Bama.

I totally disagree with you with Clemson. For one- if the loss is to Wake Forest- WF would win the division and Clemson would be a 11-1 non champion. nope. The ACC is so bad that Clemson can't afford it.


1- If Wake had another loss Clemson has a shot again. Wake isn’t so good they wouldn’t be at risk of upset.

2- If all their remaining games Wake would probably be the most damaging to lose as it prevents a division or league title
11-06-2019 03:35 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #36
RE: My playoff break down
Wake's best shot to lose is this Saturday @ Va Tech. other than that it's Duke, and @ Syracuse.

And sorry, but Clemson at 12-1 and ACC champs isn't beating SEC champs, Big Ten Champs, Pac 12 champs(especially if title game is Oregon/Utah- winner of that game by far has the better win), and frankly if it's LSU at 11-1, LSU gets Clemson big time. Way more top wins.

Clemson's only safe route is going 13-0.
11-06-2019 04:03 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #37
RE: My playoff break down
(11-05-2019 01:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  If you assume unbeaten Clemson, unbeaten Ohio St. and the SEC champ are in, then you get Oklahoma in the threesome vs. a non-champ. I think they get in regardless of who the non-champ is. To leave out a non-champ, they would have to put the Big 10 or SEC 1 loss runnerup in the top 3 and compare Oklahoma to say an unbeaten Clemson.

Forgetting about the loser of LSU/Alabama for a moment, the last spot could boil down to a one-loss Big 12 or PAC champ.

In that case, I slightly like the PAC champ's chances. I think the rankings from last night are a signal that the committee is smiling on the PAC.

Strange, because all of the computers say the Big 12 has been the best conference this year.
11-06-2019 05:23 PM
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Post: #38
RE: My playoff break down
(11-06-2019 05:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 01:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  If you assume unbeaten Clemson, unbeaten Ohio St. and the SEC champ are in, then you get Oklahoma in the threesome vs. a non-champ. I think they get in regardless of who the non-champ is. To leave out a non-champ, they would have to put the Big 10 or SEC 1 loss runnerup in the top 3 and compare Oklahoma to say an unbeaten Clemson.

Forgetting about the loser of LSU/Alabama for a moment, the last spot could boil down to a one-loss Big 12 or PAC champ.

In that case, I slightly like the PAC champ's chances. I think the rankings from last night are a signal that the committee is smiling on the PAC.

Strange, because all of the computers say the Big 12 has been the best conference this year.

Here is another way of looking at it. At the end of the regular season, Alabama has one loss, as does Oregon and OU. All three are 11-1. I would pick Alabama. But, if Oregon beats a top ten Utah and OU beats a top 15 Kansas State in their championships games, then I think they have the edge. OU would have avenged their loss to KSU. The committee has favored schools that win their conference championship game.

From there, it is a toss-up between Oregon and OU. I think Oregon gets in with 12 consecutive wins and being undefeated in conference play, the first time that has happened in the Pac-12 since 2010. With their only loss to Auburn in the last ten seconds of the game, it feels like they would get it over OU. But it is tight.
11-06-2019 05:48 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #39
RE: My playoff break down
(11-06-2019 05:48 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-06-2019 05:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 01:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  If you assume unbeaten Clemson, unbeaten Ohio St. and the SEC champ are in, then you get Oklahoma in the threesome vs. a non-champ. I think they get in regardless of who the non-champ is. To leave out a non-champ, they would have to put the Big 10 or SEC 1 loss runnerup in the top 3 and compare Oklahoma to say an unbeaten Clemson.

Forgetting about the loser of LSU/Alabama for a moment, the last spot could boil down to a one-loss Big 12 or PAC champ.

In that case, I slightly like the PAC champ's chances. I think the rankings from last night are a signal that the committee is smiling on the PAC.

Strange, because all of the computers say the Big 12 has been the best conference this year.

Here is another way of looking at it. At the end of the regular season, Alabama has one loss, as does Oregon and OU. All three are 11-1. I would pick Alabama. But, if Oregon beats a top ten Utah and OU beats a top 15 Kansas State in their championships games, then I think they have the edge. OU would have avenged their loss to KSU. The committee has favored schools that win their conference championship game.

From there, it is a toss-up between Oregon and OU. I think Oregon gets in with 12 consecutive wins and being undefeated in conference play, the first time that has happened in the Pac-12 since 2010. With their only loss to Auburn in the last ten seconds of the game, it feels like they would get it over OU. But it is tight.

Good analysis, so let me expand on it by looking at different scenarios where Alabama finishes with a loss:

a) 11-1, do not advance to the SEC title game.

b) 12-1, they lose a regular season game but win the SEC title game.

c) 12-1, they do not lose a regular season game but lose the SEC title game.

I think we agree that in situation (a) Alabama misses the playoffs. Because to go 11-1 and not win the West means they lost to LSU, and they just wouldn't have enough good wins to overcome a PAC champ Oregon or Big 12 champ Oklahoma. Their only good win would be over Auburn, not enough.

On the other hand, I think we probably agree that in situation (b), Alabama makes the playoffs. Because even though they say lost to Auburn, that means they would have beaten LSU (they have to in order to win the SEC West), and another highly-ranked team in the SEC title game, and let's face it, the SEC champ isn't being left out of the playoffs.

Situation © is tricky. Because this means that Alabama beats LSU, and also Auburn. That's two very good wins down the stretch. Assuming they lose to Georgia in the SEC title game, do they make the playoffs over a PAC champ Oregon or Big 12 champ OU? I like their chances, unless Georgia blows them out. For one thing, they will have beaten Auburn, who Oregon lost to. Assuming a tight game with Georgia, this scenario likely puts two SEC teams in the playoffs. If Georgia wins 30-0, then Alabama is likely out.

So the upshot to all of this for me is this: Alabama CANNOT lose to LSU and expect to make the playoffs. Both scenarios that put them in the playoffs, b & c, rely on them beating LSU. That's because beating LSU gives them a huge win over a top team, and even more important, assures that they win the SEC West and play for the SEC title. In contrast, if they lose to LSU, no SEC title game, and not enough of a resume to make it to the playoffs without a conference title to their credit.

LSU, on the other hand, can survive a loss to Alabama and still have a decent chance to make the playoffs even if they don't play in the SEC title game, because of their quality earlier wins. Losing to Alabama will surely damage their playoff chances badly, but not necessarily fatally, unless they are blown out (nobody in contention can afford to get blown out).

For Alabama, a loss would be fatal. Saban knows this, so I expect Bama to win this weekend.
(This post was last modified: 11-06-2019 07:35 PM by quo vadis.)
11-06-2019 07:32 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #40
RE: My playoff break down
Or does the committee do an Ohio State and still pick Alabama over Georgia, even with the Title game loss? If Georgia loses to Auburn, but squeaks by Alabama in the Title Game, would a 2 loss SEC Champ go over a 1 loss PAC 12 or Big 12 Champ?
11-06-2019 09:17 PM
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