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G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
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dbackjon Online
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Post: #101
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-08-2019 05:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-08-2019 04:55 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-08-2019 03:35 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-08-2019 03:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-08-2019 03:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  rating at game time is utterly meaningless..... Florida St is not helping them out at all whatsoever. In fact, Cincy's win over UCLA may wind up being better than Boise's over FSU.

Agree that Cincy is much more likely to get the NY6 than is Boise, but he does have a point about ECU, though. Cincy was extremely lucky to beat ECU, gave up 35 first downs and 640 yards to that dreadful team, and needed very good fortune in the 4th Q to squeak by.

And Boise barely beat a bad San Jose St team....

10 points over a team with a P5 road win vs Cincy with a 3 point escape vs an awful ECU team, or Memphis that got lucky to beat a bad Tulsa, or SMU that squeaked by Tulsa, and a tanking Houston team.


All the teams in contention have had games they easily could have lost.

Cincy's loss was a blowout (yet they get SOS credit for it), the others had close losses (although to be fair, Navy/Memphis/SMU had to lose to each other.

But Boise doesn't have a single good win to their credit.... that's their problem, and there's nothing in the MWC that helps them....

They have a P5 win (can't help it that Taggart sucks), 7-2 AF, Wyoming is currently 6-2, would have San Diego State if they finish up strong.

All the AAC hangs there hat on is wins over each other.

What is the best OOC win for the AAC?

Cincy over UCLA?


AAC has 1 P5 win over a team with a winning record.

AAC got a huge SOS boost by scheduling and getting crushed by good teams (OSU, Okla, Auburn, Wisconsin, Okla State, Mich State, etc)
11-08-2019 05:51 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #102
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-08-2019 05:51 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-08-2019 05:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-08-2019 04:55 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-08-2019 03:35 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-08-2019 03:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Agree that Cincy is much more likely to get the NY6 than is Boise, but he does have a point about ECU, though. Cincy was extremely lucky to beat ECU, gave up 35 first downs and 640 yards to that dreadful team, and needed very good fortune in the 4th Q to squeak by.

And Boise barely beat a bad San Jose St team....

10 points over a team with a P5 road win vs Cincy with a 3 point escape vs an awful ECU team, or Memphis that got lucky to beat a bad Tulsa, or SMU that squeaked by Tulsa, and a tanking Houston team.


All the teams in contention have had games they easily could have lost.

Cincy's loss was a blowout (yet they get SOS credit for it), the others had close losses (although to be fair, Navy/Memphis/SMU had to lose to each other.

But Boise doesn't have a single good win to their credit.... that's their problem, and there's nothing in the MWC that helps them....

They have a P5 win (can't help it that Taggart sucks), 7-2 AF, Wyoming is currently 6-2, would have San Diego State if they finish up strong.

All the AAC hangs there hat on is wins over each other.

What is the best OOC win for the AAC?

Cincy over UCLA?


AAC has 1 P5 win over a team with a winning record.

AAC got a huge SOS boost by scheduling and getting crushed by good teams (OSU, Okla, Auburn, Wisconsin, Okla State, Mich State, etc)

well the AAC has gone 3-0 vs the MWC with wins over 2 of the 4 best teams in the league in Air Force and Wyoming.

The MWC also has exactly 1 P5 win over a team with a winning record. oops... Might want to fact check stuff with the MWC before you use something dude.

Book it. If AAC champ has 1 loss, they will be the G5 rep. Period. Not a ******* thing Boise can do about it. Not a ******* thing the MWC can do about it..... other than cry like little babies about it.
11-08-2019 06:07 PM
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dbackjon Online
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Post: #103
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
Good Lord steve you are being dense. 99% of us are agreeing that a 1-loss Memphis or SMU or Navy will be the AAC reps. Slightly less chance if it is Cincy.

But you keep insisting that a TWO-loss AAC champ is clearly superior to a 1-loss Boise. Great, that is your opinion. But don't put words into my or other posters mouths.

Stop being a little f****** b&&&& about that.
11-08-2019 06:27 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #104
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-08-2019 06:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-08-2019 05:51 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-08-2019 05:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-08-2019 04:55 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-08-2019 03:35 PM)stever20 Wrote:  And Boise barely beat a bad San Jose St team....

10 points over a team with a P5 road win vs Cincy with a 3 point escape vs an awful ECU team, or Memphis that got lucky to beat a bad Tulsa, or SMU that squeaked by Tulsa, and a tanking Houston team.


All the teams in contention have had games they easily could have lost.

Cincy's loss was a blowout (yet they get SOS credit for it), the others had close losses (although to be fair, Navy/Memphis/SMU had to lose to each other.

But Boise doesn't have a single good win to their credit.... that's their problem, and there's nothing in the MWC that helps them....

They have a P5 win (can't help it that Taggart sucks), 7-2 AF, Wyoming is currently 6-2, would have San Diego State if they finish up strong.

All the AAC hangs there hat on is wins over each other.

What is the best OOC win for the AAC?

Cincy over UCLA?


AAC has 1 P5 win over a team with a winning record.

AAC got a huge SOS boost by scheduling and getting crushed by good teams (OSU, Okla, Auburn, Wisconsin, Okla State, Mich State, etc)

well the AAC has gone 3-0 vs the MWC with wins over 2 of the 4 best teams in the league in Air Force and Wyoming.

The MWC also has exactly 1 P5 win over a team with a winning record. oops... Might want to fact check stuff with the MWC before you use something dude.

Book it. If AAC champ has 1 loss, they will be the G5 rep. Period. Not a ******* thing Boise can do about it. Not a ******* thing the MWC can do about it..... other than cry like little babies about it.

Air Force is Boise's best win and Navy has one of those, too.
You want to hype Wyoming, who lost to Tulsa, who is at the bottom of the AAC.

mwc and AAC wins vs "P5" by Massey Composite Ranking
SMU 41, @TCU 38 #40 AAC
@Wyoming 37, Missouri 31 #49 - mwc
@UCF 45, Stanford 27 #52 AAC
@Cincinnati 24, UCLA 14 #54 AAC
San Diego State 23, @UCLA 14 #54 mwc
Boise State 36, @Florida State 31 #61 mwc
@Hawaii 31, Oregon State 28 #64 mwc
@Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10 #73 AAC
@Nevada 34, Purdue 31 #80 mwc
@Hawaii 45, Arizona 38 #84 mwc
(OT) Air Force 30, @Colorado 23 #89 mwc
@Temple 20, Maryland 17 #94 AAC
@Temple 24, Georgia Tech 2 #103 AAC
UNLV 34, @Vanderbilt 10 #111 mwc
San Jose State 31, @Arkansas 24 #112 mwc

That's about even.
11-08-2019 06:36 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #105
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-08-2019 06:27 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Good Lord steve you are being dense. 99% of us are agreeing that a 1-loss Memphis or SMU or Navy will be the AAC reps. Slightly less chance if it is Cincy.

But you keep insisting that a TWO-loss AAC champ is clearly superior to a 1-loss Boise. Great, that is your opinion. But don't put words into my or other posters mouths.

Stop being a little f****** b&&&& about that.

no, there are a lot of dumb ***** on here who think that a ONE loss AAC champ can get beat by Boise.

I agree that a TWO loss AAC champ doesn't get in over a one loss Boise. BUT I could easily see a TWO loss AAC champ get in over a ONE loss San Diego State team. Really want to see who gets in next- UCF or San Diego St.
11-08-2019 08:18 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #106
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-08-2019 03:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  So why exactly would Boise pass Cincy when Cincy is ahead of them, and Cincy has a better remaining schedule than Boise, if both of them win out? That's just dumb.

Not reading posts and saying things are dumb is dumb.

I said Boise wouldn’t get in over a 1 loss AAC champ. Period. End of discussion. SMU can win out and not win their division, rendering a 1 loss SMU ineligible to get the G5 champ. Cincy and Memphis can essentially eliminate one another. Cincy also showed vulnerability against a horrible ECU team.

I also said a 2 loss AAC champ will not get in over 1 loss Boise.
(This post was last modified: 11-08-2019 09:14 PM by esayem.)
11-08-2019 09:13 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #107
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-08-2019 08:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  no, there are a lot of dumb ***** on here who think that a ONE loss AAC champ can get beat by Boise.

Really? I haven't seen anyone say that.

07-coffee3
11-08-2019 09:42 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #108
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
I'll say it: a 2-loss AAC champ deserves to get in over Boise.

Boise's loss is to a worse team (4-4 BYU) than any Cincinnati (Ohio State), SMU (Memphis), Navy (Memphis), or Memphis (6-3 Temple). Both of UCF's losses (Cincinnati and 6-3 Pitt) are to better teams than BYU.

All 5 potential AAC champs have better wins than Boise's best win. A second loss to a ranked opponent shouldn't drop them below Boise.
11-08-2019 10:08 PM
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dbackjon Online
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Post: #109
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
Well strike UCF as a good win or potential top 25
11-08-2019 10:43 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #110
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
I'll double down and say that a 2-loss AAC champ probably will get in the Access Bowl over a 1-loss Boise.

Boise's remaining schedule won't boost their ranking: vs 6-2 Wyoming, 3 cupcakes, Conference championship against SDSU or Fresno. Boise should hope it's SDSU; if Fresno wins their division, Boise probably drops in the polls even if they win out.

Barring a total collapse, the AAC East will be won by Cincinnati. They'd have to lose 2 more games for UCF to win the division. If Cincy loses the season finale to Memphis (giving them 2 losses) and wins the AAC, they'd still end the season with a win over a ranked opponent in the CCG. Cincinnati would probably be ranked slightly behind Boise, all else equal. But the committee has said they look at performance versus common opponents, and Cincinnati has a huge edge there: Cincinnati destroyed Marshall on the road 52-14, while Boise squeeked by at home vs Marshall.

If Cincinnati collapses, 2-loss UCF is in the championship game. They'd end the season with a 7-game win streak and a win over a top-20 AAC West champion, which would probably boost them past Boise.

Because the AAC West is a 3-way tie for 1st, the only likely 2-loss AAC West champion is Navy. Their 2 losses would both be to ranked teams (Memphis and Notre Dame). A 2-loss Navy champ would still end the season with 2 wins vs ranked teams (SMU and the AAC East winner). That would almost certainly boost them past Boise.

If another 2-loss AAC West champion emerges, it would probably mean that Cincinnati beat Memphis to end the regular season. So if the AAC championship game is won by a 2-loss AAC West Champion, it would be over a likely #13 Cincinnati in the AAC title game. That would probably boost them past Boise.

But if a 2-loss AAC West champ faces a 2-loss UCF or Cincy, then things get dicier. A collapse of all 4 of the AAC's ranked teams would require 3-4 upsets by the bottom half of the AAC. This is the scenario Boise should be hoping for.


Remaining Schedules:
Cincinnati: @Memphis, vs 6-3 Temple, 2 cupcakes - a loss to Memphis would still give them 2 wins over ranked teams (UCF and CCG)
SMU: @Navy, vs 6-3 Tulane, 1 cupcake - a loss to Navy likely takes them out of the CCG
Navy: @Notre Dame, vs SMU, rivalry vs Army, 1 cupcake - a loss to SMU likely takes them out of the CCG
Memphis: vs Cincinnati, 2 cupcakes - a loss to Cincinnati likely takes them out of the CCG
UCF: @ 6-3 Tulane, rivalry vs USF, 1 cupcake - needs Cincy to lose 2 games to get to CCG, unlikely to happen

Boise: vs 6-2 Wyoming, 3 cupcakes
SDSU: 4 cupcakes
11-08-2019 10:46 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #111
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
Cincy and Memphis both control their own fates but have to face each Other in the regular season finale. Cincy has a final 2 game stretch that could be a doozy and can’t sleep on Temple.

A Memphis loss to Cincy in the regular is a very good thing for the SMU-Navy winner. If that winner is Navy and they also have a win over ND if they win the CCG they are most definitely in.
11-08-2019 11:28 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #112
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
Cincinnati could lose to Temple which puta Temple into the AAC championship against the west champ. Temple wins all out? It will go to the Boise/San Diego State champ. If both lose out and App. State wins out? App. State would go to the NY 6 bowl. You have to win your conference championship game to go. It is setting up that Temple could be the AAC champ.
11-09-2019 05:53 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Online
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Post: #113
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-09-2019 05:53 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Cincinnati could lose to Temple which puta Temple into the AAC championship against the west champ. Temple wins all out? It will go to the Boise/San Diego State champ. If both lose out and App. State wins out? App. State would go to the NY 6 bowl. You have to win your conference championship game to go. It is setting up that Temple could be the AAC champ.

Wrong. Temple needs 2 Cincy losses (including winning @Cincy). Nothing is setting up for anything.
11-09-2019 06:12 AM
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