(11-05-2019 10:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (11-05-2019 09:53 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote: (11-03-2019 04:19 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (11-03-2019 03:39 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote: (11-03-2019 06:42 AM)DavidSt Wrote: 1.Boise State 95% of winning all out.
2.Memphis 65% of winning all out.
3.SMU 55% of winning all out.
4.Appalachian State 75% of winning all out. Be ranked outside the top 25.
5.San Diego State 65% of winning out.
6.Cincinnati 35% to win all out.
7.Navy 65%
8.La. Tech 55%
9.UCF 25%
10.UAB 15%
11.Air Force 35%
12.La.-Lafayette 15%
13.Georgia State 5%
These are 1 and 2 loss teams. 1-8 1 loss teams. 9 to 13 are 2 loss teams. 4 AAC teams are 1 loss team who could give each other another loss to be eliminated. Boise State vs San Diego State looks like be the MWC championships. App. State could face La.-Lafayette or Georgia State in the SBC title game. App. State loss sent them far behind Boise State. Boise State might be favored more by Bowl reps over Memphis right now because they are a better name brand in football than Memphis.
Both Memphis and Cincinnati are rated higher than Boise. If Navy beats ND, they will also be ranked higher than Boise. Boise is hoping Cincinnati, Memphis, and Navy all lose a game...otherwise they ain't going.
Yes, that's the problem Boise faces - yes, AAC teams will lose, but unless they lose to *unranked* AAC teams, it won't matter.
What will happen is, if Boise is #21, and if a #23 AAC team beats a #17 AAC team, the #23 team will move up to #18 while the #18 team drops to #23, but either way, the AAC still has a team ranked higher than #21 Boise.
What Boise needs is for these ranked AAC teams to lose to *unranked* AAC teams, e.g., for say a USF to beat a Memphis or a Houston to beat an SMU. In that case, the higher ranked AAC team will drop behind Boise without another AAC team jumping them.
But that ain't likely to happen. Memphis is 7-1 (or whatever) and USF isn't for a reason.
And that's why those hoping the AAC doesn't get the bid because they will beat each other up down the stretch are likely in for a rude awaking. Truth is, it will be a shock if the AAC doesn't tend up with the NY6 bid.
I think you are giving the committee too much credit with that swap. I think if #17 loses to #23, the #23 moves to #22, and #17 moves to 25th/unranked.
We have to face the facts. The rankings don't matter as much as wins/losses from here.
Boise, being in a less competitive conference, is at an advantage. They will likely win out.
Either one of the AAC teams wins out from here, which is way less likely, or Boise gets the nod. It's BS, but it's the likely outcome.
Disagree. I think it is 90%+ likely that the AAC gets the NY6 bid. The committee cares greatly about conference strength and SOS. Those AAC fans who are fretting over a bunch of two-loss AAC teams losing out to a one-loss Boise are IMO wetting their pants over a very unlikely scenario.
That said, i admit I am working on the assumption that the CFP tonight will be similar to the AP. If it isn't, if the CFP gives the MWC more credit than I think it will and the AAC less, then that assessment could change. It is going to be very interesting seeing how the CFP shakes out tonight.
In post #35, I looked at what was highly probable. But a football, ain't round, it'll bounce funny, so what about those possibilties of a 2-loss or 3-loss team being the AAC champion?
Here out, any "rankings" are Massey Composite ranking as of 2 Nov games for any team not presently in the CFP or explicit assumptions/guesses about the CFP based on 5 Nov CFP rankings and other stated assumptions such as 1-loss SDSU sneaking in.
For the sake of this, let's stipulate that Boise State wins out, and give them the best case victim in the mwc CCG - San Diego State wins out to take the mwc West and creeps into the CFP rankings - give 'em #23. (FPI favors Hawaii at home, Massey still favors SDSU away; if SDSU beats Fresno but loses at Hawaii, they still take the West but wouldn't be CFP ranked.)
That CCG win would be Boise State's best win, so the resume would be: best wins #23, #31, #61 FSU. Their loss would be #46 BYU.
With that Boise resume, it is hard to find a 2-loss AAC champ that is even debatable resume against Boise's. To get there, you get into the realm of talking about MULTIPLE upset wins - not "the top AAC teams beating each other up" but MULTIPLE upset wins with cumulative probabilities in single digit percentages or in decimals.
At risk of stating the obvious,
Memphis wins out, beating Cincinnati on Black Friday and CCG Cincinnati or other, 1-loss Memphis >> 1-loss Boise.
Cincinnati wins out, beating Memphis on Black Friday and CCG Memphis or other 1-loss Cincinnati >> 1-loss Boise.
2-loss Cincinnati:
Two paths here.
Cincinnati wins until Black Friday, beats Memphis on Black Friday, then beats Memphis or the SMU-Navy winner in the CCG. Resume: Best wins are #21, #24/#25, MC #21 UCF, MC #47 UCLA. Losses are #1 and CFP #21, which they avenge in the CCG. Cincinnati > Boise.
Cincinnati takes an upset loss, beats Memphis on Black Friday, then beats Memphis and beats Memphis or the SMU-Navy winner in the CCG. Resume: Best wins are #21,#24/25, MC #21 UCF, MC#47 UCLA. Losses are #1 and #65 (most likely AAC upset loss). Cincinnati > Boise
2-loss Memphis:
Memphis wins until Black Friday, loses to Cincinnati on Black Friday, but goes to the CCG with tie-breaker head-to-head or first three-way tiebreaker over both SMU and Navy and beats Cincinnati in rematch. Resume: Best wins are #20, #24, #25, MC #69 Ole Miss. Losses to #20 (avenged in CCG) and #65. Memphis > Boise
If Memphis gets upset before Black Friday, but beats Cincinnati, they can still take the West if the SMU-Navy winner has a second AAC loss, say SMU to Tulane or Navy at Houston. In that case best wins are #20 (twice), #24, #25, MC #69 Ole Miss. Losses to #65 and #70 look bad, but I say that multiple quality wins better than any Boise win, plus an SEC win, even if mediocre carry more weight. Memphis > Boise
2-loss Navy:
Looking at probabilities, if Memphis loses to Cincinnati, Navy is favored vs SMU and @ Houston, so a loss to ND, puts 10-1(7-1) Navy in the CCG. Navy over Cincinnati in the CCG has a resume of: Best wins #20, #25, #31 (Navy's third best win = Boise's bestest win) and #42; losses to #15, #21. This would wait for the Army-Navy game, but Navy > Boise.
A 2-loss Navy team that beat ND, beat SMU but loses to Houston would only make the CCG if Memphis loses to Cincinnati AND an upset loss. That resume is actually even better compared to Boise: Wins #15, #20, #25, #31 (Navy's fourth best win = Boise's bestest win) and #42, losses @ #21 and @ #70. Navy > Boise
2-loss SMU:
For SMU to take a second AAC loss and still win the West / win the CCG, that would have to be an upset loss, win over Navy, and one Memphis upset loss in addition to Memphis loss to Cincinnati (or if Memphis beats Cincinnati, would require TWO Memphis upset losses, and SMU would still beat a highly ranked Cincinnati in the CCG). SMU's wins would be #20, #24, #40 TCU. Losses to #21, #42. This is honestly the closest of them, but I still say SMU > Boise
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