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G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #21
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-03-2019 06:42 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  1.Boise State 95% of winning all out.
2.Memphis 65% of winning all out.
3.SMU 55% of winning all out.
4.Appalachian State 75% of winning all out. Be ranked outside the top 25.
5.San Diego State 65% of winning out.
6.Cincinnati 35% to win all out.
7.Navy 65%
8.La. Tech 55%
9.UCF 25%
10.UAB 15%
11.Air Force 35%
12.La.-Lafayette 15%
13.Georgia State 5%

These are 1 and 2 loss teams. 1-8 1 loss teams. 9 to 13 are 2 loss teams. 4 AAC teams are 1 loss team who could give each other another loss to be eliminated. Boise State vs San Diego State looks like be the MWC championships. App. State could face La.-Lafayette or Georgia State in the SBC title game. App. State loss sent them far behind Boise State. Boise State might be favored more by Bowl reps over Memphis right now because they are a better name brand in football than Memphis.

Both Memphis and Cincinnati are rated higher than Boise. If Navy beats ND, they will also be ranked higher than Boise. Boise is hoping Cincinnati, Memphis, and Navy all lose a game...otherwise they ain't going.
11-03-2019 03:39 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #22
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-03-2019 03:39 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 06:42 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  1.Boise State 95% of winning all out.
2.Memphis 65% of winning all out.
3.SMU 55% of winning all out.
4.Appalachian State 75% of winning all out. Be ranked outside the top 25.
5.San Diego State 65% of winning out.
6.Cincinnati 35% to win all out.
7.Navy 65%
8.La. Tech 55%
9.UCF 25%
10.UAB 15%
11.Air Force 35%
12.La.-Lafayette 15%
13.Georgia State 5%

These are 1 and 2 loss teams. 1-8 1 loss teams. 9 to 13 are 2 loss teams. 4 AAC teams are 1 loss team who could give each other another loss to be eliminated. Boise State vs San Diego State looks like be the MWC championships. App. State could face La.-Lafayette or Georgia State in the SBC title game. App. State loss sent them far behind Boise State. Boise State might be favored more by Bowl reps over Memphis right now because they are a better name brand in football than Memphis.

Both Memphis and Cincinnati are rated higher than Boise. If Navy beats ND, they will also be ranked higher than Boise. Boise is hoping Cincinnati, Memphis, and Navy all lose a game...otherwise they ain't going.

And frankly SMU too.
11-03-2019 03:40 PM
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #23
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
Memphis
Cincinnati
SMU
Navy
Boise

If Navy beats ND, they jump to one or 2. App is out unless all AAC teams have 2 or 3 losses and Boise and SDSU also have at least 2 losses (not likely). UCF is also still in it, if Cincinnati falls down the stretch.

AAC teams all get the advantage of playing top 25 opponents. 4 AAC teams in the polls, with UCF sitting at #26. AAC will have 5 teams ranked next week, provided all win.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2019 03:45 PM by BullsFanInTX.)
11-03-2019 03:42 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #24
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-03-2019 03:42 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Memphis
Cincinnati
SMU
Navy
Boise

If Navy beats ND, they jump to one or 2. App is out unless all AAC teams have 2 or 3 losses and Boise and SDSU also have at least 2 losses (not likely). UCF is also still in it, if Cincinnati falls down the stretch.

Navy has to have a loss by Memphis to get back into things....

UCF needs not 1 but 2 Cincy losses to get back into things..
11-03-2019 03:45 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #25
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-03-2019 03:39 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 06:42 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  1.Boise State 95% of winning all out.
2.Memphis 65% of winning all out.
3.SMU 55% of winning all out.
4.Appalachian State 75% of winning all out. Be ranked outside the top 25.
5.San Diego State 65% of winning out.
6.Cincinnati 35% to win all out.
7.Navy 65%
8.La. Tech 55%
9.UCF 25%
10.UAB 15%
11.Air Force 35%
12.La.-Lafayette 15%
13.Georgia State 5%

These are 1 and 2 loss teams. 1-8 1 loss teams. 9 to 13 are 2 loss teams. 4 AAC teams are 1 loss team who could give each other another loss to be eliminated. Boise State vs San Diego State looks like be the MWC championships. App. State could face La.-Lafayette or Georgia State in the SBC title game. App. State loss sent them far behind Boise State. Boise State might be favored more by Bowl reps over Memphis right now because they are a better name brand in football than Memphis.

Both Memphis and Cincinnati are rated higher than Boise. If Navy beats ND, they will also be ranked higher than Boise. Boise is hoping Cincinnati, Memphis, and Navy all lose a game...otherwise they ain't going.

Yes, that's the problem Boise faces - yes, AAC teams will lose, but unless they lose to *unranked* AAC teams, it won't matter.

What will happen is, if Boise is #21, and if a #23 AAC team beats a #17 AAC team, the #23 team will move up to #18 while the #18 team drops to #23, but either way, the AAC still has a team ranked higher than #21 Boise.

What Boise needs is for these ranked AAC teams to lose to *unranked* AAC teams, e.g., for say a USF to beat a Memphis or a Houston to beat an SMU. In that case, the higher ranked AAC team will drop behind Boise without another AAC team jumping them.

But that ain't likely to happen. Memphis is 7-1 (or whatever) and USF isn't for a reason.

And that's why those hoping the AAC doesn't get the bid because they will beat each other up down the stretch are likely in for a rude awaking. Truth is, it will be a shock if the AAC doesn't tend up with the NY6 bid.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2019 04:22 PM by quo vadis.)
11-03-2019 04:19 PM
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Gamecock Offline
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Post: #26
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
Huh? App State is 75% to win out? They are underdogs this week
11-03-2019 05:23 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #27
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-03-2019 09:18 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 08:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 06:42 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  1.Boise State 95% of winning all out.
2.Memphis 65% of winning all out.
3.SMU 55% of winning all out.
4.Appalachian State 75% of winning all out. Be ranked outside the top 25.
5.San Diego State 65% of winning out.

IMO, the AAC champ has an overwhelming chance of being the G5 rep.

The AAC is way ahead of the other G5 this year, and the committee will recognize that.

But we shall see.

07-coffee3


AAC still games:
Cincinnati still have Temple and Memphis.
Memphis still have Houston and Cincinnati.
SMU still have Navy and Tulane.
NAvy still have Notre Dame, SMU and Houston.
Boise State still have Wyoming and Utah State.
The chances for all 4 AAC schools to lose again is a lot higher since they could take each other out. Lets say Temple wins the AAC championship game? That will take the AAC out of the picture for good.

Temple? If Cincinnatti loses the division it will probably go to UCF. A 2 loss UCF winning the AAC CCG has to factor if BSU will get in.
11-03-2019 09:44 PM
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goodknightfl Offline
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Post: #28
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-03-2019 03:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 03:42 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Memphis
Cincinnati
SMU
Navy
Boise

If Navy beats ND, they jump to one or 2. App is out unless all AAC teams have 2 or 3 losses and Boise and SDSU also have at least 2 losses (not likely). UCF is also still in it, if Cincinnati falls down the stretch.

Navy has to have a loss by Memphis to get back into things....

UCF needs not 1 but 2 Cincy losses to get back into things..

Agree, this is likely a 3 way race now, barring a late season melt down.

Memphis, Cincy, then Boise.
11-04-2019 08:17 AM
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TrueBlueDrew Offline
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Post: #29
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-03-2019 06:42 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  App. State could face La.-Lafayette or Georgia State in the SBC title game. App. State loss sent them far behind Boise State.

App State can't face Ga State in the title game. They're in the same division. If Georgia Southern beats Troy and Ga State they will be the Sun Belt East representative in the title game, not App, which automatically puts App out of the running for the Access Bowl even if they win out the rest of the way.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2019 08:54 AM by TrueBlueDrew.)
11-04-2019 08:53 AM
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asucrutch23 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-04-2019 08:53 AM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 06:42 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  App. State could face La.-Lafayette or Georgia State in the SBC title game. App. State loss sent them far behind Boise State.

App State can't face Ga State in the title game. They're in the same division. If Georgia Southern beats Troy and Ga State they will be the Sun Belt East representative in the title game, not App, which automatically puts App out of the running for the Access Bowl even if they win out the rest of the way.

You have to win all 4 of your remaining Sun Belt games to be sure of the East. Not saying you won't, because you'll likely be favored in all 4. But saying you just have to beat Troy and GSU is not correct.
11-04-2019 10:14 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #31
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
Will be very interesting to see if the committee shows as much respect to the AAC in their rankings as the other polls do.
11-04-2019 11:04 AM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
Boise best chance for the NY6 game is to have a 2-loss AAC champ which has a really good chance of happening.
11-04-2019 11:23 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-04-2019 11:23 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  Boise best chance for the NY6 game is to have a 2-loss AAC champ which has a really good chance of happening.

You like a few others see my point that AAC schools could lose 1 or more games still to come. The AAC posters do not want to face the facts.
11-04-2019 11:54 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #34
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-04-2019 11:23 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  Boise best chance for the NY6 game is to have a 2-loss AAC champ which has a really good chance of happening.

I think this is wishful thinking. The AAC is strong, it is likely to have four ranked teams in the CFP tomorrow.

So what that starts is a merry-go-round where one AAC team ahead of Boise loses, but are leap-frogged by the AAC team that beat the first AAC team.

It's like when #8 Georgia plays #6 Florida, and SEC-haters think "well now an SEC team is going to be knocked out of NY6 contention". And Georgia wins, and what happens is Georgia moves up to #6, Florida drops to #9, and basically the SEC is exactly where it was before the game.

The only way the AAC isn't getting the bid is if these top teams like Memphis and Navy and Cincy and SMU lose to *bad* AAC teams, not each other. Boise needs for upsets to happen - USF to beat Memphis, for example, or ECU to beat Cincy, which almost happened but didn't.

And that is unlikely.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2019 12:41 PM by quo vadis.)
11-04-2019 12:41 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-03-2019 09:18 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 08:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 06:42 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  1.Boise State 95% of winning all out.
2.Memphis 65% of winning all out.
3.SMU 55% of winning all out.
4.Appalachian State 75% of winning all out. Be ranked outside the top 25.
5.San Diego State 65% of winning out.

IMO, the AAC champ has an overwhelming chance of being the G5 rep.

The AAC is way ahead of the other G5 this year, and the committee will recognize that.

But we shall see.

07-coffee3


AAC still games:
Cincinnati still have Temple and Memphis.
Memphis still have Houston and Cincinnati.
SMU still have Navy and Tulane.
NAvy still have Notre Dame, SMU and Houston.
Boise State still have Wyoming and Utah State.
The chances for all 4 AAC schools to lose again is a lot higher since they could take each other out. Lets say Temple wins the AAC championship game? That will take the AAC out of the picture for good.

Oh, my, where to begin...

For probabilities, both FPI and Massey (with his own rating system, not the composite rankings) offer an accessible look at statistical probabilities of winning each future game. The two are generally within 5% of each other so we can use either. FPI seems more favorable to Boise, so let's use that.

FPI gives Boise's chances in four remaining games as: 80.4%, 97.1%, 70.2%, and 85%. Cumulative probability is 46%. FPI's main page has a win-out probability of 38.2%, telling us that that column has also factored in a probability of winning against the most likely CCG opponent.
So while Boise is favored to win out, only one game is at your WAG of 95%, much less the cumulative.

You know who else is favored in remaining games? Memphis.
And Cincinnati is favored to win out until the finale against Memphis.
Compared to Boise's 46% chance of getting to the CCG unblemished, it is likely that Memphis (48.6%) will meet Cincinnati (67.5%) on Black Friday, both ahead of Boise. They could have a CCG rematch, or depending on other results, the CCG would likely be the Black Friday victor vs SMU, Navy, or UCF.

The reasonably likely worst case for the AAC is a two-loss champ, with a CCG win and possibly another November win over a team or teams currently ranked ahead of Boise.

Your hypothetical of a three-loss Temple as the AAC champ, including their bad loss to Buffalo? You did correctly identify the AAC worst case.
Temple winning out is a 2.5% probability, AND winning the East requires two more UCF losses plus a Cincinnati loss in addition to Temple beating them. The cumulative probability of that is about 6/100th of 1%, BEFORE their win probability in the CCG. Then they would still have November-December wins over Cincinnati plus a ranked West champ among Memphis, Navy, SMU...all four of which are better wins than any and all of Boise's regular season or CCG opponents.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2019 09:26 PM by slhNavy91.)
11-04-2019 09:22 PM
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Fishpro10987 Offline
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RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
I have a better shot at dating Lady Gaga than Temple has winning the AAC East and AAC Conference Championship.
11-05-2019 01:49 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #37
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
From this site

Cincy 49%
Navy 21%
Memphis 14%
SMU 12%
App St 6%
Boise 5%
UCF 3%
ULL 1%

I count a 10% chance that 2 G5 teams make Cotton. I'm guessing some of that is an 11-1 Navy/SMU finishing behind Memphis in the division yet in the Top 12. The other possible all-G5 Cotton matchups are Boise or App making the Top 12 WITH the AAC champ. Surprised to see ULL there, and Boise's relative position to App St. Hmm, with this simulation's quirks, some of those all-G5 Cottons may be a CCG losing Cincy holding onto a Top 12 ranking.
11-05-2019 02:05 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #38
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-03-2019 04:19 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 03:39 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 06:42 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  1.Boise State 95% of winning all out.
2.Memphis 65% of winning all out.
3.SMU 55% of winning all out.
4.Appalachian State 75% of winning all out. Be ranked outside the top 25.
5.San Diego State 65% of winning out.
6.Cincinnati 35% to win all out.
7.Navy 65%
8.La. Tech 55%
9.UCF 25%
10.UAB 15%
11.Air Force 35%
12.La.-Lafayette 15%
13.Georgia State 5%

These are 1 and 2 loss teams. 1-8 1 loss teams. 9 to 13 are 2 loss teams. 4 AAC teams are 1 loss team who could give each other another loss to be eliminated. Boise State vs San Diego State looks like be the MWC championships. App. State could face La.-Lafayette or Georgia State in the SBC title game. App. State loss sent them far behind Boise State. Boise State might be favored more by Bowl reps over Memphis right now because they are a better name brand in football than Memphis.

Both Memphis and Cincinnati are rated higher than Boise. If Navy beats ND, they will also be ranked higher than Boise. Boise is hoping Cincinnati, Memphis, and Navy all lose a game...otherwise they ain't going.

Yes, that's the problem Boise faces - yes, AAC teams will lose, but unless they lose to *unranked* AAC teams, it won't matter.

What will happen is, if Boise is #21, and if a #23 AAC team beats a #17 AAC team, the #23 team will move up to #18 while the #18 team drops to #23, but either way, the AAC still has a team ranked higher than #21 Boise.

What Boise needs is for these ranked AAC teams to lose to *unranked* AAC teams, e.g., for say a USF to beat a Memphis or a Houston to beat an SMU. In that case, the higher ranked AAC team will drop behind Boise without another AAC team jumping them.

But that ain't likely to happen. Memphis is 7-1 (or whatever) and USF isn't for a reason.

And that's why those hoping the AAC doesn't get the bid because they will beat each other up down the stretch are likely in for a rude awaking. Truth is, it will be a shock if the AAC doesn't tend up with the NY6 bid.

I think you are giving the committee too much credit with that swap. I think if #17 loses to #23, the #23 moves to #22, and #17 moves to 25th/unranked.

We have to face the facts. The rankings don't matter as much as wins/losses from here.

Boise, being in a less competitive conference, is at an advantage. They will likely win out.

Either one of the AAC teams wins out from here, which is way less likely, or Boise gets the nod. It's BS, but it's the likely outcome.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2019 09:53 AM by CoastalJuan.)
11-05-2019 09:53 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #39
RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-05-2019 09:53 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 04:19 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 03:39 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 06:42 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  1.Boise State 95% of winning all out.
2.Memphis 65% of winning all out.
3.SMU 55% of winning all out.
4.Appalachian State 75% of winning all out. Be ranked outside the top 25.
5.San Diego State 65% of winning out.
6.Cincinnati 35% to win all out.
7.Navy 65%
8.La. Tech 55%
9.UCF 25%
10.UAB 15%
11.Air Force 35%
12.La.-Lafayette 15%
13.Georgia State 5%

These are 1 and 2 loss teams. 1-8 1 loss teams. 9 to 13 are 2 loss teams. 4 AAC teams are 1 loss team who could give each other another loss to be eliminated. Boise State vs San Diego State looks like be the MWC championships. App. State could face La.-Lafayette or Georgia State in the SBC title game. App. State loss sent them far behind Boise State. Boise State might be favored more by Bowl reps over Memphis right now because they are a better name brand in football than Memphis.

Both Memphis and Cincinnati are rated higher than Boise. If Navy beats ND, they will also be ranked higher than Boise. Boise is hoping Cincinnati, Memphis, and Navy all lose a game...otherwise they ain't going.

Yes, that's the problem Boise faces - yes, AAC teams will lose, but unless they lose to *unranked* AAC teams, it won't matter.

What will happen is, if Boise is #21, and if a #23 AAC team beats a #17 AAC team, the #23 team will move up to #18 while the #18 team drops to #23, but either way, the AAC still has a team ranked higher than #21 Boise.

What Boise needs is for these ranked AAC teams to lose to *unranked* AAC teams, e.g., for say a USF to beat a Memphis or a Houston to beat an SMU. In that case, the higher ranked AAC team will drop behind Boise without another AAC team jumping them.

But that ain't likely to happen. Memphis is 7-1 (or whatever) and USF isn't for a reason.

And that's why those hoping the AAC doesn't get the bid because they will beat each other up down the stretch are likely in for a rude awaking. Truth is, it will be a shock if the AAC doesn't tend up with the NY6 bid.

I think you are giving the committee too much credit with that swap. I think if #17 loses to #23, the #23 moves to #22, and #17 moves to 25th/unranked.

We have to face the facts. The rankings don't matter as much as wins/losses from here.

Boise, being in a less competitive conference, is at an advantage. They will likely win out.

Either one of the AAC teams wins out from here, which is way less likely, or Boise gets the nod. It's BS, but it's the likely outcome.

Disagree. I think it is 90%+ likely that the AAC gets the NY6 bid. The committee cares greatly about conference strength and SOS. Those AAC fans who are fretting over a bunch of two-loss AAC teams losing out to a one-loss Boise are IMO wetting their pants over a very unlikely scenario.

That said, i admit I am working on the assumption that the CFP tonight will be similar to the AP. If it isn't, if the CFP gives the MWC more credit than I think it will and the AAC less, then that assessment could change. It is going to be very interesting seeing how the CFP shakes out tonight.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2019 10:57 AM by quo vadis.)
11-05-2019 10:54 AM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-05-2019 10:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-05-2019 09:53 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 04:19 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 03:39 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(11-03-2019 06:42 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  1.Boise State 95% of winning all out.
2.Memphis 65% of winning all out.
3.SMU 55% of winning all out.
4.Appalachian State 75% of winning all out. Be ranked outside the top 25.
5.San Diego State 65% of winning out.
6.Cincinnati 35% to win all out.
7.Navy 65%
8.La. Tech 55%
9.UCF 25%
10.UAB 15%
11.Air Force 35%
12.La.-Lafayette 15%
13.Georgia State 5%

These are 1 and 2 loss teams. 1-8 1 loss teams. 9 to 13 are 2 loss teams. 4 AAC teams are 1 loss team who could give each other another loss to be eliminated. Boise State vs San Diego State looks like be the MWC championships. App. State could face La.-Lafayette or Georgia State in the SBC title game. App. State loss sent them far behind Boise State. Boise State might be favored more by Bowl reps over Memphis right now because they are a better name brand in football than Memphis.

Both Memphis and Cincinnati are rated higher than Boise. If Navy beats ND, they will also be ranked higher than Boise. Boise is hoping Cincinnati, Memphis, and Navy all lose a game...otherwise they ain't going.

Yes, that's the problem Boise faces - yes, AAC teams will lose, but unless they lose to *unranked* AAC teams, it won't matter.

What will happen is, if Boise is #21, and if a #23 AAC team beats a #17 AAC team, the #23 team will move up to #18 while the #18 team drops to #23, but either way, the AAC still has a team ranked higher than #21 Boise.

What Boise needs is for these ranked AAC teams to lose to *unranked* AAC teams, e.g., for say a USF to beat a Memphis or a Houston to beat an SMU. In that case, the higher ranked AAC team will drop behind Boise without another AAC team jumping them.

But that ain't likely to happen. Memphis is 7-1 (or whatever) and USF isn't for a reason.

And that's why those hoping the AAC doesn't get the bid because they will beat each other up down the stretch are likely in for a rude awaking. Truth is, it will be a shock if the AAC doesn't tend up with the NY6 bid.

I think you are giving the committee too much credit with that swap. I think if #17 loses to #23, the #23 moves to #22, and #17 moves to 25th/unranked.

We have to face the facts. The rankings don't matter as much as wins/losses from here.

Boise, being in a less competitive conference, is at an advantage. They will likely win out.

Either one of the AAC teams wins out from here, which is way less likely, or Boise gets the nod. It's BS, but it's the likely outcome.

Disagree. I think it is 90%+ likely that the AAC gets the NY6 bid. The committee cares greatly about conference strength and SOS. Those AAC fans who are fretting over a bunch of two-loss AAC teams losing out to a one-loss Boise are IMO wetting their pants over a very unlikely scenario.

That said, i admit I am working on the assumption that the CFP tonight will be similar to the AP. If it isn't, if the CFP gives the MWC more credit than I think it will and the AAC less, then that assessment could change. It is going to be very interesting seeing how the CFP shakes out tonight.

In post #35, I looked at what was highly probable. But a football, ain't round, it'll bounce funny, so what about those possibilties of a 2-loss or 3-loss team being the AAC champion?
Here out, any "rankings" are Massey Composite ranking as of 2 Nov games for any team not presently in the CFP or explicit assumptions/guesses about the CFP based on 5 Nov CFP rankings and other stated assumptions such as 1-loss SDSU sneaking in.

For the sake of this, let's stipulate that Boise State wins out, and give them the best case victim in the mwc CCG - San Diego State wins out to take the mwc West and creeps into the CFP rankings - give 'em #23. (FPI favors Hawaii at home, Massey still favors SDSU away; if SDSU beats Fresno but loses at Hawaii, they still take the West but wouldn't be CFP ranked.)
That CCG win would be Boise State's best win, so the resume would be: best wins #23, #31, #61 FSU. Their loss would be #46 BYU.

With that Boise resume, it is hard to find a 2-loss AAC champ that is even debatable resume against Boise's. To get there, you get into the realm of talking about MULTIPLE upset wins - not "the top AAC teams beating each other up" but MULTIPLE upset wins with cumulative probabilities in single digit percentages or in decimals.

At risk of stating the obvious,
Memphis wins out, beating Cincinnati on Black Friday and CCG Cincinnati or other, 1-loss Memphis >> 1-loss Boise.
Cincinnati wins out, beating Memphis on Black Friday and CCG Memphis or other 1-loss Cincinnati >> 1-loss Boise.

2-loss Cincinnati:
Two paths here.
Cincinnati wins until Black Friday, beats Memphis on Black Friday, then beats Memphis or the SMU-Navy winner in the CCG. Resume: Best wins are #21, #24/#25, MC #21 UCF, MC #47 UCLA. Losses are #1 and CFP #21, which they avenge in the CCG. Cincinnati > Boise.
Cincinnati takes an upset loss, beats Memphis on Black Friday, then beats Memphis and beats Memphis or the SMU-Navy winner in the CCG. Resume: Best wins are #21,#24/25, MC #21 UCF, MC#47 UCLA. Losses are #1 and #65 (most likely AAC upset loss). Cincinnati > Boise

2-loss Memphis:
Memphis wins until Black Friday, loses to Cincinnati on Black Friday, but goes to the CCG with tie-breaker head-to-head or first three-way tiebreaker over both SMU and Navy and beats Cincinnati in rematch. Resume: Best wins are #20, #24, #25, MC #69 Ole Miss. Losses to #20 (avenged in CCG) and #65. Memphis > Boise
If Memphis gets upset before Black Friday, but beats Cincinnati, they can still take the West if the SMU-Navy winner has a second AAC loss, say SMU to Tulane or Navy at Houston. In that case best wins are #20 (twice), #24, #25, MC #69 Ole Miss. Losses to #65 and #70 look bad, but I say that multiple quality wins better than any Boise win, plus an SEC win, even if mediocre carry more weight. Memphis > Boise

2-loss Navy:
Looking at probabilities, if Memphis loses to Cincinnati, Navy is favored vs SMU and @ Houston, so a loss to ND, puts 10-1(7-1) Navy in the CCG. Navy over Cincinnati in the CCG has a resume of: Best wins #20, #25, #31 (Navy's third best win = Boise's bestest win) and #42; losses to #15, #21. This would wait for the Army-Navy game, but Navy > Boise.
A 2-loss Navy team that beat ND, beat SMU but loses to Houston would only make the CCG if Memphis loses to Cincinnati AND an upset loss. That resume is actually even better compared to Boise: Wins #15, #20, #25, #31 (Navy's fourth best win = Boise's bestest win) and #42, losses @ #21 and @ #70. Navy > Boise

2-loss SMU:
For SMU to take a second AAC loss and still win the West / win the CCG, that would have to be an upset loss, win over Navy, and one Memphis upset loss in addition to Memphis loss to Cincinnati (or if Memphis beats Cincinnati, would require TWO Memphis upset losses, and SMU would still beat a highly ranked Cincinnati in the CCG). SMU's wins would be #20, #24, #40 TCU. Losses to #21, #42. This is honestly the closest of them, but I still say SMU > Boise
11-07-2019 10:17 PM
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