The unofficial online home for fans of the University of Cincinnati Bearcats. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

(11-04-2019 11:36 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:30 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:09 AM)cincybb51 Wrote:  https://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html

Love the Bearcats and hope someday we deserve the respect this system gives us (#5) but right now in reality it is 8 to 15 places too high.

Can one of you stat nerds explain this?

Colley Matrix doesn't use margin of victory. UC has played a very good schedule by the numbers and their only loss is to the number 1 team.

So what's up with the other ones that have us top 10? Do they also not include margin of victory? It seems weird that some of the BCS polls like us so much when SP+ and Sagarin don't even have us top 25.

Also, what polls do you tend to look at most? This stuff is all really interesting to me.

(11-04-2019 12:20 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:36 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:30 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:09 AM)cincybb51 Wrote:  https://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html

Love the Bearcats and hope someday we deserve the respect this system gives us (#5) but right now in reality it is 8 to 15 places too high.

Can one of you stat nerds explain this?

Colley Matrix doesn't use margin of victory. UC has played a very good schedule by the numbers and their only loss is to the number 1 team.

So what's up with the other ones that have us top 10? Do they also not include margin of victory? It seems weird that some of the BCS polls like us so much when SP+ and Sagarin don't even have us top 25.

Also, what polls do you tend to look at most? This stuff is all really interesting to me.

It also does not include Margin of Victory. The BCS didn't want margin of victory as a measure. It wanted to measure accomplishment not be a predictive metric. Since the computers don't factor into a rating at the end of the year anymore, I tend to prefer the predictive metrics. I like SP+ and Sagarin. SP+ is great because the numbers not only rank teams but like kenpom in basketball have statistical measures for various aspects of the game, so that you don't just understand the quality of the team, but understand how the team plays. Football ratings in particular suffer from a lack of data points (12 game seasons) so you don't have to be married to the actual numbers, but Sagarin/SP+ are both good predictive metrics for looking at team quality.

(11-04-2019 12:35 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 12:20 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:36 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:30 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:09 AM)cincybb51 Wrote:  https://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html

Love the Bearcats and hope someday we deserve the respect this system gives us (#5) but right now in reality it is 8 to 15 places too high.

Can one of you stat nerds explain this?

Colley Matrix doesn't use margin of victory. UC has played a very good schedule by the numbers and their only loss is to the number 1 team.

So what's up with the other ones that have us top 10? Do they also not include margin of victory? It seems weird that some of the BCS polls like us so much when SP+ and Sagarin don't even have us top 25.

Also, what polls do you tend to look at most? This stuff is all really interesting to me.

It also does not include Margin of Victory. The BCS didn't want margin of victory as a measure. It wanted to measure accomplishment not be a predictive metric. Since the computers don't factor into a rating at the end of the year anymore, I tend to prefer the predictive metrics. I like SP+ and Sagarin. SP+ is great because the numbers not only rank teams but like kenpom in basketball have statistical measures for various aspects of the game, so that you don't just understand the quality of the team, but understand how the team plays. Football ratings in particular suffer from a lack of data points (12 game seasons) so you don't have to be married to the actual numbers, but Sagarin/SP+ are both good predictive metrics for looking at team quality.

I love my Cats but Wolfe and Colley probably have never watched any games this year. Top 25 perhaps, top 10? No way!

(11-04-2019 12:35 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 12:20 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:36 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:30 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Can one of you stat nerds explain this?

Colley Matrix doesn't use margin of victory. UC has played a very good schedule by the numbers and their only loss is to the number 1 team.

So what's up with the other ones that have us top 10? Do they also not include margin of victory? It seems weird that some of the BCS polls like us so much when SP+ and Sagarin don't even have us top 25.

Also, what polls do you tend to look at most? This stuff is all really interesting to me.

It also does not include Margin of Victory. The BCS didn't want margin of victory as a measure. It wanted to measure accomplishment not be a predictive metric. Since the computers don't factor into a rating at the end of the year anymore, I tend to prefer the predictive metrics. I like SP+ and Sagarin. SP+ is great because the numbers not only rank teams but like kenpom in basketball have statistical measures for various aspects of the game, so that you don't just understand the quality of the team, but understand how the team plays. Football ratings in particular suffer from a lack of data points (12 game seasons) so you don't have to be married to the actual numbers, but Sagarin/SP+ are both good predictive metrics for looking at team quality.

Most of the computer rankings love UC:

Colley: 5
Massey: 15
Sagarin: 26
Anderson: 8
Wolfe: 6
Billingsley: 16

Average: 12.67

One thing's for sure...having OSU on the schedule works well in our favor when you don't look at how much worse we are than them . With that being said, there's an outside chance that we could have 4 conference champions on our schedule this year out of 11 FBS conferences. Kind of crazy to consider.

(11-04-2019 01:58 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 12:35 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 12:20 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:36 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:30 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Can one of you stat nerds explain this?

Colley Matrix doesn't use margin of victory. UC has played a very good schedule by the numbers and their only loss is to the number 1 team.

So what's up with the other ones that have us top 10? Do they also not include margin of victory? It seems weird that some of the BCS polls like us so much when SP+ and Sagarin don't even have us top 25.

Also, what polls do you tend to look at most? This stuff is all really interesting to me.

It also does not include Margin of Victory. The BCS didn't want margin of victory as a measure. It wanted to measure accomplishment not be a predictive metric. Since the computers don't factor into a rating at the end of the year anymore, I tend to prefer the predictive metrics. I like SP+ and Sagarin. SP+ is great because the numbers not only rank teams but like kenpom in basketball have statistical measures for various aspects of the game, so that you don't just understand the quality of the team, but understand how the team plays. Football ratings in particular suffer from a lack of data points (12 game seasons) so you don't have to be married to the actual numbers, but Sagarin/SP+ are both good predictive metrics for looking at team quality.

Most of the computer rankings love UC:

Colley: 5
Massey: 15
Sagarin: 26
Anderson: 8
Wolfe: 6
Billingsley: 16

Average: 12.67

There's a lot more than that, 84ish by my best last count, each with their own formula. The Massey composite totals all of them (and at least 2 human polls in the AP and USA Today) into one and puts UC 16th. Wisconsin is a shade ahead at 14th which is pretty much equivalent by any reasonable interpretation. I'm with the computers. I don't see any superiority in Wisconsin's overall performance. Maybe we are evaluating by different criteria.

That's awesome

(11-04-2019 01:42 PM)doss2 Wrote:  I love my Cats but Wolfe and Colley probably have never watched any games this year. Top 25 perhaps, top 10? No way!

How many games have you watched start to finish? That's rhetorical by the way, with the point being that nobody watches every part of every game. Teams can and do go from looking great to awful from game to game and often even in the same game. As individuals, we only see part of the picture and even then it is flavored by our expectations and desires. Heck it's not even clear what is being ranked: Is it the best team right NOW or is it the team that has performed the best over the whole season, etc? Are injuries and extenuating circumstances being taken into account (e.g. crazy weather or the death of a player or other relevant person, etc.)? What's a "bad win" or a "good loss" and how do you compare them? Hopefully, you get the point...

At least with computers the subjective criteria are objectively applied. With humans it's pretty much whatever they want it to be at that particular moment.

(11-04-2019 05:47 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 01:42 PM)doss2 Wrote:  I love my Cats but Wolfe and Colley probably have never watched any games this year. Top 25 perhaps, top 10? No way!

How many games have you watched start to finish? That's rhetorical by the way, with the point being that nobody watches every part of every game. Teams can and do go from looking great to awful from game to game and often even in the same game. As individuals, we only see part of the picture and even then it is flavored by our expectations and desires. Heck it's not even clear what is being ranked: Is it the best team right NOW or is it the team that has performed the best over the whole season, etc? Are injuries and extenuating circumstances being taken into account (e.g. crazy weather or the death of a player or other relevant person, etc.)? What's a "bad win" or a "good loss" and how do you compare them? Hopefully, you get the point...

At least with computers the subjective criteria are objectively applied. With humans it's pretty much whatever they want it to be at that particular moment.

I have seen every UC game start to finish. I try to watch as many AAC and others as I can. U had a 2 TV bank setup and on 1 I flip back and forth on 2 games.

Most of these "EXPERTS" are stupid. For example Sporting News has UC in The Military Bowl vs (drumroll) Marshall! Now Bowls tend to not want back to back invites and they sure as hell do not want a matchup of UC v Marshall who we beat 52-14. Do the do any research?

CBS and Bleacher has Memphis in the NY6 and UC in Birmingham v Duke which could happen.