Thoughts?

I see some of them as almost certain to occur, and others has having greater potential downsides. What I don't see is much being done to avoid or mitigate any of them.

"The EIU Top 10 Global Risks

"A US-China trade conflict morphs into a full-blown global trade war
"US corporate debt burden turns downturn into a recession
"Contagion spreads to create a broad-based emerging-markets crisis
"China suffers a disorderly and prolonged economic downturn
"Supply shortages lead to a globally damaging oil-price spike
"Territorial disputes in the South or East China Sea lead to an outbreak of hostilities
"Cyber-attacks and data integrity concerns cripple large parts of the internet
"There is a major military confrontation on the Korean peninsula
"Political gridlock leads to a disorderly no-deal Brexit
"Political and financial instability lead to an Italian banking crisis"

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/t...HtswEjmWJU

Which do you see as certain?

(10-27-2019 02:44 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Which do you see as certain?

Zeihan would say the Chinese turndown and the Italian banking crisis. He would also say that the US is relatively well insulated from them. The US corporate debt crisis would definitely affect us, but that seems a less likely scenario than some of the others. The US corporate crisis that I see is if Bernie or Fauxcohontas is elected and succeed in getting their wealth tax and other taxes enacted. The US would cease to be a competitive country in global markets for anything except stuff that can't be duplicated, like agricultural production in the Midwest.

I have my own ideas about how to insulate us from them. I've posted most of them on here, so won't repeat them.

"Supply shortages lead to a globally damaging oil-price spike"

Warren's platform of banning fracking, banning offshore drilling, and eliminating the capital gains tax treatment will bring this about.