Clemson and LSU are locks

Big 10 champ is a lock

Oregon and Utah are closing in for #4

I think Georgia holds off Oregon & Utah for #4.

Clemson isn’t a lock until they’ve actually gone undefeated. One slip up and they are out completely.

As long as the Big Ten and SEC produce a 0-1 loss team they are in as well. Between Ohio St/Penn St/Minn and LSU/UGA/Bama I think both of those conditions are met.

Baylor must go undefeated to be a lock.

Beyond that, if any slots are still available it will come
Down to which 1 loss teams have the best resumes.

(11-15-2019 12:39 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I think Georgia holds off Oregon & Utah for #4.

Georgia has to win out. If they lose to LSU in the SEC Championship game then they're done with 2 losses and one of them being poor.

LSU is good no matter what as long as they don't collapse.

Clemson is good no matter what as long as they don't collapse.

Looks like the Committee wants to get a PAC team in there this year as they've set up a scenario where the Oregon/Utah winner moves into the 4th slot...assuming neither of them stumble between now and then.

Alabama has a shot if they get some help.

Ohio State is good if they win out, but certain things need to go their way if they lose a game. The Committee did move Minnesota up several spots, but they also dropped Penn State to 9th. It was strange they put 2 separate PAC teams ahead of the secondary Big Ten contenders when their records are equal with PSU and PSU was ahead of them by a few spots last week. The PAC has not been strong in non-conference this season so it's suspicious they are getting this much love at this juncture, but the interesting thing is that both Ohio State and Minnesota didn't play a P5 out of conference. At least Minnesota will now be viewed as a credible big time win if Ohio State beats them, but a 1 loss Big Ten champ will have some issues even though I know most of y'all don't agree with me.

Oklahoma is likely in if they win out..that's my guess, but there will be debate.

Only one that has a shot outside the top 10 is Baylor, but they have to win out.

Conclusion: The call for an 8-team playoff will only grow louder this year barring some monumental upsets.

Georgia beats Auburn 21-14(good game btw, JR!!). Next up, Texas A&M, then Georgia Tech, and then LSU.

(11-15-2019 12:58 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(11-15-2019 12:39 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I think Georgia holds off Oregon & Utah for #4.

Georgia has to win out. If they lose to LSU in the SEC Championship game then they're done with 2 losses and one of them being poor.

LSU is good no matter what as long as they don't collapse.

Clemson is good no matter what as long as they don't collapse.

Looks like the Committee wants to get a PAC team in there this year as they've set up a scenario where the Oregon/Utah winner moves into the 4th slot...assuming neither of them stumble between now and then.

Alabama has a shot if they get some help.

Ohio State is good if they win out, but certain things need to go their way if they lose a game. The Committee did move Minnesota up several spots, but they also dropped Penn State to 9th. It was strange they put 2 separate PAC teams ahead of the secondary Big Ten contenders when their records are equal with PSU and PSU was ahead of them by a few spots last week. The PAC has not been strong in non-conference this season so it's suspicious they are getting this much love at this juncture, but the interesting thing is that both Ohio State and Minnesota didn't play a P5 out of conference. At least Minnesota will now be viewed as a credible big time win if Ohio State beats them, but a 1 loss Big Ten champ will have some issues even though I know most of y'all don't agree with me.

Oklahoma is likely in if they win out..that's my guess, but there will be debate.

Only one that has a shot outside the top 10 is Baylor, but they have to win out.

Conclusion: The call for an 8-team playoff will only grow louder this year barring some monumental upsets.

We actually have more 0 and 1 loss teams than last year at this point. ESPN likes to make the statistically improbable assumption that all the favorites win out. Math will tell you that some will lose.

Now its too unlikely to mention the possibility of a team with 2 losses already getting into the playoffs. I don't think there is any chance without a ccg win. But all of the P5 0 and 1 loss teams have a shot with varying degrees of probability.

People are writing off Baylor, but while their path requires help, the most improbable part of it is them winning their next 3. Them getting help is not unrealistic. LSU and Ohio St. win out and that knocks out UGA, Minnesota and Penn St. Baylor would have to win a rematch with OU which would knock them out. They would then only need Utah and Oregon to lose one of their remaining 3. Alabama losing to Auburn would guarantee it.

Similarly Minnesota still has a possible path.

Florida with no shot at a ccg and Michigan without a realistic shot have no chance. Wisconsin would have to win out and beat Ohio St. and have Ohio St. and Penn St. get a 2nd loss.

Clemson, LSU, and Ohio State are all locks

Georgia can get in with a win, but I don't like their chances against LSU

The last spot will probably be between the OU/Baylor winner and Utah

(12-01-2019 08:46 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  Clemson, LSU, and Ohio State are all locks

Georgia can get in with a win, but I don't like their chances against LSU

The last spot will probably be between the OU/Baylor winner and Utah

Clemson is out with a loss. LSU and Ohio St. have a good shot, but not certain with a loss. And they better hope the other 1 doesn't lose also or they might be competing with each other for the last slot.

(12-01-2019 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 08:46 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  Clemson, LSU, and Ohio State are all locks

Georgia can get in with a win, but I don't like their chances against LSU

The last spot will probably be between the OU/Baylor winner and Utah

Clemson is out with a loss. LSU and Ohio St. have a good shot, but not certain with a loss. And they better hope the other 1 doesn't lose also or they might be competing with each other for the last slot.

Clemson has been "out with a loss" this whole year. Do you really think Dabo is gonna have a brainfart and they'll lose to Virginia?

Nothing has been more sure than Clemson in the playoffs this year.

Clemson is out with a loss, but that's like saying the roof of my house is gone if a meteor hits it.

And those two events are about equally likely.

(12-01-2019 04:02 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Clemson is out with a loss, but that's like saying the roof of my house is gone if a meteor hits it.

And those two events are about equally likely.

A lot stranger things have happened in football.

First Big 12 ccg, Texas 37, Nebraska 27. Nebraska 94-97 was one of the greatest runs of all time and '95 Nebraska was perhaps the best team ever.

With Oregon and Minnesota losing, Clemson actually has a shot even if they do lose. They would need Oregon to beat Utah and LSU to beat UGA, but would have a pretty decent chance to get in if those two things happened.

Strange things happen sometimes. But if Clemson loses to Virginia, I'm pretty sure it would be the first time a 29-point favorite has lost in a conference championship game.

(12-01-2019 06:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Strange things happen sometimes. But if Clemson loses to Virginia, I'm pretty sure it would be the first time a 29-point favorite has lost in a conference championship game.

Texas was a 20 point underdog in 1996.

(12-01-2019 06:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Strange things happen sometimes. But if Clemson loses to Virginia, I'm pretty sure it would be the first time a 29-point favorite has lost in a conference championship game.

This is the problem for Clemson - ANY loss would be viewed as a bad loss because of the Vegas line (although, ironically, some computer models have Ohio State winning by a bigger margin over Wisconsin than Clemson over Virginia). It's mostly perception of course - college football usually is.

Ohio St., despite a weak looking ooc, could have played 3 conference champs, as all 3 are playing in ccgs-FAU in CUSA, Cincinnati in AAC and Miami in MAC. If they all win and OSU loses to Wisconsin, it would be 4. Probably not happened except maybe by Notre Dame in the last 30 years.

(12-01-2019 06:41 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 04:02 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Clemson is out with a loss, but that's like saying the roof of my house is gone if a meteor hits it.

And those two events are about equally likely.

A lot stranger things have happened in football.

First Big 12 ccg, Texas 37, Nebraska 27. Nebraska 94-97 was one of the greatest runs of all time and '95 Nebraska was perhaps the best team ever.

With Oregon and Minnesota losing, Clemson actually has a shot even if they do lose. They would need Oregon to beat Utah and LSU to beat UGA, but would have a pretty decent chance to get in if those two things happened.

Also the year Kansas St beat an Oklahoma team 35-7 that was receiving "greatest of all-time" hype. Never been more stunned at a CCG.

(12-02-2019 08:15 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 06:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Strange things happen sometimes. But if Clemson loses to Virginia, I'm pretty sure it would be the first time a 29-point favorite has lost in a conference championship game.

This is the problem for Clemson - ANY loss would be viewed as a bad loss because of the Vegas line (although, ironically, some computer models have Ohio State winning by a bigger margin over Wisconsin than Clemson over Virginia). It's mostly perception of course - college football usually is.

Another perception problem is that it would further tarnish the CFP committee to select a team that lost its CCG over a team that won its CCG, given the committee's already-violated promise to give great weight to conference championships.

If the committee cares about its own credibility -- and granted, they may not care -- then they would be reluctant to exclude one-loss teams that won their CCG in favor of teams that lost their CCG.

(12-03-2019 11:19 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-02-2019 08:15 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 06:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Strange things happen sometimes. But if Clemson loses to Virginia, I'm pretty sure it would be the first time a 29-point favorite has lost in a conference championship game.

This is the problem for Clemson - ANY loss would be viewed as a bad loss because of the Vegas line (although, ironically, some computer models have Ohio State winning by a bigger margin over Wisconsin than Clemson over Virginia). It's mostly perception of course - college football usually is.

Another perception problem is that it would further tarnish the CFP committee to select a team that lost its CCG over a team that won its CCG, given the committee's already-violated promise to give great weight to conference championships.

If the committee cares about its own credibility -- and granted, they may not care -- then they would be reluctant to exclude one-loss teams that won their CCG in favor of teams that lost their CCG.

TRUE... provided there are actually four such teams when the dust settles.

(12-05-2019 12:13 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 11:19 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-02-2019 08:15 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 06:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Strange things happen sometimes. But if Clemson loses to Virginia, I'm pretty sure it would be the first time a 29-point favorite has lost in a conference championship game.

This is the problem for Clemson - ANY loss would be viewed as a bad loss because of the Vegas line (although, ironically, some computer models have Ohio State winning by a bigger margin over Wisconsin than Clemson over Virginia). It's mostly perception of course - college football usually is.

Another perception problem is that it would further tarnish the CFP committee to select a team that lost its CCG over a team that won its CCG, given the committee's already-violated promise to give great weight to conference championships.

If the committee cares about its own credibility -- and granted, they may not care -- then they would be reluctant to exclude one-loss teams that won their CCG in favor of teams that lost their CCG.

TRUE... provided there are actually four such teams when the dust settles.

If LSU loses, there will be. LSU, Ohio St., Clemson, Georgia, OU/Baylor and possibly Utah. If Ohio St. loses and Utah wins, there will be.

8 teams...

This has been a year that demonstrates the need.