(10-27-2019 03:30 PM)Doggone Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:34 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:24 AM)bikechuck Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:21 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  While the win was very needed it felt like they reverted to the old offense. And though effective, it does little to build on the new offense they’re trying to install. I have no idea what we will see if Bowers is back next week. Mostly passing? Mostly running? Balanced?

The offensive game plan was dictated by the weather. You really do need a strong running game in the MAC when the Midwest weather turns foul in the latter third of the season.

I don’t really buy that. It takes strong winds to hinder a passing game. Light rain, snow or cold should not cause a team to abandon the pass. It’s not like Toledo doesn’t throw the ball in November. I think Childers starting had a much bigger impact on the commitment to run.

No but Toledo wilts in November. Last year they flat out quit when NIU was running it down their throats.

Toledo does not wilt! For years, they have had the top recruiting class in the MAC and one of the top in the entire country. Everyone knows that!

(10-27-2019 11:34 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:24 AM)bikechuck Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:21 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  While the win was very needed it felt like they reverted to the old offense. And though effective, it does little to build on the new offense they’re trying to install. I have no idea what we will see if Bowers is back next week. Mostly passing? Mostly running? Balanced?

The offensive game plan was dictated by the weather. You really do need a strong running game in the MAC when the Midwest weather turns foul in the latter third of the season.

I don’t really buy that. It takes strong winds to hinder a passing game. Light rain, snow or cold should not cause a team to abandon the pass. It’s not like Toledo doesn’t throw the ball in November. I think Childers starting had a much bigger impact on the commitment to run.

Rapid Sq. Were you at the game? While the wind was only 10 mph or so the rain never stopped. Every player on both sides were soaked. The balls were soaked, the field soaked, the ref's ball towels damp too.

After a while my motorcycle rain gear started leaking to my clothes underneath. The power of sustained wetness.

Both teams combined for 100 passing yards and NIU didn't need to pass to win.

Akron couldn't pass.

Maybe another rain game they will have to pass more, just not against Akron.

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Last year we had multiple games with a bunch of penalties. It wasn’t like the penalties crept up on us this year. Last year we had the same problem. They’ve limited the penalties in the last three games so good for the coaching staff.

(10-27-2019 04:54 PM)Teamduh Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:34 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:24 AM)bikechuck Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:21 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  While the win was very needed it felt like they reverted to the old offense. And though effective, it does little to build on the new offense they’re trying to install. I have no idea what we will see if Bowers is back next week. Mostly passing? Mostly running? Balanced?

The offensive game plan was dictated by the weather. You really do need a strong running game in the MAC when the Midwest weather turns foul in the latter third of the season.

I don’t really buy that. It takes strong winds to hinder a passing game. Light rain, snow or cold should not cause a team to abandon the pass. It’s not like Toledo doesn’t throw the ball in November. I think Childers starting had a much bigger impact on the commitment to run.

Rapid Sq. Were you at the game? While the wind was only 10 mph or so the rain never stopped. Every player on both sides were soaked. The balls were soaked, the field soaked, the ref's ball towels damp too.

After a while my motorcycle rain gear started leaking to my clothes underneath. The power of sustained wetness.

Both teams combined for 100 passing yards and NIU didn't need to pass to win.

Akron couldn't pass.

Maybe another rain game they will have to pass more, just not against Akron.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Unfortunately I had to work Saturday so I could not attend the game. But I work outside and felt the full brunt of the rain. I'm not saying the rain doesn't have some impact on play calling, but as fans we over react to weather conditions. There's enough data out there that shows mild weather has very little impact on offenses. It has to get to nearly extreme conditions to seriously alter what teams can do with the ball. Winds over 18 mph. Rain/snow heavy enough to restrict vision. Terrible footing from mud or ice.

So I'm sure the ball was wet and harder to hold, but they also rotate new, dry balls in and towel off the ball in play. You might throw 8-10 less passes than you normally would. But you don't go from 34 pass attempts a game to 8 because of a mild, steady rain. Just like you don't run 5 wide in October and then the wishbone in November due to precipitation.

If Hammock wants to run the ball 75% of the time...so be it. I just want him to figure out what this offense is suppose to look like. There may be other rainy games coming up where you don't have a 30 point lead and you need to throw. The pass game needs as much if not more work than the run game at this point.

So what are the chances that NIU wins the West. A simple way I could see is for NIU to win out and Ball State to lose 2 more games. What are the chances of that to happen

NIU win probabilities in last 4 games X probability of Ball State losing 2 games. Here are those 5:

CMU - 47%
Toledo - 42%
EMU - 65%
WMU - 54%
BSU losing 2 games - 65%

Comes out to about a 5% or 1 in 20 chance.

(10-27-2019 09:41 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  So what are the chances that NIU wins the West. A simple way I could see is for NIU to win out and Ball State to lose 2 more games. What are the chances of that to happen

NIU win probabilities in last 4 games X probability of Ball State losing 2 games. Here are those 5:

CMU - 47%
Toledo - 42%
EMU - 65%
WMU - 54%
BSU losing 2 games - 65%

Comes out to about a 5% or 1 in 20 chance.

Thx MD for putting this together. I do think Ball State has a chance to fall apart some. It would be great if the last two Nov. home games mean something related to winning the MAC West.

Thanks MD. Your stats always help fill some gaps and round out info.

Here's some not-so-good stats for the weather-challenged people (above):
Official attendance at the only 3 Saturday games we have this year: 33,960. Average: 11,320. Best was against IllSt at 14,568, so the total for BSU and Akron was 19,392 (average = 9,696).

Two games left are weekday nights. Ouch.

Still think the undercounted the ISU crowd. It seemed bigger than 14,000, and was loud.

(10-27-2019 07:05 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 04:54 PM)Teamduh Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:34 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:24 AM)bikechuck Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:21 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  While the win was very needed it felt like they reverted to the old offense. And though effective, it does little to build on the new offense they’re trying to install. I have no idea what we will see if Bowers is back next week. Mostly passing? Mostly running? Balanced?

The offensive game plan was dictated by the weather. You really do need a strong running game in the MAC when the Midwest weather turns foul in the latter third of the season.

I don’t really buy that. It takes strong winds to hinder a passing game. Light rain, snow or cold should not cause a team to abandon the pass. It’s not like Toledo doesn’t throw the ball in November. I think Childers starting had a much bigger impact on the commitment to run.

Rapid Sq. Were you at the game? While the wind was only 10 mph or so the rain never stopped. Every player on both sides were soaked. The balls were soaked, the field soaked, the ref's ball towels damp too.

After a while my motorcycle rain gear started leaking to my clothes underneath. The power of sustained wetness.

Both teams combined for 100 passing yards and NIU didn't need to pass to win.

Akron couldn't pass.

Maybe another rain game they will have to pass more, just not against Akron.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Unfortunately I had to work Saturday so I could not attend the game. But I work outside and felt the full brunt of the rain. I'm not saying the rain doesn't have some impact on play calling, but as fans we over react to weather conditions. There's enough data out there that shows mild weather has very little impact on offenses. It has to get to nearly extreme conditions to seriously alter what teams can do with the ball. Winds over 18 mph. Rain/snow heavy enough to restrict vision. Terrible footing from mud or ice.

So I'm sure the ball was wet and harder to hold, but they also rotate new, dry balls in and towel off the ball in play. You might throw 8-10 less passes than you normally would. But you don't go from 34 pass attempts a game to 8 because of a mild, steady rain. Just like you don't run 5 wide in October and then the wishbone in November due to precipitation.

If Hammock wants to run the ball 75% of the time...so be it. I just want him to figure out what this offense is suppose to look like. There may be other rainy games coming up where you don't have a 30 point lead and you need to throw. The pass game needs as much if not more work than the run game at this point.

The rain did affect things. Both teams had a QB unable to handle a simple snap, though both recovered it. NIU lost a fumble when the football looked like a greased pig. And WRs struggled a bit. I'm sure we would have thrown more if we had to, but it wasn't required. The next 4 games, it will be required.

(10-28-2019 08:41 AM)pvk75 Wrote:  Thanks MD. Your stats always help fill some gaps and round out info.

Here's some not-so-good stats for the weather-challenged people (above):
Official attendance at the only 3 Saturday games we have this year: 33,960. Average: 11,320. Best was against IllSt at 14,568, so the total for BSU and Akron was 19,392 (average = 9,696).

Two games left are weekday nights. Ouch.

We swiped every ticket we had just to help but really didn't move the needle. Too many people cancelled due to rain and others went to bars as rain started pregame.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

(10-28-2019 08:45 AM)Beach Boy Wrote:  Still think the undercounted the ISU crowd. It seemed bigger than 14,000, and was loud.

The ISU attendance # was absolutely undercounted because I know for a fact that they didn't scan my tickets. My phone wasn't getting any service while I was at the gate trying to enter so I couldn't pull up the actual tickets. I think I showed the ushers my confirmation email that I had took a screenshot of and they let me in...

Regardless, the rain and the schedule certainly haven't helped.

Regardless of the under-count(s), those are the stats that will go into the books. What irks me is that the impact of under-counting is stupid with malfunctioning technology that can/should be fixed. And the weather (and lousy start to the season) negated the hype and excitement generated by the Hammock/Bowers/new offense social media splurge. That won't be there next season.

NIU really needs to close out no worse than 5-7. According to MD's stats, we need a win in the next two and then one more. If the Huskies somehow manage to get 3 ... a bowl, any bowl.

Any news on Bowers and the concussion?

(10-28-2019 09:14 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 07:05 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 04:54 PM)Teamduh Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:34 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(10-27-2019 11:24 AM)bikechuck Wrote:  The offensive game plan was dictated by the weather. You really do need a strong running game in the MAC when the Midwest weather turns foul in the latter third of the season.

I don’t really buy that. It takes strong winds to hinder a passing game. Light rain, snow or cold should not cause a team to abandon the pass. It’s not like Toledo doesn’t throw the ball in November. I think Childers starting had a much bigger impact on the commitment to run.

Rapid Sq. Were you at the game? While the wind was only 10 mph or so the rain never stopped. Every player on both sides were soaked. The balls were soaked, the field soaked, the ref's ball towels damp too.

After a while my motorcycle rain gear started leaking to my clothes underneath. The power of sustained wetness.

Both teams combined for 100 passing yards and NIU didn't need to pass to win.

Akron couldn't pass.

Maybe another rain game they will have to pass more, just not against Akron.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Unfortunately I had to work Saturday so I could not attend the game. But I work outside and felt the full brunt of the rain. I'm not saying the rain doesn't have some impact on play calling, but as fans we over react to weather conditions. There's enough data out there that shows mild weather has very little impact on offenses. It has to get to nearly extreme conditions to seriously alter what teams can do with the ball. Winds over 18 mph. Rain/snow heavy enough to restrict vision. Terrible footing from mud or ice.

So I'm sure the ball was wet and harder to hold, but they also rotate new, dry balls in and towel off the ball in play. You might throw 8-10 less passes than you normally would. But you don't go from 34 pass attempts a game to 8 because of a mild, steady rain. Just like you don't run 5 wide in October and then the wishbone in November due to precipitation.

If Hammock wants to run the ball 75% of the time...so be it. I just want him to figure out what this offense is suppose to look like. There may be other rainy games coming up where you don't have a 30 point lead and you need to throw. The pass game needs as much if not more work than the run game at this point.

The rain did affect things. Both teams had a QB unable to handle a simple snap, though both recovered it. NIU lost a fumble when the football looked like a greased pig. And WRs struggled a bit. I'm sure we would have thrown more if we had to, but it wasn't required. The next 4 games, it will be required.

Believe me, it could have been 85, sunny, and wind blowing at their backs and Akron wouldn't have scored 10 points Saturday. That is one poor football team. If there are 130 teams, being generous they would top out at 128. (I don't know who the other two teams are, but, wow...they have a long way too go).