The Gators already have announced 2 non-con P5 opponents (including FSU every year) from 2020-2025, and from 2028-2031. Assuming there are no unannounced cancellations among those and no unannounced future P5 games, they're looking for 2026 and 2027, and 2032 and beyond.

Several "name" teams appear to have availability for 2026-2027, so the Gators shouldn't have trouble finding games for those years.

Also, the fact that Florida wants to make sure they have at least 2 P5 non-con games every year fits in with an observation made awhile back in an article that we talked about here: Teams are scheduling for the future on the assumption that there will be an 8-team playoff. Teams that hope to be contenders are going to want 10 or 11 P5 games, to have a schedule that looks good if they're under consideration for an at-large spot or for higher seeding in the playoff.

(10-22-2019 04:37 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

The Gators already have announced 2 non-con P5 opponents (including FSU every year) from 2020-2025, and from 2028-2031. Assuming there are no unannounced cancellations among those and no unannounced future P5 games, they're looking for 2026 and 2027, and 2032 and beyond.

Several "name" teams appear to have availability for 2026-2027, so the Gators shouldn't have trouble finding games for those years.

Also, the fact that Florida wants to make sure they have at least 2 P5 non-con games every year fits in with an observation made awhile back in an article that we talked about here: Teams are scheduling for the future on the assumption that there will be an 8-team playoff. Teams that hope to be contenders are going to want 10 or 11 P5 games, to have a schedule that looks good if they're under consideration for an at-large spot or for higher seeding in the playoff.

I wouldn't read expanded playoffs into this just yet. There is considerable talk about moving to 10P games and one route for the SEC which might serve them better than 9 conference games and 1 P game might be to keep 8 conference games and play 2 P games OOC. It may be that the SEC is leaning more in this direction.

Also if we ever do breakaway from the NCAA we might well be looking at all P games with no need to expand playoffs.

I think there needs to be a 10 P5 scheduling standard across the major conferences. I’d be interested to see what % of P5 vs G5/FCS games were won by the P5 by 14 points or more. There’s just too many pointless massacres out there

(10-22-2019 06:16 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think there needs to be a 10 P5 scheduling standard across the major conferences. I’d be interested to see what % of P5 vs G5/FCS games were won by the P5 by 14 points or more. There’s just too many pointless massacres out there

The issue here Muskie, for every conference, is the TV contracts. Every time one is negotiated you have to have a bargaining chip to secure any kind of a raise and the Commissioner's rely upon this to keep AD's happy.

As fans we want to see 10P games. AD's want the larger crowds because it makes the local merchants happy, it pleases donors, and the only ones it makes antsy are the coaches.

But the simple truth is almost every conference barters those kinds of perks to the networks judiciously.

I think it is one reason no conference jumped to 16 schools. Right now we are getting a bump with additions. With divisions that means you had to add two to keep things balanced for scheduling. So we went from 10 to 12, from 12 to 14, and likely will move to 16 next time around. Now with the Boomers exiting being part of the demographics after 2030 we may see more movement sooner rather than later.

So nobody's giving the networks 10P games until after they make additions. If they don't make additions they'll sell a 9th conference game first, or a 2nd OOC P game to move to 10. And they'll keep doing this dance until they are all P games but that won't happen until after the Spring Game is moved to August and becomes a pre-season game.

Now that latter move pleases local merchants because an August pre season game will be the guaranteed 7th home game, it will be played at night because of the heat of the day, and that means the hotels get booked, the restaurants filled, and bookstores sell a ton of team crap before the season really gets started. So I think this will eventually happen.

If we add 2 more schools by 2024-5 then this gets bumped back 6 to 10 years because if you give the networks too much at once you don't glean as much out of them. So AD's and commissioners aren't going to jump to the end game. They are going to milk it concession by concession.

But I don't think there's much left to barter. 2 additions is one. 10 P games is another. And with the movement of the Spring Game to a pre-season game (which helps networks in the dead weeks of August) then it paves the way for 12 P games. So the next three contract periods will probably put us there, but it's not happening all at once. And it has nothing to do with what fans want. It has everything to do with how the schools can optimize each media renewal.

(10-22-2019 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  But I don't think there's much left to barter. 2 additions is one. 10 P games is another. And with the movement of the Spring Game to a pre-season game (which helps networks in the dead weeks of August) then it paves the way for 12 P games. So the next three contract periods will probably put us there, but it's not happening all at once. And it has nothing to do with what fans want. It has everything to do with how the schools can optimize each media renewal.

TV wants "more" every time there's a change, to keep the viewership levels up or at least slow the decline. The push for more "P" games is driven by the fact that even the biggest name programs draw far smaller audiences for a non-con game against Eastern Michigan than one against Michigan. If TV offers enough money, conferences will even play 10 conference games.

A larger playoff makes moves like these even more likely, because if teams can get into the playoff with 3 losses, they won't hesitate so much to play 11 or 12 P5 games every year.

(10-22-2019 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 06:16 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think there needs to be a 10 P5 scheduling standard across the major conferences. I’d be interested to see what % of P5 vs G5/FCS games were won by the P5 by 14 points or more. There’s just too many pointless massacres out there

The issue here Muskie, for every conference, is the TV contracts. Every time one is negotiated you have to have a bargaining chip to secure any kind of a raise and the Commissioner's rely upon this to keep AD's happy.

As fans we want to see 10P games. AD's want the larger crowds because it makes the local merchants happy, it pleases donors, and the only ones it makes antsy are the coaches.

But the simple truth is almost every conference barters those kinds of perks to the networks judiciously...

...it has nothing to do with what fans want. It has everything to do with how the schools can optimize each media renewal.

You make some excellent points here, JR, but I think you may have overstated one thing: I wouldn't say that what fans want doesn't matter when 1/3 of revenue is still from tickets (sales of which have started to decline in recent years - probably the short-term motivation for the Florida AD, I imagine).

Long-term, no doubt about it: headed toward 12 P games, one step at a time...

(10-22-2019 08:42 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 06:16 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think there needs to be a 10 P5 scheduling standard across the major conferences. I’d be interested to see what % of P5 vs G5/FCS games were won by the P5 by 14 points or more. There’s just too many pointless massacres out there

The issue here Muskie, for every conference, is the TV contracts. Every time one is negotiated you have to have a bargaining chip to secure any kind of a raise and the Commissioner's rely upon this to keep AD's happy.

As fans we want to see 10P games. AD's want the larger crowds because it makes the local merchants happy, it pleases donors, and the only ones it makes antsy are the coaches.

But the simple truth is almost every conference barters those kinds of perks to the networks judiciously...

...it has nothing to do with what fans want. It has everything to do with how the schools can optimize each media renewal.

You make some excellent points here, JR, but I think you may have overstated one thing: I wouldn't say that what fans want doesn't matter when 1/3 of revenue is still from tickets (sales of which have started to decline in recent years - probably the short-term motivation for the Florida AD, I imagine).

Long-term, no doubt about it: headed toward 12 P games, one step at a time...

There are always multiple perspectives and they are each unique and don't necessarily blend. For commissioners its getting that raise and doing so in a way where they have some chips still in their pockets for the next time around. For the Networks it's all about maximizing ratings to maximize ad revenue and brand on brand does that. For the AD's it's about more money, but also about donor happiness, and ticket holder happiness which are also impacted by on field success which does not always coincide with playing better brands, although both the donors and fans want it. For the president it's about making more money without having the normal academic schedule impacted.

So yes for the AD's it's about more than just the TV money. But for the commissioners and networks it's about more money with a higher quality schedule and better ad rates.

(10-22-2019 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 06:16 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think there needs to be a 10 P5 scheduling standard across the major conferences. I’d be interested to see what % of P5 vs G5/FCS games were won by the P5 by 14 points or more. There’s just too many pointless massacres out there

The issue here Muskie, for every conference, is the TV contracts. Every time one is negotiated you have to have a bargaining chip to secure any kind of a raise and the Commissioner's rely upon this to keep AD's happy.

As fans we want to see 10P games. AD's want the larger crowds because it makes the local merchants happy, it pleases donors, and the only ones it makes antsy are the coaches.

But the simple truth is almost every conference barters those kinds of perks to the networks judiciously.

I think it is one reason no conference jumped to 16 schools. Right now we are getting a bump with additions. With divisions that means you had to add two to keep things balanced for scheduling. So we went from 10 to 12, from 12 to 14, and likely will move to 16 next time around. Now with the Boomers exiting being part of the demographics after 2030 we may see more movement sooner rather than later.

So nobody's giving the networks 10P games until after they make additions. If they don't make additions they'll sell a 9th conference game first, or a 2nd OOC P game to move to 10. And they'll keep doing this dance until they are all P games but that won't happen until after the Spring Game is moved to August and becomes a pre-season game.

Now that latter move pleases local merchants because an August pre season game will be the guaranteed 7th home game, it will be played at night because of the heat of the day, and that means the hotels get booked, the restaurants filled, and bookstores sell a ton of team crap before the season really gets started. So I think this will eventually happen.

If we add 2 more schools by 2024-5 then this gets bumped back 6 to 10 years because if you give the networks too much at once you don't glean as much out of them. So AD's and commissioners aren't going to jump to the end game. They are going to milk it concession by concession.

But I don't think there's much left to barter. 2 additions is one. 10 P games is another. And with the movement of the Spring Game to a pre-season game (which helps networks in the dead weeks of August) then it paves the way for 12 P games. So the next three contract periods will probably put us there, but it's not happening all at once. And it has nothing to do with what fans want. It has everything to do with how the schools can optimize each media renewal.

I would add that there is one additional chip that could be played and it is one with a little extra life to it.

The threat of greater consolidation.

Networks would absolutely hate it if the major conferences pooled their rights. They like pitting the leagues against each other because it helps the bottom line. The more that the conferences move towards a "pro" model where one entity is negotiating then the less leverage networks will have.

I'm not entirely convinced every major conference would love to go that route, but the threat itself could squeeze a little extra cash out while maintaining the status quo as far as how the game is administered.

The Clemson and Texas ADs have already responded to say they're interested in series with Florida...

(10-22-2019 04:37 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

The Gators already have announced 2 non-con P5 opponents (including FSU every year) from 2020-2025, and from 2028-2031. Assuming there are no unannounced cancellations among those and no unannounced future P5 games, they're looking for 2026 and 2027, and 2032 and beyond.

Several "name" teams appear to have availability for 2026-2027, so the Gators shouldn't have trouble finding games for those years.

Also, the fact that Florida wants to make sure they have at least 2 P5 non-con games every year fits in with an observation made awhile back in an article that we talked about here: Teams are scheduling for the future on the assumption that there will be an 8-team playoff. Teams that hope to be contenders are going to want 10 or 11 P5 games, to have a schedule that looks good if they're under consideration for an at-large spot or for higher seeding in the playoff.

I think internal revenues are more a factor. #1 fan interest. Even the SEC schools are starting to feel a lessening of enthusiasm. #2 is TV ratings, although that is a bigger factor for the Pac 12, Big 12 and Big 10 who have their whole contracts coming up sooner than the SEC and ACC.

Where's the Miami AD?
Shouldn't that have been the first one to call?

(10-23-2019 11:04 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Where's the Miami AD?
Shouldn't that have been the first one to call?

They already have a series lined up for '24 and '25.

It's a great series, but Florida is already playing one in-state rival annually. I imagine they would rather get some attention in other parts of the country.

(10-22-2019 06:16 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think there needs to be a 10 P5 scheduling standard across the major conferences. I’d be interested to see what % of P5 vs G5/FCS games were won by the P5 by 14 points or more. There’s just too many pointless massacres out there

The problem is there are about 18 or so schools in the P5 who will be damaged by that, their chances of a happy fan base going to the Payless Shoe Bowl at 6-6 drop dramatically if they have to toughen up the schedule.

For the wealthiest programs tickets, donations, and sponsorships are the real money and losing won't deliver that money.

(10-28-2019 12:38 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  The problem is there are about 18 or so schools in the P5 who will be damaged by that, their chances of a happy fan base going to the Payless Shoe Bowl at 6-6 drop dramatically if they have to toughen up the schedule.

The bowl games all want to stay in business. ESPN also wants them all to stay in business, because they all deliver good ratings relative to ESPN's cost.

Example: Last year there was only one bowl game involving two 6-6 P5 teams, Baylor vs. Vanderbilt. It had a viewing audience of more than 3 million, and was the second most watched program on any non-broadcast channel that day (another bowl game was first). (source)

If the requirement of a .500 record ever got in the way of those bowls, the requirement would just be eliminated.

(10-28-2019 10:36 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(10-28-2019 12:38 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  The problem is there are about 18 or so schools in the P5 who will be damaged by that, their chances of a happy fan base going to the Payless Shoe Bowl at 6-6 drop dramatically if they have to toughen up the schedule.

The bowl games all want to stay in business. ESPN also wants them all to stay in business, because they all deliver good ratings relative to ESPN's cost.

Example: Last year there was only one bowl game involving two 6-6 P5 teams, Baylor vs. Vanderbilt. It had a viewing audience of more than 3 million, and was the second most watched program on any non-broadcast channel that day (another bowl game was first). (source)

If the requirement of a .500 record ever got in the way of those bowls, the requirement would just be eliminated.

We've had sub .500s and they don't sell tickets generally. TV doesn't care but the bowl sites do.

But turning 6-6 and 7-5 seasons into 5-7 seasons not going to bolster ticket sales nor donations

This move by the Florida AD would seem to thwart any move by the SEC to go to 9 conference games.

Personally, I think bringing the Miami rivalry would be a good move for Gainesville. It helps keep other blue bloods from sniffing around their recruiting territory, the Gators will probably win 3 out 4 games or better, and they will likely have a third of the crowd at the away games.

(10-28-2019 08:17 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  This move by the Florida AD would seem to thwart any move by the SEC to go to 9 conference games.

Personally, I think bringing the Miami rivalry would be a good move for Gainesville. It helps keep other blue bloods from sniffing around their recruiting territory, the Gators will probably win 3 out 4 games or better, and they will likely have a third of the crowd at the away games.

Nah, those contracts have special conditions escape clauses. If the SEC moves to 9 conference games they'll back out of one of those. If expansion occurs that might be an out. But if the SEC remains as is and plays an 8 game schedule they'll honor it.

Here’s a 2019 snapshot of the average number of regular season P games played by each conference:

Big 12: 10.00
PAC 12: 9.83
Big 10: 9.64
ACC: 9.36
SEC: 9.07

It would seem that 3 of the 5 conferences are already playing closer to 10 games than 9. The Big 10 is usually much closer to 10 but a few schools are counting select AAC/MWC teams towards their league mandated 10 P5s requirement. I suspect, based on the scheduling needs of UK, Fla, UGA, and S Car, that it won’t be in the form of a 9th conference game but rather a generic 10 P guideline.

The SEC will hopefully join that club but if JR is correct, they are going to demand more tv money to do it.

(10-29-2019 08:19 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s a 2019 snapshot of the average number of regular season P games played by each conference:

Big 12: 10.00
PAC 12: 9.83
Big 10: 9.64
ACC: 9.36
SEC: 9.07

It would seem that 3 of the 5 conferences are already playing closer to 10 games than 9. The Big 10 is usually much closer to 10 but a few schools are counting select AAC/MWC teams towards their league mandated 10 P5s requirement. I suspect, based on the scheduling needs of UK, Fla, UGA, and S Car, that it won’t be in the form of a 9th conference game but rather a generic 10 P guideline.

The SEC will hopefully join that club but if JR is correct, they are going to demand more tv money to do it.

The ACC discussed making 10 P5 games a conference requirement (i.e. 8 ACC + 2 P5 OOC), but some of the ADs claimed that they could find two P5 teams willing to schedule OOC every year... of course, that was a few years ago - things may have changed since then. Personally, I'd like to see it happen.

# true* P5 OOC games per ACC team:
2020: 1.36 (5 teams with two P5s, 9 with only one)
2021: 1.57 (8 teams with two, 6 with only one, one of those has an opening)
* includes Notre Dame

I wanted to calculate 2022 and 2023, but there were too many open dates remaining.

(10-23-2019 11:04 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 04:37 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

The Gators already have announced 2 non-con P5 opponents (including FSU every year) from 2020-2025, and from 2028-2031. Assuming there are no unannounced cancellations among those and no unannounced future P5 games, they're looking for 2026 and 2027, and 2032 and beyond.

Several "name" teams appear to have availability for 2026-2027, so the Gators shouldn't have trouble finding games for those years.

Also, the fact that Florida wants to make sure they have at least 2 P5 non-con games every year fits in with an observation made awhile back in an article that we talked about here: Teams are scheduling for the future on the assumption that there will be an 8-team playoff. Teams that hope to be contenders are going to want 10 or 11 P5 games, to have a schedule that looks good if they're under consideration for an at-large spot or for higher seeding in the playoff.

I think internal revenues are more a factor. #1 fan interest. Even the SEC schools are starting to feel a lessening of enthusiasm. #2 is TV ratings, although that is a bigger factor for the Pac 12, Big 12 and Big 10 who have their whole contracts coming up sooner than the SEC and ACC.

CBS is coming up in 2023-4 for the SEC. CBS has indicated a desire for more games. How do you get that with ESPN buying up T2 rights to the SEC? Expansion. Expansion also means more P Games. And since CBS is T1 only swapping 1 T3 game for another P game gives both CBS and ESPN more T1 and T2 games to broadcast. Expansion helps to cover the inventory lost for the SECN as that's 4 more T3 games to cover the loss of 14. And not all T2 games get picked up and adding two schools increases that inventory by 8 games if you consider each new addition will be limited to 3 T1 appearances which is the ceiling per school in appearances on CBS annually. So if two new additions add 24 games and 6 could be T1 and 4 will likely be T3 that leaves 14 more games that are likely to be broadcasted by ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, or ESPNU. Let's say they pick up 6 of those, with the 8 remaining the NET inventory for SECN after two additions is 12 games or a NET loss of 2 games for the season. T1 pays more. T2 pays more. And 2 added fan bases to the T3 more than covers the loss of 2 events.

Therein lies the motivation for expansion whether you are the SEC, Big 10, or ACC. With the PAC the motivation would be expanding into a new time slot which increases the value of their existing inventory and the increased inventory from additions.

If nothing happens in the way of realignment the SEC needs to play an additional P Game to increase its inventory of T1 and T2 and that money has to cover the loss of inventory to the SECN. More basketball could help in this regard, but it wouldn't make up the difference.

Folks on this board like to pine for the days of 10 and 12 member conferences. The reason those days will not happen again is the residual market model for T3 rights, and the need to increase the inventory of T1 and T2 games for payout increases for the content driven games which attract more ad money.

Since these models aren't changing the drive toward expansion remains. In short we are going to get larger and not smaller.

Adding to the complexity is this afternoon's announcement from the NCAA that players are entitled to the rights from their images. This is going to open an interesting period where some schools will have to ponder their futures in P conferences.