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UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
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mturn017 Online
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Post: #21
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
(10-22-2019 02:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  ODU seems the front runner. UAB is no where on that list because their football program is not safe. Marshall is too small of a tv market to add. UAB and MRSHll is not even on the AAC's radar.

There it is. Shut it down. No more need for speculation.
10-22-2019 07:49 AM
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kevinwmsn Offline
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Post: #22
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
UAB won't get into a new stadium till 2021. They are still in Legion Field.
10-22-2019 07:59 AM
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whittx Offline
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Post: #23
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
(10-22-2019 07:29 AM)panama Wrote:  
(10-22-2019 07:14 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I do think UAB ends up being #12, but I wholeheartedly agree that the AAC should wait out it’s waiver period and see what the potential candidates end up doing. I cannot envision Army, Air Force, Boise State or BYU (each whom should be considered top candidates) coming.

Personally, I am confused why there is so much resistance to a UAB but general acceptance to a Colorado State. UAB is in a better football recruiting area, both have new state of art stadiums, UAB has more successful basketball history, both are on same tier in national academic rankings and UAB is within the AAC footprint (which is already spread out as is). Colorado State would force a team west, where UAB wouldn’t, assuming divisions are kept of course.
Assume certain things all things being equal.

#12 ...

Will look culturally like the majority of the schools in the conference. Presidents decide and they like things they can quantify and understand. Most of the schools are city school large research universities or city school privates. The majority are Carnegie and USNWR Tier I.

Will not be a western school. They will all have their individual reasons but you can summarize it as the money is not there to justify leaving rivals behind and to increase travel. Ask yourself, will school X's fans care about seeing a home game against school Y from two timezones or 3000 miles away.

Will not be in a city or state with a current member. This would seem to be obvious.

Will not be a Service Academy. One is comfortable in Independence and the other is a Western school. If that theory had legs and there was mutual interest we wouldnt be having this discussion. They would have been added the day after UConn announced.



When you take that and maybe a couple of other obvious factors into account you can quickly come up with a short list.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

So Buffalo is on the short list?
10-22-2019 08:00 AM
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49RFootballNow Online
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Post: #24
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
See you former and future conference mates again soon.
10-22-2019 08:09 AM
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ghostofclt! Offline
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Post: #25
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-fo...c-expands/

clt says we would settle for aac if the sec doesn't happen soon
10-22-2019 08:28 AM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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Post: #26
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
(10-22-2019 07:59 AM)kevinwmsn Wrote:  UAB won't get into a new stadium till 2021. They are still in Legion Field.

And this means what?
10-22-2019 08:36 AM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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Post: #27
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
(10-22-2019 02:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  UAB is no where on that list because their football program is not safe.

Safe? Like located in a safe area of the city safe?
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2019 08:39 AM by HiddenDragon.)
10-22-2019 08:38 AM
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Chappy Offline
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Post: #28
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
We should wait for the MWC TV deal to be announced before we rule out any MWC teams.
10-22-2019 08:49 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Online
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Post: #29
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
(10-22-2019 07:29 AM)panama Wrote:  
(10-22-2019 07:14 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I do think UAB ends up being #12, but I wholeheartedly agree that the AAC should wait out it’s waiver period and see what the potential candidates end up doing. I cannot envision Army, Air Force, Boise State or BYU (each whom should be considered top candidates) coming.

Personally, I am confused why there is so much resistance to a UAB but general acceptance to a Colorado State. UAB is in a better football recruiting area, both have new state of art stadiums, UAB has more successful basketball history, both are on same tier in national academic rankings and UAB is within the AAC footprint (which is already spread out as is). Colorado State would force a team west, where UAB wouldn’t, assuming divisions are kept of course.
Assume certain things all things being equal.

#12 ...

Will look culturally like the majority of the schools in the conference. Presidents decide and they like things they can quantify and understand. Most of the schools are city school large research universities or city school privates. The majority are Carnegie and USNWR Tier I.

Will not be a western school. They will all have their individual reasons but you can summarize it as the money is not there to justify leaving rivals behind and to increase travel. Ask yourself, will school X's fans care about seeing a home game against school Y from two timezones or 3000 miles away.

Will not be in a city or state with a current member. This would seem to be obvious.

Will not be a Service Academy. One is comfortable in Independence and the other is a Western school. If that theory had legs and there was mutual interest we wouldnt be having this discussion. They would have been added the day after UConn announced.



When you take that and maybe a couple of other obvious factors into account you can quickly come up with a short list.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

That leaves:

UAB
Georgia Southern
Old Dominion

Realignment has historically shown a consistent ladder of movement, especially new(er) programs that are building their way up the chain. I, personally, would be surprised to see a program from the Sun Belt immediately get called up to the American. History has shown that there would need to be period of time in C-USA first that would precipitate an AAC invitation.

For example, Louisville went from being an Independent, to C-USA, to the Big East (and briefly the AAC) to the ACC. With the exception to Temple and Navy, every football member has had a stop in C-USA. I would guess if there ever was a 12th member in the AAC, it would probably come from C-USA.
10-22-2019 09:00 AM
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Chappy Offline
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Post: #30
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
C-USA is not the step up from the Sun Belt that it used to be.
10-22-2019 09:14 AM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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Post: #31
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
(10-22-2019 09:14 AM)Chappy Wrote:  C-USA is not the step up from the Sun Belt that it used to be.

Nope. Not even close to what it used to be.
10-22-2019 10:11 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #32
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
No they won't.
10-22-2019 10:15 AM
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bluesox Offline
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Post: #33
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
I would agree UAB should be #12 and the AAC should also be interested in jumping to 14 with 2 from BYU, Afa, and Army as football only. Also like 2 hoop only invites to Dayton and VCU.
10-22-2019 10:26 AM
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YNot Online
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Post: #34
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
UAB has a lot going for it, including a decent location that bridges the western and southeastern parts of the conference. But, like it or not, UAB is not and has never really been nationally relevant. You can't unpack that reality. And, it would support the perception that the AAC is merely a G5 conference and just the latest C-USA 2.0 iteration.

UAB would need to make a couple of runs at the NY6 bowl to even be in the conversation, outside of message boards and fan forums, because in today's CFB climate that is the only way for a G5 to be nationally relevant.

The AAC needs to make a power move and add a team or teams with real brand equity. The next best alternative is to stay at 11 and figure out things from there. A viable option could still be to get the waiver extended beyond 2021.
10-22-2019 10:38 AM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #35
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
Alabama and Auburn will never let UAB become relevant. Total nonstarter.
10-22-2019 10:46 AM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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Post: #36
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
(10-22-2019 10:38 AM)YNot Wrote:  But, like it or not, UAB is not and has never really been nationally relevant. You can't unpack that reality.

Well this is certainly not true. Just check Google. And lets be clear, you didn't say what UAB has never been or will never be relevant in.

Here is a reality you can't unpack, BYU Football will never be on the level of Utah Football.
10-22-2019 11:25 AM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #37
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
(10-22-2019 07:14 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I do think UAB ends up being #12, but I wholeheartedly agree that the AAC should wait out it’s waiver period and see what the potential candidates end up doing. I cannot envision Army, Air Force, Boise State or BYU (each whom should be considered top candidates) coming.

Personally, I am confused why there is so much resistance to a UAB but general acceptance to a Colorado State. UAB is in a better football recruiting area, both have new state of art stadiums, UAB has more successful basketball history, both are on same tier in national academic rankings and UAB is within the AAC footprint (which is already spread out as is). Colorado State would force a team west, where UAB wouldn’t, assuming divisions are kept of course.

Honestly, most of the CUSA schools have shared a conference with UAB. I was happy and rooted for them when they were able to bring their program back. That said, they are in a good place that fits them now. They have a ceiling on their program thats fairly low. Budget, Board stewardship, and support (only 19,511 showed up to last Saturdays game---for the reigning CUSA champ who is now 6-1) seem to conspire to limit what UAB can be. I dont know the reason---maybe Bama just sucks all the air out of Birmingham---I just can see UAB isnt the right fit.

Frankly, there is a reason the AAC hasnt replaced UConn. There isnt an obvious candidate. The AAC lost a basketball elite when UConn left (though they underperformed for much of their short AAC stay). Still, it will tough to replace UConn basketball. On the other hand, losing UConn football actually gives the league a chance to improve the football product.

Unfortunately, there is no single "full member" candidate that can offer high quality football and high quality basketball. As best I can see, the AAC's got 3 options.

1) Settle on a full member that falls short on one of these 2 key attributes---quality football performance and quality basketball performance.

2) Split the invite into "football only" and "non-football" invites. This allows the conference to add a high quality basketball program (say VCU) and a traditionally high performing football program (S Miss, Appy St, La Tech, Marshall, etc). Basically, this option allows the AAC to create the perfect candidate for #12 out of thin air.

3) If the 2 year waiver expires, no rule change is passed, and the candidate landscape still looks as bleak as it does today, then just suck it up and play 2-games against the same team for a while in an uneven division configuration. The scheduling woes are just temporary--being stuck with a new unwanted member is PERMANENT. If the conference is patient, eventually, either a suitable new member candidate will emerge or the conference will lose a member to get down to a more "scheduling friendly" 10 members. Either way, time will cure the issue.

Right now, I'd opt for #2 or #3.
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2019 11:36 AM by Attackcoog.)
10-22-2019 11:26 AM
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Post: #38
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
(10-22-2019 10:46 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Alabama and Auburn will never let UAB become relevant. Total nonstarter.

Neither school would have any issue with UAB moving up in the world. Technically, Auburn wouldn't even be able to influence it unless we're talking about a move to the SEC. In that case, you're correct that neither school would allow that.

The UA Board of Trustees position has always been that they would not subsidize UAB athletics. In other words, if UAB was to move up in the world then they would have to find the funding organically.

The City of Birmingham has now come along and decided to build a modern stadium rather than continuing to allow Legion Field to rot. I think that's a good move for them and it helps UAB out at the same time. The UA Board of Trustees has also stated that they would support UAB moving into the AAC.

I don't know how likely it is that move happens, but the BOT will not hinder UAB.
10-22-2019 11:33 AM
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YNot Online
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Post: #39
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
(10-22-2019 11:25 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  
(10-22-2019 10:38 AM)YNot Wrote:  But, like it or not, UAB is not and has never really been nationally relevant. You can't unpack that reality.
Well this is certainly not true. Just check Google. And lets be clear, you didn't say what UAB has never been or will never be relevant in.

......

Football. Is not and hasn't been. Did I miss a season where they were a real contender for a BCS or NY6 bowl game?

I did not say will never be...that was my point. UAB would need to first become more relevant in football for the AAC to give them consideration.
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2019 11:52 AM by YNot.)
10-22-2019 11:49 AM
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Auburn_Blazer Online
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Post: #40
RE: UAB will be AAC 12th FB member
(10-22-2019 10:46 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Alabama and Auburn will never let UAB become relevant. Total nonstarter.

It's a little late for that one. Alabama tried to put the nail in the coffin, but it totally backfired.
10-22-2019 11:50 AM
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