(10-22-2019 12:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 12:17 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(10-21-2019 11:42 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  App I think is a very good football team, and if they go undefeated it's an amazing accomplishment that in a fair world should get them a major bowl game. However, I highly suspect that a 1 loss AAC champ regardless of whether that's SMU, Cincy, Memphis, or Navy (obviously they would have to beat ND) would have a great case as well and it would be quite honestly a shame if that team didn't get a major bowl. Realistically if Clemson makes the playoff there a decent shot an unranked kinda bad team from the ACC is going to get the Orange Bowl while you could easily have an undefeated App State or 1 loss AAC champ or 1 loss Boise that is a clearly better team going to some completely trash game. That's the system we have.

If both SMU and Appalachian State finish the season undefeated, there's a better-than-snowball's chance that they play each other in the Cotton Bowl.

I could see both ranked in the CFP top-12, if undefeated. They still wouldn't control their own destinies, but it could play out that way.

Both would have to be in the top 10 to have any shot really. I mean right now, Cotton Bowl at large team would be #9.

I guess I'm assuming that a couple of the SEC heavyweights get knocked out of and the PAC 12 champ jumps into the top-10. Even then, you probably need a couple more games to fall your way, like Clemson taking the ACC's Orange Bowl slot (not CFP) and Notre Dame losing.

(10-22-2019 12:17 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(10-21-2019 11:42 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  App I think is a very good football team, and if they go undefeated it's an amazing accomplishment that in a fair world should get them a major bowl game. However, I highly suspect that a 1 loss AAC champ regardless of whether that's SMU, Cincy, Memphis, or Navy (obviously they would have to beat ND) would have a great case as well and it would be quite honestly a shame if that team didn't get a major bowl. Realistically if Clemson makes the playoff there a decent shot an unranked kinda bad team from the ACC is going to get the Orange Bowl while you could easily have an undefeated App State or 1 loss AAC champ or 1 loss Boise that is a clearly better team going to some completely trash game. That's the system we have.

If both SMU and Appalachian State finish the season undefeated, there's a better-than-snowball's chance that they play each other in the Cotton Bowl.

I could see both ranked in the CFP top-12, if undefeated. They still wouldn't control their own destinies, but it could play out that way.

There is a below snowballs chance in hell of that happening.

(10-22-2019 12:48 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 12:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 12:17 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(10-21-2019 11:42 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  App I think is a very good football team, and if they go undefeated it's an amazing accomplishment that in a fair world should get them a major bowl game. However, I highly suspect that a 1 loss AAC champ regardless of whether that's SMU, Cincy, Memphis, or Navy (obviously they would have to beat ND) would have a great case as well and it would be quite honestly a shame if that team didn't get a major bowl. Realistically if Clemson makes the playoff there a decent shot an unranked kinda bad team from the ACC is going to get the Orange Bowl while you could easily have an undefeated App State or 1 loss AAC champ or 1 loss Boise that is a clearly better team going to some completely trash game. That's the system we have.

If both SMU and Appalachian State finish the season undefeated, there's a better-than-snowball's chance that they play each other in the Cotton Bowl.

I could see both ranked in the CFP top-12, if undefeated. They still wouldn't control their own destinies, but it could play out that way.

Both would have to be in the top 10 to have any shot really. I mean right now, Cotton Bowl at large team would be #9.

I guess I'm assuming that a couple of the SEC heavyweights get knocked out of and the PAC 12 champ jumps into the top-10. Even then, you probably need a couple more games to fall your way, like Clemson taking the ACC's Orange Bowl slot (not CFP) and Notre Dame losing.

A pretty big game this weekend is the Notre Dame/Michigan game. ACC fans are rooting big time for Notre Dame. A ND loss and it pretty much guarantees the Orange doesn't get Notre Dame this year again.

Posted elsewhere that a second G5 team is competing against the 4th best BT/SEC/ND team outside the playoff (assuming the B12, P12, and ACC each place <2 in the #5-#12 range).

Right now there are 12! BT/SEC/ND teams ranked ahead of App St, so there is still a long way to go for a G5-G5 Cotton Bowl.

It is much more likely that every team in the top five of this analysis will lose a game between now and then.

(10-22-2019 03:05 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Posted elsewhere that a second G5 team is competing against the 4th best BT/SEC/ND team outside the playoff (assuming the B12, P12, and ACC each place <2 in the #5-#12 range).

Right now there are 12! BT/SEC/ND teams ranked ahead of App St, so there is still a long way to go for a G5-G5 Cotton Bowl.

No doubt, but those P5 teams likely have tough games in front of them, whereas App State doesn't, so an App State could rise by attrition.

(10-23-2019 12:26 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 03:05 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Posted elsewhere that a second G5 team is competing against the 4th best BT/SEC/ND team outside the playoff (assuming the B12, P12, and ACC each place <2 in the #5-#12 range).

Right now there are 12! BT/SEC/ND teams ranked ahead of App St, so there is still a long way to go for a G5-G5 Cotton Bowl.

No doubt, but those P5 teams likely have tough games in front of them, whereas App State doesn't, so an App State could rise by attrition.

yeah, but no where near enough....

(10-20-2019 04:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:28 PM)fresnofanatic Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lol. Boise isn't ahead of Cincy right now. And frankly when we see the committee, it wouldn't be a surprise if Memphis isn't ahead of them as well...

And I seriously doubt App St is #2. They have 1, I repeat 1 win over a team better than .500. And that was Louisiana. And they have only 1 game left with a team over .500- Georgia St..

Appalachian State vs Cincy...

1). @P5 win > vs P5 win at home
2). Computers are close except espn FPI agrees with you quite a bit
3). Human polls close

4). App’s @South Carolina is huge...we shall see. You may or may not have a point. I have no idea until the games are played and the season done and CCGs played.

5). But wait! Undefeated is very hard to do no matter record of opponents. App’s opponents not as bad as you portrayed.

You want me to take away App’s 130 point bonus for being undefeated? Moves Boise to 2nd, Cincy still 4th. I ain’t budging. App is very good and so are Cincy and Boise. Appalachian making up for whatever you diss them on with bigger wins vs P5 and nearly as much love from computers and humans as Cincy.

You say South Carolina. Beating Memphis FAR better than beating South Carolina.

App's opponents ARE that bad. 1 win vs a winning team. That's something that the committee looks at heavily.

Right now Sagarin SOS. Cincy 44 App St 128... Something else that the committee looks at....

Sorry if the final in the AAC was Cincy vs SMU. With SMU only losing once before there- and Cincy winning out- the winner of that game is your G5 rep no matter what anyone else does.....

Look, there's a long way to go left in the season. But if App walks into an SEC stadium and gets a win late in the season, there should be 0 doubt in your mind that the committee will weigh that very heavily.

(10-22-2019 12:30 AM)Goronic Wrote:  I do think a 1 loss AAC team gets in over an undefeated App State team. Unless....App State would need a blowout wn against South Carolina (like 21+ points). That would be too much positive attention for App State, coupled with a 13-0 record, to ignore.

However, they would have to go with an undefeated App State over a 2 loss AAC team.

(10-24-2019 02:15 PM)iStoopify Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:28 PM)fresnofanatic Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lol. Boise isn't ahead of Cincy right now. And frankly when we see the committee, it wouldn't be a surprise if Memphis isn't ahead of them as well...

And I seriously doubt App St is #2. They have 1, I repeat 1 win over a team better than .500. And that was Louisiana. And they have only 1 game left with a team over .500- Georgia St..

Appalachian State vs Cincy...

1). @P5 win > vs P5 win at home
2). Computers are close except espn FPI agrees with you quite a bit
3). Human polls close

4). App’s @South Carolina is huge...we shall see. You may or may not have a point. I have no idea until the games are played and the season done and CCGs played.

5). But wait! Undefeated is very hard to do no matter record of opponents. App’s opponents not as bad as you portrayed.

You want me to take away App’s 130 point bonus for being undefeated? Moves Boise to 2nd, Cincy still 4th. I ain’t budging. App is very good and so are Cincy and Boise. Appalachian making up for whatever you diss them on with bigger wins vs P5 and nearly as much love from computers and humans as Cincy.

You say South Carolina. Beating Memphis FAR better than beating South Carolina.

App's opponents ARE that bad. 1 win vs a winning team. That's something that the committee looks at heavily.

Right now Sagarin SOS. Cincy 44 App St 128... Something else that the committee looks at....

Sorry if the final in the AAC was Cincy vs SMU. With SMU only losing once before there- and Cincy winning out- the winner of that game is your G5 rep no matter what anyone else does.....

Look, there's a long way to go left in the season. But if App walks into an SEC stadium and gets a win late in the season, there should be 0 doubt in your mind that the committee will weigh that very heavily.

I see this to be a true statement. We observers who have fun opinions seem to think whatever the order of G5 in the AP and/or popular computer polls HAS to be what the committee has the G5 ordered in. As if, what AP and computers say now, HAS to be the order on the final CFP Poll. Not true. The South Carolina game for the Mountaineers being later in the season is a big plus. That’s what I’m crudely trying to simulate with these rankings: A mix of popular computers, human Polls and perception wins vs P5.

My challenge is properly weighting these things. I hope I’m not too lean or too rich in one aspect or the other. I think it’s still a work in progress. I have toned down, some, on the P5 win and undefeated aspects so far, but that’s about it. I didn’t start doing this until Week 4 of this season. I think it’s as tuned as it can be. We shall see....

If App St. goes undefeated with an SEC win, they deserve to get the NY6 imo. However, committee member Ark. St. AD touched on it/danced around it this week. He said losing to an elite team in the national dialog doesn’t hurt you in the NY6 race. In his opinion, it’s better to play one elite vs. two middle of the road P5s. One reason was revenue for his school, but he also mentioned analytics. They’re looking at strength of schedule and who your opponents are playing and their records then kind of left off there.

http://953theticket.com/workday-redzone-...t-23-2019/ G5 NY6 comments @ begin 9:45 min mark

(10-25-2019 07:38 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  If App St. goes undefeated with an SEC win, they deserve to get the NY6 imo. However, committee member Ark. St. AD touched on it/danced around it this week. He said losing to an elite team in the national dialog doesn’t hurt you in the NY6 race. In his opinion, it’s better to play one elite vs. two middle of the road P5s. One reason was revenue for his school, but he also mentioned analytics. They’re looking at strength of schedule and who your opponents are playing and their records then kind of left off there.

http://953theticket.com/workday-redzone-...t-23-2019/ G5 NY6 comments @ begin 9:45 min mark

He may have danced around it, but we all have a pretty good idea who the Ark St AD would vote for if it came down to App or Cincinnati. He is not going to turn down the NY6 money his school would get to share.

um, South Carolina got boat raced today by Tennessee.....

(10-24-2019 02:15 PM)iStoopify Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:28 PM)fresnofanatic Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lol. Boise isn't ahead of Cincy right now. And frankly when we see the committee, it wouldn't be a surprise if Memphis isn't ahead of them as well...

And I seriously doubt App St is #2. They have 1, I repeat 1 win over a team better than .500. And that was Louisiana. And they have only 1 game left with a team over .500- Georgia St..

Appalachian State vs Cincy...

1). @P5 win > vs P5 win at home
2). Computers are close except espn FPI agrees with you quite a bit
3). Human polls close

4). App’s @South Carolina is huge...we shall see. You may or may not have a point. I have no idea until the games are played and the season done and CCGs played.

5). But wait! Undefeated is very hard to do no matter record of opponents. App’s opponents not as bad as you portrayed.

You want me to take away App’s 130 point bonus for being undefeated? Moves Boise to 2nd, Cincy still 4th. I ain’t budging. App is very good and so are Cincy and Boise. Appalachian making up for whatever you diss them on with bigger wins vs P5 and nearly as much love from computers and humans as Cincy.

You say South Carolina. Beating Memphis FAR better than beating South Carolina.

App's opponents ARE that bad. 1 win vs a winning team. That's something that the committee looks at heavily.

Right now Sagarin SOS. Cincy 44 App St 128... Something else that the committee looks at....

Sorry if the final in the AAC was Cincy vs SMU. With SMU only losing once before there- and Cincy winning out- the winner of that game is your G5 rep no matter what anyone else does.....

Look, there's a long way to go left in the season. But if App walks into an SEC stadium and gets a win late in the season, there should be 0 doubt in your mind that the committee will weigh that very heavily.

South Carolina got bashed by an awful Tenessee team today and is now 3-5. So i just don't think beating them will mean much.

wow me and Quo agree 100% on something!

The problem for other conferences is going into November, the AAC is going to have at least 3 teams ranked, with Navy winning and ranked this week 31/29- they will be really close- and UCF will be lurking.... so as they play each other in November- going to be a decent bit of ranked wins going around.

(10-26-2019 08:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  um, South Carolina got boat raced today by Tennessee.....

Thanks Tennessee

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(10-26-2019 07:24 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(10-25-2019 07:38 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  If App St. goes undefeated with an SEC win, they deserve to get the NY6 imo. However, committee member Ark. St. AD touched on it/danced around it this week. He said losing to an elite team in the national dialog doesn’t hurt you in the NY6 race. In his opinion, it’s better to play one elite vs. two middle of the road P5s. One reason was revenue for his school, but he also mentioned analytics. They’re looking at strength of schedule and who your opponents are playing and their records then kind of left off there.

http://953theticket.com/workday-redzone-...t-23-2019/ G5 NY6 comments @ begin 9:45 min mark

He may have danced around it, but we all have a pretty good idea who the Ark St AD would vote for if it came down to App or Cincinnati. He is not going to turn down the NY6 money his school would get to share.

Very well may be, but far from a guarantee the rest of the committee will follow suit based on analytics used. Anyway, that wasn’t the point of the post. This is the first info of ANY kind that has come out to my knowledge re: what the committee considers and how it affects rankings from a specific G5 pov.

MWC could get a couple in the top 25 in November. Air Force, San Diego State and Wyoming could get in. Boise is already in. All three also received votes last week along with UNR. UNR got eliminated after Wyoming trounced them. Wyoming is the last true test for Boise before the MWC CG.

Looking like the AAC champ will be the team

(10-27-2019 10:40 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  MWC could get a couple in the top 25 in November. Air Force, San Diego State and Wyoming could get in. Boise is already in. All three also received votes last week along with UNR. UNR got eliminated after Wyoming trounced them. Wyoming is the last true test for Boise before the MWC CG.

And the AAC could get 5 teams in the polls. In the current coaches poll, there are 3 AAC teams ranked, and two others just barely outside.

14. SMU
18. Cincinnati
23. Memphis
27. Navy
28. UCF

Let that sink in a minute. 5 teams realistically could be ranked next week. That's 1/5th of the entire poll.