PFF just tweeted win rate for edge rushers. He is #9 in country. Would not have thought so.
https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1...46186?s=19

(10-18-2019 09:30 AM)NIU05 Wrote:  PFF just tweeted win rate for edge rushers. He is #9 in country. Would not have thought so.
https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1...46186?s=19

Maybe we are just spoiled after witnessing the great Smith Corcoran combo last year.

https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2...eck-180378

And rated a 2 star when he signed....this star thing is BS as far as I am concerned

(10-18-2019 03:57 PM)OldTtimeNIU Wrote:  https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2...eck-180378

And rated a 2 star when he signed....this star thing is BS as far as I am concerned

Stars only asses a player for physical stats and abilities at the time they are measured. Doesn't measure heart, intelligence or other intangibles. A lot can happen in the course of 3 - 5 years. I think Kenny Golladay went from being 0 stars as a 6'4 175 LB kid to a stud at 6'4 215 LB dude who runs a 4.4 40. Josh Allen was a nobody out of high school as well, 6'3 180 LB dude grew into a 6'5 237 LB dude.

Yeah the whole star thing is the biggest scam in athletics, highly highly inaccurate

Completely agree with you, MD. But the next time (first time?) NIU recruits a 4-star talent, everyone on the board will be all over it (me included)!

(10-18-2019 04:52 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Yeah the whole star thing is the biggest scam in athletics, highly highly inaccurate

Do you believe that it has nothing to do with talent?
I agree that their is much hype regarding the stars, however it is statistically not meaningless.
If you prove to me that 5 stars, 4 stars, 3 stars, 2 stars and 1 star have an equal probability of being drafted in the NFL, then you are 100% correct.

We all know on this board that this is not the case.
While the system is floored it does predict talent imperfectly and a 5 star rated player has a significantly better chance of being drafted then a 4 star and very significantly more chance of being drafted to the NFL then a 3 star rated player.

Imo, "stars" are not predictors; they are comparative to others at that start-up level pre-college. Would you rather offer a scholarship to a 5-star or 1-star? That said, I partly agree with MD ... depends on who's doing the measuring, how honest they are, how much they know about others at that position, whether there's a little promo going on, etc etc etc. But we like to quantify the un-quantifiable (is there such a word? oh well). How else would you compare high school players?

And completely agree with HW58 on that next 4-star.

(10-18-2019 08:31 PM)pvk75 Wrote:  Imo, "stars" are not predictors; they are comparative to others at that start-up level pre-college. Would you rather offer a scholarship to a 5-star or 1-star? That said, I partly agree with MD ... depends on who's doing the measuring, how honest they are, how much they know about others at that position, whether there's a little promo going on, etc etc etc. But we like to quantify the un-quantifiable (is there such a word? oh well). How else would you compare high school players?

And completely agree with HW58 on that next 4-star.

It seems that both you and Maddawg were correct!
Sorry Maddawg you were correct and I was wrong on this issue.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal...l-football

Seems that only 0.6% of all highschool football players are unranked anf they account for 98.8% of all highschool players.

Am not sure what percentage of NFL drafters were ranked and there might well be a correlation between probability of ranked making it versus unranked positively correlatedto number of stars.

However if nearly 99% of the population sample is excluded then the rankings are almost certainly not representative of the talent!

Good call Maddawg.

Lorbeck is effective. He pressures the QB a whole bunch, just haven’t been able to get sacks....

Just view stars as that players odds of excelling. So maybe a 2 star player excels 10% of the time. A 3 star 20%. 4 star 35%. 5 star 50%. It doesn’t mean 2 star players are no good. It means they might be lacking some physical trait or even just enough analysis to say they’re more likely to succeed. People get all bent out of shape about stars every time a 2 star guy does well.

Stars matter more to evaluating a schools ability to attract talent. More stars=more options. If you can get a higher ranked kid it means he chose you over other equal or better schools. That matters. It’s great we get a kid like Sutton.....but that’s because he had no other options. If he was ranked a high 3/low 4 he never would have come here.

Lorbeck could be a beast. Just need someone on the other side also.