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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc...969301002/


55 :)

Yeah, but to be realistic, I dont think any of us yet know if UAB is really that good. We have played only one team so far that has even one respectable win, and we lost that game to WKU.

If UAB wins at UT or USM and/or La Tech then we know something. Until then I see a young team that has successfully navigated a remarkably soft schedule to a fun 5 - 1 record. They have clear flaws and gaps but seems to be improving in several key areas. But our competition has been so poor its hard to know where we really stand.

I agree, that seems way too high at the moment. Last year we put bad teams away immediately, this year it is taking some time. I still think there is at least another couple of losses on this schedule unless we improve tremendously in a couple of key areas in the next month.

(10-14-2019 07:48 PM)Ranger1386c Wrote:  Yeah, but to be realistic, I dont think any of us yet know if UAB is really that good. We have played only one team so far that has even one respectable win, and we lost that game to WKU.

If UAB wins at UT or USM and/or La Tech then we know something. Until then I see a young team that has successfully navigated a remarkably soft schedule to a fun 5 - 1 record. They have clear flaws and gaps but seems to be improving in several key areas. But our competition has been so poor its hard to know where we really stand.

Yup. We've played one team with a winning record, WKU, and lost. We do seem to be getting better.

We have some good talent but really need another recruiting class to recover from last years over-sized losses. I think we contend for the New Year's Day spot next year.

USM looks scary. Tech looks better than last year. UNT has played an absolutely brutal schedule, but still have Mason Fine slinging it around. UT is looking much better since they switched QB’s and is an SEC team.

Anyone want to guess our record in those games?

we can lose any of those game and we can win all those game except UT ,,this game is only for money and we will need to concentrate for all the following CUSA game ,,,this season can be average oR even better then last year
I am worry about southern miss and we will take care of NTX qb like we did last year ,, he was not the same after a couple of big qb hit
La tech is la tech ,,can not beat us

Based on what I saw last weekend, at the halfway point I anticipate at least two more losses, maybe three. I think we lose at USM and UTK, and I think we better bring our A game against ODU this weekend. I watched then play VA. They have talent and heart.

I absolutely love UAB football and what Coach Clark has done with the program. I think we are on a path to perennial success and have potential for a 12 win team next year if we improve the Oline. But this years young team has some obvious issues and gaps:

12 concerns with this team include:
1. An offensive line that all season has shown little ability to win in short yardage situations. Thus, we have horrible 3rd and 4th down conversion rates. Our guards struggle most games.
2. Red zone offense and play calling are totally unreliable. See #1. We left at least 20 poiints on the field Saturday as a result. That earns you a loss against solid teams.
3. Our young QB is talented and fearless, but often reckless with the ball. That cost us a game at WKU and more of that will do the same against the best defenses on our schedule, all of which are still ahead.
4. Our high defensive ranking is misleading. Weve played 6 mediocre offenses, and that might be too kind. We have faced only one QB who could throw the ball and he ate our lunch and delivered a no name receiver with 200 yds. Wbat will Abraham and his flock of fleet receivers from the state of Alabama bring to the field? Or Fine?
5. My favorite record setting running back’s style doesnt fit well with this years offensive line, but I fear we will see too much of him instead of J Brown and Stanley in games ahead. We need quickness this year more than power. The holes close quickly.
6. Our secondary is young, and depleted by injury. We are on the verge of playing some true freshmen I suspect.
7. Our middle linebacker depth is scary thin. Rayam isnt playing this year and Wilder is hurt. I havent seen an adequate replacement yet this year, unless Mofor moves back. Which leaves Wright or Johnston to man the Jack.
8. Our highest rated defensive recruit ever is playing behind a true freshman in the year a young team most needs leadership.
9. We are prone to senseless penalties. Lots of them. Drive killers for the good guys, and drive extenders for the bad guys. Weve gotten away with it so far, but that loses games against the upper echelon of the conference.
10. One interception on the season. Awesome at fumbles so that balances a bit but all the best QBs are ahead.
11. All of our toughest games are still ahead.
12. Johnston takes a lot of hits. I dont see our offense threatening anyone without him. He has to stay healthy for UAB to win.

Many positives also, but for another post.

(10-14-2019 08:59 PM)BlazerMatt Wrote:  USM looks scary. Tech looks better than last year. UNT has played an absolutely brutal schedule, but still have Mason Fine slinging it around. UT is looking much better since they switched QB’s and is an SEC team.

Anyone want to guess our record in those games?

from my preseason predictions, i havent missed a game yet. I predicted we'd lose @WKU, Tenn, So Miss and No Texas.

I hope i'll have a chance to reevaluate after im wrong at UT, but until im wrong, i'll stick with it.
to answer your question, 1-3

(10-14-2019 10:25 PM)Ranger1386c Wrote:  Based on what I saw last weekend, at the halfway point I anticipate at least two more losses, maybe three. I think we lose at USM and UTK, and I think we better bring our A game against ODU this weekend. I watched then play VA. They have talent and heart.

I absolutely love UAB football and what Coach Clark has done with the program. I think we are on a path to perennial success and have potential for a 12 win team next year if we improve the Oline. But this years young team has some obvious issues and gaps:

12 concerns with this team include:
1. An offensive line that all season has shown little ability to win in short yardage situations. Thus, we have horrible 3rd and 4th down conversion rates. Our guards struggle most games.
2. Red zone offense and play calling are totally unreliable. See #1. We left at least 20 poiints on the field Saturday as a result. That earns you a loss against solid teams.
3. Our young QB is talented and fearless, but often reckless with the ball. That cost us a game at WKU and more of that will do the same against the best defenses on our schedule, all of which are still ahead.
4. Our high defensive ranking is misleading. Weve played 6 mediocre offenses, and that might be too kind. We have faced only one QB who could throw the ball and he ate our lunch and delivered a no name receiver with 200 yds. Wbat will Abraham and his flock of fleet receivers from the state of Alabama bring to the field? Or Fine?
5. My favorite record setting running back’s style doesnt fit well with this years offensive line, but I fear we will see too much of him instead of J Brown and Stanley in games ahead. We need quickness this year more than power. The holes close quickly.
6. Our secondary is young, and depleted by injury. We are on the verge of playing some true freshmen I suspect.
7. Our middle linebacker depth is scary thin. Rayam isnt playing this year and Wilder is hurt. I havent seen an adequate replacement yet this year, unless Mofor moves back. Which leaves Wright or Johnston to man the Jack.
8. Our highest rated defensive recruit ever is playing behind a true freshman in the year a young team most needs leadership.
9. We are prone to senseless penalties. Lots of them. Drive killers for the good guys, and drive extenders for the bad guys. Weve gotten away with it so far, but that loses games against the upper echelon of the conference.
10. One interception on the season. Awesome at fumbles so that balances a bit but all the best QBs are ahead.
11. All of our toughest games are still ahead.
12. Johnston takes a lot of hits. I dont see our offense threatening anyone without him. He has to stay healthy for UAB to win.

Many positives also, but for another post.

Completely agree with all your points. I agree with most of what everyone else has said also. We should be sitting at 6-0, and with this team - against any schedule - that's a testament to the coaching staff. We have gotten better, but still have a lot of holes. We could win every game on the schedule, but realistically I see AT LEAST 2 more losses. That's still a good season and a bowl in a rebuilding/retooling year.

I do believe many are a bit too hard on Johnston. He had an awful day against wku without a doubt, but take that away and he has 13tds and 5 ints the rest of the way. He also has over 1,300 yards and a completion percentage above 62%. I know the game happened and we can’t completely dismiss it, but that game is the exception not the rule.

We all grew frustrated with prior QBs drinking and dunking the ball down the field. There were not many turnovers, but there also weren’t the quick strike, backbreaking plays either. Johnston is a bit of a gunslinger, and I don’t want him to lose that mentality. He needs to work on his reads and progressions in the offseason, but he is a great qb in my opinion.

(10-14-2019 08:59 PM)BlazerMatt Wrote:  USM looks scary. Tech looks better than last year. UNT has played an absolutely brutal schedule, but still have Mason Fine slinging it around. UT is looking much better since they switched QB’s and is an SEC team.

Anyone want to guess our record in those games?

2-2. I think USM will smoke us and Tennessee has turned the corner enough to prevent another home loss to a G5 program.

We get La Tech at home and UNT may not be motivated in their last game of the season unless it is to get to 7 wins and then I reserve the right to change that record to 1-3.

(10-15-2019 09:18 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 08:59 PM)BlazerMatt Wrote:  USM looks scary. Tech looks better than last year. UNT has played an absolutely brutal schedule, but still have Mason Fine slinging it around. UT is looking much better since they switched QB’s and is an SEC team.

Anyone want to guess our record in those games?

2-2. I think USM will smoke us and Tennessee has turned the corner enough to prevent another home loss to a G5 program.

We get La Tech at home and UNT may not be motivated in their last game of the season unless it is to get to 7 wins and then I reserve the right to change that record to 1-3.

For what its worth i agree. I see us going 2-2 or 1-3 with La Tech being the swing game.

I think we are more likely to go 0-4 than 4-0.

Four of our wins are to teams ranked between 117-130 in their rankings (plus a scary close win over a mediocre FCS program); and we have two more games coming up against teams ranked at 119 and 127. In that light, bowl eligibility was all but guaranteed before the season started, just based on the schedule.

It's nice to read that we are ranked ahead of such traditional football powers as Florida State and Nebraska, plus six SEC schools and another six Big 10 schools. But I don't think any of us are under the illusion that if we went head to head with those 14 schools right now we would have a .500 record. At least I am not.

Having said all of that, I would rather be 5-1 right now against a cream puff schedule--especially at this point in our program re-building--than 2-4 against better competition. But in time, we definitely have to schedule better. And of course improved conference competition would be nice.

On scheduling: Until we are ready to compete for the Access Bowl, then scheduling doesn't have to be tougher. Unlike basketball, where postseason is SOS related, 7 wins pretty much guarantee you a bowl.

I think scheduling regional is more important than scheduling tougher. Crowd > SOS - right now.

(10-15-2019 11:38 AM)ICB Wrote:  On scheduling: Until we are ready to compete for the Access Bowl, then scheduling doesn't have to be tougher. Unlike basketball, where postseason is SOS related, 7 wins pretty much guarantee you a bowl.

I think scheduling regional is more important than scheduling tougher. Crowd > SOS - right now.

agree ...more win sound better

(10-15-2019 10:54 AM)bftb Wrote:  we definitely have to schedule better. And of course improved conference competition would be nice.

It's 100% the latter. As has been said before, we didn't plan the schedule to be this easy. Rice, UTEP, UTSA are divisional, and ODU came up in the rotation.

The So Miss-La Tech game this week is interesting. Tech is 5-1, but their schedule has been, with the exception of playing Texas, as weak as ours: Grambling, Bowling Green (2-4), FIU (3-3), Rice (0-6), and UMass (1-6). SoMiss has shown they're legit, with two losses to SEC schools, they beat Troy on the road, and throttled North Texas, who was the pick to win the west. I think we'll know Saturday night how good Tech is.

I see wins at home against Old Dominion this week, and UTEP in November. I see losses in Hattiesburg and Knoxville. Ask me on Sunday morning about the Tech game. That last game at N. Texas- man, I don't like the look of that. Mason Fine playing his last game there, I imagine it will be an amped atmosphere there, and probably ends badly for us. So, I see us at 7-5 or 8-4, depending on what kind of team Tech turns out to be.

8 - 4 sounds about right to me. Anything better would be a major accomplishment considering the status of our team so far ( injuries have had a significant impact I think).

(10-15-2019 11:38 AM)ICB Wrote:  On scheduling: Until we are ready to compete for the Access Bowl, then scheduling doesn't have to be tougher. Unlike basketball, where postseason is SOS related, 7 wins pretty much guarantee you a bowl.

I think scheduling regional is more important than scheduling tougher. Crowd > SOS - right now.

Oh, I completely agree, especially with the crowd > SOS. We have seen what attendance looks like in November with a losing record. People are excited about this team, and that has a lot to do with the fact that we are winning.

And in that light, it's probably a good think that our conference is weak right now. If we had SMU, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Memphis, Houston, Tulane, etc. on our schedule, we would likely be staying home in late December.

(10-14-2019 08:59 PM)BlazerMatt Wrote:  USM looks scary. Tech looks better than last year. UNT has played an absolutely brutal schedule, but still have Mason Fine slinging it around. UT is looking much better since they switched QB’s and is an SEC team.

Anyone want to guess our record in those games?

Fine left the SoMiss game with a left shoulder injury and did not return. He's right handed, and we know he's a tough kid. Still, if he's out they're not the same team.

(10-14-2019 10:25 PM)Ranger1386c Wrote:  Based on what I saw last weekend, at the halfway point I anticipate at least two more losses, maybe three. I think we lose at USM and UTK, and I think we better bring our A game against ODU this weekend. I watched then play VA. They have talent and heart.

I wish I could disagree with that, but all of those points seem well observed. There are a lot of things that we can't help, but many of the things we can, we're not improving on.