Not even out of September and only 2 teams with 3 conference games, Pac 12 has 10 teams with a conference win and 9 with a conference loss. Only ones without a loss have only played 1 conference game. Only WSU has played 2 conference games and doesn't have a win.

May lead to an interesting race but doesn't bode well for getting into the CFP. 3 teams already have 3+ losses and 2 have 2. The other 7 all have 1.

(09-29-2019 08:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  Not even out of September and only 2 teams with 3 conference games, Pac 12 has 10 teams with a conference win and 9 with a conference loss. Only ones without a loss have only played 1 conference game. Only WSU has played 2 conference games and doesn't have a win.

May lead to an interesting race but doesn't bode well for getting into the CFP. 3 teams already have 3+ losses and 2 have 2. The other 7 all have 1.

IMO, only Oregon has a pathway left to the CFP, and that one is a long shot requiring more than a few things to break their way.

Washington has the best shot at finishing with one loss, IMO. They play Oregon, Utah, and Washington State at home. If you want to make an argument for Utah, it's that the game in Seattle might be their only significant remaining obstacle.

Obviously if it's just about a conference getting a team in the playoff, the best scenario is to be like the ACC where Clemson is so far ahead of everyone else that it would be an earthshaking upset if they lost at all. The next best scenario is to have a couple of teams so far ahead of the others that the winner of their game is best positioned to finish with fewer than two losses. The Big Ten looks to be that way, with the caveat that Ohio State and Wisconsin might have to play each other twice. And, the same goes for the Big 12, if Texas turns out to be better than everyone there other than OU.

The key is for the best team or two to be far enough ahead of the others (or, like the ACC, for the others to be so far behind) that the top team could have a few games where they play poorly and still win. Washington and Oregon are not far enough ahead of the rest of the Pac to get away with that.

It’s hard to fathom a scenario where the PAC 12 has a playoff team.

Washington probably has the best chance of winning out, but their best non-conference win will be over BYU. Not to knock BYU, but the committee probably won't be impressed with that.

Oregon has a path, but none of their 3 wins are against quality competition. The question becomes how good are they?

I wouldn't rule the PAC 12 out at this point, but they will need assistance and the margin for error is razor thin.

(09-30-2019 10:33 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Washington probably has the best chance of winning out, but their best non-conference win will be over BYU. Not to knock BYU, but the committee probably won't be impressed with that.

Oregon has a path, but none of their 3 wins are against quality competition. The question becomes how good are they?

I wouldn't rule the PAC 12 out at this point, but they will need assistance and the margin for error is razor thin.

As of now Oregon is the only one with a quality loss. The rest have dubious losses.

(09-30-2019 10:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:33 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Washington probably has the best chance of winning out, but their best non-conference win will be over BYU. Not to knock BYU, but the committee probably won't be impressed with that.

Oregon has a path, but none of their 3 wins are against quality competition. The question becomes how good are they?

I wouldn't rule the PAC 12 out at this point, but they will need assistance and the margin for error is razor thin.

As of now Oregon is the only one with a quality loss. The rest have dubious losses.

Previous CFP selections show that the committee cares more about quality wins than losses. I doubt that losing to Auburn will help Oregon any more than losing to LSU will help Texas.

It matters if there are more than 4 P5 teams with fewer than 2 losses, but doesn't matter otherwise.

(09-30-2019 10:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:33 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Washington probably has the best chance of winning out, but their best non-conference win will be over BYU. Not to knock BYU, but the committee probably won't be impressed with that.

Oregon has a path, but none of their 3 wins are against quality competition. The question becomes how good are they?

I wouldn't rule the PAC 12 out at this point, but they will need assistance and the margin for error is razor thin.

As of now Oregon is the only one with a quality loss. The rest have dubious losses.

I would agree with that, but I don't think Oregon wins out. Lots of parity in the PAC this year. I haven't seen a team that jumps out at me as head and shoulders above the rest.

If Oregon wins out then they probably have the best resume though.

(09-30-2019 10:53 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:33 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Washington probably has the best chance of winning out, but their best non-conference win will be over BYU. Not to knock BYU, but the committee probably won't be impressed with that.

Oregon has a path, but none of their 3 wins are against quality competition. The question becomes how good are they?

I wouldn't rule the PAC 12 out at this point, but they will need assistance and the margin for error is razor thin.

As of now Oregon is the only one with a quality loss. The rest have dubious losses.

Previous CFP selections show that the committee cares more about quality wins than losses. I doubt that losing to Auburn will help Oregon any more than losing to LSU will help Texas.

It matters if there are more than 4 P5 teams with fewer than 2 losses, but doesn't matter otherwise.

I disagree. see Ohio St last 2 years and Penn St 3 years ago now.

(10-01-2019 03:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:53 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:33 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Washington probably has the best chance of winning out, but their best non-conference win will be over BYU. Not to knock BYU, but the committee probably won't be impressed with that.

Oregon has a path, but none of their 3 wins are against quality competition. The question becomes how good are they?

I wouldn't rule the PAC 12 out at this point, but they will need assistance and the margin for error is razor thin.

As of now Oregon is the only one with a quality loss. The rest have dubious losses.

Previous CFP selections show that the committee cares more about quality wins than losses. I doubt that losing to Auburn will help Oregon any more than losing to LSU will help Texas.

It matters if there are more than 4 P5 teams with fewer than 2 losses, but doesn't matter otherwise.

I disagree. see Ohio St last 2 years and Penn St 3 years ago now.

I think you misread.

A one-loss team can get left out if there are more than 4 P5 teams with fewer than two losses (like Ohio State, Penn State, TCU, and Baylor were left out in past years). If there are not more than 4 P5 teams with fewer than two losses, then any one-loss P5 champ will be in the playoff, regardless of perceived strength of schedule.

And that's based on the history of the CFP so far, where no team with 2 or more losses has ever been selected.

(09-30-2019 10:53 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:33 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Washington probably has the best chance of winning out, but their best non-conference win will be over BYU. Not to knock BYU, but the committee probably won't be impressed with that.

Oregon has a path, but none of their 3 wins are against quality competition. The question becomes how good are they?

I wouldn't rule the PAC 12 out at this point, but they will need assistance and the margin for error is razor thin.

As of now Oregon is the only one with a quality loss. The rest have dubious losses.

Previous CFP selections show that the committee cares more about quality wins than losses. I doubt that losing to Auburn will help Oregon any more than losing to LSU will help Texas.

It matters if there are more than 4 P5 teams with fewer than 2 losses, but doesn't matter otherwise.

Agree. They tend to ignore losses if equal numbers but they really pay attention to the top wins.

(10-01-2019 03:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:53 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-30-2019 10:33 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Washington probably has the best chance of winning out, but their best non-conference win will be over BYU. Not to knock BYU, but the committee probably won't be impressed with that.

Oregon has a path, but none of their 3 wins are against quality competition. The question becomes how good are they?

I wouldn't rule the PAC 12 out at this point, but they will need assistance and the margin for error is razor thin.

As of now Oregon is the only one with a quality loss. The rest have dubious losses.

Previous CFP selections show that the committee cares more about quality wins than losses. I doubt that losing to Auburn will help Oregon any more than losing to LSU will help Texas.

It matters if there are more than 4 P5 teams with fewer than 2 losses, but doesn't matter otherwise.

I disagree. see Ohio St last 2 years and Penn St 3 years ago now.

How about Ohio St. in 2014 vs. TCU and Baylor?