(10-15-2019 11:18 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 10:06 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Using Sagarin's conference ratings, the AAC West is right on the heels of both divisions of the ACC. We are closer to the SEC-East than we are to the best MWC division. If the West champ wins the AAC CCG and finishes 12-1, it would be ridiculous for that team not to be playing in a NY6 game.

Of course, NCAA fb post-season is ridiculous.

1 SEC-WEST = 83.55
separation gap
2 BIG TEN-E = 80.84
3 BIG 12 = 79.81
4 PAC-12-N = 78.33
5 SEC-EAST = 77.77
6 PAC-12-S = 75.17
7 BIG TEN-W = 74.61
8 ACC-ATL = 73.80
9 ACC-COA = 73.30
10 AAC WEST = 73.25
huge separation gap
11 MWC-MTN = 68.67
gap
12 AAC EAST = 65.83
gap
13 MWC-WEST = 62.98
14 MAC-WEST = 61.51
15 SUN BELT-E = 61.44
16 I-A IND. = 59.56
17 CONF USA-E = 58.08
18 SUN BELT-W = 57.84
19 CONF USA-W = 56.50
20 MAC-EAST = 56.46

It wouldn't be ridiculous for an undefeated Boise team to get the nod over a 12-1 AAC west champion.

Undefeated Boise ahead of a 12-1 AAC champ MAY not be ridiculous. I could debate that with you.

But that's not what I said. I said it would be ridiculous for the 12-1 AAC champ to be sitting home on NYD, especially if the champ was from the West. Because it would mean that you've knocked off 3-4 other top 25ish teams on the way to a conference championship with a 12-1 record. I'm not saying either/or AAC/Boise. I'm saying both 12-1 AAC and 13-0 Boise.

Look at the Sagarin metrics above for example. This shows that there is not much difference in the AAC West and the ACC (both divisions), the B10-West, and the PAC-South. Now think about how many teams from those very divisions with lesser accomplishments will be playing on NYD. Imagine if you had a 12-1 Arizona State who won the PAC (or Minny in the B10, or Fla St in the ACC) and was left playing in the Independence Bowl. Most would consider that ridiculous. Heck, you will have 4th place teams with 4 losses playing in NY6 bowls. To have that ahead of a 12-1 conference champ FROM A CONFERENCE ON BASICALLY THE SAME LEVEL, would be ridiculous.

Maybe it doesn't come to that. Maybe Boise loses a game. Or maybe the AAC champ gets an at-large.

(10-15-2019 03:23 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 11:18 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 10:06 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Using Sagarin's conference ratings, the AAC West is right on the heels of both divisions of the ACC. We are closer to the SEC-East than we are to the best MWC division. If the West champ wins the AAC CCG and finishes 12-1, it would be ridiculous for that team not to be playing in a NY6 game.

Of course, NCAA fb post-season is ridiculous.

1 SEC-WEST = 83.55
separation gap
2 BIG TEN-E = 80.84
3 BIG 12 = 79.81
4 PAC-12-N = 78.33
5 SEC-EAST = 77.77
6 PAC-12-S = 75.17
7 BIG TEN-W = 74.61
8 ACC-ATL = 73.80
9 ACC-COA = 73.30
10 AAC WEST = 73.25
huge separation gap
11 MWC-MTN = 68.67
gap
12 AAC EAST = 65.83
gap
13 MWC-WEST = 62.98
14 MAC-WEST = 61.51
15 SUN BELT-E = 61.44
16 I-A IND. = 59.56
17 CONF USA-E = 58.08
18 SUN BELT-W = 57.84
19 CONF USA-W = 56.50
20 MAC-EAST = 56.46

It wouldn't be ridiculous for an undefeated Boise team to get the nod over a 12-1 AAC west champion.

Undefeated Boise ahead of a 12-1 AAC champ MAY not be ridiculous. I could debate that with you.

But that's not what I said. I said it would be ridiculous for the 12-1 AAC champ to be sitting home on NYD, especially if the champ was from the West. Because it would mean that you've knocked off 3-4 other top 25ish teams on the way to a conference championship with a 12-1 record. I'm not saying either/or AAC/Boise. I'm saying both 12-1 AAC and 13-0 Boise.

Look at the Sagarin metrics above for example. This shows that there is not much difference in the AAC West and the ACC (both divisions), the B10-West, and the PAC-South. Now think about how many teams from those very divisions with lesser accomplishments will be playing on NYD. Imagine if you had a 12-1 Arizona State who won the PAC (or Minny in the B10, or Fla St in the ACC) and was left playing in the Independence Bowl. Most would consider that ridiculous. Heck, you will have 4th place teams with 4 losses playing in NY6 bowls. To have that ahead of a 12-1 conference champ FROM A CONFERENCE ON BASICALLY THE SAME LEVEL, would be ridiculous.

Maybe it doesn't come to that. Maybe Boise loses a game. Or maybe the AAC champ gets an at-large.

By saying that you are saying an undefeated Boise being ahead of a 12-1 AAC champ out of the West division is ridiculous. It's just not

The Group of 5 is never going to get 2 teams in the NY6 games. I don't know where some of you get this idea from.

As for those Sagarin ratings they don't mean much when it comes to the playoff committee. Now if Boise loses then a 1 loss AAC champ will be the G5 representative.

Now if an undefeated Boise get's the nod over an undefeated AAC champ, then yes that would be ridiculous.

(10-15-2019 11:19 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  I get that...he's what he is. He's an average G5 QB (with relatively no upside but a solid floor barring a ton of mistakes) and that's fine in most seasons. We had an opportunity for an unbeaten season cuz of our relatively weak schedule and my fear was he would be one of the primary reasons we won't be able to get there. It is what it is at this point. Let's hope we win out and still somehow get a shot to play for a New Year's bowl game.

People saying "relatively weak schedule" at the start of the season, were focused on the wrong thing - as many of us said. They were focused on OOC, and they should have been focused on the AAC. That's were the challenge always was and always should be. It's a tough conference - especially the West this year - whether the privileged want to admit it or not. Five different top 25 teams at various points this year, with a 6th knocking on the door.

(10-14-2019 11:53 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Or you have a guy that is:

#1 in the AAC in completion %
#1 in passing efficiency
#2 in passing td's
#4 in passing yards

Ya'll are gonna lose your sh!t when he is named 1st team all-AAC.

Don't forget #1 in turnovers

(10-15-2019 03:35 PM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 03:23 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 11:18 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 10:06 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Using Sagarin's conference ratings, the AAC West is right on the heels of both divisions of the ACC. We are closer to the SEC-East than we are to the best MWC division. If the West champ wins the AAC CCG and finishes 12-1, it would be ridiculous for that team not to be playing in a NY6 game.

Of course, NCAA fb post-season is ridiculous.

1 SEC-WEST = 83.55
separation gap
2 BIG TEN-E = 80.84
3 BIG 12 = 79.81
4 PAC-12-N = 78.33
5 SEC-EAST = 77.77
6 PAC-12-S = 75.17
7 BIG TEN-W = 74.61
8 ACC-ATL = 73.80
9 ACC-COA = 73.30
10 AAC WEST = 73.25
huge separation gap
11 MWC-MTN = 68.67
gap
12 AAC EAST = 65.83
gap
13 MWC-WEST = 62.98
14 MAC-WEST = 61.51
15 SUN BELT-E = 61.44
16 I-A IND. = 59.56
17 CONF USA-E = 58.08
18 SUN BELT-W = 57.84
19 CONF USA-W = 56.50
20 MAC-EAST = 56.46

It wouldn't be ridiculous for an undefeated Boise team to get the nod over a 12-1 AAC west champion.

Undefeated Boise ahead of a 12-1 AAC champ MAY not be ridiculous. I could debate that with you.

But that's not what I said. I said it would be ridiculous for the 12-1 AAC champ to be sitting home on NYD, especially if the champ was from the West. Because it would mean that you've knocked off 3-4 other top 25ish teams on the way to a conference championship with a 12-1 record. I'm not saying either/or AAC/Boise. I'm saying both 12-1 AAC and 13-0 Boise.

Look at the Sagarin metrics above for example. This shows that there is not much difference in the AAC West and the ACC (both divisions), the B10-West, and the PAC-South. Now think about how many teams from those very divisions with lesser accomplishments will be playing on NYD. Imagine if you had a 12-1 Arizona State who won the PAC (or Minny in the B10, or Fla St in the ACC) and was left playing in the Independence Bowl. Most would consider that ridiculous. Heck, you will have 4th place teams with 4 losses playing in NY6 bowls. To have that ahead of a 12-1 conference champ FROM A CONFERENCE ON BASICALLY THE SAME LEVEL, would be ridiculous.

Maybe it doesn't come to that. Maybe Boise loses a game. Or maybe the AAC champ gets an at-large.

By saying that you are saying an undefeated Boise being ahead of a 12-1 AAC champ out of the West division is ridiculous. It's just not

The Group of 5 is never going to get 2 teams in the NY6 games. I don't know where some of you get this idea from.

As for those Sagarin ratings they don't mean much when it comes to the playoff committee. Now if Boise loses then a 1 loss AAC champ will be the G5 representative.

Now if an undefeated Boise get's the nod over an undefeated AAC champ, then yes that would be ridiculous.

*sigh*
That (Memphis over Boise) is not what I'm saying. I could talk myself into debating that if I needed to, but that's not the point of my post - nor is it what I actually said.

I'm saying it would be ridiculous for either a 13-0 Boise or a 12-1 Memphis to be relegated to the Birmingham Bowl, while a 9-3 Duke goes to the Cotton Bowl. Now I can see that this could very well happen. But that does not change the ridiculousness.

And who knows what the CFP committee uses. It's a dark, smoky room scenario. Much like AAC instant replay review.

(10-15-2019 03:40 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 11:19 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  I get that...he's what he is. He's an average G5 QB (with relatively no upside but a solid floor barring a ton of mistakes) and that's fine in most seasons. We had an opportunity for an unbeaten season cuz of our relatively weak schedule and my fear was he would be one of the primary reasons we won't be able to get there. It is what it is at this point. Let's hope we win out and still somehow get a shot to play for a New Year's bowl game.

People saying "relatively weak schedule" at the start of the season, were focused on the wrong thing - as many of us said. They were focused on OOC, and they should have been focused on the AAC. That's were the challenge always was and always should be. It's a tough conference - especially the West this year - whether the privileged want to admit it or not. Five different top 25 teams at various points this year, with a 6th knocking on the door.

Other than Temple, we play every good AAC team on our schedule at home. A relatively weak schedule doesn't indicate a cupcake schedule but everything had lined up for us. Anyways, none of that matters now.

I'm going to put those odds at about 0%

(10-15-2019 10:06 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Using Sagarin's conference ratings, the AAC West is right on the heels of both divisions of the ACC. We are closer to the SEC-East than we are to the best MWC division. If the West champ wins the AAC CCG and finishes 12-1, it would be ridiculous for that team not to be playing in a NY6 game.

Of course, NCAA fb post-season is ridiculous.

1 SEC-WEST = 83.55
separation gap
2 BIG TEN-E = 80.84
3 BIG 12 = 79.81
4 PAC-12-N = 78.33
5 SEC-EAST = 77.77
6 PAC-12-S = 75.17
7 BIG TEN-W = 74.61
8 ACC-ATL = 73.80
9 ACC-COA = 73.30
10 AAC WEST = 73.25
huge separation gap
11 MWC-MTN = 68.67
gap
12 AAC EAST = 65.83
gap
13 MWC-WEST = 62.98
14 MAC-WEST = 61.51
15 SUN BELT-E = 61.44
16 I-A IND. = 59.56
17 CONF USA-E = 58.08
18 SUN BELT-W = 57.84
19 CONF USA-W = 56.50
20 MAC-EAST = 56.46

Great stats and find Tiger87.

This is the stuff that our new AD and Aresco needs to be screaming from the mountain top. The fact that the AAC West is a point or two difference in competitiveness and quality from the ACC, Big 10W, and PAC12S is
HUGE! This proves the ESPN bias in coverage, stories, bowl tie-ins, and TV Contracts is total bullshi*! There needs to be a major marketing campaign on talk shows, call-ins, etc. that the Power 6 is just a fairytale.
(Now hopefully we don't cannibalize each other too much in the next 6 weeks)

Also, Connecticut can't leave the conference soon enough as I'd expect the AAC East hops over the MWC-MTN conference easily without that anchor around their rating.

The fact that the ESPN CFB Conference Power Rankings includes the ACC and not the AAC drives me absolutely bonkers. And there's no email address or comments allowed to show the absurdity of it all.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...r-rankings