(10-12-2019 10:35 PM)grapes Wrote:  

If Memphis went 12-1, wouldn't you guys think that would be enough to pass an undefeated MWC team?

yes, because that would mean we have at least 2 top 25 wins (SMU, Cincy) and I do not think Boise would have any.

(10-14-2019 11:44 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 09:08 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 10:36 PM)Greenwavedrownsacat Wrote:  So if Memphis runs the table (or Tulane or Temple or 1 loss SMU) does the beating 4-5 ranked teams and in some cases a P5 win not overcome Boise beating nobody ? Isn’t this the same P5 argument vs G5 ? But now we are using a P6 vs G4. At what point do we jump them just like a 1 loss P5 jumps us in the CFP. These are honest questions, is it possible to use Espns Ranking tool (CFI or whatever it’s called)

Bottom line is the poll lead is too much to overcome.

And what 4 or 5 ranked teams will Memphis beat? SMU and Cinci are the only two left and I have a pretty strong feeling SMU is going to lose at least one of their next two. If Memphis beats Tulane, then Tulane is dunzo as polls re concerned.

And if the shoe were on the other foot and Memphis had an iffy schedule, ran the table while having a significant poll lead, and then was jumped the final week by a 1 loss team, folks here would lose their sh!t.

I agree with you, but let's speak hypothetical. Say SMU beats Temple Saturday (note: I don't think they will) and then beats Houston. They should be borderline top 15 team when they head here. Let's say Memphis wins by 2 touchdowns. That would bump Memphis up a decent bit.

Now let's say Cincinnati comes to Memphis with just 1 loss and will more than likely be borderline top 15, but squarely inside the top 20. Let's say Memphis wins by 10 and then turn around the following week Cincy should still be ranked and Memphis beats them again in the championship game by 2 td's.

That's 3 wins against ranked teams in the last month or so of the season. It would definitely make it a discussion for the committee. I still think Boise gets the nod if all that happens, but there would be some discussion about flipping them, but in the end it would be extremely harsh to have a 1 loss team jump an undefeated team.

I agree the discussion would be on the table.

(10-14-2019 09:16 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 03:02 PM)fsquid Wrote:  Win out and have the convo

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I know, right? I’m not saying we can’t do it, but we may have 3 teams left on our schedule that are better than Temple.

It could be argued that we were better than Temple except for 4 plays, by one guy.

Just sayin'.

(10-14-2019 11:16 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 08:46 PM)AlonsoWDC Wrote:  Yeah I mean they set that precedent with freaking Western Michigan.

What precedent did they set? In 2016 Western Michigan was a 13-0 G5 champion. All the others had multiple losses.

Right.

But the MAC is a freaking joke compared to the AAC or MWC.

(10-14-2019 05:01 PM)Herff Tiger Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 09:16 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 03:02 PM)fsquid Wrote:  Win out and have the convo

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I know, right? I’m not saying we can’t do it, but we may have 3 teams left on our schedule that are better than Temple.

It could be argued that we were better than Temple except for 4 plays, by one guy.

Just sayin'.

Ooooooooooh Noooooooooo! That reminds me of the Rip years when Wolo would say we were only 8 points from being 5-1 instead of 1-5 (or whatever the numbers were).

(10-14-2019 05:01 PM)Herff Tiger Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 09:16 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 03:02 PM)fsquid Wrote:  Win out and have the convo

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I know, right? I’m not saying we can’t do it, but we may have 3 teams left on our schedule that are better than Temple.

It could be argued that we were better than Temple except for 4 plays, by one guy.

Just sayin'.

It stinks, but we gotta put it all together. If we don’t have a great pass blocking O line, then we need an elusive QB who can throw on the run. It sucks to be on the verge of great things, but to not quite have all of the pieces.

(10-14-2019 11:44 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 09:08 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 10:36 PM)Greenwavedrownsacat Wrote:  So if Memphis runs the table (or Tulane or Temple or 1 loss SMU) does the beating 4-5 ranked teams and in some cases a P5 win not overcome Boise beating nobody ? Isn’t this the same P5 argument vs G5 ? But now we are using a P6 vs G4. At what point do we jump them just like a 1 loss P5 jumps us in the CFP. These are honest questions, is it possible to use Espns Ranking tool (CFI or whatever it’s called)

Bottom line is the poll lead is too much to overcome.

And what 4 or 5 ranked teams will Memphis beat? SMU and Cinci are the only two left and I have a pretty strong feeling SMU is going to lose at least one of their next two. If Memphis beats Tulane, then Tulane is dunzo as polls re concerned.

And if the shoe were on the other foot and Memphis had an iffy schedule, ran the table while having a significant poll lead, and then was jumped the final week by a 1 loss team, folks here would lose their sh!t.

I agree with you, but let's speak hypothetical. Say SMU beats Temple Saturday (note: I don't think they will) and then beats Houston. They should be borderline top 15 team when they head here. Let's say Memphis wins by 2 touchdowns. That would bump Memphis up a decent bit.

Now let's say Cincinnati comes to Memphis with just 1 loss and will more than likely be borderline top 15, but squarely inside the top 20. Let's say Memphis wins by 10 and then turn around the following week Cincy should still be ranked and Memphis beats them again in the championship game by 2 td's.

That's 3 wins against ranked teams in the last month or so of the season. It would definitely make it a discussion for the committee. I still think Boise gets the nod if all that happens, but there would be some discussion about flipping them, but in the end it would be extremely harsh to have a 1 loss team jump an undefeated team.

I love this line of thinking. So hopeful.
It’s like Quantum Mechanics, all outcomes are possible, and many are probable. So you’re saying we have a chance?
Yes, this is the path.

But if - IFs and BUTs, were Candy and Nuts, then we’d all have a Merry Christmas!

Or in this specific case, a Happy New Years!!!!!!!! (Day)

(10-14-2019 05:02 PM)AlonsoWDC Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 11:16 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 08:46 PM)AlonsoWDC Wrote:  Yeah I mean they set that precedent with freaking Western Michigan.

What precedent did they set? In 2016 Western Michigan was a 13-0 G5 champion. All the others had multiple losses.

Right.

But the MAC is a freaking joke compared to the AAC or MWC.

Well, David Moore is suspended from his crappy MAC team so find another punching bag.

You have Brady Davis left, I guess. He racked up 171 yards vs. 2-4 SIU this past weekend.

He's averaging about 165 yards a game in FCS football. 5 td's and 3 ints. this year.

OOH.

Or you have a guy that is:

#1 in the AAC in completion %
#1 in passing efficiency
#2 in passing td's
#4 in passing yards

Ya'll are gonna lose your sh!t when he is named 1st team all-AAC.

Here's several applicable & interesting nuggets buried in an ESPN column about SP+ rankings.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...s-top-spot

Memphis is still #24

There are 6 (six) AAC teams in the Top 41.
ALL of them are ahead of Boise St. at 42.

"Meanwhile, the ACC's per-team average is just plus-4.5. It would be tied with the AAC at the moment if not for the existence of UConn, which drags the AAC's average down."

Also in another column he states that the AAC is basically as good or even better at the top/middle than the ACC excluding Clemson. I'd agree with that statement.

The PAC12 only has 6 teams in the Top 40 as well, and USC being 29 and Wash St 31 is very questionable as is Texas Tech at 34 and Miss St at 35.

So far the AAC is having possibly it's best year, even with UCF having 2 losses. This helps the OP.

(10-14-2019 11:53 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Or you have a guy that is:

#1 in the AAC in completion %
#1 in passing efficiency
#2 in passing td's
#4 in passing yards

Ya'll are gonna lose your sh!t when he is named 1st team all-AAC.

If he gets us to a New Year’s Bowl game, then all kudos to him. With a relatively easy schedule, we had a chance to go a New Year’s bowl game; the only concern was Brady. And unfortunately it came to fruition. He had great stats last year too but we went 8-6 with 2 NFL caliber RBs. Results matter; there’s still a chance for a big Bowl game but we can’t afford to lose any more games.

(10-15-2019 03:33 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 11:53 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Or you have a guy that is:

#1 in the AAC in completion %
#1 in passing efficiency
#2 in passing td's
#4 in passing yards

Ya'll are gonna lose your sh!t when he is named 1st team all-AAC.

If he gets us to a New Year’s Bowl game, then all kudos to him. With a relatively easy schedule, we had a chance to go a New Year’s bowl game; the only concern was Brady. And unfortunately it came to fruition. He had great stats last year too but we went 8-6 with 2 NFL caliber RBs. Results matter; there’s still a chance for a big Bowl game but we can’t afford to lose any more games.

I'm not the biggest Brady fan, but man even with the turnovers Brady put the team on his back and had them in position to potentially win the game until the refs decided otherwise.

(10-14-2019 05:02 PM)AlonsoWDC Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 11:16 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 08:46 PM)AlonsoWDC Wrote:  Yeah I mean they set that precedent with freaking Western Michigan.

What precedent did they set? In 2016 Western Michigan was a 13-0 G5 champion. All the others had multiple losses.

Right.

But the MAC is a freaking joke compared to the AAC or MWC.

And again they were undefeated in 2016. Temple had 3 losses. San Diego State had 3 losses. In no universe is a 3 loss team going to be ahead of an undefeated team.

No precedent was set.

Using Sagarin's conference ratings, the AAC West is right on the heels of both divisions of the ACC. We are closer to the SEC-East than we are to the best MWC division. If the West champ wins the AAC CCG and finishes 12-1, it would be ridiculous for that team not to be playing in a NY6 game.

Of course, NCAA fb post-season is ridiculous.

1 SEC-WEST = 83.55
separation gap
2 BIG TEN-E = 80.84
3 BIG 12 = 79.81
4 PAC-12-N = 78.33
5 SEC-EAST = 77.77
6 PAC-12-S = 75.17
7 BIG TEN-W = 74.61
8 ACC-ATL = 73.80
9 ACC-COA = 73.30
10 AAC WEST = 73.25
huge separation gap
11 MWC-MTN = 68.67
gap
12 AAC EAST = 65.83
gap
13 MWC-WEST = 62.98
14 MAC-WEST = 61.51
15 SUN BELT-E = 61.44
16 I-A IND. = 59.56
17 CONF USA-E = 58.08
18 SUN BELT-W = 57.84
19 CONF USA-W = 56.50
20 MAC-EAST = 56.46

(10-15-2019 08:24 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 03:33 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 11:53 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Or you have a guy that is:

#1 in the AAC in completion %
#1 in passing efficiency
#2 in passing td's
#4 in passing yards

Ya'll are gonna lose your sh!t when he is named 1st team all-AAC.

If he gets us to a New Year’s Bowl game, then all kudos to him. With a relatively easy schedule, we had a chance to go a New Year’s bowl game; the only concern was Brady. And unfortunately it came to fruition. He had great stats last year too but we went 8-6 with 2 NFL caliber RBs. Results matter; there’s still a chance for a big Bowl game but we can’t afford to lose any more games.

I'm not the biggest Brady fan, but man even with the turnovers Brady put the team on his back and had them in position to potentially win the game until the refs decided otherwise.

Brady (the good parts) and the D were the reason the game was even close. If the D didn’t hold Temple to 16 pts (9 pts on short fields) and caused two TOs, this game would have been a runaway loss.

(10-15-2019 10:56 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 08:24 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 03:33 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 11:53 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Or you have a guy that is:

#1 in the AAC in completion %
#1 in passing efficiency
#2 in passing td's
#4 in passing yards

Ya'll are gonna lose your sh!t when he is named 1st team all-AAC.

If he gets us to a New Year’s Bowl game, then all kudos to him. With a relatively easy schedule, we had a chance to go a New Year’s bowl game; the only concern was Brady. And unfortunately it came to fruition. He had great stats last year too but we went 8-6 with 2 NFL caliber RBs. Results matter; there’s still a chance for a big Bowl game but we can’t afford to lose any more games.

I'm not the biggest Brady fan, but man even with the turnovers Brady put the team on his back and had them in position to potentially win the game until the refs decided otherwise.

Brady (the good parts) and the D were the reason the game was even close. If the D didn’t hold Temple to 16 pts (9 pts on short fields) and caused two TOs, this game would have been a runaway loss.

I agree about the defense stepping up, but that is their job. Brady's job is to protect the football and he didn't, but his job is also to put the team in position to succeed and win, which he did as well.

With QBs, especially Brady, you have to take the bad with the good. On Saturday he was bad, but he was also good.

(10-15-2019 10:06 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Using Sagarin's conference ratings, the AAC West is right on the heels of both divisions of the ACC. We are closer to the SEC-East than we are to the best MWC division. If the West champ wins the AAC CCG and finishes 12-1, it would be ridiculous for that team not to be playing in a NY6 game.

Of course, NCAA fb post-season is ridiculous.

1 SEC-WEST = 83.55
separation gap
2 BIG TEN-E = 80.84
3 BIG 12 = 79.81
4 PAC-12-N = 78.33
5 SEC-EAST = 77.77
6 PAC-12-S = 75.17
7 BIG TEN-W = 74.61
8 ACC-ATL = 73.80
9 ACC-COA = 73.30
10 AAC WEST = 73.25
huge separation gap
11 MWC-MTN = 68.67
gap
12 AAC EAST = 65.83
gap
13 MWC-WEST = 62.98
14 MAC-WEST = 61.51
15 SUN BELT-E = 61.44
16 I-A IND. = 59.56
17 CONF USA-E = 58.08
18 SUN BELT-W = 57.84
19 CONF USA-W = 56.50
20 MAC-EAST = 56.46

It wouldn't be ridiculous for an undefeated Boise team to get the nod over a 12-1 AAC west champion.

(10-15-2019 11:13 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 10:56 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 08:24 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 03:33 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 11:53 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Or you have a guy that is:

#1 in the AAC in completion %
#1 in passing efficiency
#2 in passing td's
#4 in passing yards

Ya'll are gonna lose your sh!t when he is named 1st team all-AAC.

If he gets us to a New Year’s Bowl game, then all kudos to him. With a relatively easy schedule, we had a chance to go a New Year’s bowl game; the only concern was Brady. And unfortunately it came to fruition. He had great stats last year too but we went 8-6 with 2 NFL caliber RBs. Results matter; there’s still a chance for a big Bowl game but we can’t afford to lose any more games.

I'm not the biggest Brady fan, but man even with the turnovers Brady put the team on his back and had them in position to potentially win the game until the refs decided otherwise.

Brady (the good parts) and the D were the reason the game was even close. If the D didn’t hold Temple to 16 pts (9 pts on short fields) and caused two TOs, this game would have been a runaway loss.

I agree about the defense stepping up, but that is their job. Brady's job is to protect the football and he didn't, but his job is also to put the team in position to succeed and win, which he did as well.

With QBs, especially Brady, you have to take the bad with the good. On Saturday he was bad, but he was also good.

I get that...he's what he is. He's an average G5 QB (with relatively no upside but a solid floor barring a ton of mistakes) and that's fine in most seasons. We had an opportunity for an unbeaten season cuz of our relatively weak schedule and my fear was he would be one of the primary reasons we won't be able to get there. It is what it is at this point. Let's hope we win out and still somehow get a shot to play for a New Year's bowl game.

(10-15-2019 11:19 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 11:13 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 10:56 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 08:24 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 03:33 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  If he gets us to a New Year’s Bowl game, then all kudos to him. With a relatively easy schedule, we had a chance to go a New Year’s bowl game; the only concern was Brady. And unfortunately it came to fruition. He had great stats last year too but we went 8-6 with 2 NFL caliber RBs. Results matter; there’s still a chance for a big Bowl game but we can’t afford to lose any more games.

I'm not the biggest Brady fan, but man even with the turnovers Brady put the team on his back and had them in position to potentially win the game until the refs decided otherwise.

Brady (the good parts) and the D were the reason the game was even close. If the D didn’t hold Temple to 16 pts (9 pts on short fields) and caused two TOs, this game would have been a runaway loss.

I agree about the defense stepping up, but that is their job. Brady's job is to protect the football and he didn't, but his job is also to put the team in position to succeed and win, which he did as well.

With QBs, especially Brady, you have to take the bad with the good. On Saturday he was bad, but he was also good.

I get that...he's what he is. He's an average G5 QB (with relatively no upside but a solid floor barring a ton of mistakes) and that's fine in most seasons. We had an opportunity for an unbeaten season cuz of our relatively weak schedule and my fear was he would be one of the primary reasons we won't be able to get there. It is what it is at this point. Let's hope we win out and still somehow get a shot to play for a New Year's bowl game.

Even with his mistakes though, Brady and the defense put the team in position to win the game and stay undefeated, but the refs, or well the replay ref, decided to essentially break the rules of replay and take that chance away.

Again I'm not a huge Brady fan, but the guy put the offense on his back to get them in position to win.

Temple's game plan was to make Brady beat them and he had Memphis in the position to do just that, even with the mistakes early.

(10-15-2019 11:37 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 11:19 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 11:13 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 10:56 AM)tiger1016 Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 08:24 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  I'm not the biggest Brady fan, but man even with the turnovers Brady put the team on his back and had them in position to potentially win the game until the refs decided otherwise.

Brady (the good parts) and the D were the reason the game was even close. If the D didn’t hold Temple to 16 pts (9 pts on short fields) and caused two TOs, this game would have been a runaway loss.

I agree about the defense stepping up, but that is their job. Brady's job is to protect the football and he didn't, but his job is also to put the team in position to succeed and win, which he did as well.

With QBs, especially Brady, you have to take the bad with the good. On Saturday he was bad, but he was also good.

I get that...he's what he is. He's an average G5 QB (with relatively no upside but a solid floor barring a ton of mistakes) and that's fine in most seasons. We had an opportunity for an unbeaten season cuz of our relatively weak schedule and my fear was he would be one of the primary reasons we won't be able to get there. It is what it is at this point. Let's hope we win out and still somehow get a shot to play for a New Year's bowl game.

Even with his mistakes though, Brady and the defense put the team in position to win the game and stay undefeated, but the refs, or well the replay ref, decided to essentially break the rules of replay and take that chance away.

Again I'm not a huge Brady fan, but the guy put the offense on his back to get them in position to win.

Temple's game plan was to make Brady beat them and he had Memphis in the position to do just that, even with the mistakes early.

Don't disagree with any of that. IMO, we shouldn't have had to be in that position. It is what it is at this point.