(10-22-2019 05:19 PM)Miggy Wrote: ... regardless of what combination of Temple players who this year shoot Alston’s three’s, those three’s are going to be shot at a higher rate, and Temple is going to score more points. I say this because every Temple player who shoots three’s convert lax three’s at a higher rate than Alston did.
Also believe that Temple will take way more three’s this year
We’ll have to keep a close on Rose and Scott to see who’s shooting better to determine who should shoot more. Comparing foul-shot production has to be factored in as well. Also no reason for Scott to play less minutes thatn Rose If Scott more productive than Rose.
With Scott likely to play thirty minutes per game, some seven minutes less than Shizz did, it’s unlikely he will average 14.8 fga’s per game in conference play and average as many points ask Alston did in conference play.
When D.Dunn returns, his production and efficiency shooting has to be compared to Rose, to see if there should be a change in allocating each one’s playing time.
I don't expect the team to improve its 3 point shooting %, mostly because the 3 point line will be 10 inches further back. Thus, any improvements in shooting form may well be negated by the greater distance of shots taken. I will be very happy if the team's FG3% is about the same as last season, insofar as Temple was one of the better 3 point shooting teams in conference last season.
Regarding the number of three point shots, there is risk of over-relying on perimeter shooting, because it can allow opponents to over-defend the perimeter with double teams and pressure in the back court. I'm not sure how often our guard/wings will be able to make an assist to D Moore or Hamilton if they are under high defensive pressure.
It's analogous to football, in which over-reliance on the passing game can result in defeat, because the opponent tends to adjust by easing up on the run defense. There needs to be both effective rushing and passing in order to keep the defense "honest."
To get open perimeter shots, our guard/wings will have to penetrate fairly often to the basket and shoot, draw a foul, or dish to a big man. If they hoist up 3's too predictably, they will get burned by any team that has good perimeter defenders.
Fortunately, Rose, Scott, and NPL are able to penetrate the defense, and we have some offensive firepower in our bigs near the basket.
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Regarding adjustments regarding who takes the most shots, these may happen between games and/or within the space of a game. Last season, FD seems to have been too predictable, by instructing all but the big 3 to take relatively few shots, making our offense too predictable. Hopefully, McKie will be a bit more flexible, encouraging all players to get the ball and shoot it, while making sure that guys like Perry shoot mostly 2 point shots, etc. The guys who are best at creating their own shots generally take the most shots, but if they're streaky and sometimes "cold" as Nate was for some entire halfs, the ball should go to guys who are hitting theirs.
Regarding playing time, if Scott becomes the star of the team, the way Alston was last season, then he may play closer to 35 mpg. Rose seems to play better if he rests ~ 10 minutes in most games, and if his foot is sore at times, his PT could drop to 25-30 mpg. NPL will probably play ~35 mpg. When Rose rests, Scott and NPL would play the wings with Alani @ PG, who I expect to play ~ 18-22 mpg, unless and until Dunn becomes a significant contributor.
If my optimism about Scott being part of a "big 3" this season, then he should probably play at least 33 to 35 mpg this season. Coach McKie should pick up on this pretty quickly, because Scott is the kind of player who can win otherwise lose-able games for the team.
When Dunn returns, with a foot near 100% (by December 15th or 20th ??) as Coach says he will be strict about, his playing time will probably be very short at first, to see how well he can do, and at best, might increase very gradually until conference play starts to maybe ~4-8 mpg.
Keeping NPL in mind, he was fully healthy as a freshman, but didn't play much until the conference schedule began. Because there was a need to get more PT from the freshmen at that point, NPL's PT increased markedly to over 20 mpg by the end of season and he became a major impact player.
Since Dunn is recovering from surgery, he will get a later start than Nate did, and you can bet that Aaron M will monitor that foot very carefully and be cautious about playing him until there are no signs of foot discomfort or re-injury after each game.
Thus, unless he has a very rapid recovery, the prospects of him playing major minutes the way Nate did by mid-season may not be great. However, if he does extremely well in early conference play, it's possible that he could play 20+ minutes per game later in the season.
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Generally, I've learned to set my expectations a bit low most seasons, with the hope that they will be surpassed.
I do expect Temple's big 3 to average about 48-51 ppg this season, which is very optimistic, but I'm not convinced that Temple's big men will contribute more than 22 or 23 ppg, on average, or that Temple's back up guard/wings will score much more than 6-7 ppg. This adds up to anywhere between 76 and 81 ppg, probably slightly higher than last season. But I'm very concerned that the rebounding and defense of Temple's bigs will decline compared to last season, due to the absence of Ern Aflakpui.