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Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
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jedclampett Online
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Post: #61
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
...in conference play Temple averaged 35.3 percent shooting three’s.
That was do to Moorman and Alani shooting 42.4 percent in conference play., and not Alston, Rose, and and NPL, who all shot below 35 percent.

This demonstrates clearly that Temple would have scored more points if both Moorman and Alani had shot three’s more often they did and they had shot them more than Rose, Nate, and Alston did. This was obvious as Moorman shot 41 percent on three’s for the whole season yet shot few shots.

What’s ironic is that HC FD said before the season that his goal was to have Temple shoot 37 percent on three’s. That goal would have been easily exceeded if Moorman and Alani had shot two or three times the number of three’s they shot. Not having those who shot a higher percentage on three's cost Temple wins, as Alston and Ride has some bad three-point shooting games.

My main point this can not be allowed to repeat itself this season. Given Moorman’s and Alani’s ‘s stellar season shooting three’s , they both should more three’s Rose and NPL do, from the outset of the season than Rose and NPL do. And the ultimate pecking order should be based on merit, not favoritism.


============================================

I get your point, but I do not expect Alani to shoot more threes than QR will, although Moorman might.

Alani has rarely made more than 3 FG3A per game over the past 3 seasons. Last season, he averaged 1.9 FG3A in conference play.

In comparison, Rose took 4.9 and NPL took 2.7 FG3A per game in conference play last season.

J.P. Moorman is a different story. He averaged 3.3 FG3A in conference play, which was more than NPL took. His 3.3 FG3A was only a notch or two lower than Rose's 4.9 per game. All he'd have to do would be to take 1.6 more FG3As per game to match QR's 4.9 last season.

===================

It wouldn't bother me if Alani caught up with NPL, or if Moorman passed QR on this statistic in the coming season.

It seems much more likely that Moorman could end up in a virtual tie for the most 3 point shots per game with either Scott or Rose than that Alani would take twice as many 3 point shoths as he took last season.

It's not that Alani is timid, although FD might possibly have discouraged him from shooting unless wide open. It has more to do with his diminutive height, which makes it a lot easier for opposing defenders to block his view of the basket or block his shot with the wave of a hand.

In Moorman's case, the numbers show that he did take more 3 point shots than two of Temple's guards did, so he wasn't extremely hesitant to put up perimeter shots. If he was, it may have been because FD discouraged him shooting more than he did - but I have no info on that.

What makes Moorman's FG3A seem much too low is the fact that Shizz, by comparison, put up 8.7 three point attempts per game in conference play.

===================

One thing we would probably agree on is that some players are going to have to ratchet up the number of 3FGA per game, to compensate for the fact that the team lost its leading three point shooter in terms of the number of shots taken.

My guess is that Rose might increase from 4.9 to 5.9 or so, maybe Alani increases to 2.5 or so, perhaps NPL might increase to 3 or 3.5, and Moorman could increase to 4.5 to 5 or higher, if he gets the green light.

That still wouldn't make up for Alston's 8.7 per game, but the gap might be filled by Scott or by the combo of Scott and Dunn.
10-20-2019 02:25 AM
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Miggy Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
(10-20-2019 02:25 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  ...in conference play Temple averaged 35.3 percent shooting three’s.
That was do to both Moorman and Alani shooting 42.4 percent in conference play, and not Alston, Rose, and and NPL, who all shot below 35 percent.

This demonstrates clearly that Temple would have scored more points if both Moorman and Alani had shot three’s more often and had shot them more than Rose, Nate, and Alston did.

It’s ironic is that HC FD said before the season that his goal was to have Temple shoot 37 percent on three’s. That goal would have been easily exceeded if Moorman and Alani had shot two or three times the number of three’s they shot. Not doing so cost Temple wins, as Alston and Rose had some bad three-point shooting games.

My hope is that this will not be repeated this season. There should be no favoritism.


============================================

I get your point, but I do not expect Alani to shoot more threes than QR will, although Moorman might.

Alani has rarely made more than 3 FG3A per game over the past 3 seasons. Last season, he averaged 1.9 FG3A in conference play.

In comparison, Rose took 4.9 and NPL took 2.7 FG3A per game in conference play last season.

J.P. Moorman is a different story. He averaged 3.3 FG3A in conference play, which was more than NPL took. His 3.3 FG3A was only a notch or two lower than Rose's 4.9 per game. All he'd have to do would be to take 1.6 more FG3As per game to match QR's 4.9 last season.

===================

It wouldn't bother me if Alani caught up with NPL, or if Moorman passed QR on this statistic in the coming season.

It seems much more likely that Moorman could end up in a virtual tie for the most 3 point shots per game with either Scott or Rose than that Alani would take twice as many 3 point shoths as he took last season.

It's not that Alani is timid, although FD might possibly have discouraged him from shooting unless wide open. It has more to do with his diminutive height, which makes it a lot easier for opposing defenders to block his view of the basket or block his shot with the wave of a hand.

In Moorman's case, the numbers show that he did take more 3 point shots than two of Temple's guards did, so he wasn't extremely hesitant to put up perimeter shots. If he was, it may have been because FD discouraged him shooting more than he did - but I have no info on that.

What makes Moorman's FG3A seem much too low is the fact that Shizz, by comparison, put up 8.7 three point attempts per game in conference play.

===================

One thing we would probably agree on is that some players are going to have to ratchet up the number of 3FGA per game, to compensate for the fact that the team lost its leading three point shooter in terms of the number of shots taken.

My guess is that Rose might increase from 4.9 to 5.9 or so, maybe Alani increases to 2.5 or so, perhaps NPL might increase to 3 or 3.5, and Moorman could increase to 4.5 to 5 or higher, if he gets the green light.

That still wouldn't make up for Alston's 8.7 per game, but the gap might be filled by Scott or by the combo of Scott and Dunn.




One problem in conference play last season was that Moorman and Alani only shot a fga once every 4 minutes. They should have shot more often as they converted 3’s at a higher rate, 42.4 percent than not only of any other Temple player. But st higher rate higher than any player in the AAC. That’s equivalent to shooting a whopping 63.4 percent on 2’s.

Their not shooting often was the. choice of the HC who had Temple’s big three-Alston, Rose, and NPL, taking Temple’s most shots.

So, it’s imperative that Alani and Moorman, if they’re on, shoot three’s more often this season.

Even though Alani is only 5’10,” he can get more open looks via passing the ball inside and than back-out, down-screens, and picks, and pick and pops.

If both Moorman and Alani shoot more three’s this season, they should taken most of the 8.6 three’s Alston shot last season. If so, Temple should score more points per game as Alston shot only 33 percent on three’s in conference play.

Both Rose and NPL’s have ugly shooting forms on three’s. They both have worked hard to get their 3-point shooting percentages to 34 percent
in conference play. Their 3-point shooting percentages need to be closely monitored, as Rose only shot 17-percent on three’s in non-conference games, and 30-percent on three’s in conference games.

NPL shoot’s two’s at 50 percentage and three’s sat 3’s at 33 percent, an equivalent percentage, he should shoot two’smore since NPL gets to the foul-line more attempting 2’s,

James Scott is a very good 3-point shooter, as well as D. Dunn when he recovers from his foot injury.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 02:12 PM by Miggy.)
10-20-2019 12:44 PM
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Miggy Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
When I speak of “shooters,” I’m referring to the best three-point shooters. If I refer to D.Dunn, a terrific two-point jump shooter, I’ll make a specific reference to that.

I consider a “scorer,” a player who is a good three-point shooter, scoring at the hoop, and/or getting to foul-line.

Moorman and Alani are excellent three-point shooters, but Moorman is also a”scorer.”

NPL and Rose are “scorers.” They both shot 3’s just under 35 percent in conference play. Both shot a lower percentage on three’s for the season (Rose 27 percent, NPL 31 percent).

Houston had two players who shot many three’s, and shot them at 39 percent. No.1 Virginia shot three’s above 40 percent. In order for Temple to be a top 25 team in the nation, they need their primary voters to shoot at least 37 percent. On that basis, I don’t consider Rose and NPL three- point shooters.

I do consider Nate a “good scorer”, as he only takes 10 fga’s per game, he manages to average 5.6 foul shots per game. That ratio is off the chart. He also shoots two’s at 50 percent, and three’s at 34.7 percent in conference play.

Rose is also very good at getting to the foul-line as he averaged 4.8 foul-shots per game in conference play. But he took over 14.5 fga’s per game in conference play to achieve taking his 4.8 foul shots per game. That’s still good.

And although Rose shot 34.8 percents on three’s, he shot a lowly 43 percent taking 9.6 two-point shots per game, and that’s not good. But he did shoot close to 50 percent in non-conference games played earlier in the season. Given that he shot so many two-pointers poorly in conference play, I can not call him a good shooters.

Statisticians break down two-point shooting into shots taken in the paint near the rim, from 2-point shots from further away from
the basket.

For the season, Rose shot 111-174 or 63.8 percent, on shots taken from close to the rim. That’s excellent.

But Rose shot 52-177, or 29.3 percent, on long two-pointers which is very poor. The later comprises roughly a little more than 5 shots per game.

Given that Rose shot poorly on longer 2’s, Temple would be better off and score more points, if excellent 2-point shooters like D.Moore (70 percent) and Hamilton (60 percent) take some of Rose’s five shots, or Moorman and Alani, shoot them as three’s. as they convert 3’s at a high-rate (42.4 percent).

Rather than shoot long two’s Rose could also go to the hoop two more times, or shoot three’s if he he’s on.

I advocated all last year that Rose should not be among Temple’s leaders in taking Temple’s most fga’s. The proof is now in that such was true. Rose shooting less shots will make him a more efficient shooter, and result him committing fewer turnovers. Also, increase his pro potential.

He should also greatly reduce the number of long 2’s he takes, and instead shoot from close to the basket or shoot more three’s, as he converts them at a much higher rate

James Scott was a very good 3-point shooter at KSU, but in the recent open scrimmage I could see his shooting form was off. It ‘s easy to correct.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 02:20 PM by Miggy.)
10-20-2019 04:26 PM
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jedclampett Online
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Post: #64
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
(10-20-2019 12:44 PM)Miggy Wrote:  The problem last season in conference play is that Moorman and Alani took fga’s once every 4 minutes or so when they were on the court. They should have shot more often as they converted 3’s at a higher rate than other Temple players, and a higher rate than anyone else in AAC. They shot three’s at an identical 42.4 percent, which is equivalent to shooting a whopping 63.4 percent on 2’s.

Their not shooting very often was not their choice as Temple’s big three Alston, Rose, and NPL were Temple’s HC’s preferred shooters.

So, it’s not how often they shot three’s last season, it’s more imperative they shoot three’s often this season given they shoot three’s better than any other returnee.


I mostly agree about Moorman. FD could and probably should have encouraged him to put up 1 or 2 more 3 point attempts per game, because that would have loosened up the defenders on the back court players.

Will he increase from 3.3 to 8.7 three point attempts per game? Possibly, but it seems more likely that McKie will encourage him to take closer to 5 or 6 FG3A/game.

I'm expecting Temple's guards to once again score ~55-60 ppg. Coach McKie seems to want to score a few more ppg this season with a higher tempo offense - let's say the goal is closer to 78-80 ppg.

To score that many points, Temple's big men (C, PF) would have to score ~ 20 to 24 ppg on average, which should be possible. As a starter, Moorman might be able to score 10-12 ppg in 25 mpg, assuming that Perry plays the other 15 mpg as backup PF. At the PF position, Perry could probably score 5 ppg. Add his and Moorman's points, and the two PFs could increase their scoring to 14-15+ ppg. That would really help the Owls win some games, especially on nights when back court scoring might sag a bit.

Another possibility is that Moorman himself could score 12-15 ppg, with the two PFs averaging 18-20 ppg. That would make the Owls very tough to beat by all but the best opponents. Some teams have had PFs that have combined for 18-20 ppg, so this is within the realm of possible.

The Centers, I assume, will average ~11-13+ ppg, which would result in total PF+C scoring in the 23-25+ ppg range. Put that together with 55+ ppg from the back court, and the Owls seem likely to score 78-80+ ppg, on average. This seems like an overestimate, and may be too high if Dunn doesn't score many points, but it's only a few ppg more than last season.

====================

I think that Alani's situation is very, very different from Moorman's.

While it's true that he is a good three point shooter, he has rarely scored more than 10 ppg, and averaged about 5 ppg last season.

Alani isn't a very capable perimeter defender, due to his short stature, and so his minutes have had to be limited. Last season, Alani played ~15-20 mpg as the main backup for Alston, NPL, and partial backup for Rose, or occasionally when Temple went with 4 guards.

This season, his minutes will again be limited for the same reason - - the crucial importance of perimeter defense. Since most of us expect Scott to play in the 30-35 mpg range, Alani's minutes are unlikely to increase and may be more likely to decrease significantly, especially when Dunn begins to play significant minutes in the back court.

For example, we might see something like this by mid-season:

Scott 33 mpg, NPL 34 mpg, Rose 32 mpg, Alani 11 mpg, Dunn 11 mpg

The way you have described Dunn, it might be possible for him to play more like 15+ mpg. If so, most of that playing time will probably be diverted from Alani to Dunn.

So, as I see it, Alani will be a utility/role player who will once again be the main back up guard until Dunn enters the core rotation. At that point, the back up guard minutes will gradually shift from Alani to Dunn, and Dunn might end up playing twice as many minutes as Alani does by the end of the season.

Certainly, Alani will still be the primary backup PG, and will appear intermittently when ball control becomes a top priority. Beyond that, if Dunn doesn't become an impact player this season, Alani could play 20 mpg much of the way.

There is an adage that goes like this: The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.

It's actually a flimsy and flawed notion, but there is a measure of truth in it. Only rarely does an athlete become a completely differently player from one season to the next.

I don't know how many ppg you think Alani will score, but my educated guess is that he'll score somewhere between 5 and 10 ppg this season.
10-20-2019 10:14 PM
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Miggy Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
I up-dated my prior post, and have included new Q. Rose stats that hopefully readers will find interesting. They provide compelling evidence why Rose should shoot fewer long two-pointers, as he averaged 5 long two-pointers per game, and shot them at only 29 percent.

Do think it’s better to wait and see who both McKie starts and has come off the bench, before before assigning starters, playing minutes, or number of shots a player should shoot. Your predictions on total Temple points are probably in the ballpark.

Disagree with you on Alani not being a good perimeter defender. Played defense slightly better than Alston did last season. Will also average more steals, and commit less turnovers per 40 minutes of play than Alston. Unlike Alston, I expect him to make more steals than turnovers like he did in conference play last season, and he did that in a 2-1 ratio.

This past season, Alani took a good number of shots and shot well in Temple practices, but rarely shot in games. Did seems if he missed a shot early on he was subject to a quick hook.

Alani did start the Georgetown scrimmage at PG. Expect James Scott to come off the bench and play substantial minutes. Makes sense to bring Scott’s scoring off the bench. Temple did not have that last season. If Scott started would be too much pressure on Dunn to score, plus he’ll probably miss first few games.

So, if A.Moore, NPL, Rose,Moorman, and D.Moore starting, that means coming off the bench wil be Scott, Perry, Hamilton, and Dunn. Tough nine-man rotation.

Can see Moorman, D.Moore,Hamilton, and Perry combining for 35-points per game. Hope they do.

Don’t see Dunn playing PG as he’s not quick, but if he does, will probably be limited minutes. Do see Dunn playing on the wing, as he’s a terrific shooter, and rebounds well.
(This post was last modified: 10-21-2019 07:24 PM by Miggy.)
10-21-2019 11:05 AM
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Miggy Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
It’s been reported that Temple looked very good in it’s scrimmage, and win over Georgetown. Such should be expected given that Temple players have been playing together for some time.
It’s also reported one of the two teams only played 7-players. Believe that would be Temple, but that’s not confirmed.

Assuming the scrimmage was played for 40-minute, the sane as a regulation game, the fact that each team scored around 70-points, would indicate that Temple played both good defense, and rebounded well. Such makes sense as HC has put an emphasis on defense. The apparent good rebounding well against Georgetown was an eye-opener, given that Georgetown that has four big-man being over 6’11,” and one of them is projected to be named to a All Big East conference team. Temple not going to face a team with that many bigs in the AAC.

The score also indicates that Temple didn’t turn the ball over much which is a hallmark of Temple men’s
bb.

To be able to defend the paint, and score against Georgetown bodes well for Temple going forward, as Temple travels this Saturday to scrimmage St.Johns, another Big East team.

If I learn more about the Georgetown scrimmage. I’ll post it here.

Love it, if it turns-out that McKie will start Alani Moore and JP Moorman, two big-time three-point shooter, plus NPL and Rose, who can both hit the three-ball, get to the hoop and the foul-line, and D. Moore who’s a 70 percent two-point shooter. Plus, a bench that takes no steps backward when they enter the game. No other AAC will have such high octane fire-fire in their rotation.

In addition, Temple has in it’s rotation four out of the best five ball-stealers in the AAC.

Go Owls! !
(This post was last modified: 10-21-2019 07:54 PM by Miggy.)
10-21-2019 07:22 PM
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Miggy Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
The offensive stats of Temple’s players make a compelling case that offensively Temple should be ranked in the top twenty-five of the nation’s best. As I see Temple having an offensive efficiency as somewhere between 110-113. Where in the top twenty-five is not so clear, but we should know sometime within Temple playing it’s first five games.

I’m assuming no player slides backward from last season.

Defense rating or ranking is not clear at all. I’ve see signs that Temple has made a marked improvement defending the rim and rebounding, but need to see Temple do so in games. Getting some feedback from the Georgetown and St. John’s scrimmages would help.
10-21-2019 09:03 PM
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jedclampett Online
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Post: #68
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
(10-21-2019 11:05 AM)Miggy Wrote:  Alani did start the Georgetown scrimmage at PG. Expect James Scott to come off the bench and play substantial minutes. Makes sense to bring Scott’s scoring off the bench. Temple did not have that last season. If Scott started would be too much pressure on Dunn to score, plus he’ll probably miss first few games.

So, if A.Moore, NPL, Rose,Moorman, and D.Moore starting, that means coming off the bench wil be Scott, Perry, Hamilton, and Dunn. Tough nine-man rotation.

The prospect of seeing McKie start those 5 players is absolutely dreadful to me., because those 5 players did not play very well as a unit last year.

Both Rose and NPL only functioned at a high level when they played alongside Alston. When Alani was in the game with them, the whole offense slowed down, and opponents were easily able to shut Rose and NPL down most of the time. Also, Alani has trouble passing into the interior, so D.Moore and Moorman got few open shots at the basket.

If McKie does start those five, I think that the team will routinely fall behind the better opponents until Scott comes into the game.

The starting lineup you mention might work against the weaker competition, but I doubt if they will mount a strong lead against, for example, Penn, St. Joe's, or LaSalle.

The two of us will have to "agree to disagree" about this, because we have strong feelings about it, and we'll just have to wait and see how they play.

You may see Alani as starting, playing a few minutes, and then Scott playing most of the PG minutes. If so, I can imagine it as a possibility.

My prediction is that, with Scott in the starting lineup, Temple will be able to compete with all but the top 10 teams in the country.

If I am correct, then I hope and expect that McKie will quickly learn that the suggested starting lineup puts the team as a disadvantage and makes a quick adjustment.

Last point about this - - once Dunn returns, he should be able to be that sparkplug off the bench that Coach McKie feels is necessary. At that point, I hope Alani and Dunn both come off the bench, with Scott starting.

If our HC tries the above starting lineup, and the results are as bad as I expect, the longer it takes him to adjust, the more severe the absence of Dunn will be for the team.
10-22-2019 02:37 AM
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Post: #69
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
(10-22-2019 02:37 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 11:05 AM)Miggy Wrote:  Alani did start the Georgetown scrimmage at PG. Expect James Scott to come off the bench and play substantial minutes. Makes sense to bring Scott’s scoring off the bench. Temple did not have that last season. If Scott started would be too much pressure on Dunn to score, plus he’ll probably miss first few games.

So, if A.Moore, NPL, Rose,Moorman, and D.Moore starting, that means coming off the bench wil be Scott, Perry, Hamilton, and Dunn. Tough nine-man rotation.

The prospect of seeing McKie start those 5 players is absolutely dreadful to me., because those 5 players did not play very well as a unit last year.

Both Rose and NPL only functioned at a high level when they played alongside Alston. When Alani was in the game with them, the whole offense slowed down, and opponents were easily able to shut Rose and NPL down most of the time. Also, Alani has trouble passing into the interior, so D.Moore and Moorman got few open shots at the basket.

If McKie does start those five, I think that the team will routinely fall behind the better opponents until Scott comes into the game.

The starting lineup you mention might work against the weaker competition, but I doubt if they will mount a strong lead against, for example, Penn, St. Joe's, or LaSalle.

The two of us will have to "agree to disagree" about this, because we have strong feelings about it, and we'll just have to wait and see how they play.

You may see Alani as starting, playing a few minutes, and then Scott playing most of the PG minutes. If so, I can imagine it as a possibility.

My prediction is that, with Scott in the starting lineup, Temple will be able to compete with all but the top 10 teams in the country.

If I am correct, then I hope and expect that McKie will quickly learn that the suggested starting lineup puts the team as a disadvantage and makes a quick adjustment.

Last point about this - - once Dunn returns, he should be able to be that sparkplug off the bench that Coach McKie feels is necessary. At that point, I hope Alani and Dunn both come off the bench, with Scott starting.

If our HC tries the above starting lineup, and the results are as bad as I expect, the longer it takes him to adjust, the more severe the absence of Dunn will be for the team.

I actually started off also saying that Scott should start, but after watching Temple’s open scrimmage where I witnessed Alani move the ball and shoot a lot, I have no problems seeing if it will work with Alani as the starting PG. It’s also very disruptive to a team to pull the chair from under a senior, who has more than paid his dues.

McKie made it clear that he sought input before making that decision, but don’t think it’s set in stone, and if it doesn’t work, confident HC McKie will abandon it quickly.

Given that Alani started the Georgetown scrimmage, and I assume played many minutes (will find if he did), and Temple won, it looks like his starting worked-out just fine.

Must remember that Alani was a big-time HS recruit. He had 17 D-1 offers, including high-majors, including Seton Hall, and others. His freshman year he started, scored 18-points, and led Temple to a win over powerhouse West Virginia, at West Virginia.

Sure, it will be an adjustment for Scott coming off the bench, as he was a starter his second year at KSU.

Some of your observations from last season are true because Alani often passed on shooting the ball.

But Temple’s stats clearly showed that regardless if Alston was on the court, and scored many points, or Alani played, and scored fewer points, Temple performed as well and maintained virtually the same scoring margin over it’s opponents in conference play.

As, with Alston playing, Temple averaged 112.7 points and opponents averaged 105.7 points per 100 possessions in conference play, a Temple positive Temple scoring margin of 7-points.

With Alani playing, Temple averaged 111.1 points, and opponents averaged 104.3 points per 100 possessions per 100 possessions in conference play, a positive Temple scoring margin of 6.8 points. Temple men’s bb, Sports Reference.

Alani kept pace with Alston since he turned the ball over half as much times than Alston, and made almost one more steal than Alston, per 40 minutes of play.

You can either chose to trust your eyes or trust Temple’s stats.

Also, any fear you have of opponent three-point shooters having
an advantage over Alani because of his lack of height, is not well-founded if he plays defense correctly.Sorry, but can’t get into specifics here.

One thing I like about Scott coming off the bench is that he’ll probably be subbing in for Alani, NPL and Rose, still averaging 30 mpg, and I like that. As I want to see him on the court with Alani.

But, we need to be patient. Hopefully, we’ll learn how Alani did starting at PG when Temple travel to St. John’s this weekend.
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2019 06:20 AM by Miggy.)
10-22-2019 05:31 AM
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Miggy Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
ESPN has come out with a list of college basketball’s top 30 new faces. Lists players as 10 best freshman, 10 best transfer who can play immediately, and 10 best transfers who sat out a year.

Temple’s James Scott listed no. 7 among new faces who sat out a year. Says he joins Rose and NPL to form “intriguing,” backcourt.

Thanks to JedClampett for posting this on another message board.

Temple men’s bb starting to get some love. As poster on another message board after looking closely at Temple’s stats says Temple should be top 25 team.
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2019 10:50 AM by Miggy.)
10-22-2019 09:58 AM
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Post: #71
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
The good news going into this year is that Alston took 8.6 3-point attempts and converted on 33 percent of them per game, in conference play. I say this is good news because, regardless of what combination of Temple players who this year shoot Alston’s three’s, those three’s are going to be shot at a higher rate, and Temple is going to score more points. I say this because every Temple player who shoots three’s convert lax three’s at a higher rate than Alston did.

Also believe that Temple will take way more three’s this year, in part, because, I fully expect that most of Ern’s 3.9 fga’s will go Moorman, and be shot as three’s, not two’s as Ern shot.

It’s very important that Temple play up-tempo, and that such produces 7-10 more fga’s per game. It’s equally important that these fga’s be distributed to Temple’s secondary shooters who shoot the highest fg percentages on two’s and three’s.

Moorman and Alani will probably both get some additional 3-point fga’s from Temple playing at a higher tempo..Fully expect D.Moore and Hamilton to also shoot more fga’s as the result of Temple playing up-tempo. If Temple is to very successful this year, it’s imperative that Moorman, Alani, D. Moore, ands Hamilton take more fga’s than last season as they are likely to be Temple’s most efficient shooters.

If NPL can maintain his Total Shooting Percentage (TSP) of 55.2 as he did in conference play, I
wouldn’t mind him taking 1 or 2 more fga’s than the 10.3 fga’s he averaged last season.

Rose averaged 14.5 fga’s in conference play. He should only shoot so many in he can shoot this season 50 percent on two’s and 34.8 percent on three’s. If not,he should take less shots..
By driving to hoop, and shooting more three’s, and not shooting long two’s, his shooting percentage should rise.

We’ll have to keep a close on Rose and Scott to see who’s shooting better to determine who should shoot more. Comparing foul-shot production has to be factored in as well. Also no reason for Scott to play less minutes thatn Rose If Scott more productive than Rose.

With Scott likely to play thirty minutes per game, some seven minutes less than Shizz did, it’s unlikely he will average 14.8 fga’s per game in conference play and average as many points ask Alston did in conference play.

But that’s ok, as Temple needs from Scott his taking a good number of three’s, and Scott shooting a high percentage on three’s and two’s he does take, plus many assists.

When D.Dunn returns, his production and efficiency shooting has to be compared to Rose, to see if there should be a change in allocating each one’s playing time.
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2019 05:57 PM by Miggy.)
10-22-2019 05:19 PM
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Post: #72
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
(10-22-2019 09:58 AM)Miggy Wrote:  ESPN has come out with a list of college basketball’s top 30 new faces. Lists players as 10 best freshman, 10 best transfer who can play immediately, and 10 best transfers who sat out a year.

Temple’s James Scott listed no. 7 among new faces who sat out a year. Says he joins Rose and NPL to form “intriguing,” backcourt.

Temple men’s bb starting to get some love. As poster on another message board after looking closely at Temple’s stats says Temple should be top 25 team.

If Scott averaged 17 ppg at KSU and scored 20 ppg in their Q1 and Q2 games, then there's every reason to expect that he will do more or less the same at Temple, despite playing in a more competitive conference.

QR scored 17 ppg last season and is 1st team pre-season AAC, so Scott may be either 1st or 2nd team all AAC by end of season. Considering that Nate is 2nd team pre-season AAC, it is conceivable that Temple's 3 thard/wings will be the best, or one of the two best back courts in the conference.

If they make it into the NCAA tournament, these 3 players might well be one of the best back courts in the tournament, and one of the best in Temple's history.

The only place where I disagree is where Temple should be ranked now and will be ranked late in the season. I don't think TU is a top 50 team right now, due to Dunn's injury and questions about D. Moore's health.

Due to the shaky and inconsistent performances at the PF and C positions last season, a 23-8 or 22-9 season and 3rd or 4th place in AAC is the very best that I could imagine for this team, unless Dunn turns out to be a major impact player (he may not even be an impact player at all if his foot doesn't get back to 100%).

I'm pessimistic about the OOC schedule. We need to go 9-3 or 8-4 at the worst, but if Dunn and D. Moore are limited by injuries - as Dunn will be - there is no guarantee that Temple will win more than 6 or 7 of their 6 OOC games. Starting out with 6 or 7 early losses would push them out of the top 25 for the entire season.
10-22-2019 06:54 PM
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Post: #73
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
(10-22-2019 05:19 PM)Miggy Wrote:  ... regardless of what combination of Temple players who this year shoot Alston’s three’s, those three’s are going to be shot at a higher rate, and Temple is going to score more points. I say this because every Temple player who shoots three’s convert lax three’s at a higher rate than Alston did.

Also believe that Temple will take way more three’s this year

We’ll have to keep a close on Rose and Scott to see who’s shooting better to determine who should shoot more. Comparing foul-shot production has to be factored in as well. Also no reason for Scott to play less minutes thatn Rose If Scott more productive than Rose.

With Scott likely to play thirty minutes per game, some seven minutes less than Shizz did, it’s unlikely he will average 14.8 fga’s per game in conference play and average as many points ask Alston did in conference play.

When D.Dunn returns, his production and efficiency shooting has to be compared to Rose, to see if there should be a change in allocating each one’s playing time.

I don't expect the team to improve its 3 point shooting %, mostly because the 3 point line will be 10 inches further back. Thus, any improvements in shooting form may well be negated by the greater distance of shots taken. I will be very happy if the team's FG3% is about the same as last season, insofar as Temple was one of the better 3 point shooting teams in conference last season.

Regarding the number of three point shots, there is risk of over-relying on perimeter shooting, because it can allow opponents to over-defend the perimeter with double teams and pressure in the back court. I'm not sure how often our guard/wings will be able to make an assist to D Moore or Hamilton if they are under high defensive pressure.

It's analogous to football, in which over-reliance on the passing game can result in defeat, because the opponent tends to adjust by easing up on the run defense. There needs to be both effective rushing and passing in order to keep the defense "honest."

To get open perimeter shots, our guard/wings will have to penetrate fairly often to the basket and shoot, draw a foul, or dish to a big man. If they hoist up 3's too predictably, they will get burned by any team that has good perimeter defenders.

Fortunately, Rose, Scott, and NPL are able to penetrate the defense, and we have some offensive firepower in our bigs near the basket.

============================================

Regarding adjustments regarding who takes the most shots, these may happen between games and/or within the space of a game. Last season, FD seems to have been too predictable, by instructing all but the big 3 to take relatively few shots, making our offense too predictable. Hopefully, McKie will be a bit more flexible, encouraging all players to get the ball and shoot it, while making sure that guys like Perry shoot mostly 2 point shots, etc. The guys who are best at creating their own shots generally take the most shots, but if they're streaky and sometimes "cold" as Nate was for some entire halfs, the ball should go to guys who are hitting theirs.

Regarding playing time, if Scott becomes the star of the team, the way Alston was last season, then he may play closer to 35 mpg. Rose seems to play better if he rests ~ 10 minutes in most games, and if his foot is sore at times, his PT could drop to 25-30 mpg. NPL will probably play ~35 mpg. When Rose rests, Scott and NPL would play the wings with Alani @ PG, who I expect to play ~ 18-22 mpg, unless and until Dunn becomes a significant contributor.

If my optimism about Scott being part of a "big 3" this season, then he should probably play at least 33 to 35 mpg this season. Coach McKie should pick up on this pretty quickly, because Scott is the kind of player who can win otherwise lose-able games for the team.

When Dunn returns, with a foot near 100% (by December 15th or 20th ??) as Coach says he will be strict about, his playing time will probably be very short at first, to see how well he can do, and at best, might increase very gradually until conference play starts to maybe ~4-8 mpg.

Keeping NPL in mind, he was fully healthy as a freshman, but didn't play much until the conference schedule began. Because there was a need to get more PT from the freshmen at that point, NPL's PT increased markedly to over 20 mpg by the end of season and he became a major impact player.

Since Dunn is recovering from surgery, he will get a later start than Nate did, and you can bet that Aaron M will monitor that foot very carefully and be cautious about playing him until there are no signs of foot discomfort or re-injury after each game.

Thus, unless he has a very rapid recovery, the prospects of him playing major minutes the way Nate did by mid-season may not be great. However, if he does extremely well in early conference play, it's possible that he could play 20+ minutes per game later in the season.

============================================

Generally, I've learned to set my expectations a bit low most seasons, with the hope that they will be surpassed.

I do expect Temple's big 3 to average about 48-51 ppg this season, which is very optimistic, but I'm not convinced that Temple's big men will contribute more than 22 or 23 ppg, on average, or that Temple's back up guard/wings will score much more than 6-7 ppg. This adds up to anywhere between 76 and 81 ppg, probably slightly higher than last season. But I'm very concerned that the rebounding and defense of Temple's bigs will decline compared to last season, due to the absence of Ern Aflakpui.
10-22-2019 07:49 PM
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Post: #74
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
Houston’s five-star transfer Quentin Grimes has received an NCAA waiver and been declared eligible to play for Houston this season. In conference play at kansas last season, he averaged 27 mpg, scored 7.4 per game, shot less than 40 percent on two’s, averaged one foul-shot per game, and shot 44.4 percent at the foul-line. He barely ever stole the ball.

Grimes was basically a one-trick pony shooting 35.8 percent on three's.

Hope HC Sampson can make him into a player.

Basketball guru Jon Rothstein says Grimes thrusts Houston into one of the nation’s elite teams. Huh?

In the same ESPN article that rated Temple transfer James Scott as the no.7 best transfer in the nation who sat out a year, Grimes was rated no.3. Seems they should have been reversed. Actually, little reason to list Grimes at all.
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2019 09:52 PM by Miggy.)
10-22-2019 07:49 PM
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Post: #75
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
Went back and looked at Alston’s game stats in conference play. They show that Alston shot his two’s in almost every game, as he wound up shooting 54.5 percent on 2’s, and averaged taking 6 two’s per game.

Unfortunately, he should have taken way more two-point shots then he did. As he had three or four games when he shot like 2-11, 3-11, and 4-14 on three’s, thelast being the Belmont game.

Also, looked at Rose stats in conference games. He shot 3’s at 34.8 percent which was good for him. He smartly, unlike Alston did not continue to jack-up three’s when he was off. If he was 1-4 on three’s, he would stop shooting them. However, in Temple!s win over Houston he shot 1-7 on three’s. Can’t do that.,has to stop shooting three’s earlier. One can argue he should have stopped shooting three’s in those games when he was one for three shooting three’s..

Unlike Alston, he did not convert on two’s well as he shot a terrible 43.6 percent on two’s, and
took 9 two’s per conference game. Also, unlike Alston, he rarely made half his two’s in any game.

But that was not do to his driving poorly to the hoop in half court sets. That he did well.

What drove his 2-point shooting percentage down was his taking an average of 5 long two-point shots per conference game, and converting only 29.3 percent of them. He and Temple would have been off if he did not shoot these shots, and instead let other players shoot the ball. Hope he doesn’t repeat the same mistake this season.

He did have easy dunks via his steals on breakaways or drives half court sets. Rose also managed to get fouled that resulted in Rose’s taking 4 foul-shots per game, which helped negate his low-shooting percentage on two’s, as he shot 73 percent from the foul-line.

In a prior post, I suggested that instead of shooting long two’s, Rose should shoot more three’s, but that’s not wise as Temple has better three-point shooters, and while maybe he should drive to the hoop more as he does that well, he needs to avoid forcing doing so, when a clear lane is simply not exist.

Rose not shooting Temple’s most shots would be in both his interest,,and Temple’s best interest.
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2019 08:28 AM by Miggy.)
10-23-2019 05:48 AM
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Post: #76
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
Regardless, of whether Scott starts or not, the key to Temple’s success is how well Scott, Nate, and Rose mesh together. It’s my view they’ll play very well together. The ball should be in Scott’s hands, as he’s a natural PG, and not selfish. He needs to be the glue that makes Temple rum like a well oiled machine.

He will not only get Nate and Rose involved, but will also get other Temple players in the scoring mix.

He has great court vision, can penetrate and find the open guy near the hoop as few can. His first step is simply off the chart. If ball placed in his hands, he should exceed Alston’s outstanding assist totals last season. He’s always been great stealing the ball, but will be even more effective doing that at the PG position.

Fans will grow to love his game very quickly. Very unassuming player like Alston is. He’s known as “the assassin” or “J-Smooth.”

Temple will have three terrific players in their backcourt; three players who can get to the rim and shoot the ball. Three who love and are good at picking opponent’s pockets.

Scott best at shooting off the dribble from anywhere on the court. Described by Rose and others as a nightmare to defend. He, Rose, and Nate will kill it in the open court.

And with Alani and Perry added to the mix, Temple is in good stead.

Just hope there’s more balance in Temple’s scoring with both Moorman and Hamilton being fully integrated into the offense and playing as big of a role as the big three in the backcourt.

This year should be much fun to watch as this year’s Temple team is explosive.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 03:18 PM by Miggy.)
10-23-2019 06:21 AM
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Post: #77
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
Rumors are that Jake Forrester likely to be granted waiver by NCAA to play, not so for Strickland.

Forrester needs to learn how not to foul, and how to play under control.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 03:13 PM by Miggy.)
10-23-2019 07:32 AM
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Post: #78
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
The AAC conference has a lot of good team’s this year. It’s my view that Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, Wichita State, USF, and UConn, are among the best.

It’s my belief that Temple has the best overall offensive players in the conference. And I also believe that Temple is much stronger defensively.

My only fear is those conference teams that have good defenses.

In the AAC, both Houston and Cincinnati both had the two best defenses in the AAC last season, as both teams held opponents to only 64 ppg in conference play.

Do think as of right now Temple will battle Houston for the conference championship. Houston will have a strong defense again this season, but even so, Temple did beat Houston. In one of the two games played against Houston, Temple only lost at Houston because Temple fouled excessively, and thus got beat at the foul-line.

Last season, Temple commits way less turnovers than their opponents do. Houston did not do that last season and no reason to suspect they will this season. If Temple maintains that advantage Temple should do quite well playing Houston.

Do think Temple and Houston have the two best backcourts in the conference, with UC third.

Houston is weaker offensively, as they have lost Davis, Brooks and Robinson. Davis and Brooks averaged taking 16 three’s combined and converted on them 39 percent of the time.
Temple should shoot and make more three’s than Houston when the face each other.

Houston was not good getting to the foul-line last year, and should be only slightly better this season.

This should br a huge advantage for Temple, as long as Temple doesn’t needlessly foul Houston players.

Houston’s back-court is good but lacks the firepower of last year’s team. Jarreau and Hinton are back, and while Jarreau is excellent getting the rim,he takes few three’s, hardly makes steals, and has a high turnover rate.

Hinton is an average three-point shooting team, but won’t shoot many and doesn’t make many steals.

5-star transfer Quentin Grimes joins Houston's backcourt. He only shoots two’s at less than 40 percent, shoots three’s at 35 percent, and shot 60 percent on fouls shots for the season, but only 44.4 percent in conference play, and doesn’t make steals.

Houston’s HC going to use him Grimes differently . Wants him to be PG ball distributor, shoot less three’s, attack rim more, and rebound. If he’s going attack rim, his foul-shooting will need to improve.

Freshman Marcus Sasser is a good three-point shooter. Will need to see if Hinton and Grimes shoot way more three’s.

Houston returns a very good front-line that plays food D, and can score.

By shooting well, Alani was a big factor in Temple beating Houston last season.

While Cincinnati finished 2nd in the conference last season.
Cincinnati has a new HC who is not defensive minded. So Cincinnati not likely to hold teams to 64 ppg.

Also, Temple last year out shot Cincy percentage wise on two's, three’s, and at the foul-line.

Temple was 4th in the conference shooting two’s (49.8 percent), Cincy was 12th in the conference in shooting percentage on two’s (44.3 percent);Temple was third in the conference shooting three’s (35.3 percent), compared to Cincy finishing fifth in the conference shooting three’s (34 percent); and Temple was Temple was 3rd in the conference in shooting percentage at the foul-line, (73.5 percent), compared to Cincy being 7th in the conference in foul-shot percentage (70.9 percent).

Cincy have added Jaevin Cumberland, Jarron’s cousin, who’s a good three-point shooter, but they lost Jennifer, also a good three-point shooter.

Temple did a good job of defending Jarron last season, except for keeping him off the foul-line.

Also, expect Cincy’s new offense to be turnover prone, and therefore see it’s nice turnover margin over opponents dissipate.

Temple played Cincy once last season at home, and led the whole way until their fortunes turned. Don’t think that will happen this season.

Will modify this post in next few days, and look at other conference foes in subsequent posts.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 03:11 PM by Miggy.)
10-23-2019 09:27 AM
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Post: #79
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
Great interview with JP Moorman on Owlscoop podcast. He’d be a natural broadcaster. Carried the interview.

Says McKie wants team to think national championship. and there’s no pressure if you know your good. and every player on roster who can shoot. Said that key is finding the open man, and not playing selfishly. Music to my ears.

Says team much better on defense this year than last year, and out-rebounded in a scrimmage a huge Georgetown team.

He also said Temple’s offense is better as well, by indicating that Temple is more athletic on offense than last year.

Basically said James Scott best offensive player on team. Said he can shoot from anywhere off his dribble, and can get to the hoop. Also said he’s very good playmaker. Said Scott can easily score 15 points in 15 minutes.

After first naming all the good NBA players he has played with, he went on to praise Scott.

Said Dunn very good mature player who’s ready to play even though he’s just a freshman. Says Josh Pierre-Louse best athlete he has ever played with, and will be great his junior or senior year once he becomes more “cerebral.”

It will be hard to beat Temple, as they have the ability to score on three’s, at the foul-line, and on 2’s, and who commits less turnovers and holds it’s own on the glass. Looks like Temple will do that. Just have to avoid excessive fouling.

Coach McKie says he wished season began this week, an indication that he’s confident he has a helluva team.

Get your confidence up Temple fans, as Temple has the potential to do significant damage in the AAC, and in the NCAA tournament.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 02:31 PM by Miggy.)
10-23-2019 04:11 PM
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Post: #80
RE: Temple men’s bb 2019-2020
[quote='Miggy' pid='16391989' dateline='1571840828']
The AAC conference has a lot of good team’s this year. It’s my view that Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, Wichita State, USF, and UConn.

If we count top 100 as "good teams," the AAC has ~9 good teams.

SMU and UCF might surprise some people.


It’s my belief that Temple has the best overall offensive players in the conference. And I also believe that Temple is much stronger defensively inside.

Very possibly #1 or #2.

My only fear is those conference teams that have good defenses.

Especially because Temple's interior defense may give up 50% of 2 point shots.

I would add teams that have great rebounders and good ball control.


In the AAC both Houston and Cincinnati both had the two best defenses in the AAC last season, as both teams held opponents to only 64 ppg in conference play.

Question: Will Cincy's new HC emphasize defense as much as Cronin?

Do think as of right now Temple will battle Houston for the conference championship.

I see Memphis battling Houston and possibly Cincy for championship, with Temple battling for 3rd or 4th place.


Houston will have a strong defense again this season, but even so, Temple did beat Houston.


In one of the two games they played last season. And Temple only lost at Houston because Temple fouled excessively, and got beat at the foul-line.

We only play them at home, so maybe Temple can repeat.


Do think Temple and Houston have the two best backcourts in the conference, with UC third.

TU might have the top backcourt if Dunn becomes an impact player.


While Cincinnati finished 2nd in the conference last season, and although pundits rate Cincinnati in the nation top twenty teams, I see them falling in conference play this season.

Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi have Cincy and USF in their bracketologies, so I'm thinking that Cincy [b]might be the #3 team in conference, followed by (#4) USF, Temple, or Wichita State (because of Greg Marshall).[/b]

Cincinnati has a new HC who is not defensive minded. So Cincinnati not likely to hold teams to 64 ppg. Also, Temple last year out shot Cincy percentage wise on two's, three’s, and at the foul-line. That should continue this season.

Cincy strikes me as a real unknown, with new HC and so many new players. A big challenge will be to teach the players a new system and to get the players to gel into an efficient unit. I could envision Temple, Wichita State, and USF battling with Cincy for third place.
10-23-2019 08:45 PM
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