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Tigers are a 6 point favorite @ Temple
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tigernole79 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Tigers are a 6 point favorite @ Temple
Ok, what's funny is some fans want to believe the best and some the worst.

ole miss game. For the upbeat fans was a great test first game against a talented SEC team. Nervous fans, they sucked last year and this proves nothing. Well, since that game ole miss is 3-3. A close loss against a ranked Cal team and a spread cover against Bama. Victories over Vandy, AR and SE LA.
Navy game. Upbeat fans point to a good win over a traditional power. Nervous fans say they sucked last year and haven't proven anything. Navy is 3-1, with a victory over Air Force and ECU by a MUCH more convincing fashion that Temple.
Southern and S AL. Both fans say that showed us little, but dominating defensive performances in a half should be impressive regardless of opponent.
ULM - Upbeat fans say that ULM was deep and experienced and took FSU to OT AT FSU. Negative fans, FSU sucks (They are now 3-2) and ULM is SunBelt so we should automatically win.

It might be a glass half full issue, but we are now one of only 3 teams that are undefeated against the spread. We have top 35 offense and defense (according to CBS Sports) and things are looking very good. I say try to be a little positive and definitely enjoy the ride.
10-09-2019 12:02 PM
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ShilohTiger Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Tigers are a 6 point favorite @ Temple
(10-09-2019 08:28 AM)mairving Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 12:53 AM)ShilohTiger Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 12:33 AM)tigernole79 Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 10:17 PM)Nobody4Prez Wrote:  With the teams Temple has beat its hard to see we are favored by 6 points

Vegas is usually on the money so I hope we win at their house.

Gonna be a really tough game. They are physical and their defense is damn good

That's gotta be a joke?!

Temple has beat FCS Bucknell, Maryland (slightly impressive), GA Tech (1-4 including a loss to Citadel) and ECU who might be their toughest win and they only beat them 27-17. Not sure how that shows any toughness in schedule. They lost to 2-4 Buffalo 38-22.

While their defense is pretty good, ranked 20th, it's not like they've been tested: Maryland 41st, GA Tech 124, Buffalo 91st, ECU 97th.

Good info. I was just looking at this...
Temple’s Buffalo loss was due to turnovers...3 interceptions and 2 fumbles (1 lost). It wasn’t even close in the beginning of the 4th quarter....31-7. It was a meltdown and Buffalo ran over them, but some points were due to pick 6 and short field.

The Maryland win likely won’t hold up as quality as they were stupidly ranked bc they had beaten stupidly ranked Syracuse team by wild margins.
Here’s the craziness of College Football scores:
Maryland over Syracuse 63-20
Temple over Maryland 20-17
Buffalo over Temple 38-22
Syracuse over Liberty. 24-0
Liberty over Buffalo. 35-17

The more I dig, I think all of these teams are just bad.

Memphis is better than this but the road is dangerous.

I’d say there’s a 60% chance Memphis wins by 6, but maybe a 20% chance we lose. Kinda like the election.

Not entirely. They only had 31 rushing yards on 23 attempts and were 2-16 on 3rd down. Just a really bad game for them in general. Buffalo had 2 turnovers.

Good catch but I think the QB had -50 yards rushing due to a bunch of sacks, but yeah bad game, bad rushing....

We just can’t allow chunk plays or 300 yards passing which I thinks is asking a lot of this defense
10-09-2019 02:22 PM
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ShilohTiger Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Tigers are a 6 point favorite @ Temple
(10-09-2019 09:38 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Don't be skeered. I don't think Temple's D is as tough as some are making it to be. We're getting to the point in the season where raw stats mean something, although we're still a couple weeks away (have to get a few games into conference scheduling). So the OOC schedule still carries a lot of weight on stats.

One way I use to handicap the schedule is to see how our opponents opponents have performed. For example, we scored 35 against Navy and that's the most Navy has given up all year. On the other side of the ball, we allowed 23 to Navy and that's the fewest Navy has scored all year. So we rank 1st in O against Navy, and 1st in D - compared to all of their schedule. (Our best scoring game of the year.)

On offense we are (with 5 games for most opponents):
5th - Old Miss
1st - Southern
1st - USA
1st - Navy
2nd - Monroe
Popular narrative aside, our O has fared pretty well since the anemic 1st game of the year.

On defense we are:
1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th
As our eyes told us, last week was our worst D performance of the year. The guys out were missed and I hope Claybrooks returns this week.

Meanwhile, Temple's O - opponent - D:
1st - Bucknell - 3rd
2nd - Maryland - 2nd
4th - Buffalo - 5th
4th - Ga Tech - 1st
3rd - ECU - 3rd
On O, Temple has shown to be a little below average - especially since week 1. However, D is where they are supposedly strong. Not so fast. They've been inconsistent with a couple of good performances and one bad performance. All in, looks pretty average on D when you handicap the schedule this way.

Memphis wins, and covers yet again.

I like this line of thinking and your analysis
10-09-2019 02:25 PM
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ShilohTiger Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Tigers are a 6 point favorite @ Temple
(10-09-2019 07:49 AM)tmoneyinmphs Wrote:  First 5 games with 3 being at home, we won against 5 teams with a combined record of 11-15.

The next 7 games with 4 of the 6 on the road, tiger's future opponent record is 24-12. Also this group includes 2 teams challenging for the top spot in the conference.

It's time to forget what we have done so far. The goal is to win the conference regular season and win the conference championship. One game at a time. Regardless of all stats, i expect temple to be playing some good ball, and i expect a tough game on the road.

Good info to know...this is what makes the polls so unreliable....as a Memphis fan I want to be ranked high early so we can climb the ladder, and I like to reward our team for not stumbling
but at the same time, if it wasn’t Memphis, I’d be asking
“Who’d they play?”

The PAC 12 had a bunch of imposters in the bottom of the Top25 last week, and several other undefeated teams snuck in lately too.

Good analysis. Get past Temple and we can beat the dweller teams and take care of business at home and then deserve a higher ranking.
10-09-2019 02:34 PM
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tigernole79 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Tigers are a 6 point favorite @ Temple
(10-09-2019 02:34 PM)ShilohTiger Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 07:49 AM)tmoneyinmphs Wrote:  First 5 games with 3 being at home, we won against 5 teams with a combined record of 11-15.

The next 7 games with 4 of the 6 on the road, tiger's future opponent record is 24-12. Also this group includes 2 teams challenging for the top spot in the conference.

It's time to forget what we have done so far. The goal is to win the conference regular season and win the conference championship. One game at a time. Regardless of all stats, i expect temple to be playing some good ball, and i expect a tough game on the road.

Good info to know...this is what makes the polls so unreliable....as a Memphis fan I want to be ranked high early so we can climb the ladder, and I like to reward our team for not stumbling
but at the same time, if it wasn’t Memphis, I’d be asking
“Who’d they play?”

The PAC 12 had a bunch of imposters in the bottom of the Top25 last week, and several other undefeated teams snuck in lately too.

Good analysis. Get past Temple and we can beat the dweller teams and take care of business at home and then deserve a higher ranking.

But, very few teams have played anyone yet. Clemson's biggest games are Texas A&M and UNC. Bama biggest game honestly has been ole miss. Ohio State has played Cincy and Michigan State. Very few teams have had impressive games so far, it usually boils down to conference games.

We are ranked about right since we are undefeated. We earn our climb up the polls the rest of the season.
10-09-2019 03:27 PM
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Keeper Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Tigers are a 6 point favorite @ Temple
(10-09-2019 07:57 AM)bluecrew Wrote:  I just don't see it. Is it possible years of being kicked in the nuts as a Tiger fan won't allow me to see us in as good a light as others??

Yes it is possible, and it is time to get over it. I have had season tickets for decades and in all but one season I believed the Tigers were better than most of our fans did. You can do it also. Just man up and be a supporter of Tiger football.
10-09-2019 05:21 PM
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Mimi Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Tigers are a 6 point favorite @ Temple
We are better

They are certainly good enough to win, much better right now than say, USA was several weeks ago

Play clean, we likely get out with a win
10-09-2019 05:32 PM
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Keeper Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Tigers are a 6 point favorite @ Temple
(10-09-2019 09:38 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Don't be skeered. I don't think Temple's D is as tough as some are making it to be. We're getting to the point in the season where raw stats mean something, although we're still a couple weeks away (have to get a few games into conference scheduling). So the OOC schedule still carries a lot of weight on stats.

One way I use to handicap the schedule is to see how our opponents opponents have performed. For example, we scored 35 against Navy and that's the most Navy has given up all year. On the other side of the ball, we allowed 23 to Navy and that's the fewest Navy has scored all year. So we rank 1st in O against Navy, and 1st in D - compared to all of their schedule. (Our best scoring game of the year.)

On offense we are (with 5 games for most opponents):
5th - Old Miss
1st - Southern
1st - USA
1st - Navy
2nd - Monroe
Popular narrative aside, our O has fared pretty well since the anemic 1st game of the year.

On defense we are:
1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th
As our eyes told us, last week was our worst D performance of the year. The guys out were missed and I hope Claybrooks returns this week.

Meanwhile, Temple's O - opponent - D:
1st - Bucknell - 3rd
2nd - Maryland - 2nd
4th - Buffalo - 5th
4th - Ga Tech - 1st
3rd - ECU - 3rd
On O, Temple has shown to be a little below average - especially since week 1. However, D is where they are supposedly strong. Not so fast. They've been inconsistent with a couple of good performances and one bad performance. All in, looks pretty average on D when you handicap the schedule this way.

Memphis wins, and covers yet again.

Can you do this for Boise also. Boise is the only team (other than ole ms, utay, and louisville) i want to lose. Normally I don't care what Boise does.
10-09-2019 05:35 PM
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bluecrew Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Tigers are a 6 point favorite @ Temple
(10-09-2019 08:35 AM)TiminMem23 Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 07:57 AM)bluecrew Wrote:  I just don't see it. Is it possible years of being kicked in the nuts as a Tiger fan won't allow me to see us in as good a light as others??

You are not alone. Going to be tough to win at Temple. I don't think we are as good as our record or ranking indicates. Credit to the Tigers for being 5-0, but I think reality sets in this week.

I want to believe lol!
10-09-2019 05:42 PM
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Keeper Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Tigers are a 6 point favorite @ Temple
(10-09-2019 06:26 AM)cmt Wrote:  OK here we go, using ESPNs Power Index and threw in Sagarin

Memphis 41...29
W Mississippi 49...57
W Southern U NR...180
W South Alabama 125...170
W Navy 76...62
W LA Monroe 108...124

Temple 77...81
W Bucknell NR...244
W Maryland 44...39
L Buffalo 112...101
W Georgia Tech 111...99
W ECU 116...133

Memphis, tougher schedule
Temple, better win
Temple, waaaay worse loss
Temple's at home, Memphis isn't
Going to be a tough game to win, but if the predictors are right and we pull it out, we will be sitting pretty.

For all the scoreboard watchers

Memphis 41...29 vs Boise State 31...25 (primary rival OOC for ny6 bowl)

Memphis after Temple game
Tulane 48...47
Tulsa 83...78
SMU 39...37
Houston 64...59
USF 91...94
Cincinnati 28...30

Boise scheduler's
W Fla St 32...40
W Marshall 88...100
W Portland St NR...171
W Air Force 67...66
W UNLV 119...141

Still to play

Hawaii 69...69
BYU 58...78
San Jose St 107...121
Wyoming 75...60
New Mexico 117...136
Utah St 56...45
Colorado St 109...131

If both team win out including conference championship their records will be

Memphis 13-0
Boise State 14-0 (Boise gets an extra game for playing in Hawaii)

So an argument can be made that if this happens Memphis could overtake Boise, but that argument could go either way.

It would be best for Memphis to win out and for Boise to drop a game somewhere. Maybe against San Diego St (72-65) in the Mountain West Conference championship game. Let's hope it doesn't come down to that.
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2019 04:48 PM by Keeper.)
10-10-2019 04:38 PM
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bluecrew Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Tigers are a 6 point favorite @ Temple
(10-09-2019 05:21 PM)Keeper Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 07:57 AM)bluecrew Wrote:  I just don't see it. Is it possible years of being kicked in the nuts as a Tiger fan won't allow me to see us in as good a light as others??

Yes it is possible, and it is time to get over it. I have had season tickets for decades and in all but one season I believed the Tigers were better than most of our fans did. You can do it also. Just man up and be a supporter of Tiger football.

You nailed that one Socrates. And your advice to "get over it" was so well thought out.
10-14-2019 08:01 AM
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