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NY6 road
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C1ncy4Life Offline
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Post: #81
RE: NY6 road
(10-08-2019 03:20 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  I just don’t see how the committee would deny an undefeated Boise State over a one loss Cincinnati. Playing OSU gives UC zero room for error the rest of the way. Let’s say UC loses to Houston but wins out, If the OSU game was replaced with win over Akron then we would looking at 12-1 and basically the front runner if Boise State loses. A second loss basically kills off the NY6 chance unless someone other then Boise State wins the MWC.

If UC is 5-0 they would be ranked around 14 through 20. A loss would drop UC to around 20 to 25.

At 4-1 and ranked 25 they second loss puts UC out of the top 25.

Don’t give me the playoff nonsense until UC actually has the roster to win it.

You have to keep a few things in mind. First, this is all thereotical at this point since we have a long way to go and a lot of tough games left. Second, I think there is a decent chance that Boise will drop a game considering Marshall played them close.

Last, and likely the most important is that the Group of 5 NY6 bowl is based on the CFP rankings and not the AP Poll. This means the committee could easily have a 1 loss Cincinnati team over an Undefeated Boise team. In my opinion, if we go undefeated outside of the OSU game, OSU ends the season undefeated, we will find ourselves in a NY6 bowl. There is a good chance Boise loses, if not our resume still stacks up well against them including better wins and more wins and a tougher schedule.
 
10-08-2019 03:41 PM
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Bearhawkeye Offline
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Post: #82
RE: NY6 road
(10-08-2019 01:38 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 01:28 PM)Ragpicker Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 01:08 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 08:46 AM)cincy7718 Wrote:  "osu had one of their best teams ever. they wont always be that good. our program is still growing. we'll do better next time" -every UC fan since 2002

even if by some miracle we had won we still wouldnt sniff the playoff. "new coach, new QB, UC got lucky and caught them early in the year. one lucky game doesnt deserve a playoff spot" it would NEVER be viewed nationally as UC having a big win, but as osu stumbling.

did you guys not watch ucf? even after they beat auburn in the bowl, nobody respects them. had they won that game during the regular season it wouldnt have made a difference, and they hit the jackpot of going undefeated on a season when nobody else did. then they went undefeated the next season and still didnt even get considered. neither season was it a close call that came down to sos. they never even got looked at. sorry to be the one to tell you santa's not real, but college football playoff is fixed and we're on the wrong side.

scheduling buy games years in advance hoping the stars align is not a strategy to build our program. its just foolish. we eek out a win last year against ohio u and suddenly people want to charge columbus. schedule winnable games. that way on down years we dont get humiliated, and on up years we're setup for a conference win and legit run at a NY6 bowl. those are our season goals. anybody talking playoffs isnt accepting reality.
win as many games as possible and grow the program so that when realignment happens again our resume has the most wins and and very few 42-0 stompings. that loss hurts recruiting, pushed away casual fans and will be a serious black eye for the rest of the season as it will be mentioned on every televised game for the rest of the year -both our games and osu's. not the way to build national respect.

If we beat OSU at OSU we would be a legit playoff contender, assuming we won the rest of our games. We would likely have 4-5 wins against top 25 teams (OSU, UCF, Memphis, AAC Championship, and possibly Temple when we play) including a win on the road against #5 OSU as well as 2 wins against Power 5 schools in non conference. To be honest, that resume would compare favorably to a lot of Playoff teams, including last year’s national champion Clemson IMO. Would we need a few teams to drop a game, yes but that’s likely to happen anyway. It would definitely give us a legitimate shot that no other G5 has had.

I’d also disagree that UCF didn’t get any national respect after their win against Auburn. They received a ton of exposure after their bowl win. There were even some polls that back up their claim as finishing #1 that season. They also finished #6 in the College Football Final Ranking despite only 3 wins against Top 25 teams. All 3 of those wins came at home or neutral sites. 2 were by 1 possession or less and 1 was in Overtime and the highest ranked team in the regular season was #21.

Cincinnati’s theoretical 2019 undefeated season would be several orders of magnitude better with how things currently look. They would already have 2 better wins with a top 5 win on the road, a top 20 win as well as at least 2 more Top 25 wins (Memphis, AAC Championship game, with possibly another Top 25 team-Temple). I don’t think the resumes would even be close, yet UCF finished just 2 spots outside the CFP.

And at best UC would finish #5. Your analysis above is totally void of the most important statistic thus your conclusion is invalid. You forgot about.....
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.00

NEVER will the P5 let a non-P5 team into the money! NEVER

By allowing UCF, or Boise, or even a UC into the current playoff structure, some P5 league would lose out on roughly $50M. So again, NEVER.

We’ve yet to see a G5 team with a resume deserving of a CFP bid IMO. They aren’t going to give it up easily, which is why we would have to force their hand by going undefeated with a resume that is deserving. Scheduling to play teams like OSU and Notre Dame can help force their hand, especially if the AAC continues to improve as we have seen.

In the end, I go back to my point on asking what does it hurt? I believe we will still get into a NY6 bowl game if our only loss is on the road to a Top 5 team, so what’s the downside? Try for the CFP but happily take a NY6 bowl game.

Good points. I'm big on money being the answer as to why a lot of things are the way they are and that includes the playoff situation. However, they did set up a committee to make the final call and the committee members don't get extra money for rewarding P5s over a worthy G5 if/when there is one. I guess if you are conspiracy-minded you'll assume they'll all get fired if they were to give a slot in the playoffs to a G5 worthy team, but I'm skeptical of that. In terms of publicity and national interest, I think it would add even more to the process if they were to include a G5. Plus the committee knows they will be questioned by the press as well if the system seems rigged the same way they get questioned after the NCAA tourney picks - although this would get even more discussion in my opinion.
 
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2019 05:48 PM by Bearhawkeye.)
10-08-2019 05:43 PM
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Nobones Offline
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Post: #83
RE: NY6 road
Well now according to Real Time RPI we are in the 4th ranked football conference ahead of both the BIG 12 and the ACC.

Rank Conference (Teams) All Non-Conf Index Sos Sos Rk
1 Southeastern 14 46-27 (63%) 30-11 (73%) 30.73 51.34 3
Up 1 From Last Week +1 2 Big Ten 14 48-25 (66%) 31-8 (79%) 30.02 49.31 5
Down 1 From Last Week-1 3 Pacific-12 12 39-25 (61%) 24-10 (71%) 28.94 50.89 4
Up 2 From Last Week +2 4 American Athletic 12 40-22 (65%) 31-13 (70%) 27.82 49.04 6
Down 1 From Last Week-1 5 Big 12 10 35-17 (67%) 24-6 (80%) 27.73 52.06 1
Down 1 From Last Week-1 6 Atlantic Coast 14 45-28 (62%) 29-12 (71%) 25.16 51.75 2
Up 1 From Last Week +1 7 Mountain West 12 35-25 (58%) 26-16 (62%) 22.72 47.73 10
Down 1 From Last Week-1 8 Independents 6 14-19 (42%) 13-18 (42%) 22.16 47.25 11
9 Sun Belt 11 27-29 (48%) 21-23 (48%) 19.48 48.36 8
10 Conference USA 14 31-40 (44%) 20-29 (41%) 17.58 48.14 9
 
10-08-2019 08:08 PM
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C1ncy4Life Offline
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Post: #84
RE: NY6 road
(10-08-2019 08:08 PM)Nobones Wrote:  Well now according to Real Time RPI we are in the 4th ranked football conference ahead of both the BIG 12 and the ACC.

Rank Conference (Teams) All Non-Conf Index Sos Sos Rk
1 Southeastern 14 46-27 (63%) 30-11 (73%) 30.73 51.34 3
Up 1 From Last Week +1 2 Big Ten 14 48-25 (66%) 31-8 (79%) 30.02 49.31 5
Down 1 From Last Week-1 3 Pacific-12 12 39-25 (61%) 24-10 (71%) 28.94 50.89 4
Up 2 From Last Week +2 4 American Athletic 12 40-22 (65%) 31-13 (70%) 27.82 49.04 6
Down 1 From Last Week-1 5 Big 12 10 35-17 (67%) 24-6 (80%) 27.73 52.06 1
Down 1 From Last Week-1 6 Atlantic Coast 14 45-28 (62%) 29-12 (71%) 25.16 51.75 2
Up 1 From Last Week +1 7 Mountain West 12 35-25 (58%) 26-16 (62%) 22.72 47.73 10
Down 1 From Last Week-1 8 Independents 6 14-19 (42%) 13-18 (42%) 22.16 47.25 11
9 Sun Belt 11 27-29 (48%) 21-23 (48%) 19.48 48.36 8
10 Conference USA 14 31-40 (44%) 20-29 (41%) 17.58 48.14 9

I expected the Pac12 would be below the B12. I guess the B12 and ACC are both top heavy, with a lot of mediocre and bad teams after the top 1-2 teams.. Where as the Pac 12 is a lot more balanced, though without a dominant team.

I think the American has started to show it is closing the gap on the bottom of the P5. Especially the top half of the American can compete with all but the elite P5 Football teams. The American has clearly separated itself from the other Group of 5 conferences IMO.
 
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2019 10:23 PM by C1ncy4Life.)
10-08-2019 10:22 PM
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Post: #85
RE: NY6 road
Rpi is still a bad way to measure teams
 
10-09-2019 05:59 AM
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Bearhawkeye Offline
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Post: #86
RE: NY6 road
(10-09-2019 05:59 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Rpi is still a bad way to measure teams

Unless they changed the way they do things, I agree. But fwiw, I counted 7 of the 60 or so rankings Massey uses had the AAC 4th.
 
10-09-2019 05:09 PM
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RE: NY6 road
(10-08-2019 10:22 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 08:08 PM)Nobones Wrote:  Well now according to Real Time RPI we are in the 4th ranked football conference ahead of both the BIG 12 and the ACC.

Rank Conference (Teams) All Non-Conf Index Sos Sos Rk
1 Southeastern 14 46-27 (63%) 30-11 (73%) 30.73 51.34 3
Up 1 From Last Week +1 2 Big Ten 14 48-25 (66%) 31-8 (79%) 30.02 49.31 5
Down 1 From Last Week-1 3 Pacific-12 12 39-25 (61%) 24-10 (71%) 28.94 50.89 4
Up 2 From Last Week +2 4 American Athletic 12 40-22 (65%) 31-13 (70%) 27.82 49.04 6
Down 1 From Last Week-1 5 Big 12 10 35-17 (67%) 24-6 (80%) 27.73 52.06 1
Down 1 From Last Week-1 6 Atlantic Coast 14 45-28 (62%) 29-12 (71%) 25.16 51.75 2
Up 1 From Last Week +1 7 Mountain West 12 35-25 (58%) 26-16 (62%) 22.72 47.73 10
Down 1 From Last Week-1 8 Independents 6 14-19 (42%) 13-18 (42%) 22.16 47.25 11
9 Sun Belt 11 27-29 (48%) 21-23 (48%) 19.48 48.36 8
10 Conference USA 14 31-40 (44%) 20-29 (41%) 17.58 48.14 9

I expected the Pac12 would be below the B12. I guess the B12 and ACC are both top heavy, with a lot of mediocre and bad teams after the top 1-2 teams.. Where as the Pac 12 is a lot more balanced, though without a dominant team.

I think the American has started to show it is closing the gap on the bottom of the P5. Especially the top half of the American can compete with all but the elite P5 Football teams. The American has clearly separated itself from the other Group of 5 conferences IMO.

What I think helps us is we have 7 teams in the top 40 of the Power rankings and all but 1 team in the top 100. Connecticut is the only one that brings us down.
 
10-09-2019 05:32 PM
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RE: NY6 road
What hurts the Big 12 and the ACC is they only have 3 teams each in the top 40. Pac12 has 7 also.
 
10-09-2019 05:44 PM
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C1ncy4Life Offline
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RE: NY6 road
(10-09-2019 05:59 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Rpi is still a bad way to measure teams

To be honest, if you take away the top team in the ACC they probably aren’t as good. In the Big 12 if you take away the top 2 you have the same thing. The Pac 12 has several good teams, but no elite teams and it will be interesting to see how that conference plays out.

If teams in the AAC continue building on what they have then I think there could be a serious argument made in the next few years that they could jump ahead of one of those 3 conferences from top to bottom.
 
10-09-2019 07:28 PM
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RE: NY6 road
This is the first year the aac as a whole has really closed the on the field gap with the power conferences. The aac west may be objectively better than a couple p5 divisions this year. Aac has always been above other g5.
 
10-09-2019 07:33 PM
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doss2 Offline
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RE: NY6 road
App State now 5-0 with tonight's win over Louisiana ( not LSU ).

Could win out and features a win over NC. But SOS will be poor.
 
10-09-2019 11:18 PM
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RE: NY6 road
(10-09-2019 11:18 PM)doss2 Wrote:  App State now 5-0 with tonight's win over Louisiana ( not LSU ).

Could win out and features a win over NC. But SOS will be poor.

By the end of the season that win over NC is going to me little to nothing. My BIL is NC born and bred and an alum and he said they were picked to finish last in their division and to miss a bowl. They beat SC in their season opener. Everything after that is gravy which is good because moral victories may be the only kind they celebrate going forward.
 
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2019 04:28 AM by eroc.)
10-10-2019 04:28 AM
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Post: #93
RE: NY6 road
(10-10-2019 04:28 AM)eroc Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 11:18 PM)doss2 Wrote:  App State now 5-0 with tonight's win over Louisiana ( not LSU ).

Could win out and features a win over NC. But SOS will be poor.

By the end of the season that win over NC is going to me little to nothing. My BIL is NC born and bred and an alum and he said they were picked to finish last in their division and to miss a bowl. They beat SC in their season opener. Everything after that is gravy which is good because moral victories may be the only kind they celebrate going forward.

Has your BIL been paying attention to the ACC? NC is 3-3 and has a very good chance of winning all their remaining games outside of Virginia. The conference is very weak and NC still has Mercer on their schedule. They just need to find 2 more wins against powerhouses like Duke, Virginia Tech, NC State and Pitt to be bowl eligible.
 
10-10-2019 08:23 AM
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eroc Offline
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RE: NY6 road
(10-10-2019 08:23 AM)Banter Wrote:  
(10-10-2019 04:28 AM)eroc Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 11:18 PM)doss2 Wrote:  App State now 5-0 with tonight's win over Louisiana ( not LSU ).

Could win out and features a win over NC. But SOS will be poor.

By the end of the season that win over NC is going to me little to nothing. My BIL is NC born and bred and an alum and he said they were picked to finish last in their division and to miss a bowl. They beat SC in their season opener. Everything after that is gravy which is good because moral victories may be the only kind they celebrate going forward.

Has your BIL been paying attention to the ACC? NC is 3-3 and has a very good chance of winning all their remaining games outside of Virginia. The conference is very weak and NC still has Mercer on their schedule. They just need to find 2 more wins against powerhouses like Duke, Virginia Tech, NC State and Pitt to be bowl eligible.

i haven't talked to him about NC since the SC game, but i believe they are going to need three Ws out of Virginia, Duke, Virginia Tech, NC State and Pitt (Mercer is FCS so i don't know if a W over them would count towards bowl eligibility). Do you think they'll be favored in any of those games outside of Mercer? if so it'll be slight.
 
10-10-2019 07:15 PM
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